Topic: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands - page 6. (Read 3149 times)

In life their are always challenges, problems are always around the corners, if you allow challenges to hold you down it will be impossible to bitcoin.  Hodling is not easy for anyone but people made it possible because of good decision to make sure they accomplished good profit holding.  If we always look up to our challenges,  we won't be to hodl bitcoin.

We are here to discuss every aspect of the issue. For you, Bitcoin is a store of value, and your main source of income lies elsewhere. But what about other people, maybe Bitcoin trading the main source of profit for them? Shouldn't they be able to trade their Bitcoins to make a profit to feed their families? And maybe the accumulated money they earn from short-term investments will be accumulated by them in Bitcoin? not fiat currency, so short-term Bitcoin trading is just their job (trader). So, what's wrong for you doesn't necessarily mean it's not right for others, right?

I agree with you about the power of compound interest, holding and accumulating a valuable asset for a long time will bring huge profits. Certainly, long-term investments should be several years or more (based on Bitcoin's growth cycle, 4 years or more is ideal), but what we are considering are ideal investment conditions when we have a stable source of income, and are not too old. For older people who don't have much time left, or those whose income is not very stable, should they not invest in Bitcoin in the short term? Bitcoin is a good asset, but everyone's investment taste is different, and each person's holding level will also be different depending on their conditions, not everyone is in ideal conditions to holding an investment for too long a period of time. The ultimate purpose of investing or accumulating valuable assets is still to serve our lives and future generations, right?

That is not true.  If you consider that the meaning of taking profits is that you have gotten more dollars, and then you take profits in dollars, your dollars might not be holding value as well as you believe that they are, and so you are being mislead about the benefits of taking profits and/or even when it might be prudent to "take profits."   Another thing is that if you look at bitcoin over the long term, then even if there is a lot of up and down volatility, the ultimate direction of volatility has been in the upwards direction, so taking profits from the most sound (pristine) asset that has ever existed may well end up putting you on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer of our time (and perhaps in history).


It is a dangerous game to be fucking around with trading the best asset... but hey do what you like and hopefully you don't get caught on the wrong side of a trade... and another problem might be playing with leverage to make it even worse if you are on the wrong side of an asset that is generally already has been winning quite a bit and likely to continue to win and you don't even have to play with leverage, which makes it available to everyone so long as they mostly buy and hold and don't be fucking around with getting in and out and taking chances.

By the way the guys who might have bought at the top of the 2021 periods are likely now back in profits, and even more so if they had been buying all along rather than fucking around with getting in and out, which might not work out very well... so in that sense, ongoing buying becomes almost a sure bet (even though nothing is guaranteed), and so even if their costs might have ended up relatively high because of their buying at relatively high price times, there were a lot of opportunities over the last couple of years to bring down their cost per BTC and to be sitting in a very good position right now, and they would not even be needing to sell, merely because if they are in profits and have the option to sell, there likely will be a lot of opportunities and additional options if they continue to hold and perhaps even continue to buy and especially if their investment timeline might be for longer terms such as for the next 4-10 years or longer.


4-10 years or longer from any additional purchase, and surely if a guy might start as a brand new investor, he might consider regular investments might take 30-40 years to play out and to start to draw from them, but it well could be the case that the time before starting to draw from bitcoin might even be reasonable to cut in half, such as 15-20 years, even though nothing is guaranteed. 

For people who are not brand new investors, they might have to consider how much of an investment portfolio that they had already built up prior to coming into bitcoin, but I would still consider that any new purchases should be considered with a 4-10 year time horizon.. and if your time horizon is less than 4 years, for every new purchase of BTC, then you may well not be a longer term investor... and you may still have your reasons for getting bitcoin exposure for shorter time periods, but I would not necessarily consider new investments of less than 4 years to be long term, but more like gambles that may or may not pay off, so there might need to be some care in regards to position size, especially when devolving into gambling rather than investing.


In long term investing, besides being narrowly focused on profits, you can also think in terms of potentially having more options, especially with an investment like bitcoin that is likely better able to hold its value as compared with the dollar or any other asset that might be held.. so if you hold long enough then your investment likely compounds upon itself, so then you have way more options if you are 3x to 5x to 10x to 50x up in profits as compared to taking simple profits that are less than 100%, which a lot of folks tend to be taking profits way too soon and then they end up interferring with bitcoin's compounding process.  Look at the power of compounding in my post that includes some examples.


To simplify some of the calculations, if you hold your BTC long enough then you likely will have more options in terms of how much profits you are already in, so let's say that your cost per BTC is around $1k per BTC.   And, so if the price of BTC is below $10k per BTC in 2020 (so you are around 10x in profits), and then if the BTC price goes up to where you are 70x in profits and then comes back down to where you are 16x.. does it make big differences if you might just cash some out at various points in time?   It is not like you necessarily have to cash out large portions at a time in order to enjoy having BTC in your holdings.

Yeah, sure you can cash out some extra when the price is 40x, 50x 60x or more, but you are not totally screwed either, even if you might have ended up having to cash out some at lower multiples of profits... and should you worry right now that the BTC price is going to go back to $20k (only 20x in profits)? 

I would think with the passage of time, you see that the 200-WMA continues to move up (which tends to mostly be a bottom indicator).  In 2020, the 200-WMA was ONLY right around $6k, and BTC's price action of 2021 brought it up to $20k, and then currently it is around $31,600.. which mean the bottom is moving up, and the bottom is now 31.6x for the guy with an average cost per BTC of $1k.  You can look at the historical 200-WMA values here.

If you are getting in and out of BTC, are you able to bring down your average cost per BTC? and/or are you able to increase your BTC stash (and your options?)  I think that you are in a much less certain place if you are getting in and out.. rather than engaging in more simple ongoing and consistent BTC building.

As you said profiting-taking phase someone like me that started accumulating and holding  not quite long, would not think of profit-taking phase yet, because I still got a long way to go in my bitcoin accumulation to start thinking of taking profit. We all have goals in our accumulation and haven't gotten to mine yet (my fuck you status) . While those that have gotten to theirs or have accumulated some good quantity for themselves, can start putting profit-taking phase on their Mind and there's a post sir JJG posted concerning bitcoin withdrawal strategies, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63398357

I think choosing to take profits is never wrong. Maybe they determine that their current investment in Bitcoin is a short-term investment. When the time and profit level match the rules they initially set, they will take profits, whether that strategy is good or not good depends on each person's goals. I know a few friends who went through the 2021 cycle with the expectation that Bitcoin would reach 100k USD to take profits. They had really strong hands for a very long time to achieve that target, but then they missed the rising wave that year when Bitcoin price only reached 69k USD and turned around. And now, those friends of mine no longer play the old way, but they play according to every wave of the market. And from the beginning of 2023 until now, they have had very significant profits.
According to you, how long do you think long-term holding should be? Or just hold it without thinking about the profit-taking phase. This topic is clearly discussing about long-term holding, but we must know how long we will hold Bitcoin? Because basically buying Bitcoin and holding it is just an investment process, and investing requires thinking about profit. We can't just hold on without paying attention to how the market goes up or down.

Unfortunately, those in this category are more, the buy and hold for few months or few years and then sell their entire assets leaving the money in stable coins or even convert to fiat. The funny part is that some will use the proceeds from the Bitcoin trade to buy several altcoins/memecoins and call it diversification and when the bear season starts, where they plan to buy the bitcoin back comes, they would only buy less that the initial quantity of Bitcoin they had even when they cannot account for how they spent the proceed of the first sale during the bull market. Under this arrangement, there is no growth in terms of total bitcoin in their possession instead they experience decline. This is why I don't want to follow that approach of selling all my bitcoin during bull market with the plan of buying them back during bear market because I cannot guarantee how I will spend the proceeds and to avoid the temptation because bitcoin have remained the most reliable place to store my funds.

I will not call this lack of knowledge but personal preference. They have eyes to see how rich those who held from the early days have become. So they know how great holding for long is but decided to go for short term. It is their choice even though that is not what I consider the best practice. You do not need complicated knowledge to start investing and managing your bitcoin properly. This has been discussed several times.

You are actually right on this bro, Bitcoin investment is more beneficial to a long term thinker or a long term holder, just look at the statistics of Bitcoin of how it has grown and gain popularity over the years, It has practically behaved like a fine 🍷 wine, it has gotten better with age, I believe that with the uniqueness of Bitcoin, it will get even better.

Lastly, you just don't have to be perfect in knowledge about Bitcoin before you invest, you just need a basic knowledge on how to invest through the DCA method and a deeper knowledge later on how to hold effectively, by having an emergency fund and a source of income, so that you don't have to be eating from your investment when facing financial troubles.

With the little idea I have gotten so far in bitcoin investment I think long-term holding has always been the option for every bitcoiner who is ready to benefit immensely in the business because bitcoin has shown a lot of encouragement, I don't know why people still have doubt or think that the best investment strategy here is to their money and pull it out in the couple of months, though their are premature sellers because of market speculations but this is not suppose to be so, that's why it is advisable for every bitcoiner to have a knowledge of how to things are been done in Bitcoin before we can investment to avoid unnecessary panic.

Yes.  I agree that it is more challenging to enter into an investment after the price has risen a lot, including if you consider that bitcoin has risen right around 4x since November 2022  or even more than 2x since October 2023.

Nonetheless, as an investor, especially a newbie who might be considering establishing a BTC position, you may well want to make sure that you are prepared for either UP or down, and the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy some bitcoin.  If you do not have any bitcoin, then you are not prepared for UP, and waiting does not constitute being prepared for up.

Now as a newbie if you think that you are some kind of expert or you have some kind of superior knowledge (or hunch) that the BTC price is going to drop, then maybe you would risk waiting, but that seems to be just gambling rather than really being serious about investing.

One of the best strategies for anyone, including newbies, would be to perform some kind of a lump sum investment right away, but then to make sure that he has additional funds (whether from cashflow or just holding back some of the invested amount) to either keep buying no matter what and to also potentially hold back some funds in order to prepare to buy on dips.

One of the problems with lump sum investing and also the situation of a lot of normies is that normies (meaning most normal people) do not have have abilities to lump sum, and that is why DCA tends to be so effective and/or practical. So if there is some cash just coming in on a regular basis and some of that is considered disposable/discretionary income, then you determine how much of that you want to dedicate to investing into bitcoin, and then the question would be whether to invest right away or to hold some of it back for buying on dips.

Another thing is that if someone is new to investing, it well could take 10 years (at 10% invested/saved) to be able to invest up to a year's salary, so it take a whole fucking long time to really build any kind of meaningful portfolio, so if you happen to be someone who is fairly new to investing and you have been investing way less than 10 years, you are probably better off just DCAing most of the amount that you allocate, and perhaps considering whether there might be some value to holding some of that back for buying on dips.

Now if you are someone who has other funds that you can allocate, then that puts you into a situation of someone who can lump sum part of that, and if you are someone who has been investing into bitcoin for several years, then you also might have the luxury of letting off on your DCA in these price territories, but it still may not necessarily make sense to let off on your BTC accumulation unless you have figured out some strategies in which you have already assessed that you have accumulated enough BTC or that you have over accumulated.  If you are not able to make those kinds of determinations, then it probably would be better to just continue buying BTC regularly until you reach such status. .and that is surely and truly under your own criteria that you would reach such an assessment about your own situation.

If you are merely looking at the current BTC price move, that is only one of the factors, and surely, you might consider that there are better places to put your money - even though personally, it seems like a problematic determination, especially if you have already assessed that you have neither reached sufficient/adequate BTC accumulation or overaccumulation.


Of course, if you have  spent a considerable amount of time accumulating BTC, then you may well have reached a status of either accumulating enough BTC or even having had over accumulated BTC, so you have more options once you reach those kinds of assessments.. and since you have been registered on this forum for nearly 9 years, since April 2015, you have had a lot of opportunities to accumulate bitcoin throughout the last 9 years, yet at the same time, you likely realize that bitcoin currently is not really in a position of being overly valued - especially considering what happened in the last couple of years and the significant amount of ongoing existent and persistent buying pressures coming from a lot of new categories of buyers, and also including that BIG financial institutions are now starting to market their products that would require that they are backed by actual bitcoin rather than paper bitcoin.

So you should be attempting to account for actual factors that involve assessments of BTC price and whether you might consider that bitcoin has higher price potential from here. You are responsible for coming to your own assessments that would involve how many BTC you believe is sufficient and adequate preparation for up.. and yeah always trying to be prepared financially and psychologically for the BTC price to move in either direction in the short to medium term, while at the same time keeping your eye on the prize, in the event that you actually are able to understand what makes bitcoin valuable and likely more valuable than any other asset currently in existence... and you don't even have to believe all of those kinds of bullish ideas in order to figure out your own allocations and how much you need to assure that you are prepared for either and both possible BTC price directions at the same time based on your assessing the particulars and viewpoints of each of your own assessments of the 9 factors.

Another thing is that it can take a lot of practice to really  get some kind of balance in your own life in terms of assessing the 9 factors so that you end up being comfortable with your own allocation choices, including the extent to which you might feel that you want to approach bitcoin with a whimpy approach or a more aggressive approach, and maybe also assessing if you want to allocate somewhere between 5% to 25% of your investment into bitcoin and so 5% would be on the more whimpy side and 25% would be on the more aggressive side, but you can ONLY afford to be aggressive if you have done some of the necessary studying of your own circumstances.  Of course you are free to go outside of that range, but the 5% to 25% is an initial starting point to figure out where you might fall within that recommended starting range.

The 9 factors you mentioned are certainly very useful as guidelines for managing finances when investing in Bitcoin. I understand that cash flow is the main basis for us to apply the DCA strategy, which is to manage finances as best as possible to be able to accumulate bitcoins in the investment journey. And maybe we will also consider the price side to enter in the early stages of purchasing. Because lately bitcoin has risen significantly so we have to think whether the DCA move is the best strategy for now if we are too late to use it.

Apart from that, if you have collected BTC throughout your investment journey. Do you still do DCA when the price of Bitcoin has recorded its highest price? or it is better to wait for the correction and buy all at once and start over to set the dca when the price has gone down.

DCA calculators do not tell you how much you will make in the future.  They ONLY show past performance, which that does not mean that you would profit in the future. 

I think that it is it better to figure out your own formula in terms of investing as much as you feel comfortable, while realizing that you might not gain any money and you also might lose all of it.

For beginners going into bitcoin, you should at least consider the below 9 factors:. .and DCA with small amounts while you are learning is also o.k. in order that you can determine if you would like to become more aggressive, and at the same time it is important to get started sooner rather than later in order that you can get some kind of a start and even getting set up with how you are going to source your buys can take a bit of time to figure out and maybe to adapt along the way, too.

Since the price of Bitcoin started going up this year, I have seen lot of people talking about Bitcoin especially in this forum advising people to keep buying and holding there Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the only hope we have now apart from the hood altcoins that we have in the market that can give us good profits in the market.

Since Bitcoin started skyrocketing since 35k, there had been a continuous momentum and that should that we are already in the bull. Those that had been holding their Bitcoin since the price was little would be happy right now because they are already in big profits which is a good thing to talk about. Keep holding and wat h your investment increases in price.

The only strategy investors can use to buy, is when there is hopeful sign of increment in the price, topical example is, last week the price of bitcoin was between 50k-51k, just imagine when an investor buy at that price at least he or she would have gained about 11k plus, hence btc price is at 62k plus currently but this doesn't happen every time, event might turn against ones plan, the only method a Bitcoin investor will apply to be successful is long-term holding which you have mentioned already, Bitcoin investment is not for fast money making, it is for those who are ready to endure for a long period of time to participate in the profitable events that is bound to happen at some given number of years.

You're actually wrong, there's no strategy you apply in bitcoin investment that will bring profit within a short period of time except you want to gamble with your investment. Holding bitcoin is totally different from trading and gambling. Holding bitcoin is not so risky like what most people think besides as a newbie you should not channel all your attention on the risk involved when you need to learn about accumulating strategy. The only problem people get with investing is greed, lack of patience and inadequate finance or else I don't get why an investor will want to gamble with bitcoin investment.

Consider me as a guy who is not very old in crypto or a person who learned DCA, LUMP SUM and on DIPS for just a year ago. Because it also take time before you start believing in Bitcoin that it's good investment for long term.
As I already told in earlier post that I have been accumulating (DCA manner) for almost a year ago and I am now fully aware of how to move forward. That's why I am saying that if I aggressively invest for next 6 to 7 years then I will be in some top Hypo's.
You got it right that for me after 20 to 25 years I won't be that young to invest and will need to withdraw what I have been investing for my whole life.   
There are few other investments going in parallel with Bitcoin and if I survive for next 20 to 30 years then I will be able to enjoy that
What I have learned so far is that strategies can be readjusted with time. As I will spend more time here, I will learn more about Bitcoin and might have better plans about investing in Bitcoin.



Well to start invest in Bitcoin you need motivation more then capital. There is no minimum capital you need to start investing in Bitcoin, one can start investing in Bitcoin with any money. Cash flow along with 8 other factors influence your decision about investing in Bitcoin for long term. Those who have never invested a single penny  into Bitcoin will never have idea about what these 9 factors are.

One more factor I want to add to the fact that Bitcoin in circulation is becoming less and less is that today Bitcoin can be used for more purposes, increasing the applicability of Bitcoin instead of just storing it on the exchange like yesterday. They can use Bitcoin to mint NFTs right on the Bitcoin blockchain (Bitcoin Ordinals), thereby trading NFTs, contributing to burning a significant amount of Bitcoin fees as this trend shows no signs of stopping. Additionally, they can use Bitcoin as collateral on Defi applications to seek additional profits instead of just buying and holding on exchanges.

I have been on the lookout for what possible DCA calculator I should use, because as a newbie one of the highest worries I have is how to monitor my Bitcoin investment and what DCA record tools I should adopt that can give me total accurate figures of what my profits percentage is and lose also, because I have the intention to invest at a weekly interval and hold my Bitcoin for at least 4 years which is a one bitcoin halves cycle and by then, I should be able to arrive at a balanced ground in terms of Bitcoin accumulation journey based on my total invested funds.

Bitcoin is a more stable and preferred asset to invest in, the idea of altcoins is all about initial gains and they are not reliable to hold cause it's so risky that we could lose our funds to them, most altcoins that experience a price crash never get up from it, but bitcoin has experience several and bounced back, showing that it's a better asset to invest in.

The bull run has come and I'm seeing a lot of person's that  just started investing talking about selling and I wonder why, are there all about the gains too or the compound omg value which happens to be more with every year, taking profits is not bad but when you end up taking too much and you risk yourself by putting yourself in a situation where you cant buy back at same price or even lower, bitcoin is an ever moving asset and it's best you sit on the bus and wait for your destination and it doesn't have to be a short term journey. Advice to newbies


Yeah I can see a lot of demand pressure increasing since many holders are getting smart to be self custodians.

Most person's won't even sell till they see bitcoin at 100k, like all over the media I just see everyone talking about it.

I think this bull run came with a lot of fuel to shock the world with an outstanding ATH, we are all speculating the best what else can we do.

It's not this thread, but it is over the years more and more people had been taking their coins off of exchanges, including a lot of the fear from the various scammers from 2022, such as Terra Luna, Blockfi, Celsius, 3AC, Voyager, FTX and Genesis.. .. So those kinds of scams cause more and more people to take their coins into self-custody, and so when there is so much demand for more and more BTC, the BTC are not available... including that if the various ETFs buy the coins, they are not allowed to recirculate them, they are supposed to stay in their custody, so that causes additional upward pressures on BTC prices..because of the less liquidity.. of course, if the price goes up, then some folks will move their coins onto exchanges to sell them, but I am kind of thinking that we are going to need 2x to 3x price increases from here to incentivize some folks to want to sell some of their coins, and that still might not be enough coins to address the liquidity problem that currently continues to exist.

I have seen a few post lately about low liquidity in Bitcoin even as price continues to rise. Could this low liquidity be as a result of more people willing to HODL now as captured by thus thread? In other words, could it be that the campaign I'm this thread is actually making real impact in the market? I know we might think that we are little investors discussing here but the truth is that the forum is home to most of the big players in the market, they come here for information even without anyone noticing who is who.