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Topic: [FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September - page 40. (Read 69478 times)

legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1001
Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories.  Grin
Never drink or eat anything they offer, might be laced with hallucinogens my friend!

Don't stay at BFL after the 15th....you'll turn into Josh jr............FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvObIj7MKXY
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories.  Grin
Never drink or eat anything they offer, might be laced with hallucinogens my friend!
BKM
sr. member
Activity: 315
Merit: 250
You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING  Wink ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information

Nice work... shipping is slipping. What is the current average of daily shipments so far per unit?

TY - the trouble is that BFL refuses to define what the remaining backlog consists of in terms of units. The only thing they have consistently provided is the paydates shipped which (especially if you have a manufacturing background) is next to useless. The ONLY thing I could think of that made sense was to identify the trend in terms of the number of paydates they need to ship PER DAY to meet their stated goals.

It would simply be much easier if BFL used the proper metric of the number of units in the pipeline and the number of units shipped per day. If they had a good reason not to (in their mind at least) when they first took this approach it has surely gone by the wayside. I for one would not be the least bit concerned if they changed their mind and actually started to use a real world metric instead of something invented by unicorns  Wink
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING  Wink ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information

Nice work... shipping is slipping. What is the current average of daily shipments so far per unit?
BKM
sr. member
Activity: 315
Merit: 250
You ever hear the saying "the trend is your friend"? Here is my approach to measuring the trend in shipping at BFL FWIW

Number of paydates required to be cleared PER DAY For BFL to meet the Sept 30 65 nm backlog deadline

Jalapenos - 8.9 - increasing (bad trend)
Little Singles - 13.6 - increasing
Singles - 17.5 - increasing
Mini Rigs - 20.1 - increasing

Assumptions:
The values are derived solely from information supplied by BFL through Jody's blog updates.
The backlog is to August 19, 2013 which is the 28 nm announcement date
Partial shipments of Minirigs are not counted towards attaining paydate targets (Sept 6, 2013 update marks the first full shipment of a MR)


To view the trends in the numbers of paydates required to be shipped go to (with color and EVERYTHING  Wink ):
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/hardware-discussion/4570-where-we-going.html#post56783

I update this linked post as soon as possible after Jody bestows the info on the proletariat. I will also update this thread with the same information
sr. member
Activity: 446
Merit: 250
@ bcp19

How great is BFL right now?

1 to 10 (10 being perfect)

How well would you score BFL on:

Honesty (1/10)

Refunds (1/10)

Keeping customer informed (1/10)

General Performance (1/10)

Accountability (1/10)

Just the numbers please.

Honesty: Potato

Refunds: Potato

Keeping customer informed: Potato

General Performance: Potato

Accountability: Potato
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
You have proof it was outright lying and not a relay of information passed to them from their suppliers? 

Sure, dozens of quotes. Here's the latest:

http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/
Quote
Tape out August 2013

When they posted it, it may not have been an intentional lie (I suspect it was, but I can't prove that). But now that we're into the 2nd week of September they leave it there hoping to deceive customers into thinking they're making better progress than they are. So now it's simply a lie.



BFL Tape out for Monarch... definitely a PANTS ON FIRE there.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1570
Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending
Currently in a hotel room in Kansas with bcp19 sharing a pitcher of Kool Aid. Josh has promised me more KA tomorrow at the lab. I hope I don't get scammed and am only offered water, for I've heard stories.  Grin
full member
Activity: 167
Merit: 100
SHOUTBOX after Monday Update.
[09:52 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : Jody, I woud like my refund on 2 Little singles I bought in June 2013.
[09:52 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : I sent an email a week ago and heard nothing back.
[09:53 PM]   BFL_Jody : Vlad, you would hate us when BTC goes up if we gave you a refund


Did he/she say no later on?  (I'm not sure it's actually Jody as it appears that posting as someone else is possible in the shoutbox.)
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
SHOUTBOX after Monday Update.

[09:51 PM]   silicon_navajo : kidding of course
[09:51 PM]   silicon_navajo : thanks for the update
[09:52 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : Jody, I woud like my refund on 2 Little singles I bought in June 2013.
[09:52 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : I sent an email a week ago and heard nothing back.
[09:53 PM]   BFL_Jody : Vlad, you would hate us when BTC goes up if we gave you a refund

[09:53 PM]   Vlad2Vlad : No, I'm sorry but you guys won't ship those until next year. I can get a KNC miner for 3 times the hashing power much sooner.
[09:53 PM]   int03h : but then if it goes down and you dont he w
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 500
Actuals for Monday:

Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 12-14, 2013 no Jallys shipped today   <<< Nailed it

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 6, 2012 no LS shipped today  <<< Nailed it

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: Aug 16, 2012 pay date  <<< Nine days (better than 4)

MiniRigs: June 23 orders (3rd 500gh/s unit), July 15 orders 2nd 500 gh/s   <<< Pretty Significant
August 5 for 1st 500 g/s units

If you assume they rolled Saturday in, then singles are moving at 4.5 order dates per day (6 days a week)

That is about a month a week. They need 11 weeks to clear Singles at this rate.

They have 18 work days left this month.

Tomorrow they need to clear 1.6 MONTHS of Singles. TOMORROW and every day.





hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 500
Mondays Shipping Predictions based on BFLs lack of enthusiasm last night:


Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 12-14, 2013 no Jallys shipped today

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 6, 2012

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: Aug 11, 2012 pay date

MiniRigs: June 24 orders (3rd 500gh/s unit), July 2 orders 2nd 500 gh/s
August 2 for 1st 500 g/s units

(Going out on a limb for the extra day of Mini-Rig Movement)

Remember they work on weekends so Mondays numbers should be twice Fridays because they roll up Monday and Saturday together.

I still think they will only show an equivalent of what they did any single day last week

Changes are in BOLD


Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-30+23:59:59UTC
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
ACtually "Two More weeks" TM & all of their products wont be profitable *

They will have hit the point of no return **

* FOr those that say BTC will rise is a fools paradise ..Its the same as saying I will pay my rent with the LOTTO winnings

** ALso they will oifficially be insolvent to all of there customers "INVESTMENT" and I am sure that in "Two Weeks " TM that some type of fraud/criminal law will have been broken
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
Get a refund before they run out of money lol... Oct 1st is going to come and go, they won't even be to Jan 1st 2013 on singles by then. Their 65nm line is no longer profitable in 2 months meaning you wont even pay it back even at the $1300 original price point. RUN! for the door.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Since somewhere in the world, right this second, someone is committing a heinous murder, I should be allowed to locate the nearest politician and...
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
"TL;DR" It's ok if BFL lies because some other people in the world lie too.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
@ bcp19

Scenario,

You just blew your two front tires on the road. Lucky for you, there a tire station at the end of the road called ADL.

You hobble in with two front tires burst out. You walk up to the repair shop and tell them you need to replace two tires. The mechanic tells you that it will be 200 USD. You pay the man.

You wait patiently until the man gets around to your vehicle. He informs you after looking at it, that you indeed have two bad tires and they will need to be fully replaced. He informs you after the fact of making payment that no refunds will be given out after work has started. He pulls both rims off your vehicle and informs you that you'll need to wait.

This ordeal started at around 9am on a thursday morning. It is now 5pm. Tell me how do you feel right now?

You keep pacing back and forth and want to talk to the mechanic, the woman at the front desk fields all your questions but doesn't allow you to talk to the mechanic directly. She takes an hour between each response.

Question:

How do you feel about this?

You cannot leave the shop because you are missing two front rims, there is a delay and the work isn't being performed in a reasonable period of time.

Question:

How long is the appropriate time to wait when you aren't given an option to do anything about it?
You really picked the wrong scenario, I've been through it before in many different areas.  I had a car that needed repairs, I took it into the shop and they gave me a price, I told them I'd be out of town for 2 weeks but would have the money to pay for it upon my return.  When I got back they had not even started on the repairs as the gentleman misunderstood what I said and thought I was trying to come up with the money and not to start until I had it.  I'd already had to pay $750 for the parts they had ordered to do the repairs, so I had to either wait or pay someone to tow my car and the parts elsewhere and wait even more.

Another time I had taken my dad to get his glasses replaced as they broke during a trip out to California.  We went to the 1 hour place(Lenscrafter) to get him taken care of.  He has a trifocal lens set-up and after having gotten an exam and waiting the hour we find out the glass has broken as they were shaping it and they had to start again.  Another hour and another broken lens.  7 trips back and 6 broken lenses later we were on our way, having wasted a full day on a 1 hour Vision store.

You're also forgetting that I worked with electronics for 20 years in the Navy, 3 of which was with an R&D squadron.  I have far more knowledge of the things that can go wrong in dealing with new electronics than 90% of the people on this forum.  On top of that, if you think BFL has poor supply lines, you never want to deal with what the Navy does.  Imagine waiting 6 months for a part to arrive and on the day it does this plane flies in from god knows where and when the pilot gets out he goes to the supply officer and says "I understand you just got XXX in, here's a requisition for it, we've got a greater need than you" and now you're waiting yet again for a part.

I've had 3rd gear in my car weld itself to the spline while driving across the middle of Nevada and had to sit at a motel for over two weeks waiting for them to get a replacement shipped in that "will be here tomorrow or the next day".

There's an old adage... Violence is the first refuge of the incompetant.  If we replace Violence with Trolling it fits perfectly in this forum.  EVERY SINGLE PERSON who had pre-ordered from BFL had the option to bail the beginning of May.  What's changed between May and Now?  Profitability.  Your money making machine is becoming worthless (and would have been worthless 10 months ago if it had shipped on time), not NOW your eyes are open and you can SEE the value disappearing before your eyes and NOW is the time to scream refund.

*I* did not order a money making machine, I ordered a piece of electronics to replace what I am currently using.  *I* researched the company, I read countless troll threads, I sifted through all the FPGA and ASIC ups and downs and *I* placed my order knowing full well the outcome.

It matters not now what I say any longer... the only replies I will get will be "TL;DR" or a 4 word snippet to obscure what I've said and make it into something else.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Wish I had BFL as a whole company on ignore. I'd be thousands of $$$ richer for it.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 500
You have proof it was outright lying and not a relay of information passed to them from their suppliers? 

Sure, dozens of quotes. Here's the latest:

http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/
Quote
Tape out August 2013

When they posted it, it may not have been an intentional lie (I suspect it was, but I can't prove that). But now that we're into the 2nd week of September they leave it there hoping to deceive customers into thinking they're making better progress than they are. So now it's simply a lie.

Lying by omission is lying by either omitting certain facts or by failing to correct a misconception. It could be a situation in which a misconception exists that the claimant is aware of but fails to correct.

Any good company (not BFL) when they knew that something they had said in the past will turn out not to come to fruition in the time frame that they hoped, they should say so. For example, today BFL probably knows it won't get all orders up until 7/7/2013 out the door by the end of September, so they should probably say something.

Lies of omission are still lies and BFL has had a bunch,
and although people will say that Josh used his weasel words like "we hope" "No guarantees" "Doing our best" etc etc.
The fact remains that the second he knows he is going to break a promise or not deliver on a statement, whether he said "we hope" or "we will" he should tell the customers so.

If his vendors screwed him over, there should be a post that says "Sorry my vendor has screwed me and here is why..."

But he doesn't and maybe he shouldn't the first time, or the second time, but we are on the 4th or 5th time.

and BCP19 (stands for Butterflylabs Corporate Puppet)  keep taking their side, I only replied because your quote appeared in someone elses message, otherwise your side of the story is always going to be:

"This user is currently ignored"

sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
 I spent the weekend reading through everything you wrote on this forum up until you got your refund.  
If one is not a sock puppet needing to remember the official story line, what kind of loser dedicates a weekend to digging around the circumstances of a message board foe?

THAT kind. The BFL twink.
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