Useless speculation from way-too-early data (and they included Christie? Really??): Assuming there is no Cruz and Cruz goes mostly to Paul and Ryan (instead of Perry and Bush), Paul and Ryan cannot both compete and win unless both Bush and one other in "that subfaction" (Perry, Huckabee, or Santorum) also run, though Bush would still likely win unless Rubio endorsed either Paul or Ryan, where it'd become a pretty level playing field.
You can count Huckabee, Perry, and Santorum as Bush, while Cruz(?) and Rubio can be counted as either Ryan or Paul. Wildcards are made up of Christie and Walker. Most likely, the "tea party" subfaction will be split up while the "establishment" subfaction will only consist of the most likely victor (Bush or Huckabee). During play-out, I imagine the vast majority of money will back Bush for a lack of known stances nation-wide and that ability to be "convictionally flexible" while fundraising.
I'll go ahead and make my prediction now just for the sake of being able to look back and laugh:
(establishment) Bush - 33%
(compromise) Cruz - 28%
(radical) Paul - 16%
(weird old uncle) Unknown guy like Herman Cain who pops up out of nowhere next year - 14%
Stragglers: 9%
Dem side has a lot of unknowns. Very weak candidates. I don't know half the people listed, though I think Warren would be a smart choice for them, which is why I doubt she'll be in the primary. Booker T Washington has 3%??
I doubt Hillary could run.
I'll crystal-ball for them, too:
(compromise) Cuomo - 39%
(establishment) Unknown person who pops out of the woodworks - 20%
Stragglers: 17%
(weird old uncle) Biden - 14%
(radical) Other unknown person - 10%
Unimaginable to have a Dem next term, but with an opponent like Bush, very possible. ETA: Dem establishment candidate may be Rahm Emanuel who's "endorsed" Clinton.
