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Topic: Gigamining / Teramining - page 113. (Read 216459 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1006
Lead Blockchain Developer
June 12, 2012, 04:13:20 AM
You could manually and privately borrow shares from someone else.

Or you can just bet that the difficulty will rise with someone else.

Appreciate the feedback.  I went and did some digging and discovered that GLBSE doesn't do it yet.  Stumbled across several deals in the works.  Unfortunately I'm not really the type to borrow stuff from peeps I don't know.  Maybe when GLBSE supports it I'll take another look.

legendary
Activity: 2053
Merit: 1356
aka tonikt
June 12, 2012, 04:07:59 AM
Why would it grow?
I already told you why: so Gigamining would not end up dead. Otherwise it will - despite of "growing"
It is a bond, not a share, the bond issuer wants their debt to end up dead.  Doesn't everyone?
Well, that's a good point Smiley
But GIGAMINING is not only a bond - it's also a business and a mark.
I was just thinking that GIGAMINING would maybe prefer to stay alive on GLBSE - having a reputation would make a further business easier.
Instead of just dying and re-appearing as GIGAMINING2, that gives 10MH/bond - which would make the business harder, because of the reputation Smiley
donator
Activity: 848
Merit: 1005
June 12, 2012, 04:02:11 AM
Anyone buying it are aware of this. They are all betting that the dropping of dividends will be slow enough to let the cover the initial price. You are just the one who bet on the opposite. If you are so confident about your bet, you could short the bonds.

How?  Is GBLSE setup to allow for shorts?  I don't see this working out for the little guy.

You could manually and privately borrow shares from someone else.

Or you can just bet that the difficulty will rise with someone else.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
June 12, 2012, 04:01:01 AM
Why would it grow?
I already told you why: so Gigamining would not end up dead. Otherwise it will - despite of "growing"

It is a bond, not a share, the bond issuer wants their debt to end up dead.  Doesn't everyone?
legendary
Activity: 2053
Merit: 1356
aka tonikt
June 12, 2012, 03:57:48 AM
Why would it grow?
I already told you why: so Gigamining would not end up dead. Otherwise it will - despite of "growing"
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
June 12, 2012, 03:56:25 AM

Of course it will happen. ASICs are there already and they will be getting cheaper and faster - month by month...

As far as I know, ASICs for Bitcoins are still in the designing phase and no actual chips are mining now. Could you point URL to me to support "are there already" please?
AFAIK, the butterfly labs hardware is based on ASICs.
And moreover, if anyone else is working on his own chip, he doesn't want to disclose this information.
There is a lot of money on stake here and turning an FPGA solution (which do exist) into a much cheaper ASIC is relatively easy nowadays.

If the 5MH/bond stays fixed forever, the dividends will get lower and lower and the bond price will eventually go down to zero - it's only a question of when.
Anyone buying it are aware of this. They are all betting that the dropping of dividends will be slow enough to let the cover the initial price. You are just the one who bet on the opposite. If you are so confident about your bet, you could short the bonds.
But it doesn't need to be like this.
As the business is growing, thus buying more efficient equipment, I see no reason why the promised 5MH could not grow along with it.
Otherwise new mining companies will appear, offering a better hashing power for a lower share price - while Gigaminig will end up dead.

Why would it grow?  You bought a debt obligation that will pay out whatever 5 MH/s makes.  That is like purchasing a bond that pays out 5% per year and hoping they increase it to 6% instead.
donator
Activity: 848
Merit: 1005
June 12, 2012, 03:53:59 AM
AFAIK, the butterfly labs hardware is based on ASICs.

Not yet. Their current Singles are FPGA-based. See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ok-i-confirmed-the-model-of-fpga-they-are-using-in-bfl-single-79825
Their Mini Rigs are probably made with the same kind of FPGA like bitfury's.

And moreover, if anyone else is working on his own chip, he doesn't want to disclose this information.
There is a lot of money on stake here and turning an FPGA solution into a much cheaper ASIC chip is relatively easy nowadays.

This is possible. But turning FPGA to ASIC is not cheap (the initial capital cost), and I don't know if it's very profitable given the current tiny market cap of the whole Bitcoin economy.

But it doesn't need to be like this.
As the business is growing, thus buying more efficient equipment, I see no reason why the promised 5MH could not grow along with it.
Otherwise new mining companies will appear, offering a better hashing power for a lower share price - while Gigaminig will end up dead.

I hate to advertise in other people's thread. So I will PM you about my business which is a little more similar to what you want.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1006
Lead Blockchain Developer
June 12, 2012, 03:48:00 AM
Anyone buying it are aware of this. They are all betting that the dropping of dividends will be slow enough to let the cover the initial price. You are just the one who bet on the opposite. If you are so confident about your bet, you could short the bonds.

How?  Is GBLSE setup to allow for shorts?  I don't see this working out for the little guy.
legendary
Activity: 2053
Merit: 1356
aka tonikt
June 12, 2012, 03:44:54 AM

Of course it will happen. ASICs are there already and they will be getting cheaper and faster - month by month...

As far as I know, ASICs for Bitcoins are still in the designing phase and no actual chips are mining now. Could you point URL to me to support "are there already" please?
AFAIK, the butterfly labs hardware is based on ASICs.
And moreover, if anyone else is working on his own chip, he doesn't want to disclose this information.
There is a lot of money on stake here and turning an FPGA solution (which do exist) into a much cheaper ASIC is relatively easy nowadays.

If the 5MH/bond stays fixed forever, the dividends will get lower and lower and the bond price will eventually go down to zero - it's only a question of when.
Anyone buying it are aware of this. They are all betting that the dropping of dividends will be slow enough to let the cover the initial price. You are just the one who bet on the opposite. If you are so confident about your bet, you could short the bonds.
But it doesn't need to be like this.
As the business is growing, thus buying more efficient equipment, I see no reason why the promised 5MH could not grow along with it.
Otherwise new mining companies will appear, offering a better hashing power for a lower share price - while Gigaminig will end up dead.
donator
Activity: 848
Merit: 1005
June 12, 2012, 03:38:14 AM

Of course it will happen. ASICs are there already and they will be getting cheaper and faster - month by month...

As far as I know, ASICs for Bitcoins are still in the designing phase and no actual chips are mining now. Could you point URL to me to support "are there already" please?


If the 5MH/bond stays fixed forever, the dividends will get lower and lower and the bond price will eventually go down to zero - it's only a question of when.


Anyone buying it are aware of this. They are all betting that the dropping of dividends will be slow enough to let the cover the initial price. You are just the one who bet on the opposite. If you are so confident about your bet, you could short the bonds.
legendary
Activity: 2053
Merit: 1356
aka tonikt
June 12, 2012, 03:28:15 AM
Or am I missing something?
Yep. THe fact that asics will push up difficulty into the stratosphere, rendering those 5MH even more worthless.
If anyone thinks Im wrong and wants to lend me these bonds for 6 - 12 months, pm me.
Of course it will happen. ASICs are there already and they will be getting cheaper and faster - month by month...
Having the new money gigamining will obviously buy a new and more efficient hardware - so for the current investors "growing" of the company makes sense only if the promised 5MH also keeps growing, along with the total number of shares...
If the 5MH/bond stays fixed forever, the dividends will get lower and lower and the bond price will eventually go down to zero - it's only a question of when.

And @ some of you guys, the big mr economists: you may be well educated on the field of economy, but you suck in basics of a logical thinking.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 12, 2012, 03:26:57 AM
stuff up to the interesting point

If you buy the bond at 1 (par) .....

Lol - par values went out with the dinosaurs and is not relevant (and it wasn't 1 anyway, and for most instruments would not have been 1).

Perhaps the recent 2.4M difficulty is in people's minds (15Th network speed) and with block reward changing, that is equiv of 4.8 or 1/3rd of current yield.  Yes, the perpetual bond pays, but what value is assigned to it will be interesting, especially if other assets promise higher returns.  It is an uncertain future and there was also the interesting post earlier that did mention the buyback clause, but that might just mean people trade at an inflated value to protect their investment.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
June 12, 2012, 02:27:25 AM
Or am I missing something?

Yep. THe fact that asics will push up difficulty into the stratosphere, rendering those 5MH even more worthless.
If anyone thinks Im wrong and wants to lend me these bonds for 6 - 12 months, pm me.
donator
Activity: 848
Merit: 1005
June 12, 2012, 02:25:37 AM
... as far as I can tell the payout's gonna get cut in half in 6 months.  

The block reward will get cut in half in 6 months, but some miners will close their operations, making difficulty down, so the payout won't necessarily drop so much.

Since the first chunk of the payout has to go to cover the power bill.

The essence of mining bond is that the coupon equals to exactly the declared MH/s will get, no more, no less, no electricity fee reduced from it. The issuer pays the electricity fee him/her-self.

So what's the endgame?  Everyone still gets 5Mh/s, dividend drops to nothing, shares drop to nothing, you buy them back?

It's basically the consideration between whether you long mining/short bitcoin or you long bitcoin/short mining. If you believe that the dropping speed will be very fast, you could short mining bonds or simply hold your bitcoins. If you believe the otherwise, just buy.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1006
Lead Blockchain Developer
June 12, 2012, 02:17:06 AM
Was considering investing, but I see that most peeps calculate out the payback at ~1 - 1&1/3 years and as far as I can tell the payout's gonna get cut in half in 6 months.  Since the first chunk of the payout has to go to cover the power bill, that means that what's left for investors is going to be far less than half of what the payout is now.

Hope that makes sense.  So what's the endgame?  Everyone still gets 5Mh/s, dividend drops to nothing, shares drop to nothing, you buy them back?

Or am I missing something?
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank
June 12, 2012, 02:12:49 AM
I think you entirely missed the point that there is a fixed BTC per unit of time produced by the network.
LOL. 200G/s is not The Network!  The Networks is cranking happily at 10+ Thash/s.
Lets see now, what happens to 100% of 5 MH/s (coupon) when diff changes

A. 100% of 5 MH/s at difficulty 1483177 will get you ~ ฿0.023736 per week
B. 100% of 5 MH/s at difficulty 1583177 will get you ~ ฿0.022236 per week
C. 100% of 5 MH/s at difficulty 1683177 will get you ~ ฿0.020915 per week

But...but... the fixed BTC per unit of time.
Oh now! If difficulty goes up, your 5 MH/s will earn you less coin! But...but... the fixed BTC per unit of time!? Difficulty is not calculated only form your personal mining speed of 5 Mh/s. Network, as a whole, got faster, diff goes up and you earn less because you are still at 5 Mh/s.
Is that news to you?

And just to make sure, you do not miss it, current yield (% what you will earn) is calculated "interest payment"/"price you paid for the bond".
Lets keep it simple and not get in to YTM, annual returns and other similar calculations.

If you buy the bond at 1 (par) that promises you 0.023736 per bond in time frame X, you will be earning 2,3% (yield) in that time frame (week, month, year).
If I buy that same bond (same coupon) for 0,75 I will be earning 0.023736 per timeframe like you but my yield is way better  - 3.1648% in that time frame.I invested less, to earn the same income.

As you see, Gigamining has not promised us fixed div but what ever 5 MH/s can do at any given difficulty.

And for fuck sake, those are actually not bonds but more like Floating Rate Notes (FRN) with a variable coupon that is linked to a mining speed X.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
June 12, 2012, 01:02:26 AM
Learning a lot of reading this last pages  Smiley
Just a question tho. How do you get this data?

                                .Open      .High      .Low       .Close       .Volume .Adjusted
2012-06-09 23:58:09  1.420000  1.497000 1.401100 1.497000     334     1.440984
2012-06-10 23:33:48  1.411100  1.411100 1.300100 1.300100    1026    1.361202
2012-06-11 15:17:18  1.375000  1.490000 1.010000 1.350000     966     1.406405

Got it from me which is from my GLBSE parser bot.  If people are interested I can have downloadable links of this data for all the assets on GLBSE.  If so, reply in one of my other threads (see my signature too) so as to not get off topic from GIGAMINING.
sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
June 12, 2012, 12:42:59 AM
Learning a lot of reading this last pages  Smiley
Just a question tho. How do you get this data?

                                .Open      .High      .Low       .Close       .Volume .Adjusted
2012-06-09 23:58:09  1.420000  1.497000 1.401100 1.497000     334     1.440984
2012-06-10 23:33:48  1.411100  1.411100 1.300100 1.300100    1026    1.361202
2012-06-11 15:17:18  1.375000  1.490000 1.010000 1.350000     966     1.406405
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 257
Trust No One
June 12, 2012, 12:41:34 AM
I was just looking at the Bitbonds and noticed that I could sell 100 and drive the price down to 0.0035!  Might be fun to do but - nah.  Most of the other order books are in similar shape.  We need to attract more buyers and make it easier to put up bids.  Margin/Credit accounts for trusted buyers would go a long way.  I know I have a hard time just letting my BTC sit there and sit there waiting for my order to fill.  If I could issue buy orders and pay for them later that sure would make a huge difference.

One thing that should be done is not to count trade fee when you are placing bids that don't match the ask side. That wouldn't do much but still. I'm against letting anyone to place bids without having his bid covered by BTCs.
BTW Bitbond is going to expand this Friday for undisclosed price, so many people took out their bids probably, including myself.
legendary
Activity: 2646
Merit: 1137
All paid signature campaigns should be banned.
June 12, 2012, 12:15:19 AM
I was just looking at the Bitbonds and noticed that I could sell 100 and drive the price down to 0.0035!  Might be fun to do but - nah.  Most of the other order books are in similar shape.  We need to attract more buyers and make it easier to put up bids.  Margin/Credit accounts for trusted buyers would go a long way.  I know I have a hard time just letting my BTC sit there and sit there waiting for my order to fill.  If I could issue buy orders and pay for them later that sure would make a huge difference.
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