Ok guys, we could refund batch 1-5. (Yifu changed the dates for refund so that our batch 5 slipped in barely) Since i think that nearly all buyers of complete batches will get refunds and yifu will get 400000 chips on wednesday i think all of our batches would be delivered fast. So it probably wouldnt be a disadvantage instead being in batch 1 to be in batch 6 or so. Though batch 6 cant be refunded anyway. On the other hand the first batches cant be kept only because a couple hundred chips want to be kept because who will pay the rest? So there has to be collecting of some kind.
We are at 6500 chips that want to be kept. 22000 undecided. 6000 chips from batch 6 we have to keep. Batches 1-5 could be refunded in theory. When i calculate the numbers i have higher then 12046 chips would be kept at the end. Of course the less active could decide differently from the active users.
What to do? Yifu gets his chips on wednesday. That means one, two days until we need to decide. It shouldnt be decided fast, that only raises chance of failures.
In theory i only could to it wrong. When i decide to refund batch 2-5 there will be trouble because chips are over. When i decide to refund 1-5 only 6000 remains and we are already at 6500.
Please tell me what to do. Its not an easy question i think.
Maybe i only should refund down from batch 5, 4 and so on. And only when i know enough chips are together to meet that number.
IMHO, set a deadline for binding answers from groupbuy members.
After all the answers you could use chips from those who did not answer as a buffer.
Those who did not answer are apparently not interested in refund, so use their chips
to get the proper amount to fill a 10k batch. Use first unanswered chip buyers from
batch #6 as it is not refundable. If more is needed from earlier batches...roll a dice