Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 54. (Read 12690 times)

As per our selection on Roma to win this game, they have to get back in the win column if they are to have any shot at keeping pace with Milan and Napoli for the fifth spot and the automatic birth into the Europa League group stage. Roma has had a really hard go of it lately, losing three straight games. Outside of the loss to Udinese, they've lost to Napoli and AC Milan which is no shame seeing as they are good teams. Now Roma will regroup and take on a Parma side that has also lost three straight, two of which came to inferior opponents. If history is any indication, Roma will come out with all three points as they've beaten Parma in 9 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2012. Roma gets back on track and we cash another soccer ticket.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Wolverhampton has been one of the most solid teams in the Premier League since the restart. They had their three-game winning streak snapped their last time out, falling 2-0 to Arsenal. However, they actually outplayed Arsenal - who has been hot - and gave up two tough goals. I think that they are going to snap back here. Wolverhampton has a ton of motivation here. Without going to far out into the weeds they are playing for a potential slot in the Champions League. Three points here would be huge. Sheffield United is a team that I have been looking to bet against. They have played so far over their heads for so much of this season, including their garbage win over Tottenham last week. That's their only win since March 7 and their only other results were draws against weak Burnley and Aston Villa squads. I like the value in this spot and I'll play for a win.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Wednesday Soccer Bonanza 
*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take WESTHAM over Burnley (1 p.m., Wednesday, July 8th)

It's kind of a red flag here that the lower rated team is such a strong favorite. Burnley has been chugging along, taking four wins and four draws in their last nine matches. They've benefitted from a pretty easy schedule, though, and I think that they are due for a flat spot. West Ham has been the opposite. They've had a brutal schedule: Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City have all shown up in their last eight matches. They went 1-0-1 in the other two matches, and also picked up a win over Chelsea. I'm going to follow the number here.

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WIN - Take OVER 2.5 GOALS between Liverpool and Brighton Hove (3:15 p.m., Wednesday, July 8th)

Brighton & Hove's defense has been shaky, despite what their goals allowed suggest. They have thrown two clean sheets in their last three matches. But they should've given up at least two to Leicester and they could've given up five to Man. United. Seven of their last 10 matches have gone 'under' 2.5 goals. But I just don't think that's a real reflection of how shaky they can be in the back. Liverpool never needs an excuse to score. Six of their last 10 matches have gone over 2.5 goals and after their clinical win over Aston Villa I think they will be playing loose and free here. This one looks like a 3-1 affair.

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ITALY SERIE A
WIN - Take DRAW between Cagliari at Fiorentina (1:30 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Maybe I should be reading this line and going strong on Fiorentina. Instead I'm going to go with the value here. It is insane that Fiorentina would be a 4-to-1 favorite over Cagliari. Fiorentina is -6 this year in goal differential (versus +2 for Cagliari) and they have basically been similar, foul-prone squads. Fiorentina hasn't won at home in almost six months. The DRAW here has a huge value that I can't pass on.

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WIN - Take NAPOLI over Genoa (1:30 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Napoli has been very, very good since the restart. The have won four of their last five matches and, including their penalty advancement against Inter they have won six of seven matches. That surge has come against a very solid schedule too, with four of their last seven coming against Inter, Juventus, Atalanta and Roma, four of the top six squads. Now they get to step down in class to face a sloppy Genoa side. Genoa has not been good since the restart, losing twice and taking two draws. I don't see much from them here and I think Napoli will continue to ascend.

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WIN - Take ATALANTA -1.5 GOALS over Sampdoria (3:45 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Atalanta has won 11 straight matches and their offensive attack is one of the best in Europe. There is no reason not to bet them and we will continue to ride this streak.

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WIN - Take SASSUOLO ML over Bologna (3:45 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Bologna is coming off a scummy, garbage 2-1 upset win over Inter. They were down 1-0 and had just conceded a penalty shot in the 62nd minute. Inter missed that penalty and then, despite a man advantage, allowed a short-handed goal and then lost outright after taking a red of their own. It was a fluke joke. So I am playing for a major letdown from this thuggish side in this match.

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MEXICO - Cup of Mexico
WIN - Take UANL TIGRES ML over Guadalaraja (10:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

The Tigres should've had three goals in their first match and should've won easily. Instead they took a 0-0 draw. But if they play like that again here they should walk away with an easy win against an overmatched opponent.

Regression is a powerful factor in sports handicapping. Both positive and negative regressions are like the ebb and flow of the tides. It's touchy, though. You don't want to bet against streaks and you don't want to be on the wrong end of betting into a team with positive or negative momentum. However, it can also become apparent when a team or a player is due. And as I look at Dan Straily and the Lotte Giants I see a good situation for them here. Straily is beyond due. The former 15-game MLB winner really is too good for this league in a lot of ways. He has a 2.53 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP despite the fact that he's using juiced balls in hitter's parks. He's faced three good lineups in a row and his last two starts have been two of his worst of the season, allowing nine runs (just six earned) in 12 innings of work. He's done so despite giving up just 15 hits and one walk during that stretch. I think he's going to rebound here and I think that he will dominate a bad Hanwha squad. We really don't need a reason to bet against Hanwha, who is 13-40 in their 53 games. They are winning less than 25 percent of their games, which is the equivalent of an MLB team that goes 40-122. Would you ever have an issue betting against a team like that? Me either. Lotte is coming off a rough weekend, dropping two of three at home to SK (another bad team). But after a day off I think that that are a bit desperate coming into this series and I think that Straily is going to serve as their stopper.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take BRIGHTON ML 1ST HALF over Liverpool (3:15 p.m., Wednesday, July 8th)

Tuesday Basketball and Soccer Bonanza  
*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
PUSH - Take CHELSEA -1.0 GOAL over Crystal Palace (1:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)
LOST - Take UNDER 2.5 GOALS between Chelsea and Crystal Palace (1:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

These two teams have been playing at opposite ends of the spectrum. Crystal Palace has gotten rocked in their last three matches, all losses. They were a no show against Leicester in their last outing and they have been outscored 8-0 in those three L's. Chelsea rebounded from a shocking loss to West Ham with a dominating 3-0 effort against Watford. They have won five of six matches since the restart and they are 7-1 in their last eight overall (with wins over Liverpool and Man City). These guys can dominate. And if you kick out that 3-2 match against West Ham they have outscored their last seven opponents 15-2. I think they can throw another beating here and pick up three more points.

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SPANISH LA LIGA
LOST - Take ATLETICO MADRID ML over Celta Vigo (4:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)
PUSH - Take OVER 2.0 GOALS between Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo (4:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

I don't think that this is going to be a blowout but I do think that Madrid will pick up another win. They have been one of the hottest teams in Europe for the entirety of 2020. They've lost once since late January, going 9-1 with six draws. And dating back to the beginning of December Madrid is 14-4-7. Yes, Celta Vigo is motivated to stay out of the relegation zone. But they are six points clar and coming off a surprising draw with Betis. They've played some teams tough. But Vigo can't score. Kick out a 6-0 win over Alaves and they have scored just five goals in eight matches and eight goals in their last 13 matches. These two teams played to a draw back in September. I don't see one of the worst teams in the league pulling points a second time against one of the best teams.

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THE BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (United States)
WIN - Take SIDELINE CANCER -1.5 POINTS over Team Challenge ALS (2:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

Sideline Cancer was one of the more impressive teams that I saw in the opening rounds of this tournament. They had a big-time comeback win over Team Hines, another very solid team, and I think that Sideline Cancer is going to carry over that momentum into this game. Besides having a little momentum and a little swagger, I think it is going to be a big benefit to Sideline Cancer that they have already played a game in this tournament. They were able to knock the rust off in their first game and I think that they will come out firing here. I think it will take Team Challenge a little time to get into the swing of things. That should allow Sideline to get some more early confidence and an early lead. I like them to spring another upset and to advance in this tournament.

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LOST - Take MEN OF MACKEY +5 POINTS over Boeheim's Army (4:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

Boeheim's Army was supposed to be one of the best teams in this field. But then they lost their only two big guys, Tyler Lydon and Chris McCullough, pulled out at the last minute. That means they don't have anyone taller than 6-9 on the team and they are essentially going to be playing with four guards and one small forward at all times. Men of Mackey should be able to easily exploit their major advantage in the post. These Purdue guys are also great defenders. And I can see them locking up a Syracuse team that is not known for its offensive execution. I don't see a single scenario in which this one turns out to be a blowout.

Let's take a stab with Arsenal. Right now I just think they are playing better than Leicester. And the fact that they are favored despite being lower in the table is kind of a red flag. Leicester has not been good sine the restart, winning just once two draws and two losses. But really their downfall started much earlier, with just three wins since late January. They are just 3-5-4 during that stretch and the wins have come against some really bad teams. Arsenal has won four straight matches by a combined score of 10-1, with all but one of the wins by multiple goals. That includes wins over Sheff United and Wolverhampton. I think they have some mojo right now. And I think that they will come through again here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
WIN - Take OVER 0.5 GOAL 1ST HALF between Watford FC and Norwich City (1:00 p.m., Monday, July 7th)

Tuesday Baseball Bonanza  
*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

KOREAN BASEBALL LEAGUE
LOST - Take LOTTE ML over Hanwha (5:30 a.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

Let's just keep chopping against Hanwha. No bet against them is a bad bet and this continues to be the worst team in the league. Neither pitcher is anything to write home about, but Lotte is better in the field and at the plate. This team blew its series with SK over the weekend and I think that after a day off they are going to feel some of the desperation to beat up on the worst team in the league.

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LOST - Take NC Dinos -1.5 RUNS over SK Wyverns (5:30 a.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

Koo Chang-mo is on the mound for the Dinoes and he has been by far, without a doubt, the best pitcher in KBO this year. He is 7-0 in his 10 starts with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. There is absolutely nothing fluky about it eiter, as Chang-mo has 76 strikeouts to just 12 walks and nine quality starts. He has shut down the best lineups in the league so I think that he should be able to dominate one of the worst. He hasn't even faced SK's pathetic lineup yet. But last time he faced Hanwha, an equally poor team, he breezed through seven innings allowing one run while striking out nine and walking none. I think he will dominate here.

We like Kumar here as he faced Boyer last year in 2019 and easily lost to him around 6-4, 6-3 but this contest is different here. Omni is older and he he has trained harder and he is not the top 1350 ranking that he currently shows now. He is much better than that. Omni Kumar just beat Karimov, beat Brymer and Chappell. He is a Duke product who continues to improve and thrive and get better. We frankly can see Kumar winning this contest 6-4, 6-4 so getting it at -1.5 games is not a bad idea as we have him winning by at least 4 games here. Kumar is significantly more mature and has gotten better over the last year and don't let the 18 year old fool you, the books know he has gotten better and Boyer is a good player, but Kumar is younger, better, faster and seeks revenge here to boot. We like Omni to get it done today relatively easily.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Heidenheim to grab the win or draw in regulation against Werder Bremen, you have to love their chances of winning this game on their home soil and progressing to the next start of the promotion round. Heidenheim managed to secure a 0-0 draw away to Bremen in the first leg and now will need a win at home - something they've done extremely well lately (five-game home winning streak) to do so. Heidenheim was such a dominant home team in the BL2, they beat a -1 spread in four of their last six home wins. As for Bremen, the started the restart well but have faded of late. They have yet to win in one trip to Heidenheim and we don't like their chances at getting on the board here today. This is Heidenheim's super bowl and with the team's level on aggregate after the first leg, Heidenheim can go out and play their attacking brand of football and take the fight to Bremen.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

SPAIN LA LIGA
WIN - Take UNDER 2.5 GOALS between Sevilla - Eibar (4:00 p.m., Monday, July 6th)

You are on a hot streak right now and unfortunately I have missed betting on your picks for the past couple of days due to taking a little break away before we most likely go back into lock down here in Melbourne. Anyway keep up the good work mate and I'll be sure to follow now that I'll most likely be stuck at home.

Manchester City are coming off their revenge match, they crush Liverpool 4-0 in the Reds first match since lifting their first Premier League title. That puts City on a two-match winning streak outscoring their opponents 6-0 since their 2-1 loss at Chelsea. City have practically locked up second place in the League, but it is still uncertain if they will win their appeal to play in the Champions League next season, so this really is a nonfactor here. But they have been on a hot streak since the restart, picking up four clean sheets in their four wins, notching 14 goals in those four wins and outscoring their opponents 15-2 in their five matches back. With all hot streaks, you do go cold every so often as we saw with their 2-1 loss at Chelsea. They now face a Southampton side that is over the hump and safe from relegation this season. In their three matches back they are 2-1-0 with wins at Norwich City and Watford. Their loss did come at home against a resurgent Arsenal side. City won their last meeting 2-1 after Southampton took a lead into halftime, but two second half goals gave City their seventh in a row. Southampton is due having not picked up a point against City since an October 2016 1-1 draw. We like the underdog here, City have been flying high for too long, they have controlled this series and Southampton is primed for a shocker here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Sunday Basketball Bonanza 
*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

UNITED STATES - TBT (THE BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT)
LOST - Take Heartfire +1 point over Men of Mackey (7:00 p.m., Sunday, July 5th)

I kind of like this Heartfire team as a potential sleeper. They have a really solid frontcourt, with Isaiah Austin, Gary McGhee, Branden Dawson and Kristian Doolittle. They should more than be able to stand up to the big frontcourt that the Men of Mackey will bring into this one. In fact, they should be able to wear Isaac Haas down on the interior. So then it comes down to guard play, and I like Heartfire's backcourt a little bit more. This will be a very close game but I will go with the underdog.

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WIN - Take Herd That -4.5 points over Peoria All Stars (2:00 p.m., Sunday, July 5th)

Herd That is a little undersized. But guys like Ryan Luther, Chris Cokley and JaCorey Williams all play bigger than they are and are capable of banging around on the interior. Herd That has several solid shooters, including Stevie Browning and Jon Elmore, and they have an X-Factor in super-athletic forward Zach Smith. I don't really like Peoria's guards at all. And even their two big men are more capable on the defensive end than the offensive one. I will go with the lower ranked team, which is favored for a reason.

Sunday Soccer Bonanza  
*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

ITALY SERIE A
WIN - Take Atalanta -0.5 goals over Cagliari (1:30 p.m., Sunday, July 5th)

Atalanta is on the road. Atalanta has been absolutely on fire. They have 82 goals in just 29 matches and I have yet to see anyone stop this juggernaut offense. There's no reason not to bet them until I do see someone slow them down.

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RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
WIN - Take Zenit St. Petersburg over Krasnodar (1:30 p.m., Sunday, July 5th)

This is three-way betting. A draw is a loss.

I will back Zenit at this price against anyone in the Russian Premier League. Krasnodar is the No. 3 team in the table right now but no one has been even close to Zenit. They have taken just two losses and five draws in 25 matches and I don't think that Krasnodor will take a point here. They have not looked sharp since the restart, taking a draw with Rostov their last time out. They have lost four of their last eight matches (one draw) and nothing about their play makes me think they can take out the best team in the league.

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SPANISH LA LIGA
WIN -  Take Barcelona over Villarreal (4 p.m., Sunday, July 5th)

This is three-way betting. A draw is a loss.

I think Barca is going to be feeling the pressure today against Villarreal and I think that they will answer the bell. After back-to-back draws this team absolutely has to get a win and put three points on the board. They are now seven points behind Real Madrid and to take a loss or a draw here would mean disaster. There is all kinds of talent on this squad and they know the stakes. After taking three draws in four matches I think Barca gets back in the win column.

I have an irrational belief that Lotte is better than they have played. They won 10-4 Saturday morning and I think that they are set up to win this series by taking Sunday's game. SK has been horrible all season long. They are just 15-37 and this team simply cannot hit at all. They have been a train wreck since their collapse late last season and the carry over to this season has been obvious. Lotte needs to get itself back to .500 this week and they absolutely cannot afford to lose a series at home to a team as bad as SK. This is a must-win game and I think that they will have some urgency here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

ENGLISH PREMIERE LEAGUE
WIN - Take Chelsea -1.5 goals over Watford (3:00 p.m., Saturday, July 4th)

Juve is rolling. Since the restart they have outscored their opponents 9-1, and now they play a Torino club that has one of the worst defenses in all of Serie A. Torino has only won one of their last 10 matches and they haven't even looked that good...This is just not a good matchup for Torino. Their defense is going to get torched by a Juve team that doesn't do anything but win. Lay the goal and a half in this match as Juve wins 2-0.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Man U is licking their chops. Teams above them in the table are not taking their full amount of points and they are ready to pounce. A win in this match puts Man U even with third place Leicester on points albeit with a one more match played. Both Leicester and Chelsea failed in their 32nd match to grab all the points and they have left the door open for Man U to continue to put pressure on both for the 3rd and 4th Champions League spots. Man U has looked good since they returned from the break and this match will be no different. We see a 3 or 4-0 win for Manchester United in this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Leeds still hold a one point lead in the Championship, but they are pulling a classic Leeds and fizzling at the end of the season. Leeds returned to place with a 2-0 loss at sixth place Cardiff which was followed by a 3-0 win over fifth place Fulham, only to struggle against last place Luton Town running out to a 1-1 draw at home. Leeds now travel to Blackburn with six matches to play. They hold a six point lead over third place Brentford, so a win here will provide another buffer for the leaders. For Blackburn, they return home after two straight 2-0 losses against 14th place Wigan and 23rd place Barnsley. Blackburn did beat 12th place Bristol City 3-1 in their opening match, but this was their only win in their last seven matches. Leeds have won the last two matches and six of the last seven. This is a must win of Leeds and we expect the visitors to dominate Saturday.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The fight for a top four spot has caught fire as Leicester has slipped since the restart and those in fifth through ninth are surging including Manchester United who are just three points back of Leicester. The Foxes are 0-2-2 in their four matches since the restart and return home to face Crystal Palace. This team is too talented to be struggling and we expect their winless run to come to a close on Saturday morning. For Palace, they are 1-2-0 in their three matches since the restart and are coming off a 1-0 home loss to tenth place Burnley. Prior to the shutdown, Palace won four in a row, but all four were against sides below them in the table. Palace sit in the comfort zone, they have hit the magic number and are safe for another season. This match does little for there they finish and we expect Leicester to take advantage of Palace's apathy. Leicester won the first match this season, 2-0 at Palace which snapped the visitors four match winning streak over the host. Leicester is in need of a win before the find themselves in fifth or sixth place and out of the Champions League.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We will ride Drew Rucinski tonight as the Dinos look to get back on track after losing last night. He is 6-1 on the season with a 2.38 E.R.A. He won earned the victory in his last two starts going 14 innings and giving up just three earned runs. He was not as impressive against Kia in his only start again them, but did earn a quality start giving up just 4 hits in 6 innings of work.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Hanwha may have had the edge in pitching last night and still got pounded. Tonight, they do not have the edge in the pitching department and thus we have to lay a lot of wood even with the run line. Paul Alcantara takes the mound for the Bears and he is 7-1 this season with a 3.69 E.R.A. Expect a blowout tonight and we will have the juice with the run line.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

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*These tip will not count to my stats here in this thread.

SPAIN LA LIGA
WIN - Take Atletico Madrid -1.5 goals over Mallora (4:00 p.m., Friday, July 3rd)