Topic: [FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September - page 38. (Read 69478 times)

So contrary to "tl;dr" I did read your posts.

Still have questions like:

What's your opinion of daily volume?

How many assemblers?

You said you saw stuff going out the door? Any more specifics??

Did you see anything that was contrary to what "the haters" have to say?

You mentioned something about 7000 Jalas, does that mean that they have sent 7000 since they started?

I went back and looked at your posts and did not learn a thing.

I get you weren't there to argue, but when you say things like:

"When asked, Josh did comment he was looking at around Apr/May when he made the backlog statement."

You know that is a 100% falsehood right?

I posted an image of it but here is the actual post:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/3703-josh-its-time-update-bfl-asic-status.html#post45852

Call your attention to:
"I did talk to suppliers and ran some calculations. With the current order book up to today, I expect it to be filled by the end of September. "

Today = July 6, 2013

And again not trying to pick a fight, and didn't expect you to, but seriously?

I'd have more respect if you quoted him and then said this was a change from what he said on 7/6


Unignored.

If you hadn't ignored me, you may have learned something.  oh well.

Been a few days and we really have heard no report from BCP or PG on their trip to BFL.


I find that unusual.

Something PG mentioned while we were in KC made me think about this post.  It's something he and I went through but I doubt anyone under 25 would ever be able to fully understand.

When we were children, you used to have things advertised on cereal boxes that you could send away for once you had 6 box tops.  PG was came from a family with 6 kids, but for me if was just my brother and I.  We both usually wanted whatever it was and then we'd have to amass 12 boxtops to send in.  12 boxtops usually meant a good 6-8 weeks cause we were only allowed to take them from empty boxes.  Once we had the box tops, we'd fill out the order forms and might have to add a doller or so for shipping and then you'd mail it in and wait.  The normal shipping time on these was "Allows 8-12 weeks for delivery".  So, from seeing the product advertised to receipt was a minimum of 4 months, and this was for something they had IN STOCK.

The first deployment I made to Japan, I would call home once a month, a 30 minute call could cost around $100.  Imagine trying to hold a converstaion with someone where you have to wait 3-6 seconds for a response due to the time lag from going 1/2 way around the world.  We've made great strides since then, years later I could call from halfway around the world and there was no perceptible delay and it sounded like you were calling someone right next door.

"Instant gratification" seems to be the keyword.  You've got the commercials with people yelling out windows "It's MY MONEY and I want it NOW!!!".  Everyone's advertising "NEXT DAY DELIVERY!" and people regularly pay the premium to get it.  I recently ordered an old shop manual off Ebay and I could have gone with next day service for something like $25-30, but I selected the Economy shipping.  I placed the order on a Friday and it was in my mailbox Monday.  I guess that $25-30 would have been money well spent! (<-- yes, that was sarcasm)

My background gives me a better insight into the workings behind these companies than most people have.  I know well how theory seldom equals reality.  I've helped test new equipment many times over my career, and engineers don't often stop to think what people will do.  I remember one of the first touch screens we got in and they were showing us how it worked.  The person who brought it was carefully explaining how to bring this amd that.  Then one of the people who would be operating it sat down and asked "But what happens if I do this?" and he pushed 3 buttons at once.  The screen locked up and they had to completely power down the system and reboot it.  The people who create and build things never think to add safeguardslike this, cause they'd never hit all 3 of those buttons at once.

Patience truly is a virtue.

Update from OP



 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship  [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
175 299 Days of Little Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
257 404 days of Singles   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]
311430 days of Mini-rig orders.   [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013]

So that's a reduction of 513 "order days per capita" that he has reduced the goal by.

Source:  BFL Shout Box
or Twitter:

https://twitter.com/BFL_News

"BFL is outsourcing Jalapeno production to a 3rd party company and it is taking time to transfer the process."


LOL how about outsourcing COO and Public Relations to someone who gives a shit about their customers.

What a load of BS!

When posting this kind of info, put link to source, please.

MARIPOSA LABORATORIO

Your ASIC bitcoin miner outsource champion.
Costa Rica, 2013 (as soon as Sonny's parole is complete)


edit to add:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mariposa

Nevermind.

New Goal Date per Josh given on Sept 11th 2013 is end of April 2013.

So with 19 days 5 hours left, Josh predicts all back orders to the end of April 2013 cleared.

So just talking about Singles. There are 257 days of orders between August 16th 2012 (current ship date) and April 30th 2013.

There are 16 BFL work days (6 days a week) between now and Sept 30

So everyday starting today, 16.5 pay dates worth of orders have to go out to make the goal on singles.

Not counting LS or Mini-Rigs.

Even Steve says...........

Latest news from Joshua at BFL:


BFL is outsourcing Jalapeno production to a 3rd party company and it is taking time to transfer the process.

Other products are not outsourced and "we are expanding manufacturing capacity for other lines in house"

"The goal is still to get through April orders by the end of September"

"We will have shipped all 65nm products before we begin shipping Monarch Products"

###end of quotes###

So for those keeping score, the quote that he wanted to get through July by end of September is no longer the deal.

The new deal is "through April" , in my mind, "to April means April 1st, through April means April 30th"

So they have shed a portion of orders to Monarch upgrades, and now moved Jalapenos to a 3rd party.

That leaves LS, Singles and Mini-Rigs to get out.

Still don't see it happening. Just my opinion.

At the rate they're shipping, I wouldn't be surprised if less than half of all the 65nm asic devices ordered will ever break even, even if they're all sent to a cheap-electricity state and hooked up to RaspPi units.

I have a 60 gh single on order (very early winter 2013). My breaking point is Diff at 150 mil where it will take approx two -3 months depending on how fast the diff increases from there to break even.

BFL feels 6-12 months break even is acceptable but I vehemently disagree.

I appreciate all the math, but based on the lack of movement, and even though BFL is waffling on what backlog they said they would clear (July, May, April whatever)  it is no longer possible for them to make the deadline.

Their efforts are slowing not increasing, 2 product lines have been all but stalled since August, Singles are moving at between 1 and 1.5 pay dates per day.

If I don't have my equipment by the next difficulty increase (chances are nil) I will get my refund.
You should too.

Huh, are you talking about my avatar?  I don't think it looks anything like a car, plane, train or an Avalon with wires sticking out


Good idea.  He's obviously not saying anything of value.

I was early to BFL (PG was searching for someone selling cigarettes and got lost), so I saw the Fed Ex truck pull in and head around back.  I wandered back there and was looking between the building and a semi at the driver carrying ~6 loads into the truck, but felt kind of conspicuous so I headed back tot eh front of the building.  Truck left about 10 min later.  I have to sadly inform PL they were wrong... There was no huge pile of boxes from Friday-Tuesday waiting for us to see.  According to Josh, USPS, UPS, DHL and Fed Ex all normally pickup in the morning, so everything had been sent out by the time PG and I got there.

I did ask Josh about #'s... the only one he gave me though was that my comment in this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3020097 where I said it likely they had shipped closer to 7,000 Jala's that the low ball number the haters use was accurate.  It was closer to 7,000.  I tried.

Did not meet a Goodacre that I remember(maybe PG remembers), but I wasn't actively looking for him so I may have missed his name when introduced.  We did get to have lunch with Dave "The Knife" though... I didn't see any knives in evidence though.

When asked, Josh did comment he was looking at around Apr/May when he made the backlog statement.

The Kool-Aid was great, PG was given a 5 gallon bucket.  Might be why he woke up in Cleveland.....

I'll let you handle the last one... you and Xian (and a couple others) seem to have the phallic obsession here.

Dude, you forgot to tell them what they wanted to hear!!!  The Kool-Aid was Cherry.

Wow - talk about efficiency - I was beat at posting my own post! LOL......

Anyways, you can see here that Josh spent some time in the SB tonight providing some degree of additional clarity. While I understand the constraint placed on him and the BFL team as to the use of paydates shipped as the benchmark of progress I still do not agree with it. It belies any empirical measure other than some form of trend analysis which I have attempted to do in this thread. I will continue to update the BFL forum posting and then cross post the results here for the rest of September.

To see the post on the BFL forum with color please go here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post57018

REVISED Paydates required to ship per day remaining to make the stated September 30, 2013 timeline to clear 65nm product backlog assuming the backlog is to the end of April 2013 as stated by Josh in the SB September 10th, 2013

Jalapeno: 3.8

Little Single: 8.8

Single:.12.9

Mini Rig: 15.6
...... .. . ........
Red = Increasing (bad)...Yellow = no movement (still bad) Green = Improvement (good if it continues to improve)

Jody's Blog Date: 9/10/2013

Assumptions:
These figures are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to APRIL 30, 2013 as confirmed by Josh on September 10th, 2013
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)
Previous update values will scroll to the right in order to show the trend