Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 57. (Read 12658 times)

Belshina has embraced the horror. They are the worst team in the BPL and they know they are headed for relegation and back to the second division. By some act of god they won a match last week against Energetik - a sizeable upset - and that was their first win of the league season. They haven't even been able to draw many teams, taking just three in their previous 12 matches before the win. They aren't going to do it again here. BATE is by far the best team in the league and they are coming off a tough draw with Shakhtyor Soligorsk, the league's No. 2 side. They have to feel good about that point and about keeping their two-point lead in the table. They aren't going to fall down here against a bottom feeder. BATE really hasn't thrashed anyone in a while. They have taken back-to-back draws and have been dodgy in their last three matches. I expect a top effort though, and they are more than capable. In April and May they won matches 3-0, 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 5-3, 3-0 and 3-1. They are the highest scoring and most capable team in the league and I think that they are due to get back into the win column. And I think they'll do it in a big way.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Weekend Soccer Bonanza  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

LOST - Take West Ham over Wolverhampton (12:30 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)
LOST - Take Draw between West Ham and Wolverhampton (12:30 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)
WIN - Take Under 2.5 between West Ham and Wolverhampton (12:30 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)

This is a value play on West Ham. Last year these teams were pretty close in the table. Wolverhampton was 7th and West Ham was 10th, and they were pretty close in goal differential (+1 and -3). This season there is a larger discrepancy in the standings but I don't think there's as big of a difference on the field. Two years ago Wolverhampton was in the second division and I think they have been a big-time overachiever this year. I also think that they are going to be a team on the slide here in the restart. I think that Arsenal and Tottenham will eventually overtake them, so the value is betting against this bunch. I'll play the fat odds.

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WIN - Take Lokomotiv Moscow over Orenburg (9:00 a.m., Sunday, June 21st)
WIN - Take Under 2.5 between Lokomotiv Moscow and Orenburg (9:00 a.m., Sunday, June 21st)

Lokomotiv is the defending Premier League champions. They are in second place this year and have struggled a bit, posting just a +7 goal differential. But I still think that this is a solid side. And after months of rest they should be ready to roll over a bad Orenburg side. Orenburg was promoted just two years ago. They massively overachieved last season, finishing seventh despite the fact that they scored just 39 goals in 30 matches. They are in 13th place and locked in a relegation battle this year and I think they will keep sliding. Look, we have the defending champions from the country's largest city. These guys haven't played in three months and are now being let back onto the pitch. There is a major motivational edge on the side of Moscow. They aren't going to be screwing around here and they are just the better team. I expect a clinical effort and a 1-0 win for the home side.

Next up in the women's flyweight division, Lauren Murphy (12-4) will face-off vs. Roxanne Modafferi (24-16). Let us get it right out in the open - this is an ugly fight and probably one that will be extremely boring. Both women have such an odd style to them, especially Modafferi who has almost no athletic ability, with god-awful striking. To her credit however, she does possess some serious toughness and ability to press her opponents up against the cage and wear on them until she is able to secure a takedown, at which point she is able to utilize some fairly high level grappling. She does not finish a ton by submission but her top control is solid and quite smothering which has allowed her to win 15 of her 24 victories by decision. Lauren Murphy on the other hand is the same, but in reverse. She will look to get it done on the feet as 8 of her 12 wins have come by knockout, yet none by submission. Both women are riding a small wave of momentum, as Roxanne is coming off a big win against highly touted Maycee Barber, whilst Lauren Murphy is coming off two straight wins vs Mara Romero Borella, and a very tough Andrea Lee. Murphy did very well in both fights avoiding the takedown and countering with beautiful strikes. We believe she will be able to do the same here against Roxanne. She should be able to keep it standing, ward off the grappling and wrestling exchanges, and put a real hurting on Roxanne. In our opinion, we don't see a real path to victory for Modafferi, besides a mistake from Murphy or if she slows down as the fight progresses, but either way, -105 is a huge steal in our opinion, and we would price this closer to -200.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Crystal Palace to beat Bournemouth, we are simply taking the better team in this matchup. Palace is a few points away from safety and would like to ensure that safety as quick as possible. Prior to the break, they had three-straight 1-0 wins which tell us that their defensive effort is starting to finally show some results. As for Bournemouth, they have only won 3 of their last 18 league matches and have gone 12 straight EPL games without keeping a clean sheet. They have lost the last two PL meetings against CP and were outscored 6-3 in those two meetings. Crystal Palace is finally healthy after the lengthy stoppage and should be full of motivation to get these crucial three points.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs Volkov  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

WIN - Take Austin Hubbard over Max Rohskopf (5:10 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)

Kicking off UFC on ESPN 11, we have a 155-pound matchup between Austin Hubbard (11-4) and UFC newcomer, Max Rohskopf (5-0). This is an interesting fight... Austin Hubbard enters this fight off a full camp, although was preparing for a different fighter, and has some UFC experience, while Max Rohskopf will be in his debut with extremely short notice. Austin Hubbard is a low volume fighter, but understands his opponent's strengths well, and works hard to ensure the fight moves at his pace. This will be a challenge against Max Rohskopf who is a very solid wrestler, and chain grappler that will look for submissions at all-times. There is no doubt in the limited tape we have of Max, he looks like he could have some potential, and we understand the thought process behind setting him as the favorite here. The issue is, he is very raw, with below average striking, is coming off such short notice and seems to have some cardio questions that need to be answered. This is such a coin-flip that it is hard to gauge what will happen. If Max Rohskopf is not able to get a first round submission, which is absolutely possible, this could start to get a little hairy. Hubbard is a decent fighter that efficiently picks his shots and should be able to maintain his methodical pace throughout all three-rounds. Let us hope to see the stool at the end of the first round, at which point the fight should slowly shift towards Hubbard. For this reason and the many unknowns for Rohskopf, we will take a shot on the dog price being offered.

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WIN - Take Jim Miller over Roosevelt Roberts (8:10 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)

Kicking off the main card In the mens lightweight division, 36 year old veteran, Jim Miller (31-14) will take on 26 year old Roosevelt Roberts (10-1). Jim Miller is an absolute legend in the MMA community and has been around for quite some time as his UFC debut came all the way back in 2008. While Miller has never been a championship contender, he has always been someone who is ready for war and will test every aspect of his opponent's skillset. We understand Miller isn't quite what he used to be though, as he's ageing and has faced issues with Lyme Disease which has clearly caused a decline in his overall athletic ability. However, he is still tough as nails, and is an exceedingly difficult and a dangerous matchup for anyone. His opponent, Roosevelt Roberts is a young, but incredibly talented fighter with a solid, well-rounded game. He is raw but has a high ceiling and will look for submissions in any scenario whether standing, on the ground or in the clinch. The issue here for Roberts is it will be very hard for him to do much in regard to submissions vs. a very high-level black belt in Jim Miller who has only been submitted 3 times in 46 fights. Those submission losses came at the hands of 3 elite grapplers (Charles Oliveira, Nate Diaz, and Michael Chiesa). Miller has been a little more aggressive lately which we like for this matchup, and he will come out guns-blazing in Round 1. Roberts has not faced anyone with the experience, yet calculated recklessness that Jim will bring. He will be coming in here looking for the finish and we expect him to have much success. However, we do understand the pricing on this fight, and the reason for setting Miller in the +200 range. If he is not able to do some serious damage early, or get Roosevelt out of there, he will gas, and completely fall off. The longer this fight goes the more Roberts will be able to take over and will be able to start to dominate and it could get ugly. Regardless, we will take a shot on the 'out the gate' livewire that is Jim Miller who we believe has enough left in the tank to make this a lot closer than the betting line indicates.

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LOST - Take Lyman Good over Belal Muhammad (8:40 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)

Next up in the welterweight division, we have a matchup between Lyman Good (21-5) and Belal Muhammad (16-3). Excellent job, UFC matchmakers. This is a great fight! Lyman Good has flown somewhat under the radar in the UFC for whatever reason, but make no mistake, he has huge potential. He has solid striking, hits with extreme power and has very underrated wrestling. He is patient in his approach, utilizes his game-plans well and takes advantage of his opponent's mistakes. Good is tough also... he has only been finished once in his career and that was by submission to Damian Maia, which as we know, means almost nothing. Who hasn't been finished by submission at the hands of Maia? On the other side of the Octagon we will see Belal Muhammad, who from a technical standpoint is a little more well-rounded, especially when it comes to the grappling who will pursue the takedown and look to grind his way to the judges' scorecards (11 of his 16 wins have come by decision). Both fighters are durable and have shown the ability to take a shot, but Belal is becoming very hittable and while that chin has held up so far (only 1 KO loss) that could change quickly if he allows Lyman Good to start unleashing combos. This is simple to break down... if Good can keep this fight standing, he should be able to win this fight from a damage and power standpoint. His strikes are a little more crisp and powerful than Belal's and that should look good on the judges' scorecards, if it gets that far. It's a close fight and depending on where the majority of this fight takes place should determine the winner, but we believe this is a fight where Lyman comes through and really puts the welterweight division on notice. He has something special and we believe he should be priced more in the -140/-150 range.

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WIN - Take Josh Emmett over Shane Burgos (9:40 p.m., Saturday, June 20th)

In the co-main event of the evening, Josh Emmett (15-2) will face-off against Shane Burgos (13-1). This is an interesting fight. Burgos comes from Tiger Schulmann MMA and anyone that comes from that camp has extremely good striking and movement, and that is no different here with Burgos. The big issue for Burgos is that, for whatever reason, he is becoming more and more hittable as the fights move on. He likes to showboat, drop his hands, and leave his chin out there, but we are not convinced he's good, or natural enough at that particular style to make it work long-term without getting clipped. Now, his opponent Josh Emmet has some serious power. He will head hunt and when he connects, he will shut your lights out. It is important to note that this event is still at the UFC apex facility in Vegas which has a smaller octagon. This will make it all the harder for Burgos to move around and utilize his slick footwork to avoid the power shots of Emmett. The one thing that we believe is being overlooked when pricing this fight, is the wrestling of Josh Emmett. He absolutely can land takedowns, push Burgos against the fence or change levels and hit something in open space. Burgos is the better technical striker, but Emmett has far more ways to win, and end this fight. The wrong man is favored in our opinion and for that reason we will take the value on Emmett. This would be a bigger play if we trusted the IQ level of Josh, as we would not be surprised at all if he just kept looking for that one big haymaker without ever considering the wrestling.

The Eagles have been more competitive in their last two games but still lost each one by 2 runs. They are due to get blown out tonight and thus we will lay the run line fading them for the millionth straight time! The pitching match-ups keeps the run line price respectable for tonight.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Soccer Bonanza  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

LOST - Take Barcelona over Sevilla (4:00 p.m., Friday, June 19th)

This play is a little lower than it should be because I think it might be a trap line. This is tremendous value on the top team in La Liga. Sevilla is No. 3 in the league, but their +12 goal differential is absolutely nothing compared to Barcelona's +38. Barcelona has won three matches in a row, including both of its games since the restart, and the only team to beat them in their last eight matches is Real Madrid (another top tier team).

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LOST - Take Leicester City over Watford (7:30 a.m., Saturday, June 20th)

I see a mismatch here. Watford is -17 in goal differential this year and is on the cusp of the relegation battle. Leicester has a +30 goal differential and is third in the table. They are fighting for a slot in the Champions League and they deserve their slot among the top teams in the league. I have no problem betting on them to prove it.

Again not much analysis is needed for this play. The Eagles are terrible and their 9-7 loss this morning was not as close as it would seem (trailed 9-4 in the bottom of the 9th). Now they must travel on short notice to face the best team in the KBO. The Dinos have lost two straight games so it is there turn to get healthy and fatten their record. It starts tonight and we will lay the run line price.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I'm backing the road team, Real Sociedad on Thursday. Both teams looked rusty as they restarted their seasons last week but Sociedad is the real deal. They were held to a draw by Osasuna but it was clear that Sociedad was the much better squad, they just couldn't get that separating goal. That's how it works sometimes but with a game under their belt following the shut-down, I expect Sociedad to flex their muscle against an out-manned opponent. Not only is Alaves not quite at their opponents' level in this one but they're a banged-up soccer team and won't have their starting goaltender on Thursday. Sociedad has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, out-scoring Alaves 8-2 and they've taken 3 straight at this venue. They've also won 3 of their last 4 road games overall, scoring 9 goals along the way. Sociedad is playing for a 4th place finish and all that comes with it and can't afford a loss against a beatable opponent. Meanwhile, Alaves is simply looking to stay in the league and avoid relegation. We'll back the better squad and play Real Sociedad on Thursday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

If it is not broke to do fix it. We have hit several straight wins fading Hanwha and expect more of the same on Thursday morning. This is another pitching mismatch, as Tyler Wilson is 1-0 against Hanwha this season with a 0.00 E.R.A. Jang Shi-hwan has an E.R.A. of 7.48 and has not win a game in over 40 days. He has not been going deep and been getting blasted in this outing. Hanwha has not been covering the run line either of late despite a double header sweep of Sunday there is nothing good you can say about this team. Teams continue to fatten their record against them, and LG will be no different.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Arsenal to cover the +1.5 goal line, let's face it, Man City would have preferred if the EPL season was canceled so they could focus all their efforts on the UCL which is set to resume in August. City simply can't catch Liverpool for the EPL title and as such will likely come out of this break with very little motivation, and we see them using this as a training match to get their match fitness back under them. Arsenal is in the same boat, but they at least have a fighting chance of catching the fifth and fourth spots and qualifying for Europe. Arsenal was finally starting to turn around their form before the stoppage having won three straight PL games and going unbeaten in five. We've seen it throughout Germany and Spain with the restart, teams are rusty and blowouts are very rare with the exception of the top teams playing the bottom teams. These two teams are competitive and as such, this should be a one-goal game either way.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Easy cash with the run line on Tuesday and expect more of the same on Wednesday.
Nuff said, just put your money against Eagles and fatten up your wallet.  

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Espanyol is coming off a rare 2-0 win. It's rare because they've only won five matches this entire season. I don't see it happening again for them here. They won last game against a bad Alaves team because Alaves took one of the more ridiculous red cards you will ever see, losing their starting goalie 19 minutes into it because he grabbed the ball well outside the box. Espanyol got to play man-up for the rest of the match and still barely punched through two scores. Getafe is a solid side that is locked into a fierce battle for a spot in either the Champions League or Europa. They are coming off a tough loss to Granada in their first game back, letting a 1-0 lead slip into a 2-1 loss in the last 20 minutes of that one. I think they will be chomping at the bit to get back on the pitch - especially facing the worst team in the table that also happens to be in a letdown spot after a rare win. Espanyol has played 28 league matches this season. Do you know how many times they have pulled points in consecutive games? Twice. I don't see them getting a win or a draw here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

NC and Kiwoom were finally able to snap out of their offensive funk over the weekend. Now it is Samsung's turn after leaving an incredible amount of runners on base last week. Doosan never needs an excuse to put runs on the board and I think they will hammer Baek Jung-hyun. He has a 7.20 ERA and hasn't been good at all this year. I think that this one will sail this total.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I hope you didn't blink over the weekend but the Hanwha Eagles won back-to-back games and Tuesday they look for 3-Straight. The LG Twins have won 6 out 10 and with Twins throwing out Juan Chan-heon I see the Twins stopping the Eagles winning streak.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Look, Sociedad is far and away the better team in this matchup as they sit fourth compared to 11th for their opponent. Sociedad has won four of their last five games and has given up just three goals in that span. Osasuna doesn't score very many goals, especially away from home, so we expect Sociedad to dictate possession and take the play to the visitors. Sociedad is unbeaten in 8 of their 11 home games when they enter as favorite and we like them to grab an early goal against a team whose given up the first goal in 10 of their La Liga games. Sociedad is also 5W, 2D against Osasuna in all competes and we expect them to add another win to those totals.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

First, I think the layoff was good thing for these guys. All these high-profile players on Real go full throttle year round between clubs, national teams, etc. I think the break has done these guys good and the stars will come back fresh and ready to go. Second, these restarts are major emotional milestones for these soccer-crazy countries. There may not be fans in the stadium, but the players still feel the emotion and importance of these moments. And that's going to bring out their best. That leads into the third part: this game is just a total mismatch. There's no looking ahead. There are no letdown situations. Eibar is going to get Real Madrid's best, most focused effort. And they are pretty much powerless to stop it. Eibar has won just once since mid-January. The last time they faced a top tier team they lost 5-0 to Barcelona. Madrid was not playing well before the break, losing three of their last four matches. They are still in a nip-tuck battle with Barcelona for the league championship and Real wants to get off on the right foot here. This one should be a bloodbath similar to Barcelona's 4-0 win over Mallorca yesterday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

It was only a matter of time before Kiwoom put some runs on the board. That explosion had been a week in the making and they answered the bell with 18 runs. I don't expect them to do that again here but this line is high for a reason. Kiwoom is going with Jo Young-gun on the mound, and the 21-year-old is not up to the task. He has just four appearances in his KBO career and he's given up 7 runs in 9.1 innings. Not great. The Dinos are going with Kim Jin-ho and he is making his KBO debut. I don't expect it to go well for him either and I see another softball game breaking out between these two teams.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Next up in the featherweight division, Andre Filli (20-7) will take on Charles Jourdain (10-2). Jourdain is 1-1 in the UFC and is still a very raw talent at the young age of 24. He has potential there is no doubt, but this seems far too much, far too soon. In his UFC debut fight against Desmond Green, he was taken down 4 times at will, and seemed comfortable to work from his back. This shows confidence in his own ability to lock up a submission, but the proof is in the pudding, and he was not able to do anything in route to losing a unanimous decision. Jourdain bounced back well and looked good vs. Doo-ho Choi, including what seemed to be improved take-down defense, but we must remember who he was fighting. Choi has nowhere near the wrestling chops of Desmond Green, nor the skill set of a fighter like Andre Fili. Jourdain likes to push the pace and come forward aggressively. The issue is that Fili is far too seasoned and experienced to fall in to playing that game with Jourdain. Fili uses his technical striking to gain inside position, which leads to his wrestling which in our opinion, is vastly underrated. Looking at this fight from a match-up perspective, we do not believe Charles Jourdain has many paths to victory outside of catching Fili with a power-shot. That will not be easy considering the solid defense and durability of Fili. Andre will be able to stand with him and outpoint him, and then land takedowns without much resistance. We think this should be an easy fight for Fili, and while -220 seems heavy, we will argue he should be nearer the -400 mark here. We believe the reason for this price is insurance just in-case Fili isn't able to land takedowns and Jourdain really has improved his takedown defense. However, even if that is the case, we think Fili should also be better in the striking department as previously mentioned. Simply put, there are levels to this, and we should witness that on Saturday night. Laying the juice with the experienced savvy of the rightful favorite.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

UFC Fight Night: Saskatoon  
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.

WIN - Take Tyson Nam over Zarrukh Adashev (7:35 p.m., Saturday, June 13th)

In the flyweight division, we will see Tyson Nam (18-11) vs. 27-year-old UFC newcomer - Zarrukh Adashev (3-1). This one is fairly simple to break down... Tyson Nam is the more well-rounded fighter with much more MMA experience, but has issues with fighting up, or down, to his opponents' class. He has tendencies to follow the other fighter rather than implement his own game-plan. In fights where he should look for takedowns, he will be all too happy to stand and bang, and vice versa. Zarrukh Adasehv is a pure, well-seasoned kickboxer with creative techniques and will want to keep this fight standing where he holds a distinct advantage. Tyson Nam will need to get this fight to the ground where it will swing the fight in his favor much more, and he does have the tools to do that but as mentioned above, he cannot always be trusted to implement a smart game-plan. We understand all fights start on the feet, and at range, but if this ends up being anything but a technical kick-boxing match, Nam has far more ways to win this fight. He should even be able to win the clinch, or pocket striking exchanges. Nam is 0-2 in the UFC and needs a win here... we will trust him to come out with a solid, aggressive game-plan, and see it through. If he can do that, he should find success in most areas and come out with the victory.

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LOST - Take Mark de La Rosa over Jordan Espinosa (9:35 p.m., Saturday, June 13th)

In the bantamweight division, we will see Mark de La Rosa (11-4) face-off vs. Jordan Espinosa (14-7). This is an interesting fight, where both bring similar skill sets. Espinosa is an incredibly good athlete and has a solid and efficient wrestling game. The issue with his wrestling is his submission defense. He's able to secure takedowns and fight the scrambles, but somehow gets himself in trouble and caught in submissions. He is on a two-fight losing streak for this exact reason and Rosa specializes in capitalizing on that style. Rosa is a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and will be looking to catch Espinosa. We expect this to look ugly, where Jordan will be winning the minute-by-minute exchanges until a patient de La Rosa is able to activate his hips on the mat and look for a submission or many reversals. Espinosa will have to be flawless and extremely careful on the ground if he expects to win as the favorite. We don't think he'll be able to go 15 minutes without getting caught, and for that reason we have to take the value with the dog.

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WIN - Take UNDER 2.5 rounds between Karl Roberson and Marvin Vettori (11:00 p.m., Saturday, June 13th)

For the co-main event of the evening, we have some bad-blood, as Karl Roberson (9-2) takes on Marvin Vettorri (14-3). These guys hate each other for some unknown reason and there is even footage of these two almost getting into it in a hotel lobby after Roberson pulled out of their initial fight. Both fighters are similar in their approach. Both have solid striking and look to grapple when the opportunity presents itself and lock up a submission or finish with some nasty ground and pound. Roberson is the more decorated kickboxer, but Vettori is as tough as nails and is underrated in that department. He went the distance with now champion, Israel Adesanya and only lost via split-decision. In hindsight, that is very impressive. Marvin Vettori has always been aggressive, and has a chip on his shoulder, while Roberson is a little more calculated in his approach but possesses some serious power. Marvin Vettori is a little better everywhere in our opinion, which can be seen by his -240 betting line. The original plan for Vettori would have been to stand and bang for a little while before shooting for a take-down and attempting to lock up a submission. The reason the over/under 2.5 rounds is juiced to the over is because Roberson has solid submission defense, and this fight could make it to the judges' scorecards. However, Roberson has since missed weight by 4.5 pounds, with no attempt to make the limit. We see this time and time again in the UFC, where a fighter happily takes a pay-cut whilst cheating advantages to help propel their career. This is what Roberson has done here. He purposefully missed weight, clearly packing extra muscle to make the takedowns that much harder for Vettori. For this reason, we can see this fight playing out longer on the feet. couple that with the true hatred for one-another, and we can easily see one of these men falling over as they throw haymakers in the middle of the octagon. For this  reason, we like that +165 on the under.