At last something is happening 
And that something is very bad news IMHO. Not to double post:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3051942
Topic: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6 ordered (Closed) - page 17. (Read 125254 times)
August 31, 2013, 03:22:46 PM
And that something is very bad news IMHO. Not to double post:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3051942
August 31, 2013, 03:10:33 PM
SebastianJu announced on German thread he had opened refund ticket for batches #3 to #5:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3050577
Then came Avalon newsletter where Yifu is accepting refunds only for chip orders made before June 1st:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3051519
At last something is happening
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3050577
Then came Avalon newsletter where Yifu is accepting refunds only for chip orders made before June 1st:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3051519
At last something is happening
August 31, 2013, 06:46:51 AM
Yes, statistically its enormous sample, and this ratio (3829 / 25915 = 14.77% want to receive the chips) will almost certainly apply to total number of chips.
It's not a representative sample, though. The kind of people who check this forum daily (or more!) may have very different wishes from the kind of people who are less interested in following progress. So the proportion for those other buyers might be very different (either more or less than 14.7%).
roy
August 31, 2013, 06:41:03 AM
Yifu practically revealed Avalon has no chips to deliver as he now favors
refunds over more waiting and/or new chips with cheaper price.
refunds over more waiting and/or new chips with cheaper price.
That was not how I read YiFu's words, unless he's posted something new that I've missed. Of various options that the community presented to him, such as refunds, partial refunds, extra chips or upgrades to next gen chips, he said his prefered option was refunds for those who want them.
I don't think he ever said he wants people to refund - just that he prefers that option to other forms of compensation that the community had proposed.
roy
August 31, 2013, 06:22:06 AM
After crawling through pm's in hours half of the members got back to me. 3829 Chips want to be kept and 22086 REfund. 30085 have to claim still.
Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.
I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.
Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.
I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.
You could just apply the same response ratio to the remaining unanswered chips, if they still have not responded in time
Yes, statistically its enormous sample, and this ratio (3829 / 25915 = 14.77% want to receive the chips) will almost certainly apply to total number of chips. Problem is that 15% of 56.000 chips is 8.400 chips, so not enough for a whole batch. If batches #2 - #6 get the refund and all wanted chips from these groups go to batch #1, there is still 1.600 chips in batch #1 that nobody wants. That is what Sebastian was talking about. We have to together buy those chips, 1.600 of 46.000 is not much = 3.5%, so everybody should accept 3.5% less than full return to buy those chips with this money. We can donate those chips to somebody (burnin, BKKcoins?) or put them on the lottery like before and one lucky bastard can take them all. And we all get refunds!
Edit:
On second thought it would be most fair to leave those 1.600 chips to Sebastian for some compensation to him. This is my official vote what to do with them.
August 31, 2013, 06:19:16 AM
I have not replied yet.. I have been away for 4 days and am trying to catch up with events.
Am I right in the following
1. It has been suggested chip batches may be refunded, but not defiantly and no time line for how long to refund (like batch 3).
2. Further hold up on chips, no reason, no time line on delivery.
If chips where ready to ship I would keep them.
If chips are expected in 6 weeks + , I would like a refund.
It would be great to have a little more incite on whats going on. If i have missed something let me know..
Am I right in the following
1. It has been suggested chip batches may be refunded, but not defiantly and no time line for how long to refund (like batch 3).
2. Further hold up on chips, no reason, no time line on delivery.
If chips where ready to ship I would keep them.
If chips are expected in 6 weeks + , I would like a refund.
It would be great to have a little more incite on whats going on. If i have missed something let me know..
Yifu had one good day last Thursday and actually responded to people.
No timelines for possible chip refunds of course (this is Avalon) but he
finally handled all Avalon miners batch#3 refunds in one day, which
had been on limbo for months.
There have been no news of anybody getting chips since zefir's batch #2.
Yifu practically revealed Avalon has no chips to deliver as he now favors
refunds over more waiting and/or new chips with cheaper price.
August 30, 2013, 11:21:27 PM
After crawling through pm's in hours half of the members got back to me. 3829 Chips want to be kept and 22086 REfund. 30085 have to claim still.
Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.
I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.
Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.
I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.
You could just apply the same response ratio to the remaining unanswered chips, if they still have not responded in time
August 30, 2013, 07:22:15 PM
I have not replied yet.. I have been away for 4 days and am trying to catch up with events.
Am I right in the following
1. It has been suggested chip batches may be refunded, but not defiantly and no time line for how long to refund (like batch 3).
2. Further hold up on chips, no reason, no time line on delivery.
If chips where ready to ship I would keep them.
If chips are expected in 6 weeks + , I would like a refund.
It would be great to have a little more incite on whats going on. If i have missed something let me know..
Am I right in the following
1. It has been suggested chip batches may be refunded, but not defiantly and no time line for how long to refund (like batch 3).
2. Further hold up on chips, no reason, no time line on delivery.
If chips where ready to ship I would keep them.
If chips are expected in 6 weeks + , I would like a refund.
It would be great to have a little more incite on whats going on. If i have missed something let me know..
August 30, 2013, 05:41:37 PM
I meant the percentage the difficulty is rising in average the last 30 days. It went from 46% to 71% to 94% to 110%. Normal exponential rising would be a percent number, thats it. But we have rising percent numbers on top.
My bad, if I read your message again its clear that it's about the percentage of the difficulty.
Just a case of dyslexia.
August 30, 2013, 05:32:28 PM
I know now that marto74 is full of small open source devs that don't really want a refund but would rather keep their small amount of chips to play with. I have a small buy in his order... probably batch 6 I think.
Moving on to more legit companies like Hashfast and Cointerra that give real names and address to their employees. I am hosting babyjets and terrahashs for group buy in shares on them.
Buy some shares with your Yufi refund.. or hope to like me.
Regards
Edit...
I do not speak on behalf of the marto74 group buy... there is not much convo in there but I do not know their opinion.
Moving on to more legit companies like Hashfast and Cointerra that give real names and address to their employees. I am hosting babyjets and terrahashs for group buy in shares on them.
Buy some shares with your Yufi refund.. or hope to like me.
Regards
Edit...
I do not speak on behalf of the marto74 group buy... there is not much convo in there but I do not know their opinion.
August 30, 2013, 04:17:48 PM
I meant the percentage the difficulty is rising in average the last 30 days. It went from 46% to 71% to 94% to 110%. Normal exponential rising would be a percent number, thats it. But we have rising percent numbers on top.
Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.
Could you help me out there? What percentage?
I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.
Could you help me out there? What percentage?
August 30, 2013, 04:03:57 PM
I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.
Could you help me out there? What percentage?
Also difficulty rising percentage growing all the time while BitFury devices has gone online(atleast 107 ghash,https://ghash.io), Avalon delivered some chips(i think at least 25T) and BFL seems to get something out, new Asic manufacturers are going in before end of 2013 (November,October,December). Currently in January at least BitBurner 20 will use more power that get bitcoins(http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/acb725f391).
August 30, 2013, 03:21:17 PM
I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.
Could you help me out there? What percentage?
August 30, 2013, 02:46:39 PM
After crawling through pm's in hours half of the members got back to me. 3829 Chips want to be kept and 22086 REfund. 30085 have to claim still.
Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.
I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.
Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.
I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.
August 30, 2013, 02:43:54 PM
I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.
August 30, 2013, 02:18:42 PM
I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.
But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!
August 30, 2013, 08:54:15 AM
Has anybody actually though that yifu might have wanted to have a lot of BTC to make a lot of BTC To shift the market up and down??
i might be talking crap but it is a big possibilty.
Sebastian i got your inbox and will be talking to the other members of our group today
Thanks.
i might be talking crap but it is a big possibilty.
Sebastian i got your inbox and will be talking to the other members of our group today
Thanks.
August 30, 2013, 08:14:19 AM
The thing is... who will pay the 9500 chips that remains? You? Iam? Or will you find a buyer? Or which of the buyers should be forced to buy anyway? I mean it wouldnt be fair to move all chips to batch 1 then because all batch 1 buyers cant get a refund than. In this case in theory no one could get a refund because every batch would contain some buyers that want to keep. Thats the problem here. So i think the only solution at the end would be to handle this democratic since the solution is somewhat black or white. The choice in between is slim.
But i already posted a question to zefir if we could merge such chips into one batch that isnt refunded in case we only get enough chips together with other groupbuys.
If nothing works i guess there still will be some chips are sold somewhere that could be bought. At least Yifu most probably will have a good amount of chips at the end that he only can sell for low prices.
But i already posted a question to zefir if we could merge such chips into one batch that isnt refunded in case we only get enough chips together with other groupbuys.
If nothing works i guess there still will be some chips are sold somewhere that could be bought. At least Yifu most probably will have a good amount of chips at the end that he only can sell for low prices.
One possible solution is refunding 5 batches divided between everyone who wants a refund. In this case everyone may receive as little as 5/6 of the initial cost. The remainder of the first batch may be taken by you. I believe most buyers will be OK with that.
August 29, 2013, 11:55:20 PM
I think to minimise the stress to Sebastian, we shouldn't be thinking of "ifs", just hope that everyone PMs him in a timely manner with their PREFERRED action, and after either everyone has got back to him, or a set time, tally up how many chip orders remain, and then see the situation (maybe counting people who have not been heard from as still wanting their orders).
Alex
Alex
August 29, 2013, 08:20:52 PM
I really hope that at least there is 1 batch left & make combine with zefir is good choise indeed.
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