Topic: How many times we will make the same mistake? - History repeats Again & Again! - page 2. (Read 1302 times)

Honestly I had the feeling that was what you meant cause there wasn’t any other way to read that message so I asked to be certain so I don’t make such bad assumptions. I don’t know what you’re going through but I hope you find healing and be able to stay for even many more decades so you can watch Bitcoin skyrocket, since you said it has the biggest portion of your heart.

I don't know if any of us in this forum now will be alive when Bitcoin block reward will become zero because this is the only time that is not clear to me of what direction Bitcoin will go. By that time, people might pay higher fews to carry out transaction or it could also be normal like we have now, this is soemthing I do not know but I'm sure there will be a way to keep Bitcoin going, so no cause for alarm.

The people that should be worried about the future of Bitcoin are those preparing to pass their Bitcoin stash on to their heirs. Their worries will not be to themselves but their children because it is their heirs that may see when the block reward will get to zero.

Nobody knows the features of bitcoin especially when will be life spam of bitcoin, we don't have fear for something we don't know how it will end, just put bitcoin in your place like any other things you know that may end today or may not end in feature, so what you are just doing is assumption and over prediction of feature, theirs nothing that doesn't have to do with what is necessary or what's good, I believe that bitcoin investment is better any portfolio you assume that will be of help in altcoins investment, nothing tomorrow will yield in bitcoin long-term holding, we get fear in bitcoin but we don't get fear in any other investment that has to deal with risk

Bitcoin as an asset has well beat gold if you ask me, cause bitcoin has not exited long enough as gold yet it has well beat it in value and almost some distance to it's total market cap which we could well exceed in up to 50 - 100 years to come, investing in gold can only be as a store of value reason and even now that fact is shaking, hold is been minned almost every day and amount of gold available is more than 2x the size of all available bitcoin, so In terms of store of value bitcoin would well beat gold, the only reason why most person's don't want to store value In bitcoin is cause it's still volatile and fluctuates at times but still yet in terms of how it was built, it's better than gold in almost everything.

Like you said gold would only be very needful for a situation where electricity has a problem or some Armageddon-type situation that destroys the power supply of the world and that seems so less likely to happen, so bitcoin is still a better asset than gold because it was built better.


Many person's are most likely thinking in terms of having safety by investing in shitcoins without even weighing that decision, almost all other altcoins are well depending on bitcoin to gain value, that means if anything happens to bitcoin all other altcoins are well affected by it, so if I am afraid that something bad would happen to bitcoin and my safety plan is to invest in altcoins then I'm making a foolish decision cause if anything happens to bitcoin all the rest are well affected.

If there is any need to diversify from bitcoin so early as an investor (which I doubt cause right now bitcoin would well challenge any investment asset or stock and bound and we'll come out on top) then you should be thinking in terms of tangible investment like real estates, shares , stocks and bonds etc which most of them would require you a level of funds to engage in.

A more tangible advice, build your bitcoin portfolio first for up to 8 years before you start thinking of diversification, but anyway it's your choice I can't tell you reason for been afraid of bitcoin and it's good to make this decisions yourself cause it's your risk, but your investing a in a more risky path if you invest in shitcoins cause they don't have any real value of themselves.

O.k.. maybe the unit is not correct, but the trend seems to be correct, and if we look at bitcoin's overall market cap compared with gold, the trend is the same.. bitcoin is currently right around 1/10th or maybe 1/12th of gold's market cap and bitcoin is likely going to fairly easily get to 10x gold's market cap in this cycle or maybe the next 2-3 cycles, and then surely the time between bitcoin getting from 10x to 1,000x gold's market cap could take a while longer.. maybe 50-200 years.. and so we cannot really know for sure, even if we can see the trend, and we can even understand why bitcoin right around 1,000x better than gold... in terms of its various monetary characteristics, scarcity, divisibility, verifiability, portability, censorship resistance, costs in terms of needs for use of third-parties.

So, even if the details are not exactly clear, we should be able to recognize the ongoing power of bitcoin in terms of our own investment allocation choices, and if you want to keep a lot of gold instead of bitcoin because you believe that it serves some meaningful financial purpose (from here forward), then that's your choice. 

I will give you that there could be some Armageddon-type purposes to keep some physical gold, but that still likely is pretty low in terms of how much preparation that you really need in that direction as compared to bitcoin - even though bitcoin relies on communications and even electricity/power.


That chart that you are showing from me was for the purpose of someone inputting whatever his own expectations might be regarding BTC price increases while he is investing into BTC and using an 8% per year BTC price appreciation as a potential assumption that a guy might plug in to the spreadsheet.

When it comes to attempts to predict future BTC prices, personally, I like to refer to my entry-level fuck you status chart, which tries to project BTC price bottoms and it uses the 200-WMA to show past changes in the 200-WMA. .while at the same time attempting to make some kind of a reasonable prediction of future direction (that is of the bottom BTC price of the 200-WMA in order to figure out how many BTC that anyone might need to reach default entry-level fuck you status of the chart that is implied that fuck you status has an entry-level value of $2 million).

So that entry-level fuck you status chart shows mid-2034 as having a bottom (a 200-WMA) of nearly $287k - and of course, the chart should be updated each 6 months to attempt to verify if the 200-WMA is tracking above or below expectations.. so personally, I am expecting the chart to change every 6 months, and right now for the current 6 months it is right around 20% or more higher than expectations, and the next update will be in the end of May.


Part of the reason that my fuck you status chart is showing fairly conservative with only about $31,500 and $287k , which is ONLY a 9.1x increase in the bottom price, yet I bet that bitcoin outperforms gold, equities and property, and I doubt that you get 3x to 5x increases in property in terms of real terms.


Fair enough.  I am not trying to be any more hard on you than you deserve, and sure I was speculating a little bit in regards to why you said what you said, but now you explained further to show that I was not too far off in my superficial assessment of the situation. ..

And in the end, it does not really matter very much about your own personal position or situation. That is up to you to determine.  We are responding in a public thread, so if there are ambiguities, then members should be attempting to clarify those ambiguities, when feasible.


Hopefully, you are not too distracted by shitcoins.  I tend to recommend either no shitcoins or if you cannot resist, then to limit them to no more than 10% of your bitcoin holdings.  I imagine that even if BTC is your BIGGEST portion, it still is not close to 90%, and maybe it is not even more than 50% hahahahaha.. which  means you probably don't understand what is bitcoin as compared with the various shitcoins that you have chosen to waste your time, energy and money.


Surely, people have to figure out why they are in bitcoin, and whether they merely want to get short term dollar profits, or perhaps some guys might be trying to hold bitcoin for longer time frames in order to have more options 4-10 years or longer down the road.   So anyone still accumulating bitcoin can be placed in a dilemma regarding their continuation to accumulate, even when the BTC prices are going up a lot.. And in that regard, you don't increase your bitcoin position by selling.  You ONLY can increase your position by buying, and if you are in the accumulation stage of your bitcoin journey, then you should not sell bitcoin if your goal is to accumulate more of it..   

On the other hand, once you get to a point of adequate accumulation and/or over accumulation, then you have more options to sell some of it while it is going up, and if it does not go up then you don't sell it.. so then if you are overaccumulated, and then you want to start cashing out, then you should be able to cash out at any time and surely, it feels better to be cashing out when the price is going out rather than if it is just flat.... but at the same time, there could be concerns about selling too many BTC too soon, especially since previous ATHs tend to be pass through zones rather than being places in which any of us would be or should be expecting corrections... even though in the short term, anything can happen.

The highest ATH is not yet, but according to previous ATH predictions, the highest price this month can be said to have exceeded the ATH in question. Although in a different space we will see the highest ATH according to a cycle that runs through a period process that has not been able to be determined accurately. This shows how strong the influence of bitcoin is and that it is able to stand by its fundamentals because even though the world economy is slightly weakening, bitcoin's journey cannot be dictated by just one event.

That's why someone's presence in bitcoin does not require excessive worry because market reactions occur beyond logic and even though ATH has not yet fully arrived, bitcoin can always provide a surprise. Increase investment and then hold on until we can go to the moon because that is actually the investment we hope for.

Fraud and theft is the same thing is the same thing with hacks, you didn't know that when someone hacks your account that they're also stealing your data? I think that's a given thing already. It's also worth noting that the things that you're talking about aren't going anywhere anyway, there's a lot of money in crypto, always expect that there's someone out that will want to break that because they want those crypto for themselves. Also, what the hell is this wrong bitcoin? Ain't no way that someone can mistake bitcoin for something else right? I don't really think that it's true for many people that it's their number one reason for not investing in bitcoin though, think about it, they don't know about bitcoin and most of them don't have that much knowledge about technology so I don't think that hacks, frauds and thefts are the things that would first come to their mind when you introduce them to bitcoin.

when you are making comparison between real estate management or a real estate investment with the cryptocurrency investment especially Bitcoin you should do know also that both of them have different margin because real estate, because a real statement management is kind of management that even in urban area it has to do with a recommendation and also a population size of the city so the profit in real Estate Management is very slide to be measured or to be compared to bitcoin investment because a real state management can cost a damage when a government recite a development in your real Estate government can wake up at any point in time to take over your property since it is a landed property, but government cannot wake and take your Bitcoin that is the difference between Real Estate Management and Investment of Bitcoin

Although real estate assets can still be said to be a good investment, when compared to Bitcoin, these assets are still very far from producing good profits.
And if you want big profits in the real estate sector, you also have to buy real estate that is in an urban area and is busy with people, of course it has a high property value and must be supported by this. Security and existence of public facilities, population growth and ease of access and so on. However, most of them only get a profit of 2x the previous purchase price and even then it takes quite a long time, at least 4-5 years to get a fairly decent profit. And the question is if the price goes up, is it easy to sell it because the price is already high and often it is difficult to sell and inevitably you have to lower the selling price.
The comparison is very large when compared with Bitcoin, buying Bitcoin if it is not sold for 4-5 years is guaranteed to make a profit many times over. Because 4-5 years is the Bitcoin cycle which will make the Bitcoin price become a new ATH or at least the price will be much higher than the previous purchase price for 4-5 years. And it is clearly very different in terms of profits when compared to Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is the best investment in terms of long-term profits and it is also not difficult to sell it back.

Come on JJG, please don't be too harsh on me. My portfolio is composed of majority in Bitcoin. What I mean by that is I don't know if I'll still be living by that time.

You don't know what I am experiencing right now and what may happen to me by tomorrow or after a decade and that's why I've said I don't know if I'll still be around by that time.

I've got a position that I can decide to hold even more than a decade but it is that I don't know what tomorrow may bring to me and this is outside bitcoin and the market. I may not be a bitcoin maxi because I hold some alts but it has the biggest portion of my holdings and my heart. <3

Yeah, just plan your actions on how you'd increase your position or time of selling.

May I draw my conclusion/opinion from your last sentence?
that if bitcoin is no longer in its infancy then the procurement value will not reach more than 1000x, right, just like property and gold which only have a procurement value of up to 15x,
but it makes sense that if the price of 1 btc gets more expensive it will be more difficult for people to have 1 btc if they want to buy instantly

We see there is a difference in maturity here too, what makes Bitcoin gain higher is because of the age factor. Bitcoin is the newest while Gold and Property have been investment media for many people for a long time. Just think about the next 10 years.

If gold is able to provide 2x profits and property is able to provide 15x profits or at worst maybe 10x, can bitcoin get 350x again?


While currently the price of BTC is 62k, if that 350x could happen again, do you believe the price of BTC will be $21.7m per BTC in 10 years?

A multiplier of that size only came because Bitcoin was still in its infancy 10 years ago. Meanwhile, the other instruments you mentioned are not babies anymore.

10 years from now no body will assume or think that had it been they baught btc in 2024, that such figure of about %34600 would have been achieved in 2034, the value is an unrealistic value. I may not know much in cryptocurrency but I know if a coin pumps from maybe 0.000125 to $20 or #30 it will be difficult to pump in thousands again. meaning it will take time to grow. It might even take 10years to complete %500. ever since bitcoin has grown so high it has never grown by 50percent or or %100percent a day but may take 1year to make it atain %100. Check-in from the last ATH of bitcoin, when btc fell below the ATH. It took Bitcoin 3years to regain a lost of  almost %70 since 2021 to 2024, if not more than. So it might just take btc %100 or%150 to complete a ten years cycle. Let's take a look at this JJG table of absumbtion.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63695151

Though this table was made on absumbtion but there is still more realistic value in growth compeard to this your value of %34600 if you check intervals of ten year might just be a %100 or highest %200 you can check the value in the first year 1/14/2025  was $59.999.40 and the value in the 10th year 1/14/34 at $119.939.08 that is approximately %100 .

I snipped the rest, but there is something very wrong with that chart.

Gold is currently about $2,037 per ounce, so you need about 30 or 31 ounces of gold to buy one bitcoin (current price $62,900) not 200.

Of course in year's to come bitcoin is going to 8 figures because the drastic growth 📈 of bitcoin is going into something else even to some people who fails to invest now and to have the knowledge of bitcoin investment will definitely live to regret it because bitcoin is going to a height that even the atmosphere do not understand......

But come to think of it why will a living in this generation won't think of bitcoin and it future because the later is going to be greater than the formal just like last year till today though it is a coin that has a downtrend sometimes but believe me bitcoin will always rise to a tremendous point that people who even withdraw during downtrend will also regret why this is a pure business you have to do with a high IQ and we all have to be expectant when bitcoin is mentioned because the future is near and very great

I 100% agree with you here because it was more easier for Bitcoin to do $34600% while in lower figures than for it to replicate that same feet at this current price it's already at, especially in a very short period of time like the ten years period of time, because I really don't see Bitcoin hitting a billion dollars in ten years time even though it's a very attractive asset to invest in.

That's major upset upon buying a real estate asset since you need to make sure that there are plans for urban developments on the land you bought since if nothing happens and it remains stagnant or no anything happening then this will be a waste of your money and time especially if you aim for that investment is to gain a profit for long term.

That's how beautiful of investing on bitcoin since the future is really good and there are a lot of good things still possible to happen so the potential to earn big by holding it for long years is really great. If we see statistics on the price each year we can say that there are great price changes which is good for all long term investors then for sure they are enjoying the profit generated on their investment.

But wait o I could remember around November 2021 that was exactly when bitcoin made an incredible growth rate in the market which was about $69k alot of people made a huge profit thinking is going to be permanent that was the hieght of bitcoin ATH before the downtrend of bitcoin...

Aftermost, People thinks that bitcoin will never rise again to such level again not until this year and before then alot is investor who could not bear it had to forge ahead to withdraw their bitcoin investment without think of profit because when you withdraw during a downtrend there will be no profit because the bitcoin value was drastically going downhill...

Currently bitcoin has surpassed all the coin again growing and flourishing to reach that level or even more than of that 2021 ATH because it is uptrend is so fast that it could go far more than the 2021 ATH today bitcoin is $64k making a great progress just with the last 4 months moving faster in the last 2 weeks to gets to this growth it is actually progressing making all the investors very happy and efficient with all their focus on their investments.....

Today almost every living thing on earth want to buy and invest in bitcoin because it actually making a huge progress accumulating alot of profit for the investors indeed bitcoin is just the most precious coin on the earth now...

If we are talking about dollars, bitcoin has not reached it's new ATH.

We got up to $64k today, and the ATH from November 2021 is $69k..

Bitcoin is reaching ATHs against various other currencies .. and likely those currencies had been weaker than the dollar in the last 2-ish years.


You are correct.  For some, bitcoin is just becoming investable, both in terms of its market cap and also in terms of its gaining mainstream acceptability.  And, even with all of that, we are still early for anyone thinking that bitcoin is in a bubble or getting mature or any of that blah blah blah bullshit.

It is a little unfair to other assets, but this is where we are at, including that so many other assets have been corrupted by various dollar debt systems, which is harder to accomplish with bitcoin, even though surely folks are going to try to corrupt bitcoin in the same way.. and let's see how it goes... much still to be determined in bitcoin's early days (years) of existence.

Now, even though it looks like this is a perfect motivasion for people to invest in Bitcoin, you still have to put everything into proper context, before you make this comparison.

Now, 10 years ago... Bitcoin was a very controversial topic and also not regulated and accepted in most countries, so the risk of buying bitcoins back then was a lot higher than what it is 10 years later.

Not a lot of people would have risked dumping money into something that was unregulated and not adopted and accepted by a lot of people.