Topic: How many bitcoins do I need to retire in 20 years? - page 92. (Read 320337 times)

How much do you think bitcoin will be worth in 2030?
I'm always wondering this since you don't need to be a millionaire to retire

that satoshi prediction started in 2010, so 6 years already passed, it's 14 years remaining at this point, not 20 anymore, the final target is 2030

and anyway i doubt 1-2 btc will suffice for a retirement

For a responsible retirement, you should avoid any excessive confidence in a single investment option, it would be wiser to diversify your money in lower-risk investments and only deposit a little proportion in more volatile instruments like bitcoin. In this case, I only would keep ten bitcoins to complement my retirement in 20 years.

Wrong. in 20 years, bitcoin's value will either be high (say $50,000+) or very low (say under $100).

In either case, you won't need 100 bitcoins because it'll either be not nearly enough, or you will need much less.

Thats not enough. It depends on requirement. For sure you have 20years more. So that can have a try to get 5bitcoins every year which will count to some 100bitcoins which is more or less enough based on your necessity.

Depending on BTC price in 20 years (which is almost impossible to predict) plus where you live (the place where you are currently living greatly affect the amount of money you need, if it's a 1st world country then around $1 million dollars would be enough for a good retirement funding, but in a 3rd world country, $100,000 might be enough).

I think it is too little for the next 20 years,
we need many bitcoin so that we can relax when they retire later,
approximately it took me about 10 BTC

1 to 2 Bitcoins seems like it won't be nearly enough. I'm sure that although the price will be way higher, it won't be enough such that you would be able to retire with it. I mean, think about how much you would want to retire with currently - all your expenses and having fun, costs like that, and then divide that by 2. I don't really think a few bitcoins would rise to that price, but who knows?

Dude you realy think it will be enough i mean i want to have at least 20 just to be sure

in 20 years 1-2 BTC will be enough to retire on.

well you said it right no one can predict what will it be and how it will be in 20 years
i sure can i would like to have as much as possible, as many here

You're the one that's "high". Go read my comment above, and see how freaking silly you are.

I think he/she is assuming bitcoin will reach $1M each in 10 years But seriously that won't be enough. Even for me , as a person living on a poor country, 5-10 BTC (even @ $1k each) it's not enough to live elegantly despite of the low cost of living here. I must say 100 BTC would be enough.

Live a luxurious life on 5-10 btc? Are you high? My guess is that you only have between 0-2btc and are wishful thinking. People will not retiring on that amount of coin within that time frame and to answer the OP I would not like guess, first world country I would like to have between 1000 and 2500 to live without debt. Third world around 500+ Bitcoin,

But if you wait for 10 years, you will have more profit if the price of bitcoin rises further.

In the Western Europe or the US, you need $1m to live comfortably and your annual income is over $60k. So you need at least 200 bitcoins.

agree, if you have some bitcoin, maybe 5:10 bitcoin, you can reap the profit, in a few years later. do not have to wait 10 years
more bitcoin = more profit

The amount of idiocy in this thread is just appalling. You guys are chasing away the otherwise normal (I'm not even hoping for intelligent!) people from an otherwise interesting topic, so please, stop this non-sense, and use your brain, people!


Anyone who is "hoping" that bitcoin will go to $1000-2000 in 20 years is just... seriously.

Ask any bitcoin expert, and they will tell you without exception that bitcoin is HIGH RISK. It is an "experiment", as some would call it, and can fail. Again, it is HIGH RISK!!!!!!!

So what does that mean? Well, in order for something HIGH RISK to be LUCRATIVE, it must also have something else. Can you guess what that is? No? Well, let me tell you.

IN ORDER FOR SOMETHING HIGH RISK TO BE LUCRATIVE, IT MUST HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGH RETURNS.

No sane person would choose a high risk option if the potential returns are less than a low risk option.

Bitcoin is currently ~$400. Going to $1000 means a 2.5x increase. $2000 is 5x, and $5000 is 12.5x.

So what kind of returns can you get from other options? Let's look at some slightly higher risk companies, companies in the tech sector. OBVIOUSLY these companies are still MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH lower risk than bitcoin. It would be like gambling $20 at normal roulettes vs playing Russian roulette.

Let's look at Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alibaba. Some of these companies haven't even been around for 20 years, so Let's look at 10 years instead.

In the 20 years from January 1996 to jan 2016,

Apple went up ~100 times.
Microsoft went up ~10 times


From Jan 2006 to jan 2016,

Amazon went up ~13 times


It's hard to tell how much alibaba went up since they haven't been public for that long, but I know that Masayoshi Son's investment in 2000 yielded him more than 1500 times his initial investment.

These are just NORMAL tech companies, again, MUCH LESS RISKY than bitcoin. Yet even Microsoft went up 10 times in 20 years. But at that point microsoft is already a huge, established company without as high a potential. If we look at Microsoft from 1990 to the end of 1999, in that 10 years, Microsoft went up ~100 times.

Even absolutely normal and virtually risk-free companies like Johnson and Johnson, Coca cola, and many, many others rountinely make a much greater return than a mere 2.5x in TWENTY FREAKING YEARS.

You're probably not even beating inflation with a mere 2.5x return in 20 years!!!!!!!


SO WHY IN THE WORLD, WOULD YOU WANT TO INVEST IN BITCOIN, IF YOU THINK THAT ITS POTENTIAL RETURN IS THAT LOW? Its absolutely idiotic, considering just how risky bitcoin is. If you're going for a 2.5x return in 20 years, just deposit your money in your Savings account. Seriously.

If bitcoin's price is a few thousand dollars in 20 years, that would mean that it has failed. Period. In which case, it would actually probably be lower than a few thousand. So in reality, the chances of bitcoin being worth x thousand in 20 years is quite small, basically non-existent.

And yet some of you go like "stop dreaming for $10,000 bitcoins and be more realistic". HA! Even if bitcoin was $10,000 each in 20 years, that would still be a failure. It would certainly not have been a good investment, CONSIDERING HOW RISKY IT IS.

Seriously people, use your brain! If you think bitcoin will fail, that's totally alright. It's a completely valid opinion, since bitcoin IS high risk. But just picking some random number that's slightly higher than the current price, and thinking "it would be nice if we reached that" without considering the timeline or anything else is just... ugh! Makes me want to throw up.

It is always good to wait for sliw pruce change i hope that in 20 year or so we can live from 0.1 max a month

I think the price will rise in long term if it survived the test of time. In short term, the price can be up and down.