In the one thread, I mentioned that using bfl.ptz.ro you could see that a minimum of 938 Jalapenos listed from Jun 23 to the end of Jan along with where the other lines were. I felt we could triple the total and get a good lowball figure for their shipping to date. That would be ~3000 Jalapenos which was kind of scoffed at as too high. I then commented that I felt the true number of Jalas was closer to 7000(my gut said 10k, but I went with 7k) than the less than 3000 the others believed. I straight up asked Josh if I was right about it being closer to 7000 and his response was yes, much much closer. I would have to take that as meaning they shipped somewhere between 5k and 7k Jala's, which is the closest I got to actual numbers.
I did the math on the bfl.ptz.ro
For Jalapenos from Day 1 to the last ship date 2/14/13 there are 1063 orders. So you are saying that the number is about triple that?
Something tells me the factor for Singles is not Triple, but something less than Triple.
On bfl.ptz.ro the amount of singles from yesterdays shipments (nov 16 - 19) is 7 (seven)
Mini-Rigs (August 5-15) is 12 (twelve)
Mini-Rigs (July 18-20) is 3 (three)
Now in BFLs defense, Mini-Rigs take forever to assemble (I would guess) so if they shipped 15 to 20 yesterday that is probably full time job for 3 people.
However the numbers don't add up on Singles. If the factor was Triple, X4 or X5 - They shipped almost none yesterday.
That's all well and good, what baffles my mind is that Josh said YESTERDAY that they would clear to April 2013 in 20 days.
Is he so disconnected or is there some magic wand he has that no one knows about.
Triple was the estimate used before, I'm saying it looks to be more like 5-6x from Josh's answer to me. I didn't ask about Singles unfortunately.
I do think you are fairly correct on the mini-rig build speed. I know the one assembler was starting one when we left to goto lunch and a little over an hour later had finished that one and was about 1/2 way through the second.
I think the big thing to consider is that it takes 8 times as much to build a mini as it does to build a single. I've thought about this a lot and something came to me today... when Josh was saying they could produce 400 units, what if he meant 400 boards? When I think about the amount the binning place is supposed to send to Chicago each day, 5000 chips, if you only made 16 chip boards that would make 312.5 boards. Since the LS only take 8 chips and the Jala 2, you could easily get up to 400 or more.
Another thing to consider, only chips with all 16 engines working go into the long boards. Generally 60-70% of chips fall into this category. If 30% fail at least 1 engine on 5000 chips, thats 1500 chips and that would potentially make 750 Jalapenos. That number seems awfully high to me compared to the Jala's estimated numbers. Maybe they've only been using the Grade B chips for Jalas, but that would mean there are a lot of unused C and D graded chips. The other possibility is they are getting more Grade A chips than normal.
I'm waiting for next weeks' shipping reports, after the new assemblers come online. That should give us the best picture to date. By Wed or Thurs we'll know.
) for your own wood pile 2 barn doors high..... but all good barnwood is only procured during the dead of night through honest hard barnwood theft work... 
