Topic: [FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September - page 9. (Read 69478 times)

After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.

So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.

Maybe BFL expected (even) more customers to trade their 65nm orders for 28nm miners and "mining by the GH". That way they could "finish" 65nm backlogs much  more quickly, and postpone the pain for BFL miners to next year.

Monday, October 28, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 5 gh/s: April 11, 2013  2 days progress

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: March 26, 2013   5 days progress

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: March 29, 2013 pay date   Dead stop

MiniRigs: April 1 (1st 500 gh/s), March 25 (2nd 500 gh/s) March 18 (3rd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Feb 2013 MiniRig orders complete.  Dead Stop



Now remember Jody said all assemblers, basically everyone who isn't accounting etc works 7 days a week

Strangely the progress from Friday to Monday is no better than the progress from Thursday to Friday.

Consistently abysmal.

April pre-orders should be cleared by August  September October  November

Two more days to November and some products lines still in MARCH!!

Josh says he makes predictions on the info he has at the time. Well when he makes these predictions he must be in a porta-john, tied up and blindfolded because they are SHIT!

+1 Use Bitbet not betsofbitco.in.

 Agreed. Betsofbitco.in cannot be trusted due to their poor judgement on the initial BFL shipping fiasco/bet where they considered a test rig sitting in Kansas that Luke-Jr has access to remotely, as legitimately shipping product.

 If anyone needs a history lesson, it was ~1-2 months after the bet date that product began physically shipping.

Sorry, you picked the wrong betting site. They have a huge problem with deciding bets the right way. Try http://bitbet.us/.

The Bets are back on...

Butterfly Labs Will NOT have all Gen 1 ASIC Pre Orders Shipped Out before 1st January 2014

April to October is 7 months in my book.  If they don't get all their product lines to April 1st in 4 days they are 7 months behind.

It is slipping to 7? Are they actually losing ground?

Friday wasn't much better

Friday, October 25, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: April 9, 2013  Moved one day

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: March 21, 2013  Moved 6 days

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: March 29, 2013 pay date  One day

MiniRigs: April 1 (1st 500 gh/s), March 25 (2nd 500 gh/s) March 18 (3rd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Feb 2013 MiniRig orders complete.  Dead stop


Still 42 pay dates to go to get April cleared up

At current rate they are still on track for Mid November to clear April 2013

Maintaining their "6 - 7 months behind"

Thursdays update:




Thursday, October 24, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: April 8, 2013  Stuck on this date for 2 days

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: March 15, 2013

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: March 28, 2013 pay date Stuck on this date for 4 days

MiniRigs: April 1 (1st 500 gh/s), March 25 (2nd 500 gh/s) March 18 (3rd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Feb 2013 MiniRig orders complete.

Oh there is ^^^ a sign of April right there!!!

There shipping department is so screwy, I have evidence that:

1. When they say your order has shipped, it hasn't. Takes as long as 2-3 days before it REALLY leaves the building
2. That they send multiple tracking numbers for the same order
3. When they say that X date has shipped they don't mean ALL the orders for that day, they mean they have started orders for that day

You are such a hardcore supporter but even you have to admit that anyone with a 5th grade education who works for BFL could look at the daily production levels, look at the book of business going forward, look back at the last 90 days and be able to make an informed estimate (with everything being the same, parts, people, hours in the day) on when stuff is going to be done.

BFLs incredibly bad ability to do this means one of two things, they are either not smarter than a 5th grader or they are intentionally giving bad information. I have made predictions in this thread alone a half a dozen times and been right more often than Josh is, how do you explain that?

I predicted they wouldn't clear April in September, even when Josh said on 9/11 that they would
I predict they wouldn't clear April in October and they won't
I predicted that the production would come to a near stop (pay date wise) because of the huge book of orders in March and they did.

All these things had a direct impact on Josh's estimates being (not a little) incredibly, hugely off the mark.

Yet I knew they were wrong crunching numbers that you and I know are both way off.

Please explain.


P.S. dont get me started about Jody who claims that the entire staff of assemblers/shippers etc work 7 days a week, yet Mondays numbers for shipping on any given week are never any better than the previous Friday when you would expect them to be 3 times Fridays numbers.

Thank you for your order from Butterfly Labs! Your order (#XXXXXXXX) was shipped via USPS, USPS Priority Mail Int'l on 10/24/2013.  You can track your package at any time using the link below.

This means that I will get my device in - when?  4 weeks or what?

Then I am FINALLY allowed to convert precious electricity in heat and watch my wallet bitcoin count grow by 1 mbtc per day. at most.

DIFFICULTY SO STRONK WOW

Latest updated above.

BFLs production hasn't moved in two days (except for Jalapenos which the outsource)

Those are tame. Just wait for the 400 mil diff change. Gonna hurt

If you get your BFL Single today it will mine BTC0.12 a day
your little single will mine BTC0.06 a day
and your Jalapeno will mine BTC0.01 a day

For those who ordered after April first and paid $2500 for a Single, you are just screwed.

For those of you waiting for your units from BFL....

If you look at your account and it says "Fulfilled" that means, no not that it's on it it's way, it means one more week until it's going to be built.

If your pay date was for example April 15th 2012 and Jody's blog says on Monday that all pay dates to April 15th have shipped, that means yours will ship tomorrow.

When you get the email with the tracking number, that means you can start tracking it tomorrow because it won't leave their facility for another day.

So when you see activity in your account (changes to fulfilled) your unit is about 10 days away!

That's the Butterfly labs shipping system where fulfilled means in a week
and shipped means tomorrow.

and Two Weeks means 8 months!!

Today is 3 weeks into "2 weeks or so" to clear April backlog orders.

Not a single unit from April has even been shipped.

Current prediction I have made for BFL (because they are math impaired) is November 15th before they clear April 2013 orders.

Not that its much of a milestone still being 6 months behind by Mid November.

The hope is that people came to their senses and the amount of orders in July-Oct of 2013 are few so that they can get through those "quickly"

It looks like 2014 before they get all the 65nm orders off their books.


Then the long wait for Monarch will begin  LOL

I do get things wrong now and then... I predicted 1PH by Sept 1st for example.  I also predicted 3PH before Oct 1st.  Guess I had too much faith in Bitfury, KnC, BPM, Cointerra, etc.  Looks like my 6PH before Nov will soon fall by the wayside as well.  I'd say it sucks to be wrong, but I'm making more money this way

Seemingly it's quantum physics for shills to understand. Anyhow not our target audience. Let's hope we can save some poor souls a lot of financial anguish.