You know the interesting part of all of this? You’d make profit from all of them. Regarding Bitcoin, we know better now but looking back at 10 years ago, you never really knew what today would be if it’d be an abandoned idea or as huge as we’ve seen it. I’d say that if you have enough money (really wealthy), diversify your investments. Invest in all 3 of them after all, you’ll make profit from all.
If you account for the debasement of the dollar, you likely are not making money in all, especially in real terms rather than nominal terms.
Bitcoin has ongoing good chances to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and also to outperform the dollar's level of persistent, consistent and inevitably ongoing debasement. Good luck if you are investing in that other stuff.
I know that Bitcoin definitely does better (even asides the dollar debasement) but I think that at least, the other investments at least gives some fair gain. If you say it doesn’t because of dollar debasement, that means you’re saying that so far, people who have invested in Gold for the past 10 years has technically earned nothing? Or did I get it wrong?
When ever an asset only has nominal gains and it does not have real gains, then they have not earned (or gained) anything in terms of the cost of living of things that they could purchased, but they did better than keeping their value in dollars.
I totally understand and get your point. However, I am asking if you can/will explicitly say that people who invested in Gold has made no gain?
You are going to have to figure that out yourself.
From my understanding gold had a pretty decent rise between about 2000 and 2011, and it has been pretty stagnant since then, so even if you have nominal gains in gold since 2011, you have not experienced real gains since the dollar has largely debased by a similar amount.
In regards to bitcoin, gold has been performing pretty badly, and you can zoom in and out of this timeline
https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/right now it takes more than 200 oz of gold to buy 1 BTC, and sure there are ups and downs, but the trend surely looks like gold is losing out to bitcoin, and so the question about whether you need any gold in your portfolio is surely questionable.... especially for anyone who might not even know how to deal with gold (referring to physical gold).. Of course, there is paper gold which would give you supposed price exposure to gold.. .. and so it is your choice if you think that you need more than a few percentage in your investment portfolio.. and surely bitcoin should probably between 5% and 25% for beginners,
and then you have to figure out how to deal with gainz and whether to reallocate, which is not necessarily smart to reallocate your winners into your losers.. so there are many folks (including yours truly) who are heavily weighted into bitcoin based on largely a conservative allocation into bitcoin, but then when bitcoin gains against everything else, then it becomes a disproportionately large portion of your overall investment portfolio, so then you have to figure out how to (or if) to reallocate. I do very little reallocation, even though I do shave some off of the top, which is a form of reallocation, but it tends to not be a lot..
I mean… I don’t expect you to because the reason we look at gold the way we do now is that Bitcoin has created history and has made gold look even slower than it is.
Bitcoin is eating gold's lunch and it is going to continue to eat gold's lunch.
Bitcoin is probably around 1,000x better than gold, even though it is right around 1/12th the size of gold.
Sure, it could take 50 to 200 years before bitcoin reaches its fair market value as compared to gold, yet you still have to make a decision on a personal level regarding your allocations and how much you want to keep in gold and if you want to complain about the trends that are likely going to continue. and it might even get worse in terms of more and more folks (individuals, institutions and governments) dropping gold and adding bitcoin.
Anyways, Bitcoin will take a longer time to reach that price you talk of. It was easier for Bitcoin when it was worth a lot less than now it is worth as much as $57k. Half a million may be seen as just 10x of the current price, but that’s a lot
Edit: I thought you meant half a million but you get the point.
It is possible, with varying degrees that bitcoin could have a top anywhere between $57k and $2 million plus - of course with varying levels of probabilities for each of the price points, and surely the top of this cycle could help inform what might be the range of possibilities for the next cycle, and part of the benefits of any asymmetric bet is that if you do not leverage, then you are only going to lose, at most, 100% of what you had invested. So it is your choice if you allocate 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio into it (which seems prudent) or some other amount, or not at all.. and then live with the consequences.. and yeah if you don't invest now, then you can choose to invest later, if bitcoin is still around by that later time that you might reconsider the matter.
I also believe that it possible, I just don’t see it as easy as it had been when Bitcoin was way cheaper and easy to afford. Let’s see how it unfolds, for the least, I expect Bitcoin to go way higher but no one knows how high that could be.
Of course, no one knows how high bitcoin might go, but you still can think about your own allocation and realize that the most that you can lose is 100% of what you allocated to bitcoin.. so if you are thinking that we are top heavy right now, then maybe instead of investing $100 per week, you invest $10 per week and wait for a correction, and if a correction does not happen, then you may well be regretting that you were overly whimpy. There are consequences to action and there are also consequences to inaction.
Anther thing is that there might have been guys who were buying a lot of bitcoin between $50k and $70k in 2021, and maybe they ended up front loading their investment (and lump summing), and I would call them dummies if they had a lot of conviction in 2021, but they failed/refused to continue buying throughout 2022 and maybe into 2023, and depending on how much they had front loaded, at some point they would have had gotten back into profits, especially in the last several months, maybe even going back to October 2023 - and it has been pretty much straight up since October 2023, absent a few smaller 10% ish corrections and ONLY 1 correction from $49k to $38.5k.. so I would expect even a few bumps in the road like that should not have had shaken confidence if someone is actually committed and maybe not investing more than they can lose - even if they might have started out by buying fairly BIGgly during some of the relative tops of 2021.
I personally don't valuate BTC based on tops, but instead by bottoms, and surely if you look at BTC bottoms, we have had ongoing moving up of the 200-Week moving average through all of BTC's history, even if we had the lowest level of its growth between mid 2022 and late 2023 with ONLY around 20% annualized during that time, which you can see in
my entry-level fuck you status chart.
