In general, this is a rather funny competition: 10 participants, 6 of whom receive a direct ticket and another one gets into the play-offs, that is, out of 10 participants, 7 teams can get to the World Cup at once. Incredibly difficult tournament!
I know, I know... It is not that I really believe Brazil could miss this qualification, but you are certainly right with what you said. If they fail, or any team that fails, does not deserve to participate in the World Cup regardless of their name and history as a football nation. And there are so many games to go, which I believe still calms down the Brazilian team and they think nothing bad happened thus far.
But this is where I start developing this tiny doubt about them. If they still think this is not a dangerous situation for them, it could backfire. It is all still good and 12 games to go. But when they now lose two or three more games against opponents from below them in the table, this could really become a tough qualification for them. At first you lose a game because you play bad, but then, you know, the games go against you for unexpected reasons. Brazil dominates, but then there is this red card and the penalty. 20:1 shots but that one shot of the opponent hit the upper right angle of the goal... You know what I mean
Yes, I understand, sometimes absolutely incredible results happen, but the longer the distance, the more unlikely they are. There are 12 games ahead, which is 5 games more than in the Champions League playoffs. And as we know, the Champions League is always won by the same clubs, although the distance is shorter and we can assume that the dispersion will be greater.
In general, I have not checked, but I am sure that the bookmakers quote the probability of Brazil qualifying as 1.01. Moreover, taking into account the fact that the bet will be played only in 2025, we can say that this is a negative coefficient (lower than inflation).