Topic: [FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September - page 8. (Read 69478 times)

Yes first he said end of August,

Then on Sept 11th he said end of September

When he missed September he said about "2 weeks or so" to get April cleared,

Gave him until 3rd week of October for "2 weeks or so" April still not cleared.

2 weeks into November we are almost there.

So if you are keeping count, it will be about 110 days he missed it by if they are done by Monday November 18th.

And they still maintain their trophy of being 6+ months behind on shipping.


For more math:

In the last 110 days they have shipped 308 days of product, for an average of 2.8 days of product per day of shipping
(that's assuming 7 days a week shipping)

They have about 190 days of orders left to ship which I predict they will have done by early to mid January

hey joe, Could you put a nice shiny Negative countdown clock, so everyone can see Precisely just how wrong josh has been, For the 2nd year in a row.
He's like what... 70days past his original estimate so far?, No wait, hangon, Didnt he say it would be cleared by the end of August?

I guess it was better for my prediction to be off by a real two weeks than a Josh "Two Weeks ^tm"

Looks like April orders will be cleared between November 15th and November 18th.

2 1/2 months past the original prediction from Joshy.

He claims they have been shipping between 600-1000 units a day now.
On that premise, being 2.5 month late in his initial prediction, he was expecting to ship 2000-2500 per day to get done by the end of August?

Hmmm   really?

If there are degrees of being wrong, Geez this guy is the Olympian of Wrong

Yes I am sure they will ship.

Question is "when"

You think they will ship a Monarch at all? Not a Luke Jr stay in the lab shipment but to actual customers in the real world.

They are clicking off just one day of product a day,
That will likely let up, but my prediction for ALL backlogged orders to be shipped is:

March 1st, 2014

Their promise to finish 65nm stock before they ship Monarchs will be broken.

You read it here first.


Wednesday, November 6, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 5 gh/s: April 28, 2013

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: April 3, 2013

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: April 10, 2013 pay date

MiniRigs: June 14 (1st 500 gh/s), April 3 (2nd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Mar 2013 MiniRig orders complete.

From the COO of BFL Josh Zerlan:

Obviously we haven't made the October target for being done. We are getting close though... Very close. Looking at our remaining orders looks much better than two months ago.

We had another large day today, final tally 1027 shipped today at last count. I think we might start on the 50/25s next week I hope and those should go pretty quickly.

#END#


Update Joshy:

1.  "Done" is when you get the the 7 1/2 months of orders that haven't shipped yet out the door.
What you are shooting for is some artificial milestone you have set for yourself. We here call it when the poor bastards who paid twice the price start getting their paperweights.

2. So you looked at the remaining orders? That would have been advised 9 months ago then perhaps your "estimates" would have been more accurate

3. If you shipped 1027 units today then you are still in a quagmire of orders and you may clear April (as opposed to being "done") in two weeks ^tm to a month


Jalapenos, Little Singles and Singles, the Block Erupters of the current era.


Revenue on a Jalapeno that cost $274 with free electricity is $72.58 by October 2014 then it stops.

That is assuming difficulty increase of 120% a month.

If difficulty slows to 60% a month then it goes to $103 in revenue then stops.

BTC would have to go to $800 today for a Jalapeno to break even in a year.

P.S. quoting Josh in any thread is taken as "Here is a reference to a lie" and nothing more.

in Josh-Speak ^tm a mining device can be a single ASIC chip so a shipped single would be 16 mining devices.

5 days ago. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3406192


Quite true.

I mean that they sold coins mined by "testing" devices.
If they will show, that they got 1 million profit also from just testing devices, customers will hate them more, so maybe they just "bought" hardware by themself on mined coins.

Are they..
I dont remember that website listing a gazillion BFL preorders, so Ill use this for now to get an idea of their product mix ratio's :
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-sc-pre-order-information-monarch-orders-too-89685

jala's: 215
LS: 45
Single: 369
Minirig: 25

That list contains a total of 58TH divided over 657 units gives an average of 88GH per unit. So even using a single as default unit is probably understating it.


I recall it was months ago that I read that. I also read he was claiming shipping 300 units per day back in July (http://www.coindesk.com/inside-butterfly-labs-the-challenges-of-producing-bitcoin-mining-hardware/). Either way, even if its still "only" 20K units,  multiplied by 88GH gives 1.7PH and corresponds to $85M worth of asics shipped (and quite likely a multiple of that in unshipped preorders).

No matter how you look at it, the dollar count is staggering, and the gross profit margin would be close to 90%. As much as I would like to see otherwise, bankruptcy simply isnt gonna happen.

Of which the vast majority are Japs.

Josh has bragged about shipping over 20k units. They're no where near 100k units shipped.

I think you just dont realize how much BFL has sold and is shipping. My estimate is that they shipped over 1PH worth of 65nm asics by now. Thats 20,000 singles or 200,000 jalapeno's.  I dont know their product mix, but lets assume its close to 50/50, which would mean ~100K units.  They have been shipping them since April, do I remember that correctly? So less than 200 days and therefore ~500 units per day. Thats more than KnC managed.

Thats not to excuse BFL; if you have backlog of >100K units that are fully paid up front, there is no excuse not to invest in a supply chain to be able to deliver these things a whole lot faster. That 1PH would have netted them $50M and if we assume they are only 1/3 through their backorder log, they would have cashed in some $150M. Surely enough to rent a frigging large assembly hall and hire a boatload of people, preferably people with some relevant experience rather than Joshes,  or do what Hashfast did and contract a large specialist assembly plant. But thats the part they may have done on purpose; the slower they ship, the longer difficulty stayed low, and the more presales they generated. But BFL bankrupt? I dont think so.

Someone bought a million dollars worth of something from BFL and paid BitPay.

Pay attention

Wild theory:
They sold all mined coins by BitPay.

Someone just sent them a million dollars in BTC, so they are going to be around for a while