Topic: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands - page 13. (Read 3149 times)

I just revisited my calculations and went through your post and concluded you are right about Lump Sum.

• If somebody had Lump Sum invested 20k$ on Nov 8, 2021 when price of Bitcoin was ATH of 67k$ then he defiantly will be in loss at the moment. Even after 2 years of that Lump Sum investment.
• Even if you back to Dec 2019 when price of Bitcoin went high to 19k$ then investing 20k$ at that time would be hard to recover.

Case of DCA will be different and will produce positive results if calculated over a period of longer duration.
Just like we can't compare Apple with Oranges, so better not compare DCA with Lump Sum.

Personally, I do not get very excited about any kinds of demo or practice accounts, except maybe if somehow you are prohibited from using real money.. but then you better figure out some way to use real money in order to make any kind of experience more real..

So personally I believe that it is better to practice with real money, and sure maybe you have some trouble getting to the minimum order size and sometimes if you are real poor then the fees might end up being higher because there might be various fees such as flat fees and percentages that end up causing the transaction to cost higher, so there frequently will be desires, especially for more financially challenged folks to find ways to save on fees and other transaction costs.


Over the past year, and maybe even the last 3 months we have seen that there might be practicality to accumulate BTC on an exchange prior to creating a UTXO, especially for poor people.

I also do believe it is best to try to minimize your exchange exposure, but you also need to look out for your own best interest in terms of balancing how much to leave on exchanges versus various current or future potential transaction costs that might come through creating a bunch of small UTXOs.

Theymos may well be a bit off in his recommendation, especially when applied to some smaller accounts.


There is no guarantee to get a profit, even if the chart shows historically what the profit levels have been.


Actually that is what I specifically like about the chart.  It does not really tell us about our own holdings, especially if we have a whole hell of a lot of transactions, but it tells us about the level of profits of any transactions on any particular day, to the extent that we are able to narrow in on a particular day.

If we have a bunch of transactions and various dates and various transaction amounts, we may well need to use a different tool to figure out our average portfolio costs.

Even though I really like the tool, there is some aspect of non-reality (or maybe bad recommendation) in terms some folks who might buy BTC and then just sit on their investment or if they fantasize about buying on one day or another and then what would have had happened.  That is kind of a trader and gambling mindset, and one of the smartest things is to actively manage your holdings by continuing to buy, whether that is lump summing, buying on dips and/or DCAing... and for sure if you lump sum at a certain point and then the BTC price goes down rather than up, it may well be a good idea to have some money left over to either be able to buy on the dip or to DCA.

On the other hand, if you buy and the BTC price mostly just goes up from the point of your purchase, then maybe you just sit on your investment for as long as you believe is necessary until you cash out.. in the event that you don't create some longer term BTC portfolio plans that might involve cashing out incrementally rather than concluding that you are justified to cash out a bunch at one time, even if you conclude it to be sufficiently profitable for your own likings.


For sure there is compounding effect that comes from holding over more than one cycle, and sure it is possible that a person gets so much compounding effect merely in one cycle that he cannot resist except to sell, so that is understandable, yet in bitcoin there has been greater and greater compounding effects to hold longer and longer, rather than cashing out, yet of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, even if we should not conclude that bitcoin's investment thesis has gotten weaker (rather than stronger) over the past cycle or two... Bitcoin surely does seem to possess some Lindy effect qualities in which the longer it is in existence the stronger it seems to get.. or at least the more we might be able to conclude that it is is going to continue to exist, even if the returns might not be as great (in terms of percentages) as they were in the past, but part of any investment is not ONLY considering upside potential but also getting some value in the solidification that lesses downside potential... while still not guaranteeing any of these price performance matters in either direction.


You have to also presume some abilities to lump sum, which may well not be options, and I already largely responded to those ideas in this post.

I just have a small working on DCA vs LUM SUM Profit.

DCA:
If you invest 100 dollars per week into bitcoin starting from Dec 27, 2019 to Dec 27, 2023. Then your total investment is 20900$ in Bitcoin and ROI after 4 years will be +119% or your total investment goes up to 24870$

LUM SUM investment and HODL:
If you invest total 20900$ in Bitcoin on Dec 27, 2019 and HODL for 4 years then today your ROI will be +505% or investment goes up to 105690$.


https://dcacryptocalculator.com/

Likewise if you go to https://dcacryptocalculator.com/ and play with figures then you will notice that Lum sum investment also gives good result if you are willing to HODL for longer duration.

You are doing good practice but if any newbie is still curious and wondering that DCA is good or bad for their investment, they can create an account on Coinmarketcap and do regular DCA with their demo account. They will see DCA effects that are good for investment in long term but they will miss some time and chances to do it with demo DCA.

Perhaps you did not mean it, your account, I hope it means your non custodial wallet, not exchange account.

• Reminder: do not keep your money in online accounts

Bitcoin market cycle is about 4 years but the map shows us an interesting fact, if hodlers can hold their bitcoins more than 5 years, they surely get profit so far.

Because each hodler can have different entry and exit time and consequent prices so they can enter at very high price, stuck there and if they only hold their bitcoin like 4 years, they might have loss, even it is very small chance to fall into that minor cases.

If they can think bigger than only one market cycle, longer than only 4 years, they will have a safer investment strategy and also get better opportunities to gain profit.

• Bitcoin Profitable Days
• % profitable days holding Bitcoin: 94.1%

Hmm, OP interesting Topic
Just as Hodl words are easily discovered, so it gives profit easily. Well, as you rightly said, Hodl can give you profit easily, like your name, i.e., words. Invest in BTC for long-term investment and enjoy life by earning a profit. By the way, HODL is a unique strategy that can give you a profit. However, even if you don't know much about cryptocurrency and know some basics, HODL can organize your profit. Just simply buy the Dip and HODL will give you a profit in return.
 
Anywhere when I hear about HODL, I am delighted because, from the beginning till now, I have made the most profit in HODL, i.e. Bored in Buy the Dip and HODL. I had also made a profit by diversifying his portfolio under DCA for HODL. So I was a little excited after hearing about HODL. Everyone else has their own choice; some prefer holding, some prefer trading.

The HODL camp map may be a non-illustrative map or we are not used to seeing it, so it is difficult to read, but its philosophy is simple, which is that profit is achieved within more than 4 years. Losses occur if you decide to buy after 6 months of halving with the intention of selling in the short term, so it is a representation in a way Or another for the 4-year bitcoin cycles.

Thanks for the information, this is the first time I know that there is an application for this word as charts.

Hodli is very simple and needs less skill, which makes it the best way to increase your bitcoin hodling. As long as you know how to save money in a bank, which is a practice that many of us have tried in different times in our lives. Id you see that the money is very important to achieve something good, you will save it so that you can achieve your goal. This is the same thing with bitcoin, the money that you are saving in the bank, just use to to buy bitcoin and keep piling them up in your self custody wallet until you have reached your bitcoin target. It is good to have a bitcoin target as this will give you a better chance to increase your bitcoin portfolio and also be patient with hodli.

One of the best means to make a profitable Investment with bitcoin is when we decided to hodl the coin for some time, this is not because we are not interested about using it to serve for its purpose as a digital currency we use for making payments or as a means of exchange, but we wanted to hodl all because we also have the opportunity of using bitcoin as an asset we could Invest on hodl for a particular time to yield profits instead of turning a liability provided we have the tenacity for doing that.

Yeah it's better to not get into all this technical staffs unless you really want to learn it. HODL should be simple. Just keep on accumulating and forget about them unless you have an emergency and you need the money at once. Don't ever check Bitcoin price on a regular basis. That creates a FOMO and people usually fall for it.

Bitcoin is like bluechip stocks. The longer it stays in your account, the better return it gives. You can use any simple portfolio apps simi6to the CMC one. Keep it simple!;

HODL has become inherent among investors, for HODL is the power to keep adding to bitcoin holdings.

I still find it difficult to understand the graph here https://hodl.camp I am more another DCA calculation calculator as mentioned above, even so, I always record every bitcoin purchase on Coinmarketcap so that I know the average price purchased and the ROI I get now, so this is not too much of a headache for me.

I just want to add to what you have already said, holding sometimes can be challenging due to so many factors, but as an investors as we are, we need to look for a way to navigate our way in the crypto space for us to be successful.
I suggest we take a look at this thread I created about holding https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63316374

Thank you. I know there are many websites for Dollar Cost Averaging but I did not intend to list all of them here but anyway, I am thankful for the information.