How many times we will make the same mistake? - History repeats Again & Again! - page 5.

Zanab247

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Quote from: kryptqnick

Gold and Bitcoin are really solid to test the profits in hindsight because there are actual charts to rely on (gold is a little less reliable than Bitcoin in this regard because there can be different gold, but still). As for real estate, I don't think we can confidently say that a real estate investment would bring 10x-15x profit over 10 years because property can be very different, and local markets are also very different.
Bitcoin looks great, but those were the years of great opportunity. The op speculates that perhaps we'll see 346x profit over the next 10 years, but I really don't think anything close to it is going to happen because, as market capitalization grows, more and more is required to push the price up.

Well, I have never invested in gold before which I don't know the benefits or the rewards that attached to those that will hodl long or short for the right time to come before they can sell, but I'm used to BTC investment and I have invested little money in BTC ten years ago which am waiting for the price to reach my satisfaction before I can sell and it will increase my wealth.

I know that, there will be massive bull run in the future that will make the price of BTC to hit $80k which is the price investors are waiting to see in the market before they will be move to trade in the market.

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Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 01:25:43 AM

~snip~
Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

10 years ago Bitcoin was still something relatively new (although some say it still is today), and it really doesn't make much sense to compare gold and real estate with investing in Bitcoin in relation to that period. It is not only about trust, but also the fact that even today people prefer to invest in something tangible, rather than in something that the majority still do not understand and can hardly understand the virtual value of something like Bitcoin.

Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 01:25:43 AM

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

Regardless of the optimism that I personally have, I still do not think that someone who invests in Bitcoin today will in 10 years make the kind of profits that were made in the past. I expect that then the price will be in six digits, but I am not inclined to believe that it will be more than x10 compared to today's price. Of course, this is not a bad price - but in 10 years, $500k will have much less purchasing power than today.

kentrolla

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I have a slightly different opinion on real estate as it's not a guaranteed return as it depends on a lot of factors and I have seen some plots being idle from decades and useless so real estate is bit complicated one needs to do proper research before investing into it so 10x or 15x is not an easy feet to achieve. But agreed with gold as it has gained little over 2x in a decade. The problem lies with our mindset is that we expect quick profit or we are too carried away during the bear market we end up selling everything. I think we need to earn form mistake and give a chance to Bitcoin but the kind of prediction you have made about a whopping 8 digit seemed to be exaggerated for me but I may be wrong and short sighted.

kryptqnick

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Gold and Bitcoin are really solid to test the profits in hindsight because there are actual charts to rely on (gold is a little less reliable than Bitcoin in this regard because there can be different gold, but still). As for real estate, I don't think we can confidently say that a real estate investment would bring 10x-15x profit over 10 years because property can be very different, and local markets are also very different.
Bitcoin looks great, but those were the years of great opportunity. The op speculates that perhaps we'll see 346x profit over the next 10 years, but I really don't think anything close to it is going to happen because, as market capitalization grows, more and more is required to push the price up.

bakasabo

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Quote from: LesterD on February 21, 2024, 06:52:53 AM

Quote from: bakasabo on February 21, 2024, 05:45:16 AM

To see the clear picture and get helpful answers, I suggest to put on the other side a list of unsuccessful investments. OP has mentioned gold, bitcoin and property investments, showed how $1000 turned into hundred thousands. I havent googled much, but offhand I can name Twitter purchase. Suppose you have invested in Twitter. During two last years the value of your investment has decreased. Found list of unsuccessful investment. HP have bought Autonomy and face multimillion value loss of a company they have just purchased.

So OP, when asking why people make mistakes and did not invest on early stage, think about all the unsuccessful investments people made. Because I feel like ration of successful: unsuccessful early investments are greatly below 1.

Indeed, many investors are hesitant to invest until they see results, this might be due to their past experiences with unsuccessful investments. Only a few individuals are willing to take the risk, usually those who have the courage and were fortunate enough to invest early on.

It is not only about having fails with previous investments and experience, but OP ask why we wait and did not but early (and give some examples of successful investments), and completely forget about all those fails with 2017-2020 ICOs. Investing early in Bitcoin is just one example of success, but at least on this forum we can find thousand of ICOs that failed or became abandoned after soft cap being raised.

What is his call and idea? To look invest early ? Or to look for gems ? But that is what we have been here all the time. So nothing new he has said, and all of us not making that mistake he was talking about.

Fatunad

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Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 01:25:43 AM

Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

Now you may say yes 10 years ago there was an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

There's no such certainty into this world and into those people who had believed Bitcoin into its earliest days or years are the ones who did really make some huge profit when this market boomed up.
Even themselves didnt expect that they would be able to get soo much profits but of course we do know that not all are really that on the same situation on which there are tons who had lost their wallets,
sold early and other issues on which they cant be able to get their coins back or have been able to lose it out as years passed and checked later on on the time that Bitcoin did make out some noise.

I have already hat been able to experience bullrun on 2x i can say on which i do really agree on that repeating on the same mistakes again and again.I've been wary about on that 3k dump and with that 15k dump
between those last 2 runs on which it is really just that a waste opportunity that i havent been able to stash up tons into those times on which it did really ends up on the
same result or outcome when bull run comes on which you are getting left behind just because you didnt stick into those main projects or coins.

bluebit25

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If we know everything that will happen in advance, we will really choose the best things for ourselves. I admit that 10 years ago I only saw bitcoin as a scam model, but the process of exposure to it has changed convinced that I was wrong in actually understanding anything about it.

Investing is not just about thinking goals, and simply because not everyone is the same, the truth is that it is not for the majority. The nature of the game is that the few will see the opportunity and take advantage. Everything that has passed should be viewed as a lesson to foster the current and future journey. I think comparing different markets is always unconvincing because each of us does not have the same financial perspective. Similar to people with a lot of money looking for stability rather than taking risks to increase their wealth, diversification is also a term for balancing the opportunities they know about. The choice is up to each of us. I don't like navigation that forces us to choose anything, because investing is no different from driving, you have to understand how the car operates to be able to drive it safely.

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Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 01:25:43 AM

~
u]Will we make the same mistake again and again?[/u]

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

If I say to you to invest in a meme coin right now and hold it for 10 years, will you do it?
If I say to you to invest in some low market cap coin right now, will you do it?

That's how people think about Bitcoin in 2014 that's why only a few people risked their money and invested in it. Now that we are in 2024, Bitcoin has been known worldwide already hence, many investors are trying to buy it. It's not a mistake that those who knew Bitcoin way back didn't invest, but they're just scared to risk their hard-earned money into something that they didn't even know because Bitcoin at that time was a new asset.

History repeats? and Again? Well, if we look at the price history of Bitcoin, it might seem that history is repeating itself, but that isn't always the case. I saw the price of Bitcoin at 4 digits way back in 2017-2018 and didn't invest at that time. Why? It's because I'm scared since I'm not that knowledgeable enough. Did I commit a mistake then? I would say no, but emotions got me at that time since I was a newbie.

abderrazak belkhir

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Quote from: bobbybkk on February 21, 2024, 02:02:00 AM

I think a reasonable approach to investing in Bitcoin lets say 1000 USD is :

The worst what can happen is that you lose the 1000 USD.

The best what can happen is that you make possibly 350 x profit = 350 000 USD

So maybe worth the risk to invest in Bitcoin...

I don't know how you are calculating Things but for sure 350x from the actual price seems impossible to happen, but the magic is that even if you wrote this message some years ago when bitcoin was under 10$ someone will read the messages and think that it's exaggerating and impossible to happen too

Darker45

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History may repeat but not all.

Although the astounding growth of Bitcoin is true, it can hardly be used to encourage somebody to invest at this point. Because it simply won't repeat. Not the level of growth, not the speed of such growth, not the profit. We have to be realistic and trim down our expectations. A decade from now, will Bitcoin grow 34,600% percent? I can say with certainty that it won't. There will still be profit, of course, but we probably can't even grow x10 anymore.

Some history doesn't repeat again and again. The train will leave at some point. And we can actually miss it just as we've missed Bitcoin at $0.001.

OcTradism

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Quote from: Jatiluhung on February 21, 2024, 08:07:50 PM

Well I even regret not caring about Bitcoin in the past. I just heard his name a lot and ignored him. So this time I don't want any regrets again. So I started investing and accumulating BTC since the bear market started.

There are some bear markets, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2022 and from your account registration date, I guess you implied about 2022 and 2023 bear market.

I know you even could invest earlier than 2022 or 2023, before you joined Bitcointalk like in 2021. Could you share a time when you started your first investment in Bitcoin, please.

Quote

Even since the price of BTC was still quite expensive at that time

If you invested in 2022, price was cheap but if you invested in 2021, price was more expensive. Again, please share that did you begin your investment in 2021?

Quote

But fortunately, after I accumulated using the DCA method, I now have a fairly low average purchase price and have doubled my profits at the current price. But I still invest in other things too. Because for me DIversification is the most important thing.

DCA is a good strategy for investors in Bitcoin. It can help them to accumulate Bitcoin regularly and without headache and need to find bottoms, good entries. This strategy helps investors to gradually spend big capital for their investment, without pressure of spending money.

Jatiluhung

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Well I even regret not caring about Bitcoin in the past. I just heard his name a lot and ignored him. So this time I don't want any regrets again. So I started investing and accumulating BTC since the bear market started. Even since the price of BTC was still quite expensive at that time. But fortunately, after I accumulated using the DCA method, I now have a fairly low average purchase price and have doubled my profits at the current price. But I still invest in other things too. Because for me DIversification is the most important thing.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 01:25:43 AM

I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?

Everyone knew that Bitcoin will reach 100k back in 2017, so of course they didn't sell at $20k and missed out on an opportunity to take huge profits and buy back at 15 times lower price in the bear market. Then in 2021 everyone knew it would reach $100k and the story repeated again with crash and a bear market.

You are right that in general the price will increase in this cycle, but no one has the slightest idea where the top will be, so waiting for some price level because some reach people predicted is will be very counter-productive for your investment.

passwordnow

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on February 21, 2024, 06:51:46 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on February 21, 2024, 06:47:35 PM

Bitcoin was still on its infancy during that time and this comparison would certainly be in favor of Bitcoin. The traditional assets don't move like that as they're more established and there won't be that much fluctuation anymore except with the real estate. Going on with today's price of Bitcoin and going back to its after a decade, we may have a lesser gain but I think that Bitcoin is still going to be the winner by that time.

As time goes by for Bitcoin, the increase is decreasing and if you've noticed that. From all of the ATHs, you can count how many times it had grown from the former ATH that it has got. So, those that have got in too early like under 2014 were the luckiest but I don't think that many of them are still holding when you have made like 10x-20x, you'd probably sell and that's the main point why many have sold a lot in the past. But as about doing the same mistake again, I wouldn't make the same mistake as I did in the last bull run that even before it, I've sold terribly.

We can't judge people who sold early because we have our own needs. Lucky for you if you have other means to sustain your living. But if you are relying from the profits that you can make out of this market, the likelihood that you will sell of is always there. So it is not about your belief on this market but sometimes it is your financial capability to hold your assets.

Yeah, I am not judging them but I have my shortcomings as well. I've sold a lot during the early days and it's because of the life situation that I have to deal with and I have encountered. And that's why I understand those that have managed to sell too early. I was just saying that if ever there have been early adopters, many of them probably sold a lot and that's why kudos to those that have diamond hands. Even if they've sold handful of it, they're still holding a lot of it.

And from the market that goes on up to this point and with the upcoming years, they're already in profit no matter what happens to bitcoin because they've bought it at a very discounted price and that's the reward that they deserve for believing to Bitcoin at an early stage when majority of the people don't and haven't heard it yet back then.

wallet4bitcoin

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Quote from: Maus0728 on February 21, 2024, 02:22:03 AM

I wouldn't say mistake though, some people just don't really like the idea of risking in bitcoin, remember that bitcoin is a volatile investment, much more so than gold and real estate so it really does make a difference why some people still have some doubts. It's also worth noting that along the way in 10 years of hodling bitcoin, there's going to be times when you'll be tempted to sell because bitcoin despite it's volatile nature, growth can still be shown in years so you might not even be getting a full profit out of that in 10 years.

I don't consider it a mistake. Lets face facts, the end point of all of these is to earn a living and have a family that is somewhat comfortable. So if you say you want to invest in real estate more than gold or Bitcoin, its an option of choice and what you actually need from the financial market. Some people only need to have one hundred thousand dollars in their accounts and not any more while some like Musk prefers to have a billion or even a trillion, their investment ideas and expectations are entirely not the same.

If one invests in Bitcoin and sees the need to sell off to solve a challenge, I don't see no big deal in it

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Quote from: Questat on February 21, 2024, 04:45:30 PM

It is not a mistake, some people never see it as worth taking especially if they don't understand. So we don't expect that everyone will consider and take this opportunity because investing is just for risk-takers, many people are just prefer to just simply work. In fact, even though Bitcoin has become too popular now, we still see people ignoring this. It means that not all have interests and we can't force them, even in investing in gold and real estate, only a few have the courage.

- knowledge and money -- these are the factors why people don't decide to invest.

Well, bitcoin is not for all people, I guess. No matter how popular or loud bitcoin's name, if the person doesn't have a slight idea about what bitcoin is or how you will earn bitcoin, they will never engage in that, or even if they engage in or start investing in bitcoin, if they stamble once, they will quit immediately. That's the common mistake of those beginners in trading, but we can't blame them as it is scary for a newbie to experience losing in their first experience in bitcoin investment. So the practical way is that those newbies should have a guide or even a trainer for them to efficiently invest in bitcoin, but of course it will take some expenses. The only thing that matters is how a newbie in bitcoin can cope with and adopt it; they should be the ones that will make themselves grow in bitcoin in order to earn on it. But if someone has the idea or knowledge of bitcoin but is still missing the opportunity to invest in it, then it's their loss for not taking the risk.

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Quote from: passwordnow on February 21, 2024, 06:47:35 PM

Bitcoin was still on its infancy during that time and this comparison would certainly be in favor of Bitcoin. The traditional assets don't move like that as they're more established and there won't be that much fluctuation anymore except with the real estate. Going on with today's price of Bitcoin and going back to its after a decade, we may have a lesser gain but I think that Bitcoin is still going to be the winner by that time.

As time goes by for Bitcoin, the increase is decreasing and if you've noticed that. From all of the ATHs, you can count how many times it had grown from the former ATH that it has got. So, those that have got in too early like under 2014 were the luckiest but I don't think that many of them are still holding when you have made like 10x-20x, you'd probably sell and that's the main point why many have sold a lot in the past. But as about doing the same mistake again, I wouldn't make the same mistake as I did in the last bull run that even before it, I've sold terribly.

We can't judge people who sold early because we have our own needs. Lucky for you if you have other means to sustain your living. But if you are relying from the profits that you can make out of this market, the likelihood that you will sell of is always there. So it is not about your belief on this market but sometimes it is your financial capability to hold your assets.

passwordnow

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Bitcoin was still on its infancy during that time and this comparison would certainly be in favor of Bitcoin. The traditional assets don't move like that as they're more established and there won't be that much fluctuation anymore except with the real estate. Going on with today's price of Bitcoin and going back to its after a decade, we may have a lesser gain but I think that Bitcoin is still going to be the winner by that time.

As time goes by for Bitcoin, the increase is decreasing and if you've noticed that. From all of the ATHs, you can count how many times it had grown from the former ATH that it has got. So, those that have got in too early like under 2014 were the luckiest but I don't think that many of them are still holding when you have made like 10x-20x, you'd probably sell and that's the main point why many have sold a lot in the past. But as about doing the same mistake again, I wouldn't make the same mistake as I did in the last bull run that even before it, I've sold terribly.

EL MOHA

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Quote from: bobbybkk on February 21, 2024, 02:02:00 AM

I think a reasonable approach to investing in Bitcoin lets say 1000 USD is :

The worst what can happen is that you lose the 1000 USD.

The best what can happen is that you make possibly 350 x profit = 350 000 USD

So maybe worth the risk to invest in Bitcoin...

There is no disputing fact that bitcoin is the best in-terms of ROI but let’s roll this back how many people had trusted bitcoin in that past or believe it could go this far and generate this kind of returns, I will tell you they were few and even those few some got the bitcoin through faucets or other than. Even Michael Saylor himself was one of those who thought of it as a volatile currency that wouldn’t last this much. The few that actually invested part of them took profit when they saw it turn to $10k and only few actually left it that way, that’s why I always say respect to them early investors and long holders they paved the way with there patience.

Quote from: Minor Miner on February 21, 2024, 01:25:43 AM

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

In as much as bitcoin is forever increasing and we can only speculate its price currently I don’t see bitcoin giving out the returns it did In the past 15 years in its next 39 years because as we grow more the volatility rate of bitcoin is decreasing and the also as the market price increases, the volume needed to push it up increases also. A smaller volume like In the last won’t shift it now, more of the reason why low cap Altcoins move up quickly. So 300x is something that will take a much much longer time to arrive from now

famososMuertos

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Yes, even today we can project large returns with bitcoin, but it is somewhat a bad habit of the community to aim for a large multiplier. (hey, I love them too)

A gain of +5% is a good return, but the point is that new bitcoin "investors" want wealth, and they forget about adoption, hey!, board bitcoin discussion here, Right?, If you enter with the idea of adoption you will have no problems with a 5% profit.

Topic: How many times we will make the same mistake? - History repeats Again & Again! - page 5. (Read 1306 times)