Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 56. (Read 12658 times)

There are some good fights tonight in the UFC, You have been doing a great job on the UFC as I just came across this thread today. With one of the fights I'm going to have to go against you and pick Brendan Allen only because he has the experience at this level but I do think it will be a close fight and may the best Man win and good luck to everyone betting.

First up in the featherweight division, we have a matchup between Youssef Zalal (8-2) and Jordan Griffin (18-7). Youssef Zalal impressed mightily in his UFC debut vs. Austin Lingo at UFC 247. He controlled distance well, dictated where the fight took place and improved leaps and bounds from what we saw from his time on the regional scene. Zalal measures distance well with his jab and stays very calm and relaxed and will throw in some sharp in and out movement to mix it up. While we know he has good striking, what we do not see discussed much is his grappling, which is far better than most are giving him credit for. Jordan Griffin on the other hand has some decent UFC experience as this will be his fifth fight with the promotion. While Griffin has shown signs of high-level MMA, it has been in short bursts, and the majority of the time he finds ways to disappoint. He will need to attempt to slow down the pace of this fight, and work to get inside the pocket as the longer he stands on the outside with Zalal, the more obvious the skill gap in that area will become. Griffin will have to incorporate at least the threat of a takedown here and there or we believe it is only a matter of time before the shots start landing with consistency for Zalal. At 30 years of age, Griffin also does not seem to improve at all from fight to fight, but the 23-year-old Youssef Zalal is clearly showing signs of improvement and has some serious potential. We believe round 1 may be competitive, while a fresh Griffin could get this fight to the ground - but as the fight moves on and Zalal starts to stick and move, he should be able to take this one by late stoppage, if not on the judges' scorecards. We believe Zalal should be more in the -165 range and for that reason will take the value as the small favorite.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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LOST - Take Kyle Daukaus over Brendan Allen (9:10 p.m., Saturday, June 27th)

In the middleweight division we will see undefeated Kyle Daukaus (9-0) who will be making his UFC debut as he faces-off against Brendan Allen (13-4). Daukaus is a very good grappler with a solid submission game which can be seen by his 8 submission wins, with only 1 making it to the judges' scorecards. The issue is that Daukaus's wrestling is average at best, which he really needs to work on considering a submission is his main path to victory. It has not been an issue yet, but when fighting at this level, it's a whole different ball game. Brendan Allen is by far the better wrestler here and has more power, although one could argue Daukaus has the more technical striking and may be able to win minute by minute exchanges. Allen is shaping up to be a solid fighter, who is well-rounded and comfortable no matter where the fight takes place. We believe the striking ability of Daukaus is being drastically overlooked here which is the reason for the current market price. It is hard to gauge considering we have not seen Kyle fight at this level yet, but if he proves to be the better striker as we expect, and Allen begins to wrestle he could be in a lot of trouble. Allen won't be scared to try and get this fight to the mat as Daukus hasn't landed any submission from his back yet, but Allen's top-game is not that strong and we could absolutely see a reversal, back-take and submission win for Daukus. There are some unknowns here so we must remain careful, but this is a fight that quite honestly could be closer to a pick'em so there may be tremendous value at +250.

Soligorsk has, in my opinion, the second-best offense in Belarus. They are just No. 3 in goals because Dinamo Brest has been going bonkers while scoring 15 goals in its last four matches after just 13 goals in its previous 10 league tilts. Shakhtyor put two in against BATE and then, despite being in a letdown spot, tallied against a tough Rukh Brest defense. It has been a while since they have really gone to town, though. From April 29 to May 22 (five matches) they scored 4 goals three times and hung 14 goals in those five matches. I think that they will get three goals of their own here against a terrible Minsk side. This team has gotten throttled by the top teams in the table, allowing 6 goals to Brest, 5 to Zhodino and 3 to BATE. This is also a revenge spot for Shakhtyor. They actually lost 1-0 to this terrible Minsk side in the first meeting back on Nov. 24. Shakhtyor took a red card 31 minutes in and Minsk scored in the 79th minute. Shakhtyor will want revenge and they will get it in spades. I have 3-1 here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Jung Chan-heon has been on a roll of late winning three straight games and giving up just 5 runs in his last 19 2/3 innings. Richardo Pinto has not won a game in his last three starts and was already pounded by LG once this season giving up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Weekend Soccer Bonanza  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take Zenit St. Petersburg -1.5 goals over Kryla Sovetov (1:30 p.m., Friday, June 26th)
PUSH - Take UNDER 3.0 GOALS between Zenit St. Petersburg and Kryla Sovetov (1:30 p.m., Friday, June 26th)
We need to win by two or more goals.

Zenit has a +38 goal differential. They have outscored their opponents by a 5-to-1 margin on the season and they had averaged over two goals per game while running roughshod through the Russian Premier League. So yeah, I expect them to bury the last-place team here. This is Zenit's first home game since the hiatus. Their last home game was a 7-1 win. It won't be that ugly, for sure. But this is not a team that takes it easy against overmatched opponents. In league play sthis yar thye have wins by 5-0, 6-1, 4-0, 7-1 and 4-0 (their last time out). They won't be looking ahead; not in their first match back. FK Krylya is way out of its depth. They were in the second division two years ago. Last season they finished in the relegation playoffs. The last time they were in the Premier before that (2016-17) they finished an embarrassing 15th. They lost 4-2 in their first match back to a Grozny team that is in 14th place and is awful. There's just now way around it; these guys are trash. And I think Zenit will put them in their place.

POSTPONED -Take Krasnodar over Orenburg (7:00 a.m., Saturday, June 27th)
POSTPONED -Take UNDER 2.5 GOALS between Krasnodar and Orenburg (1:30 p.m., Friday, June 26th)
This is three-way betting. A draw is a loss.

Last year Krasnodar finished No. 1 in the Russian Premier League with a +32 goal differential. That was better than Zenit and better than Lokomotiv. But they finished in third place. This year they are +14, a long way away from Zenit's +38 differential. But they are again in third place. The bottom line is that these guys are better than their win-loss shows. They have 8 draws in 22 matches this year. But when they beat people they are capable of turning out their lights. This is their first match back, so they should have some rust. But they are facing an Orenburg team that has been a mess. By some Act of God they only lost 1-0 to Lokomotiv in their first match back. But they didn't play well at all, blowing an 11 v. 10 opportunity by taking two red cards in the second half. (Lokomotiv also missed a penalty kick.) Orenburg is a mess. They are -11 on the season and are No. 15 in the 16-team league. Last year they played way, way over their heads after promotion from the second division. But they are coming back to earth this year and this should be another L for them today.

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take OVER 2.5 GOALS between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa (7:30 a.m., Saturday, June 27th)

Aston Villa has been the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing 59 goals on the season. They've actually been OK since the restart, conceding just three goals in three matches. But I think the dam is going to break here. Wolverhampton is just itching for a breakout. Adama Traora has been masterful the last two matches, setting up three goals. I think he'll get one of his own here and I can see both sides punching in multiple opportunities. Aston Villa has been sneaky-productive, scoring in 8 of 11 matches. I think they can find one and Wolverhampton can find the net twice to push this one 'over'.

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GERMAN BUNDESLIGA
LOST -  Take Eintracht Frankfurt -1.5 GOALS over Paderborn (9:30 a.m., Saturday, June 27th)

Paderborn has embraced the horror. They are being relegated and are by far the worst team in this league. Eintracht is not. They are a decent squad that's played well over the last few weeks. They have won two of three (taking a draw in that third match) after a tight 2-1 loss to Bayern Munich. Frankfurt is 4-2-1 in their last seven matches and clearly the better side. Paderborn has nothing to play for so I won't be surprised if they are a no show.

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SPAIN LA LIGA
WIN - Take Athletic Bilbao -1.5 GOALS over Mallorca (8:00 a.m., Saturday, June 27th)
WIN - Take Athletic Bilbao ML over Mallorca (8:00 a.m., Saturday, June 27th)

This Bilbao squad is not bad. They put up a healthy fight against Barcelona earlier this week, losing 1-0. Prior to that they had been playing well since the restart, pulling five points in three matches. They are in 10th place, but are just six points off the No. 6 spot and a slot in Europa. Picking up three points here against a trash Mallorca side is not at all out of the question and should be expected. Mallorca is in a letdown spot after going toe-to-toe with Real Madrid. They should've lost that match about 4-1 but instead covered the number (+2.5) in a 2-0 loss. I don't think they will be as sharp against a lower team here. But Bilbao is better than their position in the table suggests and they should get this one in convincing fashion.

By all accounts, Im had a very average opening round for the 22 year old. Im fired a two under 68 yesterday which was a five stroke improvement from last week's 73 at the RBC Heritage, a course that was not set up for a long hitter like Im. Already a winner this season, Im also has six Top Ten finishes and is ranked 5th in the FedEx Cup rankings. Last season Im shot a 69 in round two on his way to a T21 finish at the 2019 Travelers. This young player is impressive and after last week's disappointment, we expect Im thrive on Friday. For Garcia, the 40 year old rolled back time with an impressive six under 64 and is currently T4 for the tournament. But Garcia has struggled a bit this season replicating strong performances day after day. In all but two of Garcia's rounds in the 60s this season he has shot a higher score with last week being the exception, shooting 65 in the last three rounds. Again, we do not see Garcia going low on Friday. Im is hungry and a two under will be seen as a disappointment.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Juventus rebounded from a penalty shootout loss in the Coppa Italia that saw Napoli lift the Cup over the current league leaders. Juventus are 1-1-1 since the restart and are coming off a 2-0 win at 11th place Bologna where they needed a first half penalty goal to change the direction of the match. Juventus did struggle to break down the host in the second half and though they did win, we expect the Juve to overlook struggling Lecce who are in a relegation battle. At home, Juve have only one win in their last six of 3 goals or more. For Lecce, they have struggled in their last three matches. Unlike Juve, this is only their second match since the restart. They are coming off a 4-1 loss to AC Milan and have now lost three in a row. This losing streak has Lecce in 18th place on 25 points, level with 17 place Genoa and only a point behind Sampdoria and safety. These two drew 1-1 in October at Lecce, their first meeting since a 1-1 draw in May 2012. In seven previous meetings, Juve are 3-1-3, but have only beaten Lecce by 3 or more goals once over that span.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I'm STILL ROLLING with Dan Straily! He's due. He has been outstanding this year, which shouldn't be a surprise considering that he was a very solid MLB pitcher over the last five years. He has just a 2.10 ERA but is just 1-2 on the season and hasn't recorded a win since May 10. He has only allowed four earned runs in his last five starts, posting a stellar 1.06 ERA over the last month. His lone bad start in KBO this year? It came against KIA back on May 20 when he gave up five runs in five innings. Go with the home team and the stronger starter.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

What a Premier League matchup today at Stamford Bridge when Chelsea welcomes Manchester City. Chelsea is coming off a come from behind win over Aston Villa so the Blues have a bit of momentum coming into this big pitch. Man City is coming off back-to-back home wins when they outscored their opponents 8-0 but I see a very tight pitch today and wouldn't shock me to see a 1-1 Draw.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Inter Milan are holding steady in third place in Serie A on 57 points, just five points out of second Lazio and six points clear of fourth place Atalanta. The host dominated Sampdoria in the first half, going up 2-0 at the half, but their offense struggled to find additional success and closed out the match with a 2-1 win. This was their first win in their last three after losing their final match before the shutdown 2-0 at league leaders Juventus and drawing 1-1 at sixth place Napoli in the Coppa Italia. Inter have conceded a goal in nine of their last ten matches and have just one win of 2 or more goals in their last 16 matches. They face a Sassuolo side that is currently in 12th place on 32 points, seven clear of the relegation zone. They are coming off an ugly 4-1 loss at fourth place Atalanta, but are 3-2-0 in their last five matches. They will have some significant confidence entering this match after winning four of their last six against Inter and coming back from 4-1 down in the 71st minute of their last meeting to loss 4-3 at home. They know they can beat Inter at home, three wins away, and they know they can keep pace with this side. Expect a let down from the host, while the visitors see a great deal of success.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Bournemouth is a mess. Their best player just left the team, they are woefully undermanned because of injuries and expiring contracts, and right now they look like a team that is just going to be limping toward the finish. They are trying to fight relegation. But I don't think they will be able to. They got handled 2-0 by Crystal Palace and there is a much larger talent discrepancy in this match. Bournemouth has four losses in their last five matches and seven in their last 10. They aren't even scumming out any draws. Wolverhampton looked sharp in its return against West Ham. They were clinical in a 2-0 win and they found a new, lethal weapon in Adama Traore. Wolverhampton is right in the mix for a top spot in the Premier and a slot in the Champions League. Wolverhampton hasn't thrown four straight shutouts at home since 1979, so there's a chance they will concede a goal here. And there has been three or more goals in 10 of 12 Bournemouth matches (and seven of eight). Really, 1-1 is the only thing that can screw us here. So I'm hedging just a touch with a small play on the draw to get us a little buy back on the total. But if this one is 3-0 or 3-1 like I think it will be then we are going to bank a healthy score.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I'm rolling with Dan Straily. He has been outstanding this year, which shouldn't be a surprise considering that he was a very solid MLB pitcher over the last five years. He has just a 2.10 ERA but is just 1-2 on the season and hasn't recorded a win since May 10. He has only allowed four earned runs in his last five starts, posting a stellar 1.06 ERA over the last month. His lone bad start in KBO this year? It came against KIA back on May 20 when he gave up five runs in five innings. He will make adjustments and will want revenge and I absolutely think he's due to pick up a W. KIA blew a game yesterday, giving up three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to lose 4-3, and I think that could definitely carry over into this game. Go with the home team and the hot starter.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Wednesday Baseball Bonanza  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

CANCELLED DUE TO WEATHER - Take Doosan over SK Wyvern (5:30 a.m., Wednesday, June 24th)

Doosan is creeping up on the NC Dinos and I think that they will keep the pressure on with another win here. SK is awful and they are just 12-30 on the season. There's no reason not to bet against them just about every day, as this team just continues to struggle to score.

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CANCELLED DUE TO WEATHER - Take NC Dinos -1.5 runs over KT Wiz (5:30 a.m., Wednesday, June 24th)

I think that Mike Wright is absolutely going to bounce back here. He allowed seven runs in six innings in his last start. Other than that he's been great this year, including a dominating start over KT back on May 13. He will make adjustments and is backed by one of the best lineups in the league. They should get this one.

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WIN - Take Samsung Lions -1.5 runs over Hanwha Eagles (5:30 a.m., Wednesday, June 24th)

This play should need no explanation at this point. Hanwha just continues to get buried on a daily basis. Samsung's offense has been due for a breakout and this is the week to get it and get themselves back over .500.

Tottenham is finally getting healthy. Lucas and Dele Alli are both back in the fold and after a season full of injuries this team finally looks to be at full strength in the attack. West Ham defenders have been talking some trash about Hotspur strikers Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son and I think that West Ham will get a top effort from both players. Tottenham is a team that I expect to play better in the restart. Not just because they are healthier but because they have had some time to cool off and to refocus. Tottenham has to be looing forward to a fresh start here in the restart. They haven't won a match since Feb. 16. They are desperate. They are due. Tottenham has finished in third place in the Premier in each of the last two seasons. They are currently in eighth place, but they have a +7 goal differential, which reeks of hard luck team. Despite being in 8th they are still right in the thick of a battle for Europa qualification so they will be motivated. West Ham didn't play altogether poorly against Wolverhampton, but they look a 2-0 loss and have just one league win since Jan. 2.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

It is the Lions turn to get healthy and fatten up their win/loss record. Hanwha will send Chad Bell to the mound, he is 0-3 with an 8.44 E.R.A. He has lost three straight games (decisions) and given up 18 runs in those 3 outings.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Ernesto is one of the best in nation as it relates to bounce-backs and getting revenge and he had beaten Giron a while back but recently Giron got revenge and beat him 5-7, 5-7. Getting 2.5 games is not a bad idea here as Ernesto could indeed win the set and getting plus value on a player who could win Outright is always a plus. We like Ernesto here to make some changes and Marcos did beat Nakashima, Johnson and does come off a loss to Zachary Svajda, but we think Ernesto will battle him hard here with the revenge angle.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I think that this is a strong spot for Juventus. They have the major advantage of playing two matches since a three-month break. They didn't play particularly well in either match, but they are still in first place in Serie A and they are a top tier team. They are also coming off a loss in the Italy Cup championship match to Napoli, falling in penalty kicks. So I don't think that they are going to be in the mood to screw around with a team that they are clearly better than. Bologna is just kind of a replacement-level squad. They finished 15th two years ago and were 10th last year despite an -8 goal differential. I think that Bologna is going to be a little rusty and it is going to take them a half just to get things going a bit. They are already up against it here facing a better team. I don't think they will be up to the task.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Hey tokeweed, thanks for dropping by on my thread. I'm really glad that you liked my write-ups. We'll be having some predictions (with write-ups also) for the upcoming UFC fights as well so stay tuned. I also do NBA, Baseball and other sports. I'll be posting some picks today for Korean Baseball so don't miss that one out.

Best of luck to both of us and to all that follow my picks. 

Pretty good write up on the UFC, JanpriX.  Keep it up!  I'll be learning from you..  Can't wait for the next one. 

I see you do football too.  Good good.  I need help on both. 

Inter Milan sit in third place in the Italy top division with a significant number of matches remaining. The Italian giants are eight points back of second place Lazio and six points ahead of fourth place Atalanta, holding onto one of the four Champions League places out of Italy. This break could not have come at a better time for Inter having gone winless in their last two and were 2-2-1 in their last five, with their only wins in the Europa League. They restart the season with two matches at home as they will host 16th place Sampdoria on Sunday and 11th place Sassuolo on Wednesday. We expect Inter to come out flat and over confident. This is a great chance for Sampdoria to possible put at least another point between them and the relegation zone. The visitors are currently on 26 points, one point above both 15th and 16th place Genoa and Lecce. Sampdoria did win their last match before the shutdown, 2-1 at home over seventh place Hellas Verona. They have won two of their last three and have the same 2-2-1 record as Inter over their last five matches. Inter have won five in a row, including an early season 3-1 win at Sampdoria. As unpredictable as the restart has been for most big clubs, this is a great chance to grab another underdog winner.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.