I think a reasonable approach to investing in Bitcoin lets say 1000 USD is :
The worst what can happen is that you lose the 1000 USD.
The best what can happen is that you make possibly 350 x profit = 350 000 USD
So maybe worth the risk to invest in Bitcoin...
Naah, it's not like that, Bitcoin still has super potential but the 350 figure on the current market valuation is not likely possible and it might not be possible even in the coming years as well. Having such expectations ahh is not likely a wise action.
TBH, on the current level
where the market is already mature to the $T market capital with the growth in the coming timeline and more maturity it will stabilize the fundamentals and volatility, it was reported many times that with more and more distribution of coins among the community it will make bitcoin more reliable and less volatile, because now the power is getting diversified so the centralized actions which were causing a volatility in market will come to an elimination now except for the Black Swan events and community fuds.
Of course one of bitcoin's advantages had been that it was a very new asset class and therefore a paradigm shifting technology, and so it is likely a bit unfair to measure bitcoin's performance to the other asset classes, especially starting bitcoin at less than a dollar or even if we might agree to start bitcoin at $5 in the beginning of 2012, that also might be a bit unfair, but at least we are starting from a positive value and bitcoin was still finding value and market price. So yeah, if we start from $5 then bitcoin has 10,000x returns from the beginning of 2012.
But OP mentioned 10 years, but bitcoin was in a bit of a bouncing around period 10 years ago, so it is not really very fair to measure from the bounding around areas... If we use the 2013 top then we get less than 40x, and if we use $1k as our starting off point, then we get 50x.. but then maybe if we consider BTC's correction period between $160 and $300 for most of 2015, and then that would be a lot of time spent around $250, so then that would end up being around a 200x price appreciation over 8.5 years.. which seems a much more fair starting point for bitcoin. but it still does not quite capture 10 years... and then when I go back and look at OPs numbers, he is picking the lowest correction point in 2014 and maybe that correction point of $160-ish was in January 2015.. . seems like he is just making shit up rather than attempting to be representative of more likely scenarios.. because no body bought bitcoin at the bottom.. it was a flash anyhow...so it would have been impossible to buy very much bitcoin at the exact peak of the bottom.
Even though bitcoin's upside potential has been dampened quite a bit from its beginning years, it is way from being a mature asset class, so bitcoin still likely has around 20,000x to increase in value, even though it could take 50 to 200 years to reach its fair value.
So how to go forward? Each of us has to decide, and yeah there are quite a few early adopters and even financial institutions and rich folks who starting to try to front load the investment and to front run the normies, while at the same time many of the longer term bitcoiners have already front run the BIGGER players.. and there probably is still a bit of time to continue to front run some of them, even though the news about bitcoin is getting spread more and more... but at the same time, everyone continues to both erroneously believe that they are too late and also to erroneously believe that bitcoin is a mature asset class... which it is far from mature.. but whatever, you don't have to believe me, you can either fail to invest in it or you can sell too much too soon because you misunderstand what bitcoin is and its ongoing upward potential.
Yes, even today we can project large returns with bitcoin, but it is somewhat a bad habit of the community to aim for a large multiplier. (hey, I love them too)
A gain of +5% is a good return, but the point is that new bitcoin "investors" want wealth, and they forget about adoption, hey!, board bitcoin discussion here, Right?, If you enter with the idea of adoption you will have no problems with a 5% profit.
Look at bitcoin's 200-WMA, and the lowest it has ever been is 20% per year... so yeah that is going to become less and less with the passage of time, but there is no real sign that bitcoin is diminishing as an asset class, and the 200-WMA is on track to finish this next six month anywhere between 32% and 44% annualized (measuring from the end of November 2023 to the end of May).. you can see on
my entry-level fuck you status chart..
Bitcoin was still on its infancy during that time and this comparison would certainly be in favor of Bitcoin. The traditional assets don't move like that as they're more established and there won't be that much fluctuation anymore except with the real estate. Going on with today's price of Bitcoin and going back to its after a decade, we may have a lesser gain but I think that Bitcoin is still going to be the winner by that time.
As time goes by for Bitcoin, the increase is decreasing and if you've noticed that. From all of the ATHs, you can count how many times it had grown from the former ATH that it has got. So, those that have got in too early like under 2014 were the luckiest but I don't think that many of them are still holding when you have made like 10x-20x, you'd probably sell and that's the main point why many have sold a lot in the past. But as about doing the same mistake again, I wouldn't make the same mistake as I did in the last bull run that even before it, I've sold terribly.
We can't judge people who sold early because we have our own needs. Lucky for you if you have other means to sustain your living. But if you are relying from the profits that you can make out of this market, the likelihood that you will sell of is always there. So it is not about your belief on this market but sometimes it is your financial capability to hold your assets.
Yeah, I am not judging them but I have my shortcomings as well. I've sold a lot during the early days and it's because of the life situation that I have to deal with and I have encountered. And that's why I understand those that have managed to sell too early. I was just saying that if ever there have been early adopters, many of them probably sold a lot and that's why kudos to those that have diamond hands. Even if they've sold handful of it, they're still holding a lot of it.
And from the market that goes on up to this point and with the upcoming years, they're already in profit no matter what happens to bitcoin because they've bought it at a very discounted price and that's the reward that they deserve for believing to Bitcoin at an early stage when majority of the people don't and haven't heard it yet back then.
Bitcoin should be considered a long term investment of 4-10 years or longer, and you shoudl not be fucking around with selling any of it, and if you are tempted to take profits, that likely means that you invested too much, and you have to make sure you have your financial shit together so that you don't have to sell any of your bitcoin until a time of your choosing and hopefully longer than a full cycle.. and yeah if you keep accumulating until you reach a point in which you have too many bitcoin, then you would be at liberty to either start selling some or maybe diversifying into other investments.. but you have to get to the point of over accumulation before you start to screw around with selling merely because you happen to be in profits. .and if you don't have enough BTC, then it is not going to do you a whole hell of a lot of good to sell some of them because you might not be able to buy them back for at the same price or cheaper.. so you have to be careful with those kinds of practices in regards to bitcoin, especially if you don't have enough.
I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?
Everyone knew that Bitcoin will reach 100k back in 2017, so of course they didn't sell at $20k and missed out on an opportunity to take huge profits and buy back at 15 times lower price in the bear market. Then in 2021 everyone knew it would reach $100k and the story repeated again with crash and a bear market.
You are right that in general the price will increase in this cycle, but no one has the slightest idea where the top will be, so waiting for some price level because some reach people predicted is will be very counter-productive for your investment.
Yeah, a lot of people sold in 2017 too on the way up in the $1k to $3k range and they were thinking that they would buy back lower.. which frequently does not work out too well. Each of us should be careful when we sell expecting to buy back cheaper and thinking that we are gong to know when to buy back and how much of a dip there is going to be or how long it is going to last.
It is probably not that smart to try to trade one of the best (if not the best) asset that has ever been invented (discovered), and while the greatest wealth transfer in history is in the process of going on and will likely continue for the next 50 years or more, it is probably better to be on the receiving side of that wealth transfer... that is transferring wealth from no coiners and low coiners to those who are accumulating and holding coin.
There will still be profit, of course, but we probably can't even grow x10 anymore.
Good luck with that. 10x is gold parrity, and bitcoin is likely around 1,000x better than gold. .. so I will agree that we might have some troubles getting between 50x and 1000x gold (or it might take some time to play out)... but getting to gold parity and then also 10x better than gold should not be too big of a deal.. even though it could take 2-3 cycles... perhaps? who knows how long it will end up taking.. . but gold parity within this cycle is within grasp, but surely it is not guaranteed to happen, but gold parity would not even be close to bitcoin's top.
remember another thing is that there are currently around $ 1 quadrillion in monetized assets that could be bitcoin's target market. Some people think that bitcoin's addressable market is higher than that, but I think that we would need to get a lot closer to that $1 quadrillion before starting to really consider how many multiples higher it would be able to go. (I am referring to today's dollars not dollar collapse scenarios, even though that will happen too.. even if it could take some time to happen).
I saw the price of Bitcoin at 4 digits way back in 2017-2018 and didn't invest at that time. Why? It's because I'm scared since I'm not that knowledgeable enough. Did I commit a mistake then? I would say no, but emotions got me at that time since I was a newbie.
Hopefully, you have fixed yourself since 2017-2018..
but like you said, history repeats, and also the same mistakes of individuals repeat, too. People continue to think bitcoin is mature, overpriced, a bubble, too late, and blah blah blah.. but it is not any of those this. and it still is not, but still people will continue to either not invest or to sell to early... and sucks to be them.. because bitcoin still has a long way to go, even though it could take a while to get there.
I have a slightly different opinion on real estate as it's not a guaranteed return as it depends on a lot of factors and I have seen some plots being idle from decades and useless so real estate is bit complicated one needs to do proper research before investing into it so 10x or 15x is not an easy feet to achieve. But agreed with gold as it has gained little over 2x in a decade. The problem lies with our mindset is that we expect quick profit or we are too carried away during the bear market we end up selling everything. I think we need to earn form mistake and give a chance to Bitcoin but the kind of prediction you have made about a whopping 8 digit seemed to be exaggerated for me but I may be wrong and short sighted.
Yes, its not really something that gives even that 10x 15x return as been mentioned. It might be able to have that some folds but wont really be that into these multipliers not unless if the lot or property did really
become in part of a very heavily development kind of location then it could be possible but if not then reaching out those numbers or multipliers is really that hard. This is why tons of investors did really go to crypto
because they could be able to get 10-100x easily but of course the risks involved isnt something that getting in line with those traditional investments that we do know.
If you do have the funds then you could really actually having those both options as long you could really be able to handle it out then there would really be no issues.
Missed out opportunities are common and this is why we do our very best on not to miss out the next one but due to some reasons then we do repeat
on the same mistakes all over again.
The more I look at what OP did and some of the responses, it seems more and more that OP was spinning, being selective and not very representative.
WE probably could assert some kind of general averages.
1) cash probably is worth about half as much as it was in 2014
2) gold .. we can give him 2x.. no problem. .but since cash debased by half, that seems like a wash at best.
3) equities may have doubled or tripled.. but that would mean that they were just keeping up with inflation, and even if we say that some equities did 4x, then they Only did 2x in real terms if we account for the debasement of cash during the same period.
4) property.. I am not going to agree to 10x to 15x, but maybe we could estimate that they might have done 2x better than equities... on average... and yeah, I am just guessing too..
5) Bitcoin.. I like my 200x number better than op's 350x number since there were a lot of chances to buy BTC in 2015 around $250..
We still get bitcoin beating everything else by magnitudes.. but sure there are going to be some outliers with properties and equities that might have come close to bitcoin's performance, but as a general proposition bitcoin bet everything else.. and bitcoin was generally open to everyone.. just that some folks might have had some difficulties with the technology and their local jurisdiction.. whether there were places to buy it (or people who would sell it for any normie who might have had wanted it.).
[edited out]
I believe that the price of Bitcoin will increase but reaching $100k - $150k remains uncertain. However, I will continue accumulating Bitcoin believing that I could make a profit even if it never grows that much because of the volatility of the market. Having time to buy during the market correction and sell during the pump is a usual activity in the market.
I was certain that there was no quitting in here now. Yes, I missed buying 10 years ago because of doubts but as I already understand and experience the benefits of Bitcoin, I don't think I have to miss it again.
Yep, and it sounds like you are going to sell too much too soon, but hey do what you like. If you believe $100k to $150k is enough for your cornz, then it's your choice. good luck with that. You will likely need it.
You know the interesting part of all of this? You’d make profit from all of them. Regarding Bitcoin, we know better now but looking back at 10 years ago, you never really knew what today would be if it’d be an abandoned idea or as huge as we’ve seen it. I’d say that if you have enough money (really wealthy), diversify your investments. Invest in all 3 of them after all, you’ll make profit from all.
If you account for the debasement of the dollar, you likely are not making money in all, especially in real terms rather than nominal terms.
Bitcoin has ongoing good chances to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and also to outperform the dollar's level of persistent, consistent and inevitably ongoing debasement. Good luck if you are investing in that other stuff.
It was still is a great example of an asymmetric risk / reward.
FTFYThe most you can lose is 100% of what you invested, as long as you are not so dumb as to use leverage, then you can lose more than 100%. Don't be dumb.. just invest regularly.. whle being as aggressive as you can but without devolving into gambling practices, such as using leverage... and such as not maintaining an adequate emergency fund of 3-6 months or more, reserves and float.
The future's a mystery, even for crypto. Bitcoin might moonwalk to Mars, or, you know, not. Past wins don't guarantee future trophies. Investing is all about taking calculated risks, but don't go YOLO like it's the last pizza slice. Research, understand Bitcoin's wild swings, and only invest what wouldn't make you cry if it vanished faster than a magician's rabbit. FOMO is real, but don't let it cloud your judgment.
Putting all your eggs in one basket, even a shiny Bitcoin basket, ain't the smartest move. Spread things out across different investments like stocks, bonds, maybe even a real estate taco stand – diversification is your friend. Regretting missed opportunities stings, but dwelling on it won't help. Learn from it, do your research, and make informed choices for the future. New opportunities pop up like mushrooms after a rain, so don't get stuck in the "what if" trap.
If someone only has $10 to $50 per week to diversify, it is kind of dumb to diversify.. .and maybe after a year or two of building their investment portfolio, then diversification might start to make sense. So start with bitcoin, and don't be diluting your investment, merely because people suggest it to be the right thing to do.. when it is not.. Once you get your bitcoin investment and your emergency fund up to around 6 months each, then maybe at that time you might start to consider some value in diversification, but even then it is not necessary until you start to feel over exposed in one asset, which could take several years before diversification starts to make sense.
But yeah if you don't know what you are investing in and you are afraid of bitcoin then maybe diversify and dilute your investment so much that you might not end up getting much benefit from anything that you are invested into... it is better to buy bitcoin and then learn about it as you go so you end up figuring out why it is not necessary to diversify until you get up to a certain size of a portfolio.. such as 6 months or more of your income/expenses..
Numbers don't lie indeed but this will depnd on your risk appetite as an investor. High risk means high rewards and this is the bottomline here. If you're an early investor of Bitcoin and you managed to hold it for years, or for this long, then for sure you are in huge profit. If you are after real estate investment, there are other ways to increase the projected profit. Perhaps having a condo unit and making it an Air BNB, which do you think will earn more? However capital would be bigger in this case but if it is consistency then this could be an option. With Gold, you could increase the value by physical reformation through accessories and such.
My point here is that you don't have to be one-sided with how you will make use of an investment. Either of these three would be a great choice however, investments aren't always a waiting game. If you're seeking for more then you simply have control of other aspects that could increase the gain you want to project. Again, risk appetite is the answer on which should you invest your money with, as well as your circumstances as an investor.
People who only have $10 to $50 per week are not going to be able to invest into real estate.
