UFC 250 
*These tips will not count to my stats here in this thread.LOST - Take
Evan Dunham over Herbert Burns (6:10p.m., Saturday, June 6th)
In a 150-pound catchweight bout, we will see Evan Dunham (18-8) vs. Herbert Burns (10-2). Herbert Burns will be looking to ride on the wave of momentum his brother, Gilbert Burns ignited last week after he put a 5-round beating on former champion, Tyron Woodley. Herbert Burns has a similar style to his brother with a slick Brazilian jiu-jitsu game, and a solid wrestling albeit not quite the same KO power. While it is clear he does possess some power, he has only won one fight so far by knockout which came via a perfectly timed knee in his last fight against Nate Landwehr. Herbert Burns path to victory in his previous bouts usually comes down to his jiu-jitsu as we can see by his 7 victories via submission. This will not be easy vs. 38-year-old veteran, Evan Dunham. Dunham is a 1st degree Black Belt in BJJ and has 6 wins himself via submission - although we do understand not all black-belts are created equal and Burns will have the advantage in this department. Dunham has not fought in almost two years since his knockout loss to Francisco Trinaldo where admittedly he was showing some signs of decline and his chin was not holding up like it once did. The time off should do him so good and we can expect to see a motivated, more durable Dunham in this fight. What makes this fight interesting is the experience of Dunham vs. a dangerous, but raw fighter in Herbert Burns. Burns does not have much that Dunham has not seen before so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. We believe this will be a competitive fight and a fight that will play out much closer than the odds suggest. Burns' betting line is inflated due to who his brother is, and we see this time and time again (Antonina Shevchenko was favorited last week simply because she has the 'Shevchenko' name). Herbert Burns has potential, but he is NOT his brother. There is no doubt this is a set-up fight where the UFC wants Burns to win vs. a legitimate named opponent, but we think Dunham may have the grit and guile needed to turn this into a war. We are hoping Dunham comes back to fight with purpose and determination, and if he does - the +190 line is too hard to pass up.
WIN - Take
Devin Clark over Alonzo Menifield (6:40 p.m., Saturday, June 6th)
Next up in the light-heavyweight division, we have a matchup between Devin Clark (11-4) vs. Alonzo Menifield (9-0). This is a difficult one to break down as there is not too much that can be said. Alonzo Menifield will be looking to win via knockout early, and Devin Clark will be looking to wrestle and grind his way to a decision. Clark is a very solid wrestler with explosive entries which gives him success, although slightly undersized for the 205-pound division. Menifield on the other hand has never gone to a decision in his undefeated 9 fight professional career and has only made it out of the 1st round twice. There is no doubting Menifield's power, but that aside - we have not seen much else from him. In his fight vs. Daniel Jolly, he was taken down without too much resistance, but the fight was stopped due to vision issues. Clark is a much better wrestler than Jolly, and we expect Clark to be able to time his entries and land his takedowns in open space, or against the cage which will zap the energy from the muscular Menifield. The one issue here for Clark is his chin. He has shown signs in the past that a shot landed anywhere near the right place has been enough to shut him out. This is absolutely a possibility early, but if somehow Clark can avoid that big bomb and turn this into a high paced grappling/wrestling match, we believe the wrong man would be favored. For this reason, we will take a shot on Clark at almost 2/1.
LOST - Take
Brian Kelleher over Cody Stamann (8:40 p.m., Saturday, June 6th)
In the feather-weight division, Brian Kelleher (21-10) will face-off vs. Cody Stamann (18-2). There is no doubting either of these fighters' abilities. Kelleher is as tough as they come and is always ready to fight. He is coming into this fight on a two-fight winning streak, fresh off his knockout win vs. Hunter Azure which took place only a few weeks ago! Let us not get it twisted though, Hunter was painting the fence with Kelleher before the big shot landed. Kelleher is willing to leave it all in the octagon as we can see with 8 wins by knockout, and 9 by submission. Only four-times has he won via the scorecards. The same can be said for his losses as he has lossed 6 times by submission (concerning) and once by KO, only seeing the scorecards 3 times. Cody Stamann on the other hand, is a high-pressure wrestler who has impressive technique. Whilst Stamann has only lost once in the UFC, his performances have still been inconsistent. He finds himself winning narrowly on the scorecards, and sometimes by split decision. One could argue his record looks better than it should, and the luck has simply gone his way at times. One thing that should also be mentioned is that Stamann is still mourning the loss of his younger brother who recently died this past week. The details are unknown at this time but there is no doubt this will affect him on fight night. Sometimes this can fuel a fighter and Stamann vowed to dedicate the fight to his brother, but in all honesty, he probably should not be fighting. It's too soon and we don't think he will be able to perform at his peak and could see an adrenaline dump. We take no joy in including this information in our assessment, but at the end of the day, it is indeed relevant (think back to our position on Overeem vs. Walt Harris). Kelleher is in fight shape and the short turnaround will work in his favor as this fight moves into the later rounds. Stamann will be looking to wrestle, which comes as no surprise, but it will not be easy considering the 85% take-down defense of Kelleher and that wicked Guillotine he will be threatening. If Stamann struggles to get this fight to the ground, or is not able to hold Kelleher down, this could be extremely competitive. We believe this has a razor close, split-decision fight written all over it, and for that reason will have to fire on the +210 value being offered on Brian Kelleher.
LOST - Take
Anthony Rocco Martin over Neil Magny (10:40 p.m., Saturday, June 6th)
Next up in the welter-weight division, we will see Anthony Rocco Martin (17-5) take on Neil Magny (22-7). Rocco Martin has been impressive and is improving with each fight. He is very solid on the ground, and his stand up is becoming extremely dangerous. Neil Magny on the other hand looked phenomenal in his last fight winning a dominant decision vs. Li Jingliang back in March. Although it should be noted, Jingliang fought an awful fight so it's hard to get a read on how much Magny improved. When assessing this fight, both have paths to victory. Martin will be looking to land big shots and put him away, possibly even with a knock-down followed by submission, where Neil will look to pepper the jab, be evasive and light on his feet and outpace Rocco en route to a unanimous decision win. The issue with Magny is his inconsistencies. It is hard to get a read on him which can be shown by his 50%-win rate since 2015. This fight could go either way but we believe Anthony Rocco Martin will have enough tricks in the bag to find an opening and land something to hurt Magny and at the very least, deplete some of that remarkable gas tank. This is a remarkably close fight, but one in which we think the odds should be flipped slightly favoring Martin. Once again - we will take the value.
WIN - Take
Aljamain Sterling over Cory Sandhagen (11:40 p.m., Saturday, June 6th)
In this bantam-weight bout, Aljamain Sterling (18-3) will face-off vs. Cory Sandhagen (12-1). Let's start off by saying what an incredible fight this should be, and we applaud the UFC matchmakers. Cory Sandhagen is an extremely talented fighter, and one we have been high on for quite some time. He trains at elevation which pays dividends in his cardio and utilizes range extremely well. Sandhagen really showed the world what he is capable of when he beautifully out-pointed Raphael Assuncao in August 2019. He is a clear prospect for this division but will have his hands full when he takes on the "Funk Master" Aljamain Sterling. Aljo is a seasoned fighter who comes from an exceptionally good camp and fully understands how to utilize his striking chained to grappling skill set. Sterling is coming off four straight impressive wins vs. an even more impressive line-up. (Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, Cody Stamann and Bret Johns). There is no doubt Sterling has had his ups and downs in the octagon, and hasn't had as smooth a ride as Sandhagen, but those trials and tribulations sometimes make up the most dangerous fighters and Aljamain is starting to put it all together! Both men usually hold distinct reach advantages but that will not be the case for either here (sterling possesses just a 1-inch advantage). The thing is - Cory is a little untested. No doubt he has looked good, but excusing his most recent win vs. Assuncao, he has not exactly fought too many killers. We expect a feeling out process to start this fight, before Aljo starts to utilize his many tools, before eventually dominating the grappling exchanges. It will be competitive in the striking but once sterling starts to grab his body-lock, chain wrestle and grapple, it will be a long night for Sandhagen. There is a lot of hype behind Cory, and rightfully so, but that is skewing the reality of what we believe will play out at UFC 250. The only concern is Aljo's chin. It is not terrible by any means, but he has shown signs of weakness in that regard. If he can avoid a big shot, or a nasty knee upon entry to his grappling, this will turn out to be an important lesson for Sandhagen which will only further develop his future potential. This fight, however, will belong to Sterling who we price closer to -200.
