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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1552. (Read 2032281 times)

legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 06:05:26 PM
Sure thing. I suppose it very much depends on whether one thinks on how he will continue with his ongoing hand to mouth existence or what kind of pension he will have X years down the road.



Yup, gotta have hand to mouth before you can figure out 20 years down the road Wink.

But stacking gold isn't going to bite you in the ass in 20 years, I guarantee it Wink
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 06:03:00 PM
Sure thing. I suppose it very much depends on whether one thinks on how he will continue with his ongoing hand to mouth existence or what kind of pension he will have X years down the road.

But a good one bringing visual aids into the argument, that is a strong move, indeed. No seriously.

P.S. there is an awesome book out there, google "How to Win Every Argument The Use and Abuse of Logic-Mantesh". Know it by heart and you could win this argument, even if you are wrong. Unfortunately some people get upset when you use black magic described there on them. Everything has it's downsides.


legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 05:57:16 PM
lol, this reminds me of this cartoon.



Definition of Inflation:  higher prices: an increase in the supply of currency or credit relative to the availability of goods and services, resulting in higher prices and a decrease in the purchasing power of money.

I go by goods and services that the 99% uses/needs.  If thats wrong then so be it, but thats how I define inflation/deflation.

If you want to define it by real estate and equities, so be it Wink,  thats not how I do it.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 05:46:29 PM
I would suggest that when talking about deflation in Japan it is not correct to look at commodities and energy prices and it's  derivatives or imported goods simply because those are not that much influenced by Japan's economy or monetary policy. You should really be looking at equities and local real estate prices and wages.

I'd say that the difference between what's going on now in US/EU and the Japanese scenario is that Japan had a little local screw up while the rest of the world basically minded it's own business. While it seem now we are on course to quite a global "cluster f*(^&" here.




legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 05:25:01 PM
Yeah, because no one needs to eat or drive..

So its your contention that the price of gas and food didn't inflate in Japan over any multi year time period you want to specify??

Its your contention that the CPI by not including gas and food is a "real" measure of inflation?

hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 05:21:56 PM
silverbox, unfortunately your argument is a logical fallacy and therefore cannot be taken seriously. You use an anecdotal evidence and using wrong time periods at the same time.

To illustrate, it is like responding on statement like, say "in county X unemployment was rising during period from 1990 to 2006" by saying "no it is false because this guy I know got himself a new job in 2009".

As such, I have no choice but to dismiss your last post as utter nonsense, with all due respect.

legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 05:11:01 PM
phh, thats the fake CPI that says the US has only like 2% inflation, lol.

http://www.wnd.com/2008/03/59409/

A loaf of bread in Japan in 2000 was half the price of today..

As was a gallon of gas..

oh but those don't count.. *rolls eyes*
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 05:06:22 PM
lol, that's what they want you to think.

Ok, *shrug*.  Don't believe the way it really is..  There will be NO deflation.

I am wondering why Japanese were not able to "just buy things" using your model, for like decades now. They must be stupid or something. Or maybe there is some kind of magic bullet that is available to the fed but was never available to Japan's central bank.



wtf??? Japan didn't have any deflation!

sure

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation#In_Japan

I love this little snippet:

Quote
Deflation started in the early 1990s. The Bank of Japan and the government tried to eliminate it by reducing interest rates and 'quantitative easing', but did not create a sustained increase in broad money and deflation persisted. In July 2006, the zero-rate policy was ended.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 05:05:28 PM
lol, that's what they want you to think.

Ok, *shrug*.  Don't believe the way it really is..  There will be NO deflation.

I am wondering why Japanese were not able to "just buy things" using your model, for like decades now. They must be stupid or something. Or maybe there is some kind of magic bullet that is available to the fed but was never available to Japan's central bank.



wtf??? Japan didn't have any deflation!
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 05:02:00 PM
lol, that's what they want you to think.

Ok, *shrug*.  Don't believe the way it really is..  There will be NO deflation.

I am wondering why Japanese were not able to "just buy things" using your model, for like decades now. They must be stupid or something. Or maybe there is some kind of magic bullet that is available to the fed but was never available to Japan's central bank.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
March 14, 2012, 04:59:35 PM
lol, that's what they want you to think.



you have no idea how right you are on this one.

the Fed needs the speculators on Wall St to drive asset appreciation.  initially at the bottom of cycle, the young punk traders are more than happy to borrow from the discount window at 0.25% and jack all markets to ridiculous highs.  all the retail and pension get excited near the top and jump in, especially on a breakout like we've just had, only to be met with a selloff and shorting opportunity for the punks to fleece everyone.

they know they can't just drive the system into a hyperinflation b/c they know that will just destroy the system.

this is where we are right now.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 04:56:40 PM
...
it'll be an all-one-market effect with USD up and everything else down.  the Fed won't be able to print fast enough and the printing that they do comes with some trepidation b/c if they destroy the USD, their only tool, they then self destruct.

I strongly suspect that TPTB are fully aware of, and largely in control of, the demise of the USD.  Far from 'self destruction', I suspect that it will be a great leap forward for them.

If _I_ were doing the engineering, I would formulate things such that a bulk of the population were in need of the support of the government for survival.  Like having government issued and government re-charged debit cards for buying food, paying bills, obtaining health care, etc.  In this way the population is dis-incentivezed toward picking up guns or stirring up trouble on twitter, and will likely be antagonistic to those who reject the new monetary solution as such people (i.e., us Bitcoin users and those of us who might hold PM's) would be a legitimate threat to their survival.

As an added benefit of such a scheme, inflation could be tuned by putting card holders into debt.  Indebtedness is especially effective in keeping people working for limited pay so that is another feature of such a scheme.



Wink are you by chance selling tinfoil hats?? 
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
March 14, 2012, 04:54:16 PM
...
it'll be an all-one-market effect with USD up and everything else down.  the Fed won't be able to print fast enough and the printing that they do comes with some trepidation b/c if they destroy the USD, their only tool, they then self destruct.

I strongly suspect that TPTB are fully aware of, and largely in control of, the demise of the USD.  Far from 'self destruction', I suspect that it will be a great leap forward for them.

If _I_ were doing the engineering, I would formulate things such that a bulk of the population were in need of the support of the government for survival.  Like having government issued and government re-charged debit cards for buying food, paying bills, obtaining health care, etc.  In this way the population is dis-incentivezed toward picking up guns or stirring up trouble on twitter, and will likely be antagonistic to those who reject the new monetary solution as such people (i.e., us Bitcoin users and those of us who might hold PM's) would be a legitimate threat to their survival.

As an added benefit of such a scheme, inflation could be tuned by putting card holders into debt.  Indebtedness is especially effective in keeping people working for limited pay so that is another feature of such a scheme.

legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 04:48:16 PM
lol, that's what they want you to think.

Who will they buy this stuff from once they bought all of it already?



lol if they try to buy all the stuff they will drive the prices sky high, hyper inflation..  They only have to buy enuf to keep deflation from occuring, its not that much.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 04:46:03 PM
#99
lol, that's what they want you to think.

Ok, *shrug*.  Don't believe the way it really is..  There will be NO deflation.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
March 14, 2012, 04:44:59 PM
#98
There is data out there that QE's have diminishing effect. The game is up and deflation is upon us. All assets but cash will fall in this scenario, gold and stocks and in most countries housing are the first to the block.
My goodness, a Bitcoin bearish Vladimir? Grin Grin

i think Bitcoin surprises everyone.  look at the last few days since gold has been plummeting.  Bitcoin UP.
Really, I’m not sure on this one.

My fear is that Bitcoin is viewed as such a risky asset that it’ll be the first to be sold off once people really NEED some cash. Also that in times of depression, people won’t have the time and resources to build up the fragile hobbyist thing Bitcoin is atm.

I sure hope it will surprise me though. I’ve always viewed it as the next Gold.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 04:44:07 PM
#97
lol, that's what they want you to think.

Who will they buy this stuff from once they bought all of it already? You do realise that we are talking about amount of money that is greater then valuation of all the hard assets in existence already.

legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 04:41:24 PM
#96
I don't see it.  The Fed can print at any rate they want.

I do not think it is the case. It is debt money. They only can print when someone borrows. However we have fractional reserve, that is already insane. It is simply a question of what's happening quicker new borrowing or defaults.


The way the Fed creates money is to buy stuff..  They make the money out of thin air and buy stuff...  If they want to put more money into the system, they can just start buying houses, cars, mortgage backed securities, planes, land, T-bills whatever.. Most of the money the fed creates goes to buy T-bills, so the Treasury/Fed Goverment gets first use of the "new" money, at the old rates, then the new money trickles into the system creating inflation..  But if the Fed wants to inject tons of money into the system, they can, at any time, in a variety of ways..
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1001
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March 14, 2012, 04:37:17 PM
#95
I don't see it.  The Fed can print at any rate they want.

I do not think it is the case. It is debt money. They only can print when someone borrows. However we have fractional reserve, that is already insane. It is simply a question of what's happening quicker new borrowing or defaults. What they do now is they are trying to balance this while hiding true defaults, sooner or later they fail at this "balancing act" and then we have either super inflation or super deflation or most likely both one after another.

As result of it this generation and the next generation will have no any further appetite for debt for quite some time. I think this theory is described reasonably well here http://kondratieffwinter.com/blog/k-wave/kondratieff-summary/



legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
March 14, 2012, 04:34:47 PM
#94
There is data out there that QE's have diminishing effect. The game is up and deflation is upon us. All assets but cash will fall in this scenario, gold and stocks and in most countries housing are the first to the block.
My goodness, a Bitcoin bearish Vladimir? Grin Grin

i think Bitcoin surprises everyone.  look at the last few days since gold has been plummeting.  Bitcoin UP.

I wouldn't call a drop from 1775 to 1630 a plummet, but it has went down Wink
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