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If Kompany can win all the average clubs and lose to Leverkusen and Leipzig, I think he will be able to win the league this season but I don't think that everything will go tossy for him like he expected. In the long run he would be face d with challenges when he has injured players. Kompany have started the season well by winning his matches but that doesn't mean that he has the ability to win the league because I see Leverkusen as a big challenge to him.
The real test for Kompany with Bayern Munich is when they face Leverkusen, Dortmund, and Leipzig. Because so far the teams Kompany has faced are not strong, so with two wins in those matches it is not a reference that Bayern Munich is strong enough to compete in the Bundesliga or the Champions League. Moreover, the Champions League has a new format, of course this will drain the players' energy and break the players' concentration, this is where Kompany's performance with Bayern Munich will be seen.
However, it must also be admitted that Bayern Munich with Kompany is currently making progress even though at first he was underestimated but now he is taken into account by his opponents. Kompany has succeeded in igniting a new spirit for Bayern Munich players. Bayern Munich are slowly becoming a solid team under Kompany's guidance in the Bundesliga and their progress has been good after they failed to retain their title last season against Leverkusen.
Overall I agree with you, but I would add Stuttgart as one more team to watch this season in the Bundesliga. Bayern Munich strength will be truly tested to the limit when facing fellow teams that have qualified for the Champions League, that's where we can also see Kompany managerial quality. Currently the standings have begun to form with a point difference, because Leverkusen and Stuttgat failed to get perfect points last week.
For the third week, it seems that Bayern Munich, Leverkusen, Dortmund, Leipzig and Stuttgart can secure full points, because the opponents they will face are relatively easier. Meanwhile, for the next two weeks before the Champions League starts, they can focus fully on the Bundesliga, preparing themselves well so that they can have a stable performance in every competition. Bayern Munich and Dortmund who have more experience in the Champions League seem to have no trouble with the change in match format, they are used to the pressure of a tight match schedule.
We realize Kompany has no experience coaching in the Champions League, the journey there could be very unstable, but with the depth of the squad he has, it seems Kompany can handle it well. Of course every manager has their own scale of priorities, they also have demands that must be prioritized, most likely they will prioritize winning domestic trophies.