Topic: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands - page 5. (Read 3149 times)

It's really nice to make a long-term investment in bitcoin; in fact, every time the appropriate year comes, you will decide if you will sell some of the profits you get from it. Then save again little by little; that's the simple thing to do, right?

Especially now that Bitcoin is doing well in the market, even though the price value of bitcoin continues to increase, the number of people who buy bitcoin in the field industry of the crypto space continues to increase.

They also forget to use Bitcoin as a benchmark from where the value of their capital is based from? Why? Because if a "trader" can't outperform Bitcoin, then why be a "trader"? Simply be a HODLer and try add units in your capital in Bitcoin by buying the DIP and/or DCA.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


There probably should be a service that accepts Bitcoin as collateral for borrowing fiat, then use the fiat to earn in money market funds.

Absolutely! Bitcoin's history has demonstrated that its price can fluctuate dramatically. While the overall trend has been upward, this is not guaranteed to continue indefinitely. Attempting to time the market by buying low and selling high may appear to be a wise decision, but it is ultimately a gamble. You might be lucky a few times, but one bad call might wipe out all your winnings.

Investing in Bitcoin should be considered a long-term plan. Focus on the larger picture rather than attempting to predict what the price will do in the short term.



You're right! When it comes to investing, especially in a volatile market like Bitcoin, it's all too tempting to become greedy. People can become so focused on the prospect for large profits that they lose sight of the larger picture and make decisions based on emotions and FOMO rather than logic and strategy.

The irony is that by attempting to time the market and earn even more money, many investors wind up missing out on returns that would have resulted from a more disciplined, long-term strategy.


Buying and holding Bitcoin can be a bit of a mental balancing act, especially when the price is rising. On the one hand, not owning Bitcoin may make you feel like you're missing out on possible earnings. On the other hand, it can be difficult to make the decision to buy in when price is already high. That's why it's important to remember that Bitcoin is a long-term investment, so we should always try to see the broad picture. Purchasing and holding even a small amount now could yield significant returns in the future.
Once you've purchased some Bitcoin, you'll likely feel more invested (literally and figuratively) in its future success. This can result in a shift in mindset—rather than fretting about short-term price fluctuations, you may begin to think more long-term, paying greater attention to industry trends and potential new Bitcoin use cases. You may even find yourself delving deeper into the realm of bitcoin, learning about it and blockchain technologies.

Essentially, purchasing Bitcoin can begin a path of discovery and growth that extends beyond simply holding a piece of digital asset.

People who aren't convinced about Bitcoin may not see the potential benefits right away. It's like trying to persuade someone who has never had sushi that they are missing out on something incredible—they may not understand until they give it a try. Even yet, the lighting moment may take some time to occur.
As a Bitcoin lover, it's heartbreaking to see people miss out on possible income and benefits. However, keep in mind that not everyone will immediately join the train. Patience and education are crucial when it's comes to telling people about Bitcoin.

Spreading the Bitcoin gospel can be difficult, but patience and education will serve you well. Not everyone will get crypto fever right away, and that's fine. But if you persist with it, you might be able to show others the potential of Bitcoin and why it could be a good investment.
Consider it that you're not attempting to force anyone to use Bitcoin; you're simply planting the seed of an idea. With time and exposure, that seed may blossom into a greater understanding and interest in Bitcoin. And who knows. They may even thank you for showing them the light of Bitcoin

If someone does not believe in bitcoin, then they might not feel FOMO or even really realize how much they are missing out until several years later, and sometimes it will be necessary to really point out the difference between investing in bitcoin versus other kinds of investments that they could have made before it might start to sink in that bitcoin would have had been a better investment.

Also, sometimes it is not really clear either regarding whether bitcoin is better or not, and several of us who have been into bitcoin longer notice these kinds of longer term trends and even some of us might become a bit wowed by how well a consistent BTC accumulation strategy ended up paying off.. and so it is even more apparent when new ATHs are being made.. but at the same time, if someone is coming in new, it could take them a whole cycle to build up their BTC holdings and even start to really be able to see positive results  (and we know that positive results are not guaranteed, either, so position size has to be accounted for in order to realize that positive results are not guaranteed).

those that kept waiting for the down is their loss, I don't see any reason or motive why one keep waiting for the dip Before they would consider accumulating , to me is just off and risky because through such act one may endup missing out. (And you don't want to experience such feeling) , they still have time to start now without even going all in at once , that why we have. DCA method, which would really help them in building good portfolio in a long run (when buying at different price interval) . Anytime I have the thought of all the opportunity have missed back then due to ignorance I always felt bad, but still any time I still think about the great opportunity that is yet to come in the nearest future it always got me inspired that there's still time to be among those that got their lives change for the better by investing in bitcoin.

Well if the trend of bitcoin is generally up (which surely seems to be the case from history and there is no real evidence that it is going to stop), then if you are selling and waiting for down, you are just being greedy, and the down may or may not end up happening, but if the trend is generally up, then there are decent odds that the down won't happen, and you will end up selling too much too soon, so even if you had gotten lucky on several occasions, it may ONLY take one time of bad luck to wipe out all of the prior gains. 

So people can do what they like, even dumb things and even screwing up a mostly HODLing and accumulating system that is bound to be considerably profitable.. but for some reason, part of the problem is the desire for even more profit than is already likely to happen through following a more straight forward strategy.

Surely during times like this many of us feel better if we had already bought and accumulated bitcoin, yet we might feel in a kind of dilemma if we don't have any BTC or we don't have many BTC, so in that regard, we end up being forced to buy if we want to benefit from the possibility (and probability) of more UP - even though psychologically it can be a bit difficult to establish a stake.  At the same time, once one establishes some kind of stake in bitcoin, then they are at least more prepared for UP than they had been without a stake.. and they have better chances for being prepared for either direction if they already have some bitcoin, versus if they are just waiting for down that may or may not end up happening.

Sometimes people caught up on fantasy that they can earn once they trade and became pro but they forget to know that it need full time or full attention so if they can't put their presence on their trades then there's a high chance for them to lose. That's why its never recommended for the to do it and that means trading is not for everyone. That's why there's other option that can take by busy persons or regular dudes which it doesn't need heavy technical skills and the only thing they can do is to have some plans for future then accumulate then wait for many years for bitcoin to increase its price. Although there will be a lot of challenges but if they gain experience for doing it and financially prepared for sure they can be successful on their HODL plan. At early stage of their career trading is been introduce for sure these guys will realize that to hodl bitcoins is more better option rather than trading it regularly.

That's a really nuanced and accurate view of the potential risks of trading, and I believe it's important to underline that for those thinking about entering into trading. It is not something that can be learned quickly, and not everyone is cut out for it. Developing proficiency in trading, like any other ability, requires time and practice. And, as you mentioned, there is a significant difference between investing and gambling. It is essential for people to be honest with themselves about their own strengths and limitations, and to avoid engaging in risky actions that could lead to financial disaster.

There is a significant distinction between investing for the long term and scalping for short-term gains. When someone buys Bitcoin and then sells it for a profit, it's easy to consider it as a simple investment, which in reality is nothing comparable to Bitcoin Investment. But when you zoom out and look at the broader picture, things get even more perplexing Investing in Bitcoin is about more than just generating a quick profit; it's about realizing the technology's potential and the long-term value it may provide to society. This is why you cannot realize the true benefits of Bitcoin by scalping for short-term profit.

Well, I believe there are many people who have a basic understanding of Bitcoin and regard it as a simple investment opportunity. They are unaware of the capabilities of blockchain technology or the broader ramifications of decentralized finance. As a result, they may only see the opportunity for a fast profit, rather than considering Bitcoin's long-term benefits. But, at the same time, I believe there are many people who comprehend the broader ramifications of Bitcoin and see it as much more than a quick profit opportunity, and these are the people who really understands and reaps the true benefit of Bitcoin.

It is true that even the most experienced traders make mistakes, and no one can foresee the future with absolute certainty. As a result, it is critical to be realistic about the dangers associated with trading and to have a risk management strategy in place. That's why I think it's so important to have other options such as having an emergency fund as well as other income streams, outside of trading. I also believe it is crucial to have a balanced life with interests and hobbies outside of trading.

One thing I learned is that some people become so obsessed with trading that it consumes their entire lives. They devote all of their time and attention to trying to make a profit, ignoring other crucial aspects of their lives. This might lead to burnout and even poor trading decisions due to a lack of self-care. So, I believe it's important to strike a healthy balance between trading and the rest of your life. Whether it means spending time with friends and family, pursuing hobbies, or simply relaxing and recharging.

The word 'holdling' to me means 'patience' because any one who is not patient cannot hold and it is good for us to know that every investment comes with it's own risk so whatever investment strategy that you choose, you should be able to manage the risks that comes along with it. For me holding Bitcoin is not that difficult as some persons thinks it is because you buy, hodl and if you want to continue buying subsequently, use the DCA and watch your investment grow. I don't think there's any stress in it so the only thing difficult here is your consistency to keep accumulating when you are using the DCA so that you won't ever miss any of your buying time and for this consistency to continue then a reliable and efficient source of income would be required as that's all what you need in the hodling process.

The benefits that comes along with holding, more especially for a long time, cannot be measured with trading or doing manual works on a regular basis because those things makes you physically and psychologically unstable because it is something that is required of you at all times more like hodling and continuing other life activities.

yah right, though someone may claim to be a professional trader, doesn't mean that he or she would always win in their trading. Though you may be skillful as a pro trader after a long time of learning about how trading work and all that, doesn't makes losses negligible because as trader still you  can't predict the market movement , and most time  market may not move you way . The other things that differentiates a pro trader from a normies is their experience and the way they managed themselves when trading, and pro traders still make mistakes (because as humans we band to make mistakes) that may cause them huge losses now think about a normies with half-size knowledge. So I also agree that doing some regular jobs outside this space to increase your income. would be better than taking trading as a full time because is either you win or you loss. Have seen a scenario whereby someone lose his whole capital in trading expecially those that engage with future trading. That in most cases people takes trading as side hustling, as someone who's still new in this space and still have a thing for trading I would advice you to have a good job outside this space, trade wisely and as you are trading Same time try all means to allocate more percentage of your earnings in  accumulation of  some quantity of bitcoin in your portfolio (for holding) .

It seems a bit problematic if you are talking about what traders can do and not incorporating what you are doing and/or planning to do - not that you have to give away any personal details, but it is starting to seem as if you are talking about theory rather than actual practice, when you talk about "the perspective of a trader" and "their skills"

Which leads me to a second point that bothers me about the idea of pumping and/or pushing the idea of trading for normies, as if all the normies should be considering trading techniques.. which surely is not true.. so in that case, fuck trading.

Normies are going to be way the fuck better off to focus on building up their BTC stash first, and if they build up their BTC stash to such a level that it is more than a year of their salary/expenses, then maybe at that point they will be in a position to trade.

Of course, there are some folks who don't have any income producing opportunities, so they may be dependent upon trading to earn an income, but those guys are likely exceptions rather than rules, so we should not be presenting the situations of the exceptions as if it were the base case - especially with an asset like bitcoin.  The odds are pretty good that you are really going to get fucked if you are trying to trade rather than just focusing on accumulating bitcoin through various buying techniques (that are also known as investing), and then when you get to a decently sized stash (maybe a year's worth of income/expenses) invested into BTC, then maybe at that point you can reassess if you want to start to use a portion of your stash for trading purposes, which also might not be an obvious answer regarding whether it would be any benefit to begin to trade rather than just accumulate bitcoin through various buying strategies..

There are situations in which a person might start to feel that he has accumulated enough or more than enough BTC, and then he would have more liberty to sell some BTC in strategic ways and possibly buy back.. but I would still suggest those stages are reached after a lot accumulation rather than a default starting position in regards how to approach your BTC accumulation journey.



I think that I see what you are saying, but you seem to be talking about and referring to specialists rather than normal people.  Sure some normal people might want to get into position of being more expert traders, but most people probably would prefer to continue to do their regular jobs and activities without having to learn specialized trading techniques.


Yes people short term trade.  It is not a good idea for an overwhelming majority of people, maybe more than 80% should not be fucking around with trying to trade, unless they limit their trading portion of their portfolio to maybe less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings, and don't allow for portfolio creep.. when they lose that 10% then they have to wait for new money to come in rather than dipping into the BTC portion of their stash in order to refuel their likely losses.


Well it seems that we mostly agree on this point, even though you seem to be promoting the idea and/or practice of trading as if it were a good idea for normies, and most likely I am disagreeing mostly with your prior lack of highlighting that trading is a specialty that takes a pretty fucking long time to learn and anyone getting into trading likely should not be fucking around with large portions of their BTC stash, and so other words, any normies who want to get into trading likely need to limit their stash while they are learning and practicing and building up their skills.. and of course, people are free to do whatever they want in terms of assessing their skills and their abilities to trade, but it also seems that a lot of folks get false senses of their own grandeur and tend to devolve into gambling while proclaiming that they are investing, when they are not.


We can agree to disagree, and when I am talking about the 4 years or longer time line to be an investor, I am specifically talking about bitcoin.


It probably also depends on the asset.


Of course we don't know with any level of certainty, but I am not going to just make up shit without assessing the asset, and with bitcoin we have had 4 year cycles and there is little to no evidence that they are stopping, even though they could end up stopping and/or lessening or changing in their patterns, that does not mean that we are better off to try to trade or to call ourselves investors who like to fuck around trying to figure out short-term waves in order to benefit from such short term price moves...

Don't get me wrong, there is no problem to attempt to prognosticate variations in the historical patterns in order to apply that to the future or even attempting to prepare oneself for variation in past patterns.. because in essence any investor should attempt to be prepared for variations in past patterns and even short term price movements that go beyond expectations, and so any investor should be attempting to already know in advance how he is going to deal with such variations, whether it is continuing to buy, buying on dips, lump sum investing or other strategies, and surely the more BTC that the person has, then they might be in a position to also incorporate selling into their strategy to play waves.. but I am not going to presume that anyone can trade their way up to having enough bitcoin. they more likely need to get to that position of having enough (or more than enough) bitcoin prior to fucking around with selling any of it...

You don't sell something like bitcoin in order to accumulate more, but you can start to sell bitcoin once you have accumulated enough and/or more than enough. .which tends to take a quite a bit of time to get to such point. .. accumulating enough and/or more than enough bitcoin is not a newbie status.. and in that regard, it is usually going to take a whole cycle to get to such status of sufficient and/or more than sufficient BTC accumulation. ...  

By the way, with your own forum registration date, maybe there can be a presumption that you have ONLY been in bitcoin for a year and a half.. so if that might be the case, then I would be having doubts that you would have had a sufficient amount of time to accumulate enough BTC or more than enough BTC in order to be fucking around with selling.. but hey you can correct me, if you have an earlier entry date or if you were able to sufficiently/adequately front-load your BTC investment in order to be in a sufficiently comfortable position to be fucking around with trying to trade the most pristine asset known to mankind, to date.


It does not matter.  Error on the side of accumulation and/or over accumulation, and then once you get to that point, then you will have more options, otherwise don't be fucking around trying to guess short-term price moves or even possible BIG waves in bitcoin.. .and I am not even suggesting to completely ignore the likely patterns including times in which we might be in blow off tops, yet even if any of us might be considering that we might be entering a blow off top periods, if we have not yet accumulated enough BTC that might not mean to sell our BTC, but of course, if we are in a position that it seems plausible to sell some of our BTC an there seems to be a blow off top, then those are our choices to consider whether to sell and how much to sell.. and whether we might or might not be wrong and if we might be selling too much of our BTC in case we might not be correct.  Yes, some of these choices depend partly upon how much BTC you might have accumulated in light of your other personal circumstances (you can see my list of 9 factors to see to what I am referring) that only you can assess. (and you might be wrong on some of them, especially if you are putting too much weight into predicting BTC prices rather than the other 8 factors).


That sounds like swing trading and not investing, but call it whatever you like.


Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here in this thread.


This part is redundant..  seems that I already stated my position.  You can do what you like and to muddy categories (and express yourself in muddied and garbled ways) in terms of what you call people and how you treat bitcoin (and/or crypto), and I am not going to agree with the framing, even though it is not such a big deal to get into arguments about semantics, but more important to understand what you are actually doing and saying rather than getting caught up on what word(s) is (are) being used.

Maybe one further point would be that if you are valuing your wealth in short term dollars, and you might not recognize and/or appreciate the value of bitcoin as a long term investment, even though you give lip service to your recognizing and appreciating such, this could be part of the explanation why you come to conclusions that making short term dollar profits from bitcoin could still cause bitcoin to fall within the category of investment - because you are thinking in terms of scalping dollars from short-term Upward BTC price moves... so then you lock in your dollar profits, and you consider that you had invested into bitcoin and you had profited from such investment.

I am not going to give the benefit of the doubt to such arguments that value bitcoin in terms of short-term price moves, even though technically it may well not be incorrect, and part of the reason for my ongoing reluctance and stubborness in that direction has to do with what I consider to be my own appreciation of the truly grand paradigm-shifting power of bitcoin that should bring wonder and awe to anyone who truly understands what bitcoin is and what it brings to the world, besides its mere number go up technology. 

Sure, bitcoin has number go up technology, but it is a lot more than merely number go up technology since it brings options and power to those who hold it for the long term, even if the cost per BTC of some folks might be higher than others, in the end, there is a lot of power that comes from how many BTC you hold and it is likely going to continue to come to those who hold a lot of BTC... and maybe in some sense I am contradicting myself, since I already stated that there could be situations in which guys conclude that they have enough or more than enough BTC - even though at the same time there is a lot of power and prestige from holding a lot of BTC. 

In my own recognition and appreciation that we can hold enough or more than enough BTC, I am trying to also recognize and appreciate that  we are mortal and we also have consumption needs, including living in a world that has a lot of various other inferior assets and currencies that might also be included in the types of assets that we hold for the purpose of diversification and for the purpose of our own transactions and consumption.. and/or maybe our ways of also earning more value through the various other inferior assets/currencies.

What I analyze is from the perspective of a trader, with their skills they can trade in the medium and short term to seek profits in USD, then they can use those profits to Buy and accumulate Bitcoin as a collateral for them. That's their job, so whether a person sells in the short or long term does not indicate that they do not view Bitcoin as an asset worth storing or see it as a gambling. You know what I mean?



I understand you. Traders are a job that requires a lot of skill, and not everyone can be successful with daily trading, especially with an asset like Bitcoin. It is really difficult for us to predict its trend, for example, currently, no one knows where Bitcoin will go, all predictions about the cycle or history no longer seem to be correct at the current stage. I also do not encourage anyone to use leverage or futures trading, because this is the fastest way to destroy all your assets if you do not have the skills.
However, what I am saying is just analyzing all aspects of a problem, whether we admit it or not, it still exists, some people hold it and some people choose to trade short-term, right? Do you agree with me that there are still people out there who are successful traders, they know what they have to do, although this number is not many. I just want to point out what's going on in the market, not try to convince anyone to trade short-term or take profits on their Bitcoin.


I don't think holding for less than 4 years is not considered investment, but gambling as you said. It depends on each person's investment taste. We are only taking the 4-year mark to correspond to the growth cycle as well as the halving cycle of Bitcoin, but what if this year the cycle is different, there are no longer 4 years but only 3 years? No one knows for sure, right? If we consider 4 years as the minimum number for investment, then will we ignore the growth cycle if it only lasts 3 years? Some people only determines it as an investment for 2 years, then at the end of 2 years they can sell it, and convert their crypto investment portfolio to another category, such as real estate, for example. Why consider them not as investors, but as gamblers?

This is very much correct that DCA calculators does not give idea of how Bitcoin will behave in the future. But to learn the real essence of DCA for long term there is no better tool then DCA calculator. They give you idea of what benefit Bitcoin gave to people who keep investing in Bitcoin continuously over a period of time. You can give different parameters to these calculators and see the results.

Once you have data from past then it can help you in making your own formula for future investment.

If you are new then start with small amount and one can increase it once he get to know about how the market behave. Anyone new to crypto market won't immediately understand about benefits of DCA, LUMP SUM and on Dips unless he start investing with his own money.  Apart from these 9 points, there are few Hypo's that can also guide you about your position if you are long term investor into Bitcoin.
 
The point is we don't know what will happen in future but we can figure out our way forward by studying the historical data available.   

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58719590

There actually is, and it's called shorting. From the word itself "short" that means an investor is expecting profits within a short span, contrary to holding long term. Most traders are doing this and that's one of the major causes as to why there is a short decline whenever bitcoin made a huge pump of over $1k or two. I think that's what the person you quoted meant about "the higher the profit, the higher the risk", I presume the risks involved how much capital you're willing to short. Nevertheless, bitcoin is a lot less riskier than any other crypto in the market today. Holding it for long term will almost guarantee a profit as long as an investor will not get affected by the price swings, especially during a prolonged bear market just like in 2018.

Hardly anyone listened in the real world.  There were a couple of examples of people partly listening, but then they end up screwing up in various ways of selling too much too soon or getting involved in shitcoins and other things like that, and sometimes they just say, I should have listened to you, and then I will say, "well get started now, it is not too late."  But they still do not tend to get started, and some of them who listen the second, third or forth time around, they still make similar mistakes of getting shaken out of their position one way or another or having "bills to pay" and blah blah blah.


Well I also suggested to people to just start with $10 per week and just get used to it, even though since 2020, I have been saying $100 per week is preferable, but still if they are whimpy about it, they can do whatever, they like and they should be able to manage $10 per week to get used to it..

I do recognize that people from poorer countries might struggle with $10 per week, so they have to figure out an amount that works for their budget, such as $10 per month, and then try to figure if there might be a way that they can increase their investment later by either increasing their income or cutting their expenses.


I am not going to deny that it is does take time to add anything to our lives, whether it is buying $10 of bitcoin per week or anything else that we might want to add.. or if we need to learn how to use a new hardware wallet. That might take time to study up on it.  So, there is a need to prioritize, and to make time for something like investing, even if it might be a relatively small amount of someones salary.. and if they don't want to think about it, then they can get involved in some of the exchanges that allow for automatic DCA on a certain day of the week or there are various ways to set it up.  I personally prefer manual DCA, but I understand that if someone does not want to think about it, then they might set up an automatic DCA and look at it every few months or whatever suits the other things going on in their lives.


Waiting is not a good strategy when it comes to bitcoin, even though buying on dips can be a decently good supplemental strategy... yet the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to buy some... so if they are waiting for a dip and they don't have any BTC then they are preparing for ONLY one direction, which seems quite dumb, unless they happen to be some kind market (or bitcoin) expert, but if they were either a bitcoin or a market expert, they would have had already bought BTC, so still what good does it do to wait, unless you really are not serious about actually investing for the long term, such as for 4-10 years or longer.

Shitcoins are a distraction, but yeah, we cannot stop people from getting distracted and/or wanting to show that they are smarter, even though they may well end up being dumber if they get sucked into that nonsense - even though many of the shitcoin's spend quite a bit of time marketing to attract money into them.


Right away tends to be the right time to start, so we cannot know if the BTC price is going to go up or down from here, yet there are ways to try to prepare for either direction, including DCA amongst the better of the tactics, but sometimes, if someone has a lump sum that they could invest they might start out with putting in a lump sum and then having some plan regarding supplementing with DCA and/or buying on dips... until they get to an accumulation position that they would like to reach.


There could be a variety of situations including mistakes along the way too.  But there also could be just general ongoing accumulation up until a point in which they might start to feel that they have enough..  but yeah over the years, some people will screw up their accumulation  and/or their holding through various periods or they might start to cash out too much too soon.  So there can be quite a few ways that guys can make mistakes, especially over a period of 11 years or so.

Sometimes they can make up for mistakes that they made by starting to employ more prudent tactics, and other times they keep making the same or similar mistakes over and over and over, even if they might be asserting that they are learning and/or improving their strategies, which may or may not end up outperforming a more straight-forward and/or modest DCA approach. 

In other words, many times a relatively modest DCA approach will outperform a lot of other methods that try to time the market, and sure I have no problem with front loading of a DCA approach or even supplementing DCA with buying on dips and/or lump sum investing, but many folks will do better with starting out with DCA because they might not have any extra cash that they can hold aside for buying on dips or extra cash that they are able to front-load their investment with lump sum investing.

And am pretty sure your recommendation of investing in bitcoin to others have changed alot of people lives that took action in investing in bitcoin. You're right that investing in bitcoin or other investment is ones choice, but there are some sets of People. They are some set of people who want to invest but no good guidance to lead them, while there are some who are also ready to invest but couldn't due to their financial capability,  they are some set that have the chance and the financial capability to invest but they keep procastinating, and they are also some that have the chances to invest in Bitcoin but they keep waiting for a certain deep (like from it recent price to $10k ) in market (guess they would wait till they get tired of waiting), while they are some with good guidance in investing in bitcoin not in some random shit coin and they have already started their accumulation journey (like most new users in this forum).

While those that are ready to take a stand to change their financial status, this is the right time to start. By starting your bitcoin accummulation journey, today I was bored so I decided to start calculating profit made by those that started their bitcoin accummulation around 2013 and was  able to accumulate like $500 worth of bitcoin, and hold till now . When I calculated the profit it was extraordinary, now imagine those that keep using DCA to accumulate more bitcoin from that time till now just imagine the profit they have made in just investing in bitcoin.

I don't have any problem with the idea in regards to talking about the advantages and disadvantages of holding and/or ways to potentially game the profitability of up and down BTC price moves - especially since the topic does have potential for exploring those kinds of angles.  Accordingly, I had not criticized your post for being off topic, but instead attempted to criticize your seeming presumption that trading in and out of positions would automatically be advantageous even if dollar profits might be assessed to have had taken place. 


Of course, if you do not have any other income and you are striving to get income from trading, then you might be in a bit of a pickle in terms of how to invest and/or set aside value in such a way that you are able to profit from the investment (in this case bitcoin) as an investment and also to be able to get the compounding value out of it that tends to come from abilities to hold it in the longer term rather than short term scalping of dollar value.



Of course, if someone does not have any other source of income, they have to generate income in some kind of way, and if their most profitable way to get income is by trading BTC and/or other kinds of trading, then that would be their circumstances and they still might need to assess the extent to which they are advantaging trading bitcoin as compared with other less pristine assets that they might trade.

I am not even proclaiming that anyone is able to invest into bitcoin or anything else unless they have some level of discretionary/disposable income.  So if someone does not have discretionary/disposable income, then they are not in a position to invest.  By the way, discretionary/disposable income is the extra income that is available after expenses are paid, so in other words, people who do not have discretionary/disposable income are not in a position to invest, and if those people are buying and selling bitcoin then they are gambling, trading and/or generating income and they are not investing... so investing still could come if they ended up generating more income than their expenses, so then if they have extra income that would be discretionary/disposable income that they could invest and/or use for extra consumption purposes

It would be their choice whether to invest with their extra income.. and part of the dilemma for the trader/gambler/someone generating income from trading is that they will frequently be tempted to use their extra income for trading purposes rather than investing with that extra income.. which could come back to bite them in the ass several years down the road when they might end up not having shit to show for all of the income that they generated through the years, but did not invest any of it but instead just traded with any extra income that passed through their hands.


I did not say anything is wrong for me.  I was attempting to describe the historical power of bitcoin as an investment and the likely continued ongoing power of bitcoin as an investment, and in the end, guys can do whatever they like, even though they might end up shooting themselves in the foot if they presume that there is value to take profits in dollars. 

Of course, as you mentioned, profits could also be taken in bitcoin, but if they put that bitcoin capital back to work and they are trading with it rather than setting it aside, then it would be much more difficult to consider any aspect of their bitcoin approach as an investment, unless they were to have some kind of system in which they are building their bitcoin in a way that does not unnecessarily put it at the extra risks of trading with it.   

One of the errors that people sometimes make, even with bitcoin, is that they wrongly conclude that there is some kind of need to earn yield or to generate profits on their BTC, which surely could end up being problematic if the bitcoin have to be stored or held by others in order to generate such yield, and if we assess bitcoin as an investment, it is already designed to pump forever in terms of its sound money attributes, and so there is no need to put your bitcoin at extra risk in order to be able to be advantaged from its sound money attributes that are more and more likely to pay off the longer that the bitcoin is held...   

In recent years, I have become increasingly bothered by attempts to evaluate bitcoin value based on spot price, even though spot price is relevant for any time that a person is going to buy or sell bitcoin - so I have tended to gravitate towards the 200-WMA as a great tool for evaluating bitcoin value - and especially becomes more and more useful for guys holding their coins for more than 4 years, and maybe even better if they are using such valuation mechanism when they are holding their BTC 4-10 years or longer.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not trying to totally poo-poo the idea of earning income from trading, because there surely may be places in which a person is able to earn more from trading rather than from doing regular work that is available in the area or available based on the persons skills and/or job experiences - even though skills and job experiences can be built up in order to increase income.  So there are trade-offs to any profession and/or how one chooses to spend time to generate income.  At the same time, I can appreciate that there can be difficulties for anyone to engage in investment practices, whether he has a separate job from trading or if his primary (or only) source of income is from trading. 

So there can be a lot of discretion regarding how much to set aside from income for investing, and through most of my life I had been saving and/or investing 10% of my income, and in my earliest years, the 10% was not very much, and there were quite a few struggles with that including figuring out where to put it, but it still can add up over the years.  I also know from my own experiences, that an overwhelming number of people are not ready, willing and/or able to even set aside 10% of their income for savings/investing.  You are not necessarily free from those kinds of considerations merely because your income source comes from trading, but I can see how a trader might have difficulties setting aside separate "don't touch" funds because there can be some value in terms of generating enough working capital in order to increase the size of his trades with the passage of time, but he still may well need to be setting some of his generated funds aside into some kind of classification of "don't touch" funds which would be considered long term investment/savings, even if he might have other funds that are his "working capital."



In the case of bitcoin, it is not really compound interest, but instead compounding value, but it is a similar idea. One of the problems with compound interest is that someone would need to pay you for that, and bitcoin is already designed in such a way that there is no need to take the extra risk for any kind of interest that you might gain from turning your bitcoin over to a third party.  ON the other hand, if there are ways to earn interest on BTC without extra counter-party risk (or only minimal counter-party risk) then that might be acceptable in some circumstances, but in bitcoin's base investing case, it is not necessary to earn interest and/or yield from it, since bitcoin is already designed to pump forever (or increase in value forever if you prefer a more neutral way of saying it).


Of course if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then it may well be problematic to call that investing.  Of course, as an individual you can do whatever you like in terms of assessing risk and market price movements in shorter time periods, but that may well be considered as trading or gambling rather than investing, and likely in need of position size reduction in order to account for the additional risk that comes from shorter term plays.   In then end people can do whatever they like, but from my perspective it is problematic to call less than 4 year stents in bitcoin as investments, so there could be some quibbling going on here in terms of what to call it.. or how to play such short-term stents in bitcoin, if any one chooses to allocate value into bitcoin for shorter than 4-year timelines.


This is sounding a bit like a quibble over semantics, if you want to proclaim that some forms of trading still should be considered as "investments," which might not be totally wrong, even though for me it seems to mish-mash the concepts if you cannot attempt to figure out some kind of way to differentiate trading/gambling from investing... and don't get me wrong, I do agree that there are some guys who are able to structure their trades in such a way that they are never going to lose, but that is not the case for typical normal people.  Learning how to make trades profitable under all conditions is a learned skill, and some guys are better at it than others.  Investing tends to take a lot fewer skills, especially in the realm of mostly honing personal financial management skills in order to accurately calculate discretionary/disposable income and to invest within the parameters of such discretionary/disposable income which likely also includes figuring out ways to maintain and/or manage emergency funds, reserve funds and monthly cash floats. 

So yeah, I mentioned that I consider bitcoin to have a 4-10 year or more investment timeline, which is also supported by the information contained in the OP of this thread.  Of course there are other places to hold money that might have shorter-timelines and/or more guarantees not to lose money, so yeah people do need to account for their timelines in terms of where to keep their value or even how aggressive they might be in their employment of various investment approaches.


That sounds correct, yet maybe I would probably phrase it a bit differently, which might be something like the deferral of gratification today in order to have the potential of having more options in the future, whether that is for oneself or for passing to heirs.  At the same time, there are going to be balances between how much to spend/consume today versus how much to save/invest, and of course, there likely would be preferences that the savings/investments at least hold current purchasing power and potentially increase in purchasing power, while at the same time there is continuous uncertainties in terms of how to save/invest in order to not lose future purchasing power... which get's us back to the idea regarding why bitcoin is likely to serve a large role in terms of the allocation of savings/investments,

and perhaps part of the reason why between 2014 and 2020 I moved from recommending to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) 1% to 10% in bitcoin (and during that period I would frequently suggest to just get off zero), and then from 2020 to 2023, I started to recommend 1% to 25% in bitcoin , and in 2024 I started recommending 5% to 25% in bitcoin.   Of course, people are responsible for their own choices, and they are free to allocate however, they like, and it is their choice whether to follow any suggestion from some lame rando on the interwebs, because in the end, I am not taking any responsibility for their choices to invest in bitcoin or not to invest in bitcoin or whether to trade or gamble with their bitcoin, that is on each of us to figure out what we are going to do and how we are going to spend our time, energies and value.


I still suggest that it could take 15 to 20 years for any newbie bitcoin investor to get to the point in which he is able to live off of his bitcoin without having to do outside work.  Of course, if someone comes to bitcoin after already invested in other areas, then it could be possible to cut the timeline down, including if he is close to fuck you status with whatever funds that he is reallocating into bitcoin.

If you think about it, even if a person invests 10% of his income into bitcoin, it is going to take 10 years just to have 1 year of income invested into bitcoin, and so then if his income is able to grow to entry-level fuck you status (which tends to be 20 to 30 years of income), then the ONLY ways to grow faster is that the investment must grow a lot or maybe the amount invested would have to be greater than 10%, and guys can figure out these kinds of allocation matters and also how aggressive that they are able to be in terms of investing into bitcoin and getting their bitcoin portfolio to a sufficiently large enough size in order to start to either live off of it or to have their bitcoin supplement their current income. See my post on sustainable withdrawal and perhaps other parts of that thread for the discussion of such sustainable withdrawal ideas.

They are been on those thinking that bitcoin is a pump and dump for them that's why usually what they think is they dump all the bitcoins they have once they are in profit and although this is much better but they can't maximize the bitcoin potential since for sure for holding it for more years then there's a high chance that they can get a lot of profit since bitcoins future is so promising. Although we can't deny that temptation is around but if we are truly aiming for long term we can surely figure out what's more best and other important things to do.

But if they really want to get some funds then I guess they can sell some of their profit and leave the whole large balance still at stake so that it cannot hurt so much their whole investment.

Holding or trading just like we do is working to make money and it has never been considered easy. Our lives are already difficult and will become even more difficult when we engage in risky ways of making money. But even though holding bitcoin will be more difficult than daily manual work, but if we are ready to face it and we can overcome it all. We will also receive more worthy rewards. Therefore, I think we should stop complaining once we accept to participate in the game, and if you are afraid that you cannot do it and it is too difficult for you, then it is best for you to leave the market.

Well bitcoin trading may be source of income or profit for them. But if you take a close look at those who keep on trading for long , they end up getting peanuts because they don't know the power of HODLing. In HODL, the capital and the profit keeps on compounding and makes your investment hold stronger. In trading let's take for example you invested $100 and it rises by %4 and you made a profit of $4 you sell and used it for feeding everyday, you may not understand the power of HODLing because you haven't left it to compound from $100 to $104 to $110 or more as it keeps increasing you may be surprised after some month of opening you portfolio and see that you have made a hooping some of money multiply by how many years you have HODl. So every body might not be thesame but in this HODL vs TRADING can never be compared. Bitcoin HODLing is a choice and when someone is advised about HODLing don't see it as a wrong impression or a by force but he is just trying to let you know the difference between each of them, the important and the risk involved in each of them. No matter what HODLing is the best option that is the only way to win the race of Bitcoin. If those earlier adopters where trading Bitcoin till today, they will have lost hope on Bitcoin because they wouldn't notice the movement because they will have been selling the profit, making it look as if Bitcoin is not growing. Because the capital will remain thesame after selling the profit while btc price is changing on a regular.

They should. But they should know that to make more profit requires long term not just a short term. If they will do trading it should be that they have a seperate portfolio where they might have kept btc for long term and use the other CEX for trading if they chose to do trading for there feeding. Moreover for me I don't see bitcoin trading as business.