Topic: How many times we will make the same mistake? - History repeats Again & Again! (Read 1302 times)

This case happen from people didn't learn from history of bitcoin and still regretting about its potential that's why they always regret without doing any action.

And we can't expect anything from those guys since its like they hard to learn due to trust issue but if they could just learn how big the potential for bitcoin to grow then just see the history of it maybe there's some changes will happen on their decisions to invest on bitcoin.

They should now that bitcoin is slowly entering in the mainstream that's why its so good for them to trust it because if they didn't do anything and continue to afraid for sure in future they would provably regret again why they didn't buy bitcoin on past years where the price at nice figures for them to accumulate or start their investment.

No. There is no exception.  You cannot use past performance to figure out future performance.

However, you can assess the assets fundamentals based on past performance, and you can also assign probabilities to various future scenarios, and surely with bitcoin, any of us who are studying it and attempting to understand it, we should be recognizing and appreciating that BTC's network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer) are continuing to expand, which likely continues to strengthen bitcoin's investment thesis. 

My entry-level fuck you status chart shows the past performance of bitcoins 200-WMA and attempts to assign values to the future advancement of the 200-WMA (which is the bottom price), yet at the same time I am using diminishing returns, and the next time I update it in May, I am going to have to plug in more bullish numbers because I was overly conservative on this particular trend at least for this 6 month period and likely for the rest of this cycle, too, which seems to show that the 200-WMA will be moving up more than 25% (50% annualized) instead of 16% (32% annualized) for our current 6-month period.


Well yeah you seem to be describing both the value of networking effects contributing to exponential growth patterns that become even more dynamic, interesting and wide-spread when we are talking about value-laden information storage and transfer that is on the protocol level that is a paradigm shifting technology, which is likely to continue to contribute to ongoing exponential growth.  Which means that the sooner you are in, the better that you are likely to be, and even if you are a bitcoin doubter or a bitcoin naysayer, it is probably better to get some, just in case... because it may well not return back down to lower numbers from here and it might not even return back down to current numbers once it goes up more. 

So, having said all of that, none of it is guaranteed, even though we can become more informed about the asset from its past performance and understanding the what is going on in terms of the underlying asset, so if we put those ideas into a proper context we can better understand where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going forward, but we should not be merely predicting future performance based on past results - even though the past results help to inform us about the asset.


Even people who took whimpy investment stances have done quite well with their bitcoin investment as long as they mostly accumulated bitcoin and held it without selling it.

So yeah, you could be a skeptic about bitcoin and take a more whimpy investment, and you are likely going to be better off by getting off zero. .which is also what i had been saying since around 2014 with the suggestion for normie newbies to get at least 1% into bitcoin, even if they are skeptical of it.  Since 2024, I have upped my recommendation for normie newbies to start out with 5% to 25%, yet of course, they have to figure out the details, and sure just like in the past, it is still going to take a long time for normie newbies to get into bitcoin.  We are still early and the number of world wide adoption is quite small, even though there are some folks who are disproportionately gobbling up the supply, which is another reason why getting in early is likely better than waiting.

We are currently in very interesting times, and the next few months are going to continue to be interesting, and likely we are going to continue to have interesting times throughout 2024 and probably dragging into 2025 in terms of ongoing upward price pressures on bitcoin.  I have my doubts about those theories that suggest that we will get through a whole cycle by this year, and it is more likely that it is going to take all of this year and at least most of 2025 to play out, while at the same time bitcoin can always have surprises, both to the upside and to the downside, even if we might keep the 4-year fractal in mind in terms of a a base case scenario of what we expect, we still cannot feel any kind of guarantee that the base case (or the 4-year fractal) is going to hold, and we are going to be in a way better position after we have passed through it to see how well it has compared to previous 4-year fractals.. while at the same time, some people may well say I told you so in regards to the matching of the pattern, and I have no problem with that, even though each of us should be attempting to prepare to stay in the game rather than expecting that we know for sure what is going to happen, so we have to be prepared for extremes in either direction that may or may not end up breaking prior patterns.

I like to think that bitcoin's an exception to that rule, 3 is sure still a coincidence in my book but knowing the popularity of bitcoin and the faith of many investors about it's growth and their devotion to it grows daily, I don't think that bitcoin will ever disappoint, it might take a long time before it will go up again once it has gone down but it will always surprise us when this happens, bitcoin's not any kind of altcoin out there that once it shows it's blaze of glory, it's all downhill from there, bitcoin doesn't really have to prove anything at this point, institutional investors are recognizing it as a legitimate investment tool even though it's still as volatile as ever. It's really weird to me that people are still on the fence when it comes to bitcoin investing, if you really want to invest in it, you probably have a really good benefit if you stop thinking and doubting and just start accumulating through DCA no matter what happens to the market.

You are not necessarily risk taking for buying bitcoin. You are likely taking as much risk if you decide not to buy bitcoin, even though not buying bitcoin is the default move.  Yeah, it can take a bit of time to actually figure out how to source your bitcoin and/or to get bitcoin price exposure... So then maybe getting price exposure is one level, and then taking bitcoin into self-custody is another level. there can be some learning involved in any of these matters, which might seem like risks when you are learning about something new and even investing might be new to someone who had not been previously investing, or maybe they are able to invest through their work 401k.. but not very many normies even have those kinds of retirement investment plans that they are able to invest into.  So if they have never invested, then they have to figure it out. which might seem risky, even though it might be practical, since not investing tends to result in depreciation and devaluation of your purchasing power, so those who are not investing, might well be in a worse (and/or riskier) position than those who are figuring out ways to invest.


People are figuring out bitcoin to be a good place to allocate value, but they still have to figure out how to do it and maybe how to do it in a way that is reasonable to their own situation... but yeah, we are still early, even though more and more people are learning about bitcoin and even coming to realize that it is better than they act, rather than failing to act, when it comes to getting bitcoin exposure and/or even self-custody of it as a possible next step.

I guess the mate is referring to Bitcoin scarcity and limited supply plus it current values and coverage in the market,  of course between bitcoin, real estate and Gold, I will definitely give Bitcoin a higher percentage as an investment and my reasons are that Bitcoin offers me alot of advantages as an investment more than the other two, just like as gold can be faked, and real estate needs alot of maintenance and taxes that suck off almost all the gains, Bitcoin, on the other hand, have none of that, and that makes it truly an edge over inflation.

Secondly, Bitcoin investment doesn't attract any form of tax unless in countries where there is high Bitcoin regulation,  but in a lot of other country ine can hold Bitcoin without being taxed or cost of maintenance just like another investment choice,  and for that, u may likely give Bitcoin my 50% accumulation target if I have the needed cashflow, because the higher the speed in accumulation of bitcoin, the better and faster way to be in profits on the long run.

No doubt that real estate is a good investment but still can't compare it to bitcoin,  starting your real estate investment with the amount as little as $10 won't be enough to generate substantial income , while bitcoin as given privilege to those that are not too financially stable to accumulate bitcoin with as little as $10 (using the DCAing strategy ) . And as time goes on with a proper and frequent DCAing one can actually build a good and portfolio in bitcoin that would yield them good profit.
yeah you are right that the past performance does not guarantee the future and all that, but still during those past years bitcoin didn't have the adoption he had now but still, bitcoin  kept increasing tremendously and as time goes on bitcoin would keep on getting the adoption it deserves. And at that time being a no or low coiner would only lead you to a  point where you gonna be saying this shitty statement "had I known". Because that what alot of individuals that had the opportunity to buy bitcoin when the price was still low are and they didn't are saying now. While some that hold back then till now are damn proud of themselves for the action they took back then , In investing in bitcoin.

 

Each person or investor has been determined or outlined with their own skills and abilities as well as their own habits in the field or what they invest in. They already know the risks and have also done research or analysis of what is happening, but they still persist according to what they believe. Because in all forms of investment there must be people who are experts or accustomed to being involved in it, and the same as those or crypto or Bitcoin investors.
They are not wrong because that is their path and expertise in their field and also it is everyone's right and whether it is profitable or not profitable is a risk in any investment and it is not always like that because of the turning of the wheel, and those who switch to Bitcoin because they know the potential of Bitcoin in terms of profits, especially in the long term. And it doesn't mean they forget about previous investments, they are sometimes smarter in utilizing or utilizing Bitcoin to build on previous investments.
Because Bitcoin is the best solution in any case, And I have several friends who are used to it or have been doing it for a long time who have invested in gold and also real estate. They do both and leave behind no prior expertise or knowledge in the field, and Bitcoin is a promising investment alternative for all different groups and professions to grow their businesses or make other things happen.

That is why a lot of people regret from not buying Bitcoin earlier because of that assumption. Although we can't assure that what happens today can be the same in the future, that is faith and trust. Risk-takers don't choose to be safe but rather prefer to take more but look, these people are earning more compared to those who invest in nothing.

Some people sell their gold for Bitcoin.
Some people sell their valuable properties for Bitcoin including land.
There is only one reason of these things --Bitcoin is the majority choice by most because of its growing price trend.

Perhaps every individual has the right to make his or her choice but i would prefer people who are becoming enlighten in Bitcoin to embrace the opportunity that a paradigm (Bitcoin ) has offered them than to remain a crack head believing whatsoever seems right in there eyes.

With the current and past even that has happen in Bitcoin one should know and understand that Bitcoin is ever going to perform its best in every circle. But if one is personally convinced to remain a no coiner then, he or she should probably be prepared to accept its consequences because I wouldn't like to get a regret news at some point.

You are correct that past performance does not guarantee future results, yet you still have to decide how you are going to allocate any investment that you are going to make, including if you happen to be a no coiner and you decide to stay a no coiner. that is a decision, and so good  luck if you choose to stay on zero when it comes to bitcoin when the most likely better conclusion would be to figure out what your target accumulation level should be, perhaps somewhere between 5% and 25% would be a good start, but hey if you prefer to stay on zero, that's surely your right to make that decision for yourself and your own financial circumstances.

Gold has the lowest amount possible out of all three in your comparison but easy to fake.
Real Estate has the highest amount possible out of all three and will always grow with a steady growth, someone always wants to buy and its getting fewer and fewer.
Bitcoin has the medium amount possible out of all three but you can't and assume the next 15 yrs growth because of the last 15 yrs.

Thanks so much for your 💯 correction and the insights which you have made me to have about bitcoin I appreciate that's the more  reason why I am here obviously to learn everyday as you can see I am a newbies I need more lessons even to say that I am teaching myself everyday on bitcoin thanks again for making me to have an adjustment based on my reasoning that real estate is very much left behind when bitcoin is mentioned thanks alot

You do not seem to even understand what you are talking about including the definition of risk or how risk can be mitigated through position size and practices like that.

For a lot of reasons, "property" or "real estate" is not an obviously better investment than bitcoin.  So get the fuck out of here with your supposed insightful assessment that property is obviously better based on an assumption that property is lower risk than bitcoin blah blah blah... that is almost pure bullshit, especially if you actually try to understand the costs and benefits of the assets that you are supposedly trying to assess.

Another thing, can you buy $10 of real estate at a time and spread out your purchasing over 20 years (let's say on average on weekly basis or some other convenient and perhaps randomly self-directed timeline) , so maybe after 20 years maybe you end up investing little by little $10k into it? 

There are advantages to the portability and flexibility of bitcoin, including the possibility for a lack of any encumbrances, depending on how you source your purchases of BTC.

Sure, you can live in your real estate, and therefore save on rent, so you can make those kinds of comparisons in terms of whether it is better to rent or to buy, that is if you can even figure out how to afford a down payment, in the even that you might ONLY have $10 extra per week that you are able to use for any investment, so you might not even be close to being in a position to get into any property purchasing arrangement.

And even if you might happen to have $10k that you can use to purchase property or put a down payment or to get into some kind of a financial arrangement so that you are able to accomplish that, it surely is not without costs to have to commit so much to your supposed "investment" in a lump sum..   

I don't have any problem with the idea of lump sum investment or lump sum committing to some kind of an investment, yet it is still not obvious that property gives you enough flexibility in terms of how to employ your lump sum funds.

I could go on about the various costs of property, and whether those are boiled down to investment costs or consumption costs, the punchline remains the same in regards to the non-obvious conclusion in regards to property being superior place to put your value as compared with bitcoin... and surely it could be the case that anyone who is struggling with cashflow would be way the fuck better off delaying their purchase of property 4-10 years or longer while they invest in bitcoin and let their bitcoin investment ride and perhaps also to rent rather than to  buy whatever their property arrangements might be, that is if they have a choice.  Sure some folks do not have a choice because their family might be forcing them into the purchase of property so that the family has a place to live or that they can keep the property that they have already committed to, but that still does not mean it is a better place to put your value, even if you might already have high switching costs to get out of your situation and maybe you are not able to buy bitcoin based on those arrangements to keep property that is already in the family.


Of course, you are free to do whatever you want and to think whatever you want, but don't come out trying to proclaim that you are more reasonable than others merely because you fail/refuse to recognize and/or appreciate the value of bitcoin as a long term investment.  From my perspective, it sounds as if either you are not being genuine in what you are saying or you do not understand bitcoin as much as you are seeming to try to show yourself as a supposed thoughtful person.


You are patronizing. As if you even know what is the meaning of "investing wisely."  I have my doubts.

To the extent that you are being genuine with us, you might have come to some conclusions regarding what you plan to do (which is invest in real estate and being a short term investor or trader in bitcoin), but it is not even close to a reasonable and/or wise approach, since you don't even seem to understand bitcoin, even while you are spouting out as if you have come to a conclusion about some supposed wiser and superior approach to the matter of how you are planning to (or perhaps already are) allocate to property versus bitcoin.

Don't get me wrong.  Property has it's place, and there may well be some folks who are better off to get involved in property based on their already involvement in it, but it surely is not an obvious choice for people who did not yet make various commitments to property or maybe they already have a lot of sunk value into properties that are likely not even close to as "profitable" as you are proclaiming them to be, especially if you compare to bitcoin over a 4-10 year period or longer.   

Apparently bitcoin is a very nice coin to invest in though it has a high risk to take and bear also it has a high chances of you making a huge profit but as for long term investment personally I don't think I support such risk because anything very funny and sad at the same time can happenee along the line without you holding anyone responsible instead you will bear it till the end of it.....

Nevertheless, Real Estate is the one of the investment I can advice investors to move in because there's no high risk behind doing a real estate business hence your documents are all intact and properly done with you. Real estate still remains the best long term investment business that will pay you off in the future with out any high risk of losing your investment and moreover it can physical investment or online real estate investment but yet it low risk.....

I am not trying to contradict things but i am only been reasonable in as much as I campaign for bitcoin and I have some investment in bitcoin but I will not assertain it to be a long term investment I will only do a short term investment in bitcoin investment because this is a cryptocurrencies which all ours are not certain about.....

So let investment wisely be it long or short term investment....

Thanks 🙏👍

Everyone certainly hopes that the investments they make over a long period of time will give them profits from the investments they make and investing in real estate is a good choice if they have large funds to buy it, but if we choose to invest in Bitcoin we can do it by some of the savings that we have and hold for a long period of time for the profits we want, those who understand the risks they will face will certainly never be afraid of risks because they can face them with the profits they will get.

For some people who have low incomes, of course they will choose to invest in Bitcoin because if they are thinking about real estate, of course they have to save longer before they can afford to buy it, but not with Bitcoin, they can buy it according to their means.

In follow-up to my earlier post. I don't claim to be any kind of gold follower, but here is a better chart that compares bitcoin and gold with the grey line showing the grams of gold per bitcoin (currently at 863.24), and the yellow line show the ounces of gold per bitcoin (currently at 30.45).

https://charts.bitbo.io/btc-gold/

bitcoin will continue to move and its price and the transaction fee will continue to change provided as the price of Bitcoin is going up year by year it is obvious that the transaction fee will it be changing so let us not be afraid of Bitcoin getting to zero any day anytime or bitcoin value lost it value any day or anytime because Bitcoin has turned to the world currency whereby most of the prominent countries most about bitcoin and they are all trading with bitcoin right now so the value will continue to be recognized or be valid until another technology that is higher than Bitcoin is being introduced and have more influence than Bitcoin

If we consider the long-term assurance when choosing an investment, we could say that real estate is the best choice. However, because investing in Bitcoin is somewhat more profitable at this time, many people have chosen this. Risk-takers will never think about the risks but weigh much on their profit potential to earn. In fact, even low earners have their interest and courage in Bitcoin because they believe that this will help them improve their living status as they could still invest in small amounts rather than saving a lot of money for real estate plans.

well, with this, I think the people who say that bitcoin is a bad investment are wrong. however, this is simply how we hold the assets we own over the long term. However, if we compare gold, real estate, and bitcoin, then we not only look at the benefits, but also at the risks.
Even though the potential profits that can be obtained from bitcoin are very high within 10 years, we also need to think about the risks. We won't know what our investments will be in 10 years' time. However, for gold and real estate, the potential for us to lose a large amount of value is very small, especially if we have real estate that is in a very good position. Sometimes, people prefer investments that have little risk because they don't want to think about it so much, and on the other hand, people are willing to take risks for the potential for large profits. Bitcoin is a very good investment that can even provide far more profits than gold and real estate, but the risks are also quite large, so we need to use money that we are willing to lose to invest in bitcoin.

Mate younger person's are entering everyday and there is every possibility that this thread would still be alive by that time, bitcoin enthusiast pop out in every generation.

Im think that the block reward would not hit zero cause bitcoin also have smaller units called Satoshis, and if the block reward were to split from 1 bitcoin, it would split to 50 million Satoshis since 100 Satoshis makes one bitcoin, I might not be right but I think there is logic to what I am saying.