Topic: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands - page 12. (Read 2939 times)

It was when I started using the DCA method I started appreciating the significance of getting x2 or thereabout in my investment. Coming from the background of hoping for x100 amidst several pain of loses and falling victim of scam, I have come to realize that it is truly a matter of amplified risk to see x100 in ones investment. This much needed understanding was necessary for the calmness I'm enjoying, investing in Bitcoin with my expectations being reasonable and achievable.

Bitcoin may not give x100 now or in the near future but it still have a huge potential for growth. To me I have double advantage investing in Bitcoin which is the fact that Bitcoin is appreciating against the dollar while dollar is appreciating against my local currency as inflation is now at 29% in my country. So it is a rare privilege to be invested in Bitcoin and also building my wealth already.

I have done few calculations about accumulating Bitcoin in DCA manner and you can see on that post what result you get after a certain period of time. Bitcoin transaction fee is high these days (this high fee play a significant role in security of the bitcoin network by preventing network abuse) but it wasn't high previously and will come down soon. You will see benefits of DCA if you are planning to invest for next 4 to 5 years or for longer duration.
Following is great tool where you can see results of DCA by varying parameters. 
https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

That's why we are here trading bitcoin and not gold since we find it more bullish than gold in terms of profit gaining in some time span since gold takes a long time before we can feel that we are on profit. Compare to bitcoin that anything is possible especially if there's a huge news that can hype the market and help to build up the demand.

4 year cycle might really best especially that halving season will occur and that's good timeline for anyone to sell their bitcoins if they want to cashout their profits for deciding to hold on that timeline. Also whatever price they decide to buy I think its still fine as long as they can afford it and there's still huge potential for bitcoin to rise up especially if the demand still strong in future.

Fair enough.


Lump Sum has also given good results and one can check on dcacryptocalculator.com previous results of Lump Sum. Its best to see Lump Sum investment on different instances and that will give you fair idea about that. If you are brand new to Bitcoin then just wait and understand the market first. If you spend some time in the market and see historical data then you get a fair idea about when to go for Lump Sum.


This is what I was saying that we must see previous price charts of Bitcoin and see how price moved over last 13 years. In Dec 2017, 19k$ was ATH but today we have 67K$ as ATH. Year or two from today may be we have 100k$, 0.5M as ATH - Who knows?



It again comes down to understanding the market. Whether you are going for DCA or Lump Sum one need to understand that he is investing for long duration and it may take some time before his investment will be in profit. There is possibility that we start investing and price start going up but this may not be the case every time.

You have a point here, but you must consider those days about "easily rewarded about x10, x1000,x2000". Those days are high risk, no one knows what will be the future, so for me, it's high-risk high reward happened before and all who experienced, them deserve it.
For now, we must appreciate what we have now, especially in Bitcoin, x2,x3,x5 is enough already if you really looking for investment.

Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.

For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.

I don't disagree with your overall point about the higher levels of BTC price appreciation are likely going to be much more difficult to achieve, but they still are not impossible...especially since bitcoin is about 1/20th of the market cap of gold, but bitcoin is about 1,000x better than gold, so bitcoin does likely have another 20,000x of price appreciation before reaching all of its likely addressable market and it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin to reach its total addressable market.. and it is not even guaranteed to make gold parity, eve though many folks do recognize bitcoin being in the ballpark of 1,000x better than gold.

So whenever we invest into anything we can look at downside versus upside and also consider that even though bitcoin does not have as much upside potential, its investment thesis is likely stronger today than it has ever been, yet there are still a lot of folks who are barely even learning about bitcoin and barely even getting to the point of considering investing into it, whether it is through some kind of ETF or buying it directly.. and surely the ETF is the inferior product, yet many folks (besides already established bitcoiners) realize that direct ownership of bitcoin is the superior product.

This map is a great visual, its nice to be able to scroll all the way down to see the full history and prices of Bitcoin. Those DCA calculators are great as well, these can always be helpful with visualization of your BTC stacking goals. All of these great tools, I would like to add something kind of fun to this mix is this one: https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/

(Just copied from Clark Moody:

All-Time High Price
$69,010
Decline from ATH
-37.80%
ATH Date
November 10, 2021
Days Since ATH
815

Just seeing it there looking at you brings back memories of 3 years prior and I know that day is coming again! Indeed, we need to HODL and keep these hands strong  

Speaking of hodling, if I may emphasize, especially to those who are still thinking twice until now, time isn't on our side, folks. I may sound as if I'm inciting FOMO, but that's the reality. The train will leave at some point. To those who are putting off buying every time, you might indeed miss out the opportunity. Yeah, we can buy anytime. Yeah, we can buy small portions. But hodling is nothing else but about price appreciation.

Gone are the days when hodlers are easily rewarded x1000, x2000, x5000, and even higher growths. Gone are days when hodlers are rewarded with x100, x200 growths. Gone even are the days when x10, x20, x50 growths are within arm's reach to hodlers. Time will come even x3 and x5 will take many years.

Don't forget to also find ways to increase the bitcoin that you're currently hodling because you will never know how you'll fair if you just depend on the current amount until the ATH is reached, make sure that you're actively doing other things that can make you money like finding a steady job that will generate you a paycheck and if you got that already then a side hustle that will not be a problem for your main job or would take a lot of energy and time to do. Don't just hodl, be an active participant to the market movement, contribute by trading or just doing DCA to slowly accumulate what you're currently hodling and always remember that those with diamond hands are going to be the one that will enjoy the most profits.

DCA is the best option in bitcoin accumulation on weekly still stand out to be the best option in investing on bitcoin compeard to other form of investment. Expecially when it's don continuously for over a period of time.  I was afraid of accumulating bitcoin due to it high transaction fee but I was able to use my campaign bitcoin to use as my accumulated Bitcoin an now it serves as my DCA without stress now when people talk about DCA it sound like campaign to me. So now I am beginning to love this DCA at first it is always difficult but finally I have started accumulation. Because talking without investment is like a waste of time but decided to take it to another level this year and see what the result might be by the year ending.

Interesting historical comparative charts on that casebitcoin.com website.


I don't think about it like that, because I don't believe in any waiting around when it comes to trying to figure out when to get into bitcoin, so to me it does not matter what the price is, there is a need to get in and to get off zero as soon as possible.  There is no way to prepare for UP, unless you have some bitcoin.

So then the question merely becomes how to get started, and is there any desire (and/or ability to front load with a bit of a lump sum, and if so then perhaps some value should be thrown in as a lump sum right away).. then the other part would be figuring out what to do after making the initial investment, but if you have at least made an initial investment then you have some level of preparedness for UP, and so then you would therefore be in a better position to wait for down if you had already bought some.. and waiting for down can be buying on dips and/or DCA.   

So then at that point, it might matter what is your budget and what are your goals and if you lump sum with total your goal, then you still might need to consider buying on dips and DCA just to buttress your investment in case price goes down rather than up, but if you have invested less than your goal then maybe you already built in the ability to DCA and buy on dips. so of course DCA is a kind of time-released way of investing and buying on dips is price based.


It would have had been stupid to invest $20k at $67k if that was all the money that you had for the next 6 months, but it would not be stupid to invest $20k at $67k if you had some DCA amount of maybe $1k or $2k per month that you could buy or some other funds that you could buy on dips... I am not going to proclaim the whole ratio, but anyone could have looked at the charts and saw that $67k was on an upward trajectory, even if many folks were expecting higher prices such as supra $100k or even higher, and I even had my own charts that had supra $1.5 million within them (yeah only less than a 0.5% chance, but it was still listed as a possibility) (see this post of mine from December 2021).. but still I don't have a lot of sympathy when folks play only one direction, and especially if they were to invest $20k at $67k and then sit on their investment for the next 2 years without investing more.. since surely anyone could have continued to invest and maybe over 2 years, they could have had invested another $20k

So let's do the math.

Initial purchase of $20k at $66,667 = 0.3 BTC.   and then to DCA $200 per week from December 1, 2021 until now would have resulted in $22.8k invested and 0.9374 BTC.  So that would mean a total of 1.2374 BTC (currently valued at $53,208) and $42,800 invested.  So that would not be a bad place to be, and part of my point is that if someone is wiling to put $20k at the then top of the BTC price, they better also be prepared to continue to invest, otherwise they were gambling and not investing and I have little sympathy for folks with that level of lack of preparedness and/or overinvesting in those kinds of ways.

So even if a person took a strong front loading stance, even at the top of the market, they likely are still able to figure out a way to have some kind of follow through rather than merely whining that their initial investment was still not in profits.

My own way to frame this kind of investment would be to divide the 6 month budget into 3 parts and then to  invest 1/3 into each of the three parts (which is lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), so if the total budget was $20k then that would be $6,667 into each of the three parts.  But if the person had $20k in pocket and then an income of that might allow for $300 per week for the next 6 months, so then maybe the whole budget for 6 months might be considered to be considered as $27,800 (which would be 26 x $300).. so then if that is divided into 3 then each of the three parts would be $9,2667, and so after the end of the 6 months there might be a reassessment regarding what to do in regards to continuing with DCA and/or if there might be any more buying on dips and/or lump sums.   

I am not suggesting that I know the answer, but those should be the kinds of consideration for anyone who is investing into something like bitcoin and coming into the investment when the price is seeming to be in an upward direction, and so part of my point is that there is no need to wait, but still at the same time there are needs to have abilities to follow through and to commit especially if anyone is thinking that he has $20k that he can lump sum invest into BTC when the prices were at $67k. 

If you know anyone who did that and has been sitting on their hands for the last 2-ish years, I would say that they surely were lacking in their abilities and their foresight and their making a reasonable investment plan that would have likely ended up being way more profitable than the way that they came at the situation.


I have nothing wrong with lump sum, and I think it is a very good plan; however, if the price moves against you, you are going to be fucked if you don't have conviction to keep investing, and if you come to an investment such as bitcoin without any more conviction than to throw $20k at it at $67k , then you deserve what you got.


I would not really say that we do DCA because there is less risk, even though there is some truth that it likely takes more capital to justify anyone who might do a lump sum should be ready, willing and able to justify why he is doing it that way, and I am just not sure why such a person would not be ready, willing and able to follow up if he invested $20k at $67k.. and sure maybe your example is not that great, but people use these kinds of examples all the time, to describe the poor schmuck who lump sum invested at the top, and again, I have no sympathy for such smucks or for such whining stories... especially since we can look at BTC charts and see that it has been the best investment for 13 years, so why would not anyone coming into bitcoin at least do a wee bit of looking at price history in order to temper his "investment" approach?


Sure if the DCA person does not have any lump sum that is available, then he is looking at his discretionary/disposable income and deciding how much he is able to invest based on those kinds of limitations, so he can be as aggressive as he is able to be, but yes, he is limited by his discretionary/disposable income.. which is the difference between his income and his expenses.... but within that he could choose to invest 100% of his disposable/discretionary income, and that might be aggressive.. .. and surely if anyone is investing 100% of his discretionary/disposable income, he is going to need to have some variations of emergency fund, float and/or reserves in place.. even if non of that is authorized to be allocated (or invested) into bitcoin.

If you are going to invest in Lump Sum manner then price is very important at which you are investing your whole money. Like as I already said, investing 20k$ when price of Bitcoin is 67k$ will lock your investment for indefinite period of time while investing same amount when price of Bitcoin is 20k$ is better option. You are right in saying that we don't know exactly when its bottom or just the start of dip. So one has to do that risk analysis if he is trying to invest in Lump sum manner.
While in case of DCA there is less risk involved compared to Lump sum. In DCA, all you need is to accumulate Bitcoin slowly and based on historic data DCA for 4 to 5 years has been a profitable strategy.

Volatility is only a big concern if you plan to hold bitcoin in short term. If you hold it long term, like about 5 years, volatility is not your concern because price is strongly upward.

ROI chart shows this fact https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart
Choose different time frame like 1 year, Year to date, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years and see different ROIs. With 5-year ROI chart, I am sure you will see no concern with Bitcoin volatility in short term.

When we hold Bitcoin in real life, we see that it has both advantages and disadvantages. If we look closely, owning Bitcoin for a long time can provide possible rewards.

One of these advantages is that it provides high profits and inflation protection, but it also involves large risks due to volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and security issues. Before making any investing decisions, think about your risk tolerance, financial objectives, and understanding of the bitcoin market.



Referrence:

https://www.creditkarma.com/investments/i/pros-and-cons-of-bitcoin
https://www.cointree.com/learn/pros-and-cons-of-bitcoin/

Don't get me wrong.  I am surely for the idea of ongoing investing into bitcoin and long term holding, yet you are not going to get me to agree that there is any guarantee that your BTC will be profitable, even though historically all coins held at least 5 years have ended up being profitable.

I also recognize and appreciate the asymmetric nature of bitcoin, in that there are a lot of folks who have accumulated bitcoin for years, and of course there are a lot of folks who have been holding bitcoin for many years and have gone through many doublings of their coin value which has a certain kind of compounding and/or exponential effect on those kinds of BTC holders, so many times we are thinking small potatoes if we  are merely considering whether some day coins might be profitable in stead of the longer that people have been holding their coins the more likely that they are going experience many doublings and ongoing compounding effects..  while at the same time there are no guarantees.

I personally started out in bitcoin when prices were around $1,100 to $1,200 in late 2013, so I frequently considered my BTC holdings in terms of the average cost per BTC, and I likely brought my average cost per BTC down to quite a bit below $500 per BTC by the time late 2016 had come, but at the same time I made some mistakes along the way including having some sim-swap problem, so I frequently like to just proclaim that my coins have around a $1k per coin average cost, even though there coudl be other ways that I could frame the matter or even taking some coins and grouping them with other coins that were bought around the same time and various kinds of subdividing of my BTC stash; however, I am not even sure how useful that is, even if the the tax man frequently forces us to jump through those kinds of accounting hoops.

In any event, many of us who have been a long time in bitcoin have also experienced upside and compoundings (and exponential growth) of the value of our BTC holdings, but you are still not going to get me to suggest that any particular coin that is bought now, in the future or even past coins are guaranteed to be in profits in the future or even including that past coins that are currently in profits are going to continue to be in profits, even if there is a whole hell of a lot of cushion between current price and the cost basis. 

On the other hand, I do have a lot of reliance in the 200-week moving average, even with my own calculation of personal strategies and even attempt to provide frameworks for how to think about the value or our BTC stashes (looking at my ideas behind sustainable withdrawal).. and so in that regard, the 200-week moving average has always gone up, and its worst performance period was between about June 2022 and November 2023, even though it still went up 20% on an annualized basis during that time (as you can see from my entry-level fuck you status chart).  Another thing is that the 200-week moving average is not guaranteed to continue to go up even though right now it is going up around $25 per day and likely to on track to having at least a 30% annualized performance for our current six month period between December and May.. 

So even though I consider BTC going up as not guaranteed, I still consider that any of who have stacked enough BTC could likely employ BTC stack management practices that allow us to have good chances of being able to withdraw BTC at higher rates than we would be able to sustainably withdraw in traditional investments, so I largely use 6-10% as sustainable withdrawal, even though I throttle those values if the BTC spot price start to get to become less than 25% higher than the 200-week moving average... so surely I consider there to be a lot of power and value in terms of building a BTC stack, but you are still not going to get me to claim that there are guarantees of UPpity BTC price moves, even if the 200-week moving average (which is a lagging indicator) has never (so far in BTC's price history) gone lower than 20% annualized.

Definitely no guarantee of profit especially if you didn't hodl or buy any bitcoin before the price of bitcoin reached an all time high besides not investing though I don't see how it doesn't guarantee a bitcoin hodler any profit when the chart is consistent that at this X period is the time where the price likely to hit it's all time high or something.

If you don't include buying back after cashing out then hodling until the desired price shows is going to be the most sufficient of them all and if you don't sell at an increment then wouldn't it mean that you're getting more profit compared to someone that's profiting albeit in small amounts because they sell a small part?

I don't have any problems comparing them, but yeah, they are different categories of things and each of them can work well under certain kinds of circumstances, and surely a person who has a lump sum available has options regarding how to consider investing, whether that is lump sum all of it or to perhaps lump sum part and maybe even DCA other parts and buy on dips with other parts.

A person who does not have a lump sum available has to just deal with cash as it comes in, and in some cases, there are folks who do not have good habits of saving and/or investing and maybe they don't even really know how to do it, so DCA would likely be better for them because they can just choose an amount to invest over whatever period of time that is based on how much disposable income that they have, and if they were to save it in cash and then invest it later, then that may or may not be practical, but it could end up being a form of lump sum that is buying on dip if they really think that there might be utility in terms of waiting when they get into BTC.. which it is never really clear when those periods of long and deep correction are going to happen and at the same time, even if they happened in a certain pattern in the past, it is not even close to assured that such long and deep corrections are going to happen in similar ways in the future... even though bitcoin's ongoing volatility is likely inevitable, we just can never really be sure of the direction (especially in the short-to-medium term, even if even if we can develop theories and even probabilities). 

I just revisited my calculations and went through your post and concluded you are right about Lump Sum.

• If somebody had Lump Sum invested 20k$ on Nov 8, 2021 when price of Bitcoin was ATH of 67k$ then he defiantly will be in loss at the moment. Even after 2 years of that Lump Sum investment.
• Even if you back to Dec 2019 when price of Bitcoin went high to 19k$ then investing 20k$ at that time would be hard to recover.

Case of DCA will be different and will produce positive results if calculated over a period of longer duration.
Just like we can't compare Apple with Oranges, so better not compare DCA with Lump Sum.

Personally, I do not get very excited about any kinds of demo or practice accounts, except maybe if somehow you are prohibited from using real money.. but then you better figure out some way to use real money in order to make any kind of experience more real..

So personally I believe that it is better to practice with real money, and sure maybe you have some trouble getting to the minimum order size and sometimes if you are real poor then the fees might end up being higher because there might be various fees such as flat fees and percentages that end up causing the transaction to cost higher, so there frequently will be desires, especially for more financially challenged folks to find ways to save on fees and other transaction costs.


Over the past year, and maybe even the last 3 months we have seen that there might be practicality to accumulate BTC on an exchange prior to creating a UTXO, especially for poor people.

I also do believe it is best to try to minimize your exchange exposure, but you also need to look out for your own best interest in terms of balancing how much to leave on exchanges versus various current or future potential transaction costs that might come through creating a bunch of small UTXOs.

Theymos may well be a bit off in his recommendation, especially when applied to some smaller accounts.


There is no guarantee to get a profit, even if the chart shows historically what the profit levels have been.


Actually that is what I specifically like about the chart.  It does not really tell us about our own holdings, especially if we have a whole hell of a lot of transactions, but it tells us about the level of profits of any transactions on any particular day, to the extent that we are able to narrow in on a particular day.

If we have a bunch of transactions and various dates and various transaction amounts, we may well need to use a different tool to figure out our average portfolio costs.

Even though I really like the tool, there is some aspect of non-reality (or maybe bad recommendation) in terms some folks who might buy BTC and then just sit on their investment or if they fantasize about buying on one day or another and then what would have had happened.  That is kind of a trader and gambling mindset, and one of the smartest things is to actively manage your holdings by continuing to buy, whether that is lump summing, buying on dips and/or DCAing... and for sure if you lump sum at a certain point and then the BTC price goes down rather than up, it may well be a good idea to have some money left over to either be able to buy on the dip or to DCA.

On the other hand, if you buy and the BTC price mostly just goes up from the point of your purchase, then maybe you just sit on your investment for as long as you believe is necessary until you cash out.. in the event that you don't create some longer term BTC portfolio plans that might involve cashing out incrementally rather than concluding that you are justified to cash out a bunch at one time, even if you conclude it to be sufficiently profitable for your own likings.


For sure there is compounding effect that comes from holding over more than one cycle, and sure it is possible that a person gets so much compounding effect merely in one cycle that he cannot resist except to sell, so that is understandable, yet in bitcoin there has been greater and greater compounding effects to hold longer and longer, rather than cashing out, yet of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, even if we should not conclude that bitcoin's investment thesis has gotten weaker (rather than stronger) over the past cycle or two... Bitcoin surely does seem to possess some Lindy effect qualities in which the longer it is in existence the stronger it seems to get.. or at least the more we might be able to conclude that it is is going to continue to exist, even if the returns might not be as great (in terms of percentages) as they were in the past, but part of any investment is not ONLY considering upside potential but also getting some value in the solidification that lesses downside potential... while still not guaranteeing any of these price performance matters in either direction.


You have to also presume some abilities to lump sum, which may well not be options, and I already largely responded to those ideas in this post.