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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1556. (Read 2032281 times)

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
March 13, 2012, 07:25:55 PM
#33
LOL, you're too smart to deduct that from today's action. Think about how much money went out of gold vs how much money went in bitcoin.
IMO you're trying to see an inverse correlation where it's not there (yet)
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
March 13, 2012, 07:18:12 PM
#32
very good sign IMO.

Did the Fed quit printing money??

no, but i think Bitcoin and gold will switch places.  it may take 8 yrs or so but i think it will happen.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 13, 2012, 07:16:12 PM
#31
very good sign IMO.

Did the Fed quit printing money??
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
March 13, 2012, 07:05:34 PM
#30
So will the gold bugs start fleeing the ship and buy some BTC? Grin

No way. Gold bugs are all about the physical. Their 40 year scenarios involve a global meltdown and general SYSTEM FAILURE, a "gold" that requires a functioning internet and power system would be laughable to them.

Then they have a perspective that is a bit sketchy... Unless they think that gold settlements can be accomplished without a functioning Internet and power system—perhaps via a convoy of Humvees...

Yes, laughable.


the 40 year global meltdown systemic failure goldbugs hoard bullion!

the hedging against semi-hyperinflation goldbugs are happy with there electronic gold, and there protective puts.

I think a bit of each is nice to have in any portfolio, along with your bitcoin Smiley

my views haven't changed.  i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400. 

$400 gold? That would be some payday, aye.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
March 13, 2012, 06:45:41 PM
#29
Be careful what you wish for, a large enough dip in gold could affect bitcoin prices quite a bit if some of the new bit-rich decide it's time to get some.

Who thinks that the gold bull market is over is delusional imo.
legendary
Activity: 1222
Merit: 1016
Live and Let Live
March 13, 2012, 06:33:42 PM
#28
Gold going down, mean that the economy 'feels' more safe (it isn't we are still perched on the edge of a cliff).
Therefore, value will move from Gold into more risky investment, such as Oil, and Bitcoin.  (and the stock market, but I would be staying away from that If I was you).
In another round… and if as Bitcoin becomes more respected and ‘safe,’  pressure from the continually devaluating dollar, will push value back into Bitcoin, and Gold.

Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to benefit from both saturations.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
March 13, 2012, 06:09:17 PM
#27
If there is a bubble with gold it's a small/medium one at best.
You must be kidding me too.

Do you really think you can just about buy the same stuff with Gold as you could 10 years ago? All just inflation? And if there has been growth in purchasing power, that it is all natural and not at all speculative? Grin Grin Grin

We're in a depression. One should expect to be able to purchase more with real money during a depression, as prices fall. Again, don't measure prices with USD. Measure prices with gold. Hard to do when everything on the shelf says USD, but it's a good habit to form.

And I never said the gold price was "all natural" and "not at all speculative." Who knows? I just know that the gold price can go up forever (and will) if money is printed forever, so one should not assume that the rise over the past 10 years is just a temporary gold bubble. For the most part, the rise of the gold price over the past hundred years is just an inversion of the decline in the value of the US dollar and it's important that people understand that.
sr. member
Activity: 456
Merit: 250
March 13, 2012, 04:53:45 PM
#26
gold collapsing? thats laughable.. just a good time to buy more.. its just going to keep going up and up.... silver too!

In the 70's, a silver dime bought a gallon of gas. Today, a silver dime still buys a gallon of gas. Ponder on that Wink

never thought about that.. interesting
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
March 13, 2012, 04:53:35 PM
#25
Thanks for you opinion cypherdoc, no hate here either.
I mainly disagree with you on the date of bitcoin mass adoption, thus i think we have more upside for PM for a few years. But it'll happen.
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1064
Bitcoin is antisemitic
March 13, 2012, 04:45:35 PM
#24
... i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400.  i think that we are about to embark on a massive debt deleveraging phase which will be deflationary and take stocks down with it to test the March 09 lows at least. ...
i'm going to try and not say much more as i could be wrong and i know the gold bugs are going to start swarming with the hate.

No hate. I had my nice 30% haircut having gold in 2008 and I can agree with your short term prophecy of a dip (but $400 is way over the top), but I did not abandon the gold ship and I am happy for it. In the long term, until asians keep liking and buying gold, I see it as the most safe asset -provided that is gold that you can hold.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
March 13, 2012, 04:35:52 PM
#23
And you still think Bitcoin won’t be affected by a USD deflation?

To me it seems like the first asset to be liquidated in terms of risk.

you asked me this before and i said then that it could drop too.  but i still think its tremendously undervalued and could behave unpredictably to the upside similar to the argument that the gold bugs advance that in crisis, whether it be inflation or deflation, they feel gold will rise.  the reason i think gold falls in a deflation is that i feel we're at the end of a 12 yr bull in gold/silver as well as all the other arguments against it outlined many times before.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
March 13, 2012, 04:30:52 PM
#22
And you still think Bitcoin won’t be affected by a USD deflation?

To me it seems like the first asset to be liquidated in terms of risk.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
March 13, 2012, 04:27:29 PM
#21
the $DXY is screaming "look out" for all risk assets including gold and oil.

 
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
March 13, 2012, 04:22:01 PM
#20
Do you have any target on gold/silver cypherdoc ?
I have to admit that i didn't believe you back in July, even if a correction clearly made sense.
Now the real question is where the bottom will be... We're not there yet, i do think PM will go down with stocks, and the correction in stocks should happen (soon ?).





Gaud, the last thing i want to do is create another massive thread like the "Gold-I smell a trap" one over in Economics that went on for 5 months.  it was just too much work.  most ppl here into gold/silver won't like what i have to say so don't bother reading further.

my views haven't changed.  i think gold/silver is a relic of the past and Bitcoin will assume its place as a new standard.  i think gold drops to $400.  i think that we are about to embark on a massive debt deleveraging phase which will be deflationary and take stocks down with it to test the March 09 lows at least.  we may drift a few more days higher in the Dow before it rolls over.  i see divergences everywhere but especially with the Transports, Russell, and ALL commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, copper and gold/silver.  the silver chart especially is busted.  the general mining stocks are telegraphing hard times ahead like FCX, TCK, BHP.  the junior miners have been devastated as in GDXJ.  GDX is following it down.

there's a good chance Wall St and the Fed are desperately trying to manipulate the Dow higher to get retail investors back in but don't buy it.  once we roll they will sell/short you into oblivion.  the Vix did an underthrow today once again to try and create complacency.

i'm going to try and not say much more as i could be wrong and i know the gold bugs are going to start swarming with the hate.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
March 13, 2012, 04:11:11 PM
#19
If there is a bubble with gold it's a small/medium one at best.
You must be kidding me too.

Do you really think you can just about buy the same stuff with Gold as you could 10 years ago? All just inflation? And if there has been growth in purchasing power, that it is all natural and not at all speculative? Grin Grin Grin
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
March 13, 2012, 04:02:58 PM
#18
Excellent point by evoorhees about gold/USD, that is simply spot on. Just look at the inflation corrected USD price of gold and it looks very different. If there is a bubble with gold it's a small/medium one at best.

Regarding oil I have to say that a more relevant factor is how much oil can you get with the amount of money regular people and governments and companies have available. Oil isn't bought with silver, it's bought with USD, so that's really what matters. The fact is that compared to the amount of USD people have on average, oil prices have been increasing.

The issue is a slowly developing one and mostly hidden though. It's the friction that even a $5/barrel increase will cause to the global economy, that really matters. In fact most of the world's food production is entirely dependent on oil and thus food prices are very interlinked with oil. Peak oil only happened after 2005 so we've only just started with the peak oil era.

With the way things are now, China alone will use half of all available oil at the end of this decade. Production is not growing, it's slowly declining. Yet demand is growing at a high rate. There will most likely be a moment when not only the prices spike, but whole countries will stop exporting oil, just like Russia stopped exporting wheat for a while, while back. The reasoning being that the countries will want to make sure that they have enough oil left for themselves.

So the truth is that most of the oil spikes recently are actually due to troubles in the middle east, but hidden behind all of that is the accelerating increase in fundamental oil scarcity. Once oil demand growth starts to slow down significantly and even better, when the demand starts to decline, I'll start thinking positively about the current situation. Until then I'll say that things are about to get much worse before they get better.

I also think that all the major countries are well aware of this. USA, Russia and China are all increasing their military spending and increasing their efforts to sustain a power base and good relations with major oil producing countries. Hell, the main reason US has been focusing on the middle east and is now focusing all military efforts in Asia, is exactly this.
legendary
Activity: 1330
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N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
March 13, 2012, 03:57:05 PM
#16
Gold is not going up. It's the dollar that's losing value.

If anything in the marketplace should be the yardstick of value, it is gold, not USD. So you should price USD in terms of gold and you will see a very different picture. Don't let the "upward run" of gold deceive you. Gold isn't changing, the dollars are.
Are you kidding me? The gains in Gold the last 10 yrs or so reflect much more than just the inflation, it’s a speculative bubble.
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1006
this space intentionally left blank
March 13, 2012, 03:56:45 PM
#15
I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.

Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.

I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.

Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.


upvote!
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
March 13, 2012, 03:51:08 PM
#14
It's about time people start realizing that all the massive growth our civilization experienced in the 20th century is mainly thanks to cheap and abundant fossil fuels. Energy is still abundant, in fact it's more abundant thanks to renewable energies, but it's far from cheap. Energy is getting more expensive all the time because energy demand is growing higher and at the same time energy sources with high EROEI are becoming more and more scarce.

Actually, gasoline costs just as much as it did 30 years ago. Price energy in real money, like gold, and you'll come to different conclusions.

In the 70's, a silver dime bought a gallon of gas. Today, a silver dime still buys a gallon of gas. Ponder on that Wink
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