the way you've tended to address me so far has not encouraged any productive communication. there's alot in that paragraph of yours. what is it you want me to answer?
Oh just looking for a civil discussion on any or all points brought up in that post.
Or since you have such close ties with HashFast, maybe their opinion?
You can't deny that the landscape has changed regarding pricing since they've first announced their pricing. There are a number of other companies starting to come out with their prices and estimated delivery around the same time for much less.
at least you and i can now make some progress.
the Dec 31 Refund Policy is something they had in place before i even met them. how they arrived at it, i don't know. i can tell you that from their perspective it's fair and they've said that they fully plan on honoring it using different options i alluded to up further in this thread.
as for taking cc's we've already gone over that and if you really disagree you should bring it up with them.
the only change in "pricing" that i'm aware of is KNC's reduction to $5000 in Nov. imo, and mine alone, it seems a little bit of a desperate move to retain customers. the question is, can they deliver at that price and still remain profitable? since you were at HashFast and signed an NDA, i'm sure that you're aware that HF believes their chip has significant performance efficiency advantages over KNC's as well as lower production costs.
perhaps they have every right to have there pricing at $5600 which also happens to be the currently the best value out there? no one actually knows until these chips and machines are actually out there chugging away.
I can agree that the power efficiency is probably much better if just looking at those numbers, however until coins received vs electric costs get to that level KnC Shipping quicker is much better (and the $600 you'd save would easily pay for the electricity gap between the lifetime of the machines)
However don't mistake this as me defending KnC, there are others being mentioned as well. xCrowd, "Smart Machine" that just popped up. There will be others but those two are saying they are going to be offering $6/GH for their products.
Personally I think any above $10/GH won't see the light of day in terms of ROI come end of October (This being if KnC Ships)
I think companies need to expect $3-7/GH by November to see a return. However at that rate even KnC doesn't look like a good deal.
BUT come to think of it, KnC knows how many orders they potentially need to deliver. If they feel the $5,000 price for their unit is a good deal then maybe I'm over speculating the Hashrate they will release.
Who knows, for me personally I won't buy another mining machine until we figure out exactly what companies CAN deliver, if at all. There are just too many companies out now. Back when KnC came out there was just Avalon, BFL, and a Russian Company called Metabank that was going to offer Bitfury units (Sounds real legit hah). KnC was an easy decision.
Now you have the following companies that all plan on selling some sort of ASIC. (In no specific order)
Avalon (Gen 2)
BFL
Bitfury
KnC
xCrowd
HashFast
VMC
Smart Machine
ASICMiner
Labcoin
BTCGarden
CoinTerra
let me know if I missed one. As you can see though that's A LOT of choices, just too many companies to choose from.
in my mind you can cross Avalon, BFL, and for sure BTCGarden off that after what happened today. the only one on that list that i think has a chance to challenge HF is Cointerra. but the fact is, they are 2 mo behind HF. that is an eternity in today's market.
clearly it's a leap of faith when dealing with any of these companies b/c we just don't know all the details. and even if we did, i'm sure there are only a few of us that would understand what the hell we were looking at. we're all dependent on the knowledge level and sophistication of the engineers involved as they're bumping up against the bleeding edge of new technology.
in these situations, i do what i did. get on a plane and go visit the ppl involved. you know as well as i these guys are not a scam. they're trying their best to produce a stellar product. Simon has been working on this baby for 2 yrs on and off and more on clearly since the beginning of the year. he's clearly a brilliant guy and quite frankly, he is the reason i've plunked my $ down on the table for my order. it's a leap of faith no question. but i truly believe they've created the best situation possible for themselves in creating a quality chip. his team of 4 engineers on the front end with Uniquify on the back should be enough to produce what they say. and you and i know that if they do it, it will make KNC's chip look like child's play and they will only be coming in one month later than them. and as i said before, i like the fact that HF has engineers on the front end which unfortunately results in some business mistakes, like the cart the other nite. i'm investing for the long run in the best technologists i can find. b/c out of the Golden Nonce 1 will come the Golden Nonce 2, etc, etc. Simon has the capability to make this all happen. and, imo, there is no better than the guys out of Silicon Valley/PARC. they have all the connections and resources nearby that can create synergies and afford a great advantage.
with time, clearly the cost is going to come down under $10/gh. this will be good for small miners. all these companies will have no choice but to compete for not only the whales but the minnows, its going to be that competitive. will the mines drive out the small miners? i don't know. i think there is hope though which is why i'm willing to extend my setup beyond just my avalons. and i don't want to be late. i only started gpu mining in mid 2011. i didn't think i'd ever pay them off but the coins generated from my setup have more than paid off my rig costs given the price increase. so i'm just trying to grab and accumulate as many coins as i can before the next price ramp which is coming. i'm also probably buying my setup with more of a philosophical mindset than most others. i want to help decentralize the network as a solo miner. that's just me and my dedication to Bitcoin.
the HR is going to level off though at some point. Jeffrey Paul, aka Sneak, made a great point on Lets Talk Bitcoin. it can't go up forever in this cycle of asic development. the constraint will be limited by the amount of USD that actors are going to be capable of or willing to throw at this space. it's not infinite and it will peak out for a while. the trick will be to buy enough equipment at a low enough price to make yourself a relevant actor. who knows what that level will be or how much it will cost but i don't want to miss out on the asic revolution.
