Topic: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands - page 9. (Read 2963 times)

You seem to be comparing bitcoin to shitcoins, and surely in my earlier comments, I was not considering shitcoins - and if anything, I was comparing bitcoin to any investment category of asset and/or currency, so the other traditional asset classes that any of us might consider to include in our investment portfolio would be equities (such as stocks), property, commodities, bonds and/or cash or cash equivalents. .not referring to shitcoins.

Your decision about whether to invest into bitcoin or to continue to invest into bitcoin might partly relate to whether you already have any, and if you don't have any, then surely it seems that everyone should be considering at least getting off zero and probably allocating 5% to 25% of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio into bitcoin. .. and surely each person has to choose for themselves in regards to both the questions of whether to invest into bitcoin and if so then, how much. 

There are surely a lot of people in the world that do not have any investments, and they also might be living in such a way that they might not have very much income that exceeds their expenses, and so surely, people who do not have much if any investments based on their relatively low level of discretionary/disposable income, they will need to make sure that the are taking from their discretionary/disposable income, and sometimes they might need to attempt to increase their income and to cut their expenses and if they are not used to investing into anything then they also may need to increase their emergency fund, cash reserves and/or cash float so that they will never have to sell any of their investment  (into bitcoin in this case) at a time that is anything other than completely their own choosing.


Fuck shitcoins.

We are talking about bitcoin in this thread, so who cares that there exists a bunch of shitcoins that you could choose from, unless you are inclined towards gambling.


Sure, there are a lot of people who are confused about bitcoin versus various shitcoins, but they probably don't really know what bitcoin is, and so then they get confused about what they should invest into.  Hopefully, if someone learns about bitcoin first and invests into bitcoin, then at least if s./he decides to venture into various shitcoins and to gamble, then at least he started with bitcoin first. 

Another thing is that if you are so damned tempted to gamble on various shitcoins, then if you at least limit your allocations into shitcoins to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment, then at least you will have placed some boundaries upon the level of your distractions and temptations... but yeah, there are a lot of folks who cannot limit their temptations to gamble to something like less than 10%, so they will likely have to learn by getting burnt, even if their goals might have been to invest, they might not have either learned the difference between investing and gambling, and they are exercising practices to reinforce their continued failure/refusal to learn how to invest rather than to gamble.. and that there is actually a meaningful difference.

This is something badly required. All your previous posts must be gathered at one central place for quick reference. i have to spend time finding that 6 Hypo's post and that can be avoided if there is a central place where all posts are residing.


This is an excellent chart for anyone who want to see how your Bitcoin value increases with time or see the Bitcoin compounding effect over a period of 10 years. We don't know what's coming ahead but this price chart is clear indication that something big will be coming in next few years. I will also bookmark this post like the 6 Hypo's post for ready reference.
With such data in hand, one must not worried about future price of Bitcoin. You just need to invest in Bitcoin (lump sum, dca or buying on dips) then all you need is patience to HODL that for at least 5 years. It's not that complicated.

My view may be wrong but I think it is a use case for bitcoin. Bitcoin gives people freedom with their decisions and actions. You're probably referring to the early stages of bitcoin's popularity. Yes, I think the bitcoin story has really changed the world, currently the assets are 1000 billion and with the current position and development, no one wants to sell their bitcoins quickly. Whether they expect much or not, that is also the result they want. From bitcoin make money the way they want. Surely that is the mindset that each person must be aware of when buying bitcoin to use, invest, pay, keep assets...

What OP said is okay; as long as you want to hold on long-term, follow what you want to do. But of course, you should first know what you are trying to invest in in the crypto space. We have a lot to choose from besides Bitcoin because there are other top altcoins on the market.

Holding long-term is also important because if we don't have enough knowledge, this is the safest thing to do so that we can make a profit while we know or study whether it is Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is the king coin of cryptocurrencies and is considered by some to be a great investment vehicle.
 Like you said @JayJuanGee, there are no guarantees or guarantees on Bitcoin.  Its price depends on market changes and has high volatility, which means you are at risk of losing your money.  Is it an good decision to invest in Bitcoin again?

Your right that mate everyone of us know that holding is not for our whole life which is we need to matter the situation like the market we need to study first before we are going to hold a coins cause if we hold a bad coins then we will loss our money,. Unlike we hold a good and trusted coins even though the price will go up and down then for sure in the future we will have a good profit.  Also we need self discipline and self control in holding cause the price is volatile which is it will change every now and then. So we need to do some research if we are going to sell our coins or still we will hold it.

These are some of the pivotal aspects of Bitcoin that I want a lot of people to understand. The kind of perception we had about Bitcoin earlier was that it was a get-rich-quick money platform where you just put in some funds and tomorrow you expect it to grow bigger than normal. But that was not the case.

The truth is that Bitcoin is just like any other asset out there. It grows over time as the market is being patronized. The only difference that Bitcoin has over centralized currencies online is that it is a decentralized platform or asset where people jointly contribute to the growth and development of each, and also to the uptrend of the market, rather than just a government or a few sort of people deciding the fate of the currency.

This is, in fact, the reason why Bitcoin would continue to be an outstanding advancement in the financial technologies sector. Because the world is moving towards a world of freedom where individuals can have financial freedom and breakthrough through their own means, not influenced by a few people in the government or so. But many of us, like myself, thought Bitcoin was a get-rich-quick money platform where you just sink in some funds and expect magic to happen tomorrow.

 And as we were studying the processes over time, we came to realize that that was not the case. Because this kind of situation creates fear in your mind and there are just misconceptions that were probably propaganda flagged by the government so that people would be discouraged from the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

But because of the consistency of Bitcoin and how it has grown over time, which the decentralization has really helped in the longevity of the currency and how it has been able to stand the test of time, now the government cannot fully lay out campaigns that would negate the use of Bitcoin because people have become more knowledgeable and gaining more understanding of what Bitcoin stands for. And it has grown over time. For those that have believed in the process, at those very critical moments that Bitcoin needed people to believe in it, they are the users that have benefited immensely today. Indeed, everything in life needs consistency.

It is hard to rest on my laurels, and yeah sometimes I feel that I should put some of the ideas or structure of my prior posts into my investment ideas thread, so that I don't need to repeat work that I had already done.

For example, I am kind of proud of a post that I just did in regards to the compounding effects of bitcoin over the past 8-9 years.  Here's the relevant part.



So far in bitcoin's history it has been a good practice for BTC accumulators to just continue to buy and to reassess from time to time in terms of how aggressive that they are able to continue to buy, and maybe after 4 years or so (a full cycle) of buying, you might start to get some ideas about whether (and if so how) to adjust the previously employed BTC accumulation strategies.  Of course, there are no guarantees, so it is probably best to figure out some kind of a buying pattern that is comfortable, and even though history does not guarantee future results, there are not real and/or meaningful signs that bitcoin's investment thesis if getting any weaker (rather than stronger) over the coming years.


Yeah.. fuck shitcoins.. stick with bitcoin... don't be fucking around with imitations or diversification or some other bullshit distracting and lame investing/gambling/trading ideas that lure you into failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately stack bitcoins in as aggressive as a way that you can without over doing it.


If you don't know about whether to be a short term or a long term holder of bitcoin, then you likely need to learn about bitcoin, but if you don't know very much about bitcoin and you are concerned about your bitcoin investment, then probably you should tamper down your investment in order that you don't panic... and so it is better to buy and hold a long time rather than overdoing it and then having to sell your BTC at a time that is anything other than your own choosing.


When we are looking at past performance of various portfolios it is not hypothetical to compare them, even though we could take hypothetical examples, or we could even compare our own performance to a hypothetical example, such as someone who might have DCA'd into BTC versus if he had invested in some other various kinds of investment opportunities that he might have had at various points in time.

Surely, we cannot go back in time and change what we did, but we can choose the extent to which we might want to be aggressive in our bitcoin investment now or the extent to which we might want to employ a more aggressive bitcoin investment strategy - and we still might end up making mistakes because we cannot necessarily know the extent to which any strategy that we start to employ now might pay off - yet if we are ongoingly assessing our own situation and we are attempting to employ good practices, we likely would end up improving the chances that our investments would pay off over the passage of time, especially if we make sure to include (and maybe even prioritize) bitcoin accumulation into what we are doing...and maybe even more important for those who either don't have any bitcoin or do not have very many bitcoin. 


When it comes to history, if you know their budget then you can plot out what would have happened in terms of if you are describing some kind of a buying strategy, but if you are going from right now, you don't necessarily know what is going to happen, but you can still create a buying approach that increases your likelihood for success, especially if you are able to establish some kind of an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer. 

If you investment timeline is shorter than 4 years, then maybe you should not be investing in bitcoin, but hey people can do what they like.


Sure, something like that.  When I look at my own investment portfolio prior to bitcoin and see my bitcoin performance in the past 10 years, my traditional portfolio came close to doubling, and my bitcoin holdings had gone up around 52x, and yeah there is going to be variation in terms of how much anyone might be able to put into any asset, and I did a bit of a run down of my own allocations between late 2013 and mid-2022.. I have not updated it in the last 18 months... but maybe I will in the future... and the bitcoin portion smoked everything else.


Bitcoin likely remains amongst the best, if not the best current investment, and guys can choose their own path, including their own allocation choices.  And, yeah, it is not guaranteed, but it remains very sound money, if any of us might not have had noticed.


Yep.. compounding is very powerful especially if we might well be considering doublings in value, as I posted on it earlier today.. and referred to it above in my response to MusaPk.

Those that purchased Bitcoin at the beginning did, in fact, receive a very disproportionate return on their investment. Regarding opportunity cost, I totally agree. Even if someone bought Bitcoin with money that they could have invested in something else, the return on their Bitcoin investment would likely be much higher than the return they would have gotten on that other investment. Of course, all of this is hypothetical.

It is impossible to predict with certainty what would have happened if someone had chosen to invest in something other than Bitcoin. However, considering Bitcoin's potential return on investment in contrast to other viable options, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or other assets, is still an intriguing thought. It's possible that Bitcoin has occasionally performed significantly better than those other investments. For instance, during the last ten years, the S&P 500 has returned roughly 7% annually on average, but during the same period, Bitcoin has gained over 200% annually on average.

Naturally, past performance does not guarantee future success, and as Bitcoin is far more erratic than the stock market, its returns can vary greatly from year to year. But there is certainly a chance for an enormous return on investment.

The power of compounding rewards is another intriguing point to consider. Compounding allows the return on your investment to gradually increase over time. For example, if you invest $1,000 and get a 10% return, you'll have $1,100 at the end of the year. But if you reinvest that $1,100 and get another 10% return, you'll have $1,210 at the end of the second year. And so it goes on and on. Therefore, the compounding effects of Bitcoin's returns may have led to a significantly higher gain over time than someone might have predicted, even if they had only invested a little amount of money. For instance, if a person had invested just $100 in 2010 and HODLED their BITCOIN, they would have accumulated over $300,000 by the end of 2021. Even if that's a very specific and uncommon situation, it's still intriguing to think about how Bitcoin investors' performance might have been influenced by compounding gains.


Rightly said, every investor (Both Bitcoin as well as other assets) needs both knowledge and patience. It's not enough to just buy Bitcoin and hope for the best, you need to understand the market and the technology behind it because if you're not fully equipped with the knowledge you need to make certain decisions, you'll be exposed to lots of dangers that is capable of negatively impacting your investment and you might end up making wrong decisions and putting your investment in jeopardy.

 And you're also right that the key to success is often HODLing for the long term, rather than trying to time the market or make quick profits and it takes a great deal of patience to HODL. This is a lesson that many new Bitcoin investors learn the hard way.

Investors that have the experience and that had been holding for a long time could attest that it pays to hold but that might not be easy for everyone that is a Bitcoin investor. It takes courage for us to keep seeing our holding losing value continuously without knowing whether to sell to keep the remaining lost or to keep holding.

Although not all holdings are profitable so we need to know what we are doing so that we don't invest our funds in a bad project that will not make us to finally lose our funds. This is why Bitcoin is the only project in the crypto market that can give us what will want although the risk is also there for us to choose whether to be a long term holders or short term holders.

Bitcoin investment is combination of knowledge and patience. You need to have knowledge about how to invest in Bitcoin to get good return. We have discussed many investment strategies here i.e. DCA, LUMP SUM and buying on dips. Which every strategy you adopt (or you go with all three) the key to success is patience or HODL for long term without it you wont see good results.


You already have a post where 6 different Hypo's are discussed that gives good idea of where you are if you are accumulating bitcoin for last 10 or 5 years.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63394117

People have different reasons and target while investing in Bitcoin with this target determining, to a large extent, how they will going about selling and managing their portfolio. While majority of Bitcoin holders are looking at the profits they can possibly make from Bitcoin, a good number of Bitcoin investors including myself, already made up our mind to HODL Bitcoin as long as we live and even pass same to the next generation. Under this premise, selling during bull run is already out of the picture even though some could consider liquidating a portion of their Bitcoin stash with the aim of reinvesting same during bear season (this being just an option some people might consider while some will sell only when they want to pull out funds for other tangible projects that their emergency funds cannot cover).

So the pattern of selling off one's Bitcoin portfolio during bull market with the hope of buying them back during bear season may be good but not for everyone. In the end, it boil down to individual preference just like I explained before.

I would describe asymmetric bet a bit differently.

My understanding of asymmetric bet is that if you do not use leverage, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you have invested; however, if various bullish cases for bitcoin play out, then you have chances to double, triple, 10x, 100x, 1,000x your investment, depending on your timeline and depending on how bullish bitcoin ends up playing out - in the event it does end up playing out bullishly rather than flat or bearishly.. but even if it ends up playing out flat or bearishly, you are not going to lose any more than 100% of what you had invested (so long as you do not use leverage).

So you seem to be sort of correct that when you are assessing possible outcomes for bitcoin and your investment into it, you are weighing one price direction versus the other side (down versus up), but also you should be factoring the magnitude of upside that is possible, including that you do not necessarily need to invest large portions of your wealth and still end up having potentials for benefiting greatly...

Consider some of the guys who might have invested $10k or less into bitcoin 8-12 years ago, and yeah of course, the earlier they invested the better, yet $10k for some folks might have had been a whimpy investment.. and even a $1k investment in 2012 might have gotten you close to 200 bitcoin, and surely some folks might consider that amount to have had been pretty whimpy, and so the return ended up being way more disproportionate to the upside as compared to the amount invested or the amount put at risk, even if you consider opportunity costs of the invested money and even if you consider that the money devalued over the next 8-12-ish years, depending on when the guy got into bitcoin.

So even today, the upside potential of bitcoin might well not be as great in terms of multiples and or magnitude in which BTC could appreciate - even given a potential $50k investment price, yet bitcoin's investment thesis is not weaker today, and there are some BIG institutions that are just coming into bitcoin, and they would have had never invested into bitcoin when it was lower prices because its marketcap was not enough and there were not enough other BIG players investing into bitcoin, and so these days some of the upside potential and strength of bitcoin's investment thesis is ONLY beginning to be known, which likely reinforces the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis,

even for some of the folks who might be investing into bitcoin but hardly having any clues in regards to what it is and they also may ONLY be investing into bitcoin through some kind of an investment vehicle (such as through spot BTC ETFs), merely based on the idea (someone may have told him or maybe he comes up to that idea himself) that number might go up..   I am not even suggesting that superficial ideas about bitcoin or even market sentiment would be good reasons to invest into bitcoin, even though those reasons do end up exacerbating bitcoin's likelihood to go up and even end up disproportionately putting a lot of extra upwards price pressures on bitcoin, since by law the spot BTC ETF managers have to maintain BTC holdings that match the BTC exposure that their clients have elected through the purchase of the spot BTC ETF shares that are purchased (or sold) by the client.


It is funny (and/or strange) that frequently many normal people end up devolving into gambling practices when they invest because they do not adequately understand their own finances and psychology.. and sure, maybe they don't even need to have any kind of strong psychology as long as they set up their finances in such a way that is not devolving into gambling practices..

And, so I frequently claim that an overwhelming majority of people have abilities to manage their own finances, count how much income they have versus their expenses and to ONLY invest with their extra money (disposable/discretionary income that is the difference between their income and their expenses), yet part of the problem that they run into is that they do not employ enough discipline to both 1) think through their own finances for 3-6 months into the future (and continue to project into the future) and 2) to employ practices that make sure that they maintain enough of a cash cushion so that they will never have to dip into their investment (BTC in this case), so they frequently will end up using bitcoin (or anything else that they invest into) as part of their emergency fund, which remains a form of gambling that is likely to catch up with them the longer that they try to dance such sloppiness in their own practices..and it would be within their abilities to actually fix their errors if they were to spend some time thinking through the basic kinds of money management practices and employing those kinds of basics that would be to prepare themselves to never get into trouble and be forced to have to sell some or all of their investment (bitcoin in this case) at a time that is not 100% of their own preplanning and choosing.    


Sure leverage tends to be dangerous, and it is a more advanced technique.  I am not opposed to leverage and/or taking out loans, but you have to have way to pay and service the loan that are other than being based on the anticipated price appreciation of the asset (bitcoin in this case).


So yeah.. 4-10 years or longer would be a good way to think about any bitcoin that you buy to have at least that kind of timeline, so if you are DCAing into bitcoin for 6 years straight, then your earliest BTC buys would have had reached investment timelines of 4-10 years or longer, but your latest purchases would not have had very much time to appreciate in value, so if you keep investing into BTC, then any new purchases, would also have 4-10 years or more for those later investments so you would likely see ways to measure the price appreciation of your various coins and the various purchase times, which seems to be partly what the tool of this thread would be helping longer term HODLers to be able to measure.. even though you may also have your own records and/or your own spreadsheet that might give you various numbers, but also you might be tracking your average cost per BTC which surely is different from the cost of your various BTC purchases that might end up being spread out over a decade or more.. once you are in bitcoin for a long enough time, you would likely have coins fitting in the various timeline categories - especially if you mostly held the coins rather than trading them and confusing your records.. and surely guys may end up doing a lot of things, besides merely holding their coins that may or may not end up working to their advantage if their goals might be to accumulate more BTC with the passage of time.. .


How will you know that it is time to sell?  

And what if you don't have enough bitcoin, then how is selling going to help to keep you in the right mindset for accumulation and ongoingly building of your BTC stash rather than fucking around with attempts at getting in and out that either might not pay off, or might even cause you to spend way too much waiting when you should just be accumulating BTC..

ON the other hand if you have accumulated a lot of BTC, and if they are mostly in profits, then why would anyone be trying to fuck around with selling them and trying to get back in, unless maybe they are just selling a small portion of their stash at various price points.

If you have been in BTC since around the time of your forum registration date in February 2016, then has your tactic outperformed a relatively strict DCA practice?  Do you know how to measure such a thing?

And wow.. look at your forum registration date?  In 2 days, you are coming upon 8 years registered on the forum.. and so if you had invested $100 per week over the last 8 years, you would have had invested right around $42k into BTC, and you would have had accumulated right around 13.6 BTC (worth right around $673.2k - so clearly right around 16x price appreciation.   Even if your amounts were not the same, is your current BTC holdings valued around 16x price appreciation based on whatever you had been doing over the last 8 years?


I agree with everything you said romero121 - except we are talking about bitcoin in this thread.. so I don't know why you chose to use such a dumbass vague term, because DCA does not apply to shitcoins.. so it is difficult to know what you meant if you chose not to use the word bitcoin.  Are you talking about bitcoin or something else, and if you are talking about bitcoin, then why the fuck did you not use the word bitcoin?  fuck shitcoins.. and dumbass vague, amorphous and misleading language that does not even really communicate anything except maybe that the person that is using that dumbass word does not know what is bitcoin or they are trying to act like they are smarter, when the use of the word makes them look dumb, since DCA does not apply to shitcoins...especially not in any kind of general way.. .. and even if you try to point out any specific shitcoin, it probably would not apply to that particular shitcoin either. but you did not point out any particular shitcoin that you might have had been thinking about when you used that word perhaps to try to appear smart, when you accomplished the opposite and may have mislead some of us at the same time regarding what the fuck you are talking about.^**


Edit:  ** by the way, I just looked at your profile and your forum registration date romero121.. You have been registered here right around 9 months longer than me (long enough for a baby), and so you should know better than using dumbass, vague and misleading language.

Here, what we're talking about is the retirement life, particularly a successful early retirement. Life will be enjoyable when we are able to make the future comfortable. Throughout his life, he isn't sacrificing anything or holding, he's just investing €500 every month without thinking about the market situation. This has now turned into a lot of money in terms of USD. As suggested, selling at the peak and buying back is a good choice, but for people who don't want to take risks, this is also a wise choice to make a better portfolio in cryptocurrency.

Holding really matters in investing in Bitcoin but it doesn't mean we have to do this our whole life. If we take a look at the price chart, prices are growing but can we think this will be the same trend in the next few years? Not for sure and it was uncertain. So I could say that holding will not be forever as it also depends on the market situation. Selling our Bitcoin during the bull season is a perfect option IMHO and get on the train back again once the market correction starts. But yes, this needs strong hands because waiting for 4 years is not as easy as people think as we need to deal our emotions as well.

Due to its uniqueness, Bitcoin has the potential for a significant asymmetric reward, which implies that the upside is far greater than the downside. Because of the enormous potential payoff, it is often profitable to take a chance on Bitcoin, despite the inherent risk. It's similar to playing the lottery; but with far better odds. And I couldn't agree more with you on how you pointed out that it's not just about investing in Bitcoin, it's also about having your financial life in order and making sure you're not over-extending yourself.

In my opinion Finding a way to keep up with their other financial obligations is one of the biggest challenges for anyone looking to invest in Bitcoin. It's easy to get caught up in the hype and excitement of Bitcoin and lose sight of the fact that you still need to pay your bills and have money for emergencies. To invest in Bitcoin, some people might even be tempted to take out loans or incur debt, which is not a wise move. It is crucial to keep in mind that you should never invest more money than you are willing to lose.


You've hit the nail on the head when you say that one of the most crucial elements in investing in Bitcoin is time. Your chances of getting a good return on your investment increase with the length of time you can hang onto your Bitcoin. Similar to a snowball effect, your investment will increase over time. Additionally, as you mentioned, you'll gain more knowledge on how to maximize your investment over time. The misconception that most people have when investing in Bitcoin is that it's a get-rich-quick scheme, but that's clearly not the case and that if they just start investing in Bitcoin, they'd be rich in a month or two, and this infact is the actual reason why most Bitcoin investors go into the short-term trade and they end up loosing money and giving Bitcoin a bad name, they go all in without really having the knowledge of what they are doing and then at the end incur losses for themselves. Bitcoin is more of a long-term game, and if you really wanna rip the true benefit of Bitcoin, then going long-term will definitely help you achieve that.

Of course, we can invest into bitcoin in a way in which we are not putting all of our eggs in the one basket, but still come out of the situation very much better than we would have had been if we had not invested, and I am not even suggesting to invest into anything other than bitcoin and having your shit together in regards to your cashflows, expenses, emergency fund, reserves and float, and since bitcoin is such an asymmetric bet, many of us should be able to prosper quite well by just attempting to invest as aggressively as we can without recking ourselves.

Surely a problem with poor people is that they do not have very much discretionary income, and maybe they have troubles to be able to increase their discretionary income, and even though they still will benefit from a bitcoin system, they will benefit even more personally if they can figure out ways to increase their discretionary income so that they can invest into bitcoin without recking themselves..... so the balance is not easy for some one who is poor and just getting into bitcoin with $10 per week or something like that because it can take a decently long time to build up a BTC stash when the investment amount is so low.. even though surely we can see those who invested $10 per week over the past 10 years did end up doing quite well with maybe more than $5k invested and maybe more than 4.5 BTC currently.., even if it might not have had been very clear whether an ongoing $10 per week investment would end up paying off.. and surely the earlier years of investing had more compounding effects in terms of the value appreciation of the BTC purchases.

I feel comfortable with long term strategy and since I don't have huge capital I accumulate in DCA manner. What I have learn so far is that time matter a lot if you are in bitcoin. The longer you have ability to hold more is your chances of great ROI. If you don't believe that then go check yourself from previous data. There will be more risk if you are investing for short duration. With time as we invest, the more we come to know about how to accumulate bitcoin for the long term.

Agreeably, In a way, no matter how much information we gather, the future is never really definite. However, as you said, we may utilize that information to assign probabilities and arrive at well-informed conclusions. Furthermore, it appears that Bitcoin has some special characteristics that make it stand out from other assets. As an illustration, consider its scarceness and its autonomy from centralized authority. However, as you pointed out, there are no assurances.

But when we think about it, how do we go about making decisions about the future if we are unable to predict it with complete certainty? Assigning probabilities to each of the many alternative possibilities is, in my opinion, one way to come up with a solution. For instance, there are a number of potential outcomes for Bitcoin: it might take over as the primary means of transaction, be overtaken by another cryptocurrency, get banned by governments, become archaic and replaced by something else entirely, etc. Additionally, we can give each of these scenarios a probability. We can therefore still make decisions based on the probability we assign to each possible result even though we can never know for sure what will happen.

So even if we can't be 100% certain, we can still make an informed decision about how much to invest in Bitcoin, how much risk to take, etc. so when I say there's an exception, what I simply mean is that, with the facts gathered from both present and past events, the probabilities assigned to Bitcoin acting differently from it's past performances. Considering those probabilities as certainty is the risk involved in Investment. Without the risks, there won't be any rewards.

Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here.

There is no real evidence that supports that HODL generally applies to shitcoins.. so if you are talking about bitcoin, then yeah the idea of HODL applies because ultimately BTC is a long term investment with strong fundamentals.. so either we HODL, if we are not ready, willing and/or able to buy more or we buy more, that is if we are in BTC accumulation stages.  We can also change our strategy that does not involve as much HODL, if we have over accumulated or if we might otherwise be in a position to change our strategy a bit away from HODL, but likely even if someone might get away from accumulation stage, he still may well choose not to sell all of his bitcoin, absent some emergency kinds of situation, and if he does not have other assets / currency upon which he can draw upon first.