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Topic: Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity? - page 12. (Read 102809 times)

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Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98553

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
Yea, right. Armstrong plead guilty to criminal conspiracy. You can even find his guilty plea online.

I wonder what he’s NOT telling us.

Since you continue to pontificate without doing your homework, then you have compelled me to spend several hours of my scarce time to do it for you, because I refuse to allow you to slander an innocent man.

The intentional ridicule implicit in his joke about being promised pizza should have tipped you off about the sincerety of his “guilty plea”.

He was forced under duress to plead guilty.


http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/martin-armstong-forced-to-move-to-high.html

Quote from: Martin’s younger sister, Nancy
... was basically TORTURED. According to Martin’s younger sister, Nancy, he was locked in solitary confinement for almost the entire 7 years duration, suffering days on end and at times was intentionally awaken every hour or so all night long, night after night, in an attempt to get him to sign a confession. He was repeatedly told that he would not get the chance to see his 91 year old mother alive again if he did not sign the confession. This took place off and on for SEVEN YEARS. Then one day a huge convict, “a known homicidal maniac” named George, was locked in his cell with him where he proceeded to beat and strangle him until he thought he was dead. Later, according to Armstrong, a fellow inmate stated that the guards watched the beating and refused to open the door to stop it. He lost most of his teeth, and now, over two years later is still missing them because the prison system only has one dentist for over 5,000 inmates. He suffered a detached retina, broken ribs and other internal injuries that left him in intensive care.

They offered him a plea agreement to TIME SERVED if he would plea guilty and after 7 years, he could take no more and agreed, obviously under heavy duress

http://www.topix.com/forum/business/TS8IHELKS6G8FDV65/post2

Quote
John  Jersey City, NJ
#2 Aug 15, 2006
Now that his trial date is coming up the federal prison that he is in has put him in solitary confinement, which takes away his possibility of using all the documents, library, computer, etc. in order to form a defense. He is also only allowed one phone call every two weeks, making it even harder to contact the outside world and put together a defense. If there are any journilist out there that would like to inquire about this please see the contact info below.
MCC NEW YORK
METROPOLITAN CORRECTIONAL CENTER

150 PARK ROW
NEW YORK, NY 10007
MapQuest� Map and Directions1
Ph: 646 836 6300
Fx: 646 836 7751
E-mail address: NYM/[email protected]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/martin-armstrong-legal-update-092811.pdf

Quote from: Armstrong
I provided the evidence how the SEC director picked the receiver, then left the SEC and became a partner of O’Melveny & Myers. No mention of how the receiver became a director of Goldman Sachs yet still ran Princeton Economics. No mention of Mr. Schiavoni’s email demanding the model or they would shut down the Princeton Economic Institute. No mention that the CFTC lawyer who crafted the allegations was disbarred for falsifying evidence after handling the Sumitomo copper manipulation that did not name any US banks, only Japanese. No word as to how I could be held in contempt AFTER Republic National Bank paid back $606 million or pocketing Princeton’s $400 million yet I was held for the next 7 years when I owed nothing.

...

How our firm can be gathering evidence against organized market manipulations as GATA and others were trying to do and then the Government seized our firm misrepresenting contracts that PURCHASED portfolios as part of a bail out in Japan claiming they were SOLICITATIONS for management and then appoints as a receiver who becomes a board member of one of the very firms we were investigating, confiscates all the evidence we gathered , alters transcripts that Judge Owen publicly had to admit, and then they kept me in prison on contempt refusing to release me at any time even if friends put up the FULL amount of cash they claimed to be looking for, is just uncivilized.

Now, one Government employee has come forward SUBMITTING under oath in the Court of Appeals in Washington, DC, an affidavit admitting what every rational person knew stating the Government conceded there was NO sufficient evidence against me or Princeton Economics but they refused to release me unless I pled (see attached).

Meanwhile, evidence of what went on at the bank remains SEALED by the court and is not allowed to be released to the public. So much for the truth! Attorneys for HSBC sought and obtained a lifetime gag order to prevent me from EVER releasing evidence to the public to exonerate myself. One such telephone transcript shows how illegal trades were being stuffed in to our hedging accounts:


Quote from: sealed evidence
He (Armstrong) doesn’t know that, though. He doesn’t know what you do in A (Account) though right? Not really. He doesn’t know what he does in any of them No, he doesn’t.

Disclosure prevented by order of Judge McKenna

Another obvious fact is that Republic National Bank pled guilty, paid $606 million in January 2002. All the bankers agreed to return the funds as long as they were NOT charged. So if everyone was made WHOLE in January 2002, why was I not released? ... If I owed NO restitution, then WHY did the Government keep me in prison for the next 7 years to turnover assets for something I did not owe?

...

When a Federal Judge admits publically that he was altering the transcripts in court after the fact, then how can anyone trust what is taking place in Federal courts anymore?

http://www.bangkokbusinessbrief.com/2012/10/26/martin-armstrong-fraud-or-genius/

Quote from: Armstrong interview
To avoid a potentially damning trial for the bank, this is where the contempt of court situation arose. And why some believe Armstrong was charged and jailed because of the length of time he was held, but this is not the case he says.
“To prevent a trial they created a contempt of court situation – which is not a crime. A judge can say, ‘I think you should do this and I’m going to put you in jail until you do it.’ The judge directed me to turn over assets and the court officer Tancred Shiavoni further demanded my computer model source be turned over to the court as well. They claimed this was in case I owed something upon conviction but in the end I didn’t owe anything – the bank did.
“And because it’s not a ‘crime’ and the judge is not ‘punishing’ you, you are not entitled to lawyers or a trial. They kept me in jail for seven years for assets that maybe I might owe, but didn’t at the end of the day.

...

“The only reason I was [ever finally] released [in 2011] is because we got the case to the Supreme Court and they asked the prosecutors, why is this man in prison? There were three postponements and then they finally just released me to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/29/is-the-new-world-order-cracking-apart/

Quote from: Armstrong
I have been confronted directly. I have had my family threatened and wrote a letter to SEC prosecutor Dorothy Heyl and bluntly stated if Alan Cohen and Tancred Schiavoni did not stop threatening my family I would commit suicide to protect them but I would not go quietly. I had given friends letters that would be publish if push that far. She had them back off. Then I faced the evil duo. I was told to confess to being in a conspiracy with Edmond Safra who I believe Putin killed for trying to take over Russia by blackmailing Yeltsin and I would be released. I laughed and said no way.

In the movie coming out, someone from government has come forward and stated on camera he was told they had no evidence against me and were just trying to break me. The FBI showed up at his house the day before the interview and tried to intimidate him. He had the guts to tell them to get out.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/09/04/the-truth-about-solitary-confinement/

Quote from: Armstrong
Unfortunately, it is standard torture practices used in the Justice Department to ensure they get their 98% plea rate so they never have to go to trial. In my own case, they came out and told me to my face they did not want to go to trial. They offered two deals. I refused, so off to solitary confinement you go. They will do whatever it takes to break people. Solitary is no joke.

... Schiffer. It turned out Judge Owen caused him to commit suicide hanging himself stripped of counsel and harassed by government on every front. Some people just cannot endure this type of treatment. This is how they get their pleas – threats and torture.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/22/entire-court-in-california-had-to-step-down-all-judges/

Quote from: Armstrong
I forced Judge Owen to publicly admit he was changing my transcripts on September 23, 2003. Judge Owen had thrown the Associated Press out on April 27th, 2000 creating a closed secret court proceeding that is totally illegal. As an American citizen I was supposed to have a public trial – good one! The AP actually printed that it was a closed court proceeding.

The AP reported I had stated from the outset Republic stole the money. You cannot get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knows where it is. That kind of money can only be wired, yet they pretended to be looking for something Republic had all the time.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/15/judge-rakoff-blasts-the-injustice-of-america/

Quote from: Armstrong
I agreed to allow a documentary film the FORECASTER to be made following me around since 2011 that is more of a movie when you see it for two reasons. To expose the legal system to the world and to expose the truth behind the shenanigans behind the curtain the rigging of the financial markets. I was not interested in a poor me film since I have moved on. I do not need the sympathy thank you. It has contributed to the expansion of my knowledge.

Yet I respect that if government could do this to me, who was very high-profile internationally, they could do it to anyone. They plastered pictures of me with Margaret Thatcher in the press as a warning to other US politicians to stay back. Whatever these people do, they do for a self-interest of power to sustain their 99% conviction rate. You have indeed a better chance at winning the lottery than a getting any kind of fair trial.

I was fortunate to be able to handle myself with respect to the rule of law. Others have not faired so well. The SEC in a civil case took all the lawyers away from Steven Fisher and drove him to commit suicide.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/research/rule-of-law/goldman-sachs-v-armstrong/

Quote from: Armstrong
I kept track of all the countless market manipulations that the Untouchables were orchestrating. There were a number of us around the world who monitored what they were doing just to ensure we did not get caught up in their manipulations. Every phone call was recorded to ensure that if I was ever sued in what I thought was an honest court, I could prove my sources.

Every manipulation they did from rhodium to platinum to interest rates, Russia and politicians were always documented. The wealth of investigative material in an honest world would have brought down the New York Investment bankers and sent them away to prison for life if not wound them on the gallows for treason. All of this material was not gathered with any idea of using it against them – but to be able to advise clients what they were up to next.

At our March 1999 Tokyo Conference, we warned publicly that the “club” was then targeting the Japanese yen for the seasonal rollover. We advised our Japanese client to lock in their trade to defeat that manipulation. They did and the yen moved from the 116 level up to 124 causing massive losses to the “club”. Here is our slide presentation for that Conference in Tokyo.

... the SEC requested Alan Cohen to be the receiver who just so happened to be their hand picked judge’s Richard Owen’s former law clerk.

It then came out early on that Alan Cohen somehow found out I had given audio tapes covering the organized trading of the “club” manipulating markets and threatened my lawyers if they did not produce all the tapes, they were to be thrown in prison. Everyone I had spoke to about the manipulations on an ongoing basis had been documented. That would have been enough to shut down the New York Investment Bank manipulations. Phone calls with numerous dealing desks around the world documented every manipulation and scam they had pulled off from bribing government official to targeting countries. It was not my intent to run to the authorities and say here is the evidence to shut down the bankers. This was to purely advise clients when to duck.

It certainly appears highly suspicious to everyone that Alan Cohen would then be appointed a board member of Goldman Sachs head of Global Compliance when Goldman would NEVER had hired someone from the outside who clearly did not even understand markets. Alan Cohen liquidated the open yen positions we had in our accounts assuming they were speculation when they were a hedge. He lost I believe $100 million in short order. How could Goldman hire someone who did not even know the difference between a hedge and a speculative trade.

... all the evidence we gathered that would have put all the bankers in prison for life, magically disappeared in the collapse of the SEC Building World Trade Cent 7 that amazingly was not even hit by an plane in the 911 attack. This has been yet another part of the amazing coincidence behind everything in this case. Our computers and all the evidence in our case, including the evidence gathered documenting more than a decade of organized manipulations were amazingly destroyed in the only building that was never hit by anything nor was there any major fire. This in itself has led to countless suspicions about what really went on behind the collapse of the SEC offices in World Trade Center 7. Here is a video on this strange set of circumstances plus a letter from the SEC claiming all evidence in my case was destroyed, ...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/1113-2/schiavoni-cohen-of-goldman-sachs-demands-source-code-of-model/

Quote from: Armstrong
I know if I turned over the [model’s] source code, they could kill me ...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/

Quote from: Armstrong
It took me more than 10 years to get that partially overturned only when I submitted transcripts of their employees on phone calls deciding what account to hide their losses in, they had the audacity to argue I could not even show these transcripts to a court!  They were hiding losses in accounts where there was never supposed to be any trading. (09-1260 Sealed exhbiits).

They would never go to trial and were simply indefinitely imprisoning me until I would say whatever they demanded. The Second Circuit decision was done by George Bush’s cousin – Judge John Walker, Jr. wrote the opinion in which even now Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor disagreed writing: “Judge Walker’s opinion suggests that there is no discernible outer bound on a court’s inherent power to detain a contemnor indefinitely.”

Why would Cohen never produce an order? Because behind closed doors they could demand things they did not want to admit publicly. Here is an email confirming they wanted me to turn over the SOURCE code to our model or they would shut down Princeton Economics (Hecht Emails).

I appealed the contempt to the Supreme Court and Judge Walker’s insane opinion that judges could do as they liked and the Constitution did not apply. The Supreme Court ordered the government to reply.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/the-rapidly-approaching-demise-of-japan-2/

Quote from: Armstrong
Like Goldman Sachs has infiltrated governments worldwide, in Japan, it is MOF that is close to the bankers and it is MOF that has always controlled government. Kenji Eda to publish a book in March entitled: “Finance Ministry Mind Control: The frightening methods of finance ministry bureaucrats, who brainwashed Prime Minister Noda to engineer the tax increase.” This indicates the truly realization of what is taking place in Japan and why Japan will collapse into a final 26 year economic low.

...

In the case of Princeton Economics, MOF issued a letter saying that $30 billion in notes had been sold and $10 billion was supposed to be on deposit at Republic Bank in New York. They sent their letter to the Federal Reserve many believe intentionally for retaliating against our forecast delivered live in Tokyo that the LDP would lose power and that meant also MOF. When MOF lost power in 1998, it appears they deliberately lied to the Federal Reserve and then tried to pretend it was a mistake. For an agency in charge of manipulating the yen, it was not plausible to have made a decimal error in a calculation of this magnitude. They caused Republic to panic, who then stole about $1 billion grabbing what they thought they could and ran to the US authorities who simply filed charges without ever picking up the phone to speak to a single note-holder. To then find out that MOF then said sorry, they made a mistake on the calculation of the yen to the dollar and it was off on a decimal place was not plausible. They turned $3 billion in notes into $30 billion – 3 time the value of Republic Nstional Bsnk thst was sold to HSBC for $10 billion. When the dust settled, it turned out to be $3 billion sold, only $1 billion outstanding, and HSBC/Republic grabbed that, had to plead guilty and return the funds to receiver 100% immunity from the US government.

It was widely believed among our clients in Japan that MOF was deliberately trying to stop Princeton forecasts that they too did not like in retaliation for our forecast that the LDP would lose & MOF with it.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/04/conspiracy-or-just-one-step-at-a-time/

Quote from: Armstrong
Yes, the CIA wanted me to build a computer for them after our model predicted the collapse of Russia That the FT broadcast in advance on its front page of the second section. True I declined. It is also true that within 6 months PEI was attacked. I have a copy of the slide presentation prepared by the lawyers for Republic National Bank that outright lied misrepresenting their illegal trading as me to hide those losses from the Japanese when I owned the accounts – not the Japanese.

...

Safra then had to reduce his personal shares by $1 billion and agree to indemnify HSBC. Why? If the public got anything less, then they would have sued Republic/HSBC and the truth would come out. So Edmond took the haircut personally to prevent any lawsuit by shareholders.

I have the documents.

...

The Princeton office was raided and Socrates was unplugged and taken to a special lab in NYC located in the World Trade Center – the old Saloman Brother’s building. They turned it on and discovered it had self-destructed. They then in writing demanded I turnover the source code or PEI would be shut down. I said go ahead, you will never get the code.

So here you have evidence that this has nothing to do with pretend missing money. The US press ignored the simple fact that how could you get $1 billion out of a bank and nobody knows where it is? That is a 747 full of cash. Was I supposed to walk into the bank with a brown paper bag?

...

in reality the notes were in yen not dollars and now Republic only needs to pay $650 million but the yen remained the same. Then 30 days later, it is now $606 million. Owens handed HSBC $400 million in profits belonging to Princeton.

Amazingly, when it comes to the banks, suddenly the government lawyers understand the transactions were in yen not dollars. Did they release me? Of course not. They would have to then admit they were wrong from the outset.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/07/12/so-who-really-tried-to-blackmail-yeltsin-takeover-russia-nsa-cia-or-investment-bankers/

Quote from: Armstrong
Perhaps the number one question I always get about the ordeal I went through and the sheer chaos that surrounded everything, was just who really was behind the plot to blackmail the former head of Russia Boris Yeltsin to stop him from running for reelection in 2000 and hand-pick Boris Abramovich Berezovsky? It is true I even had a meeting with the US Attorney Office on the subject when they realized that Republic National Bank and Edmond Safra had set up even Bank of New York as the center piece in the plot. As the players that surrounded me have mysteriously died, hanged themselves, been imprisoned, released, just saying they were denied a fair trial without explanation as with the nurse that supposedly killed Safra, this wild plot is still the classic who-done-it that may not be solved until someone gets the secret files tucked away on this one.

We cannot leave out Edmond Safra’s own mysterious murder in Monaco (Death in Monaco) that took the fire company hours to reach being just 10 minutes away while his more than 20 bodyguards were all given the night off and reported bullets in his body with his nurse saying Russians dressed as ninjas showed up.

What I do know is there appears to have been a plot to take over Russia and that came from sources directly in Russia at the time. My case began September 13th, 1999 and Safra was killed December 3rd. Within a week the government moved to put me in contempt and stop my request for a Speedy Trial. It came out in court that bullets were left in my mailbox to warn me to shut up. But I was in the public spot light so they created a contempt and threw me in [prison without a trial] to suspend everything.

Suvy please don’t waste my time again with your laziness. You are younger than me with more free time to burn. And you are the student. Please respect that reality.
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Activity: 154
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98896

Quote from: me
@Suvy,
Well I have only been writing since years ago on Michael's blog about the need for decentralized systems and simulated annealing being nature's only known optimization method for dynamic systems. I have mentioned Taleb's Antifragility both in this blog and on my "blog" in the "Information Is Alive!" essay.

The more degrees-of-freedom in a system, the more granular adjustments to change can be.

You raise the fundamental natural quagmire that capital follows a power-law distribution, because the majority of people are contented to not devote their vocation to capital accumulation and the Iron Law of Collective Political Economics.

The way nature deals with this is by destroying (decaying) capital at a sufficient rate such that capital aggregation can't subsume innovation. When you have central banks that have been captured by the large capitalists, they attempt to violate this natural decay. They do fail in the end but not without great overshoot and dislocation since the process is a discontinuous event. For example, the capitalists can accumulate as much fiat and hard assets as they want, but this genre of capital is decaying and losing value in the fledgling knowledge age. Knowledge can't be financed, and thus can't be printed by central banks.

So we really don't have to do anything. Nature has been winning since the beginning of the dawn of time thus I doubt nature will lose this time around.

We don't like the waves of boom and bust that result from this epic battle between capital aggregation and nature's "it will grow wings and fly away", but nature never promised us a boring, smooth ride.

Relish the discontinuities. These are the time great fortunes are lost and made. I've been preparing.

In more concrete terms, I expect technological innovation on the concept of money as I have been alluding to decentralized crpto-currency. The world simply won't be able to agree on a global, centralized, digital, real-time retail digit fast enough any other way. The global monetary reset will come far too late to fulfill the need for a this by the high tech sector well before 2032. We will begin trading our knowledge decentrally. You can see the beginnings of this in terms of trade on social networks and for example smartphone apps. The 3D printers are coming. Etc.. I can't see it all, but I expect massive acceleration of this as we write this.

Note there will be fiat monetary reset for that old world sector of the economy, which will probably still be significant in relative size compared to the knowledge economy even by 2032 but small enough that prosperity has taken over and we can stop the wars that will occur between now and then.



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-99056

Quote from: me
Quote from: Jon
For current 51.6 year Private wave, sovereign debts all over the world are doing pretty good. I am not sure I understand what he means then.

The Private wave is a shift away from government. We can see governments being overthrown, riots, sovereign debt collapses already. Each downturn in the ECM (1981.35, 1989.95, 1998.55, 2007.15, 2015.75, 2024.35, 2032.95) will see greater contagion and the core economies will eventually be taken down. Each upturn (1985.65, 1994.25, 2002.85, 2011.45, 2019.05, 2027.95) will see a temporary deadcat bounce for government. After 2032 we get a waterfall capitulation so that we hit rock bottom and can begin a move back towards Public assets and trusting government—government will be much smaller percent of GDP by then. The early seeds of the failure of government began as early as the beginning of the sovereign bond bubble with peaking interest rates in 1981 (inflation due to baby boomers entering the work force), Japan's peaking in 1989, the institution of hedonics in 1994 in the USA to obscure the level of CPI inflation,  Long Term Capital Management fiasco that almost set off a global contagion in 1998, etc.. all were right on time as expected by the global ECM model. He also has country specific models which have different phases.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98551

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
...believe convicted felons on claims...

He did a plea bargain to get out of jail. He was never convicted with evidence. In fact, among other numerous anomalies in his favor, he even confronted the corrupt judge in his court showing proof the judge was changing the court record, and the judge couldn't deny it. You have a habit lately of making proclamations without sufficient understanding of the subject matter.

Quote from: Suvy
There’s always a tradeoff between precision and accuracy.

You apparently do not understand mathematically what the terms mean.

Precision is related to the standard deviation and accuracy is a function of the sampling rate and sampling interval, because the Shannon-Nyquist theorem informs us that aliasing error (i.e. loss of accuracy) occurs if we sample below twice the highest frequency and for less duration than double the longest-tail.

So precision is a function of the variability of the data set. And accuracy is a function of the sampling quality. Armstrong's model has sampled massive amounts of data from the entire recorded history of mankind. The precision of the model is dictated by nature. Apparently nature has some very precise cycles around the movement of international capital flows and the business cycle.


Quote from: Suvy
I agree with you on the US incarceration problem (especially who it targets). It’s largely a result of the drug war...

It wasn't until after the massive DHS grants following 9/11 (Federal Dept of Homeland Security) that so many local law enforcement departments started to obtain heavy artillery such as armored tank-like vehicles. And it is well documented (Gary Webb, Oliver North, etc.) that the drug war was another massive corruption involving the government, HUD, etc, but I won't detail that in this blog (please don't debate me on that minutiae here, email me if you want).

Quote from: Suvy
...but that’s got little to do the structural advantages of the US (primarily geographic, but others exist as well). No matter what idiot you’ve got running policy, you can’t screw up having the largest navigable waterway across the Greater Mississippi Basin or bordering two oceans on two different sides or having some of the world’s most fertile farmland in the world (Kansas).

Just look how the Perónists have bankrupted Argentina, once one of the richest countries in the world with a similar massive swath of fertile plains (they even have the tornadoes).

But you are way off the mark by targeting physical resources and transport. That is all very low value. We are in the fledgling knowledge age and all high value is created in high tech. The old resource based and industrial economy is peanuts and will become ever more so. So this NSA crap and now the drive to regulate the internet as a public utility is going to kill the high tech goose that laid the golden eggs. Did you notice India just orbited Mars with a project cost of only $74 million. Reality check your hubris.
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Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Isn't it nice that you have this thread to talk to yourself in?

It's like your own padded room!  

Very useful to contain your lunacy and prevent it from bothering the sane people.   Smiley

You choose to remain ignorant of the poll on this thread and that 46% voted in agreement.



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97706

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
None of that really matters now. The reality is that Russia is on the verge of financial collapse.

...

Also, we’re not headed towards World War III. I think we’re headed towards a bunch of Cold War-type scenarios and proxy wars. You’re seeing a containment policy on not just Russia, but China as well.

...

With the containment policy towards China, it’ll be Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Australia, and a few other countries against China. In the case of Russia, we’re seeing the lines being drawn. The line being drawn in Ukraine is a HUGE advantage for both the US and Europe.

...

Autocracy and authoritarianism doesn’t work over an extended period of time.

Suvy you pontificate without considering reality of history as a catalog of repeating outcomes.

1. The entire world is on the verge of economic collapse. Historically when countries implode economically, they start an external hot war to turn national disgust into patriotic sacrifice which is what we will see in those countries which are unified internally (e.g. Putin has 80% approval rating, Japanese and Chinese are still patriotic to the extreme of being xenophobic). The USA instead will fracture internally as the disagreement over socialism (Obamacare, police state, etc) reaches the boiling point.

2. As the global economy implodes, the price of oil falls, North America's fracking and oil sands become uneconomic (below about $75/bbl). One of the pillars of the USA remaining relatively stronger was its recent upsurge in fossil fuel production.

3. Russia and China are nuclear powers. Japan and Australia are not and the rest you mentioned have no military capability except India which has no incentive to enter a hot conflict with China. Russia has been flying their nuclear bombers close to USA's West Coast over the past year or so.

4. Russia and China are doing deals with countries all over the world. They both recently inked deals for example in Argentina.

5. The USA is now approaching a totalitarian regime (with its true nature as a police state to be more pronounced after 2015.75 as the USA economy starts to head down).

6. I have no idea what is your justification that wars need to remain cold? That was only the incentive while debt and global commerce were expanding. Now that everything turns down, the incentive to keep war muted is lost.



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97869

Quote from: me
Suvy, I agree with you that the USA was more diverse (not controlled by a few oligarchs) which made it more competitive. Unfortunately the socialism has taken over and the USA is losing the freedoms (to innovate) that made us the most competitive. As the USA economy turns down after 2015.75, the police state and socialism will become more prominent and start to drag even more severely on the economy and plundering the high tech sector that made the USA strong. For example, I guess you haven't been paying attention, e.g. Obama is ready to regulate the internet as a public utility using executive power to do so bypassing Congress.



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98048

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
“Suvy I already provided links on this page that showed the cyclic model since the 1980s has been accurately predicting events even a decade into the future If you are truly rational and believe in the scientific method”

Yea, methods like that are inherently unscientific. You can show me all the “evidence” you’ve got, but this is just backtested BS. There’s ZERO statistical validity to such nonsense.

Since Michael didn't accept my prior reply on your assertion of “ZERO statistical validity”, let me phase it in a more concrete manner. Armstrong claims he trained an A.I. model with $millions of data (or $100s of millions if inflation adjusted to today's dollar) that he acquired dating back from 1000s of years ago to present. He for example spent $10 million collecting ancient silver coins to construct an accurate chart of silver coinage during the Western Roman empire.

A.I. models are typically trained with a combination of methods including neural networks. A neural network is inherently a statistical model of the data it has been trained on.



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98288

Quote from: me
@Suvy & @Csteven,
Please tie this reply together with my other comments today. Although I agree the more acute economic adjustment will be in China (and Japan and Europe), going forward from that long-term China, Japan, and Asia will bottom and are on the way up, and the USA (and Europe) is systemically on the way down. The USA has an aging population and will eventually lose its high tech edge. And I also think there will be a massive brain drain out of the USA as the shakers and movers in the high-tech industry will jump ship as the NSA and Obama take control over the internet. I count myself as one who already did. I think there is coming shift where the incomes of the middle class of the developing world approaches critical mass especially as they start intertrading, e.g. the coming Asian Union free trade and employment migration zone starting 2015. The high tech sector is going to jump to greener pastures. China will correct (probably harder than Pettis' optimistic soft landing), then start moving up again probably within a decade or so, as the West falls over the cliff towards decadence. The new financial center of the world will move to Asia by or just after the global monetary reset by 2032.





http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98351

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
Anyone that uses that kind of precision on stuff like this is obviously spewing BS. The more complicated the model, the more quickly you lose precision. Anyone using that kind of precision for this kind of complexity has major red flags on their work.

Armstrong has pointed out that long-term predictions are actually much more accurate (less statistically noisy) than short-term ones[1].

I found the blog where he explained how he discovered the model and the statistical possibility being in in the 1-in-a-billion of the model being a random match.

I also found the blog where he explains the correlation between machine learning and density estimation in statistics.

[1] http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/12/the-long-term-is-not-spontaneous/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/17/bernankes-speech-at-the-ceremony-commemorating-the-centennial-of-the-fed-reserve-act/



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-96710

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
There’s one thing you forgot. Much of the debt has been securitized, so when one loan gets paid off, several others do as well. You need to take a look at the debt adjusted for this part of the financial system (both Steve Keen and Krugman talk about this, and Krugman is right on this occasion). I found the chart somewhere, but I can’t find it right now. It’s NOT the total debt/GDP (which runs at around 250% or so), but it accounts for the securitization–it should be around 170% or something around there.

Ah thanks. So perhaps that explains why I have seen a global total debt figure from Armstrong of $158 trillion while I've been citing the $227 trillion total debt figure I had read at a WSJ blog.



http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98542

Quote from: me
@Jon
I suppose each of us has some confirmation bias, myself included. I caution you on being married to one asset class, because it can cause you to be defiant of the market and lose your shirt.

Armstrong actually doesn't think its very likely that gold will go much higher than $5000. And I agree. Because for gold to go as high as you are predicting would require the world be plunged into a Dark Age. But in Dark Ages, gold loses its value and food becomes money. There is only so far you can go with hard money before society resets the monetary system to satiate and address the problem that was making gold move higher, or society is unable to do so and we go over the cliff into the abyss of another 600 year Dark Age where for example only rice was money in Japan. This is because velocity of money and thus GDP falls off the cliff when hard money is hoarded.

Also don't rule out crypto-currency. This could radically influence the equation of the future monetary system. I am working in that sphere (as well as continuing to program mainstream social media applications) and I know more about what is developing behind the scenes that is not public yet. The key to making a crypto-currency really matter ties in with giving it a reason to be adopted as a currency (i.e. high velocity) by common people. Bitcoin lacked that widespread reason, as well as having technological deficiencies. I think the entire internet model will change (and is underway).
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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.


Isn't it nice that you have this thread to talk to yourself in?

It's like your own padded room! 

Very useful to contain your lunacy and prevent it from bothering the sane people.   Smiley
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-98048

Quote from: me
Quote from: Suvy
There’s ZERO statistical validity to such nonsense.

You haven't studied the implementation of the ECM model so you have no way of knowing what statistical models are used. I haven't either, because it isn't open source (yet). But Armstrong has said astutely that all the economists are using statistical models with data that only goes back less than 100 years, so their models can't possibly be valid. That means he (after spending over a $billion in today money) on collecting data since Mesopotamia has found that that the correct statistics requires a very long sampling interval.

Quote from: Suvy
What I said is that it won’t be as difficult for the US as it will be for others (for many good reasons).

I guess you haven't noticed how much more developed the police state is in the USA (with a 99% conviction rate and paramilitized local "peace" officers) as compared to any where else, even communist China has a lower percentage of the population incarcerated.


http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97426

Quote from: me
@Jon
I agree Armstrong writes in disjoint blog posts which makes his theme incoherent to most readers.

You need to go to his ECM models page and understand that model first, so his disjointed blog posts can make sense.

2011 was the start of a 4.3 year turn up in the ECM which is currently in a 51.6 year overall Private wave.

2007.15, 2015.75, and 2024.25 will all be turns down in the ECM and will mean renewed contagion for government (Public) woes, getting worse each time. Until we finally reset the world monetary system and start anew in a 51.6 year Public wave starting 2032.
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Medium size corporate taxes are much higher in Asia than I thought:

http://business.inquirer.net/182452/ph-medium-firms-said-to-struggle-with-high-tax-rates

Quote
Of the Philippines’ total tax rate, 20.5 percent are profit taxes, 8 percent are labor taxes, while other taxes constitute the remaining 14 percent.

The nine other countries in the Asia Pacific with total tax rates higher than the Philippines were Palau (75.4 percent), Marshall Islands (64.8 percent), China (64.6 percent), India (61.7 percent), Micronesia (60.5 percent), Sri Lanka (56.6 percent), Japan (51.3 percent), Myanmar (47.7 percent) and Australia (47.3 percent), the latest report showed.

The Asia-Pacific average stood at only 36.3 percent. Globally, a standard company may have a total tax rate of 40.9 percent of profits, the report showed.

The significance of that is I expected Asia to outshine the West because of a lower tax burden. Asia will outshine the West because it has lower sovereign debt and statutory unfunded social welfare obligations, but what this information above tells me is that the more significant leap forward will be for the decentralized knowledge based economy which will be nearly untaxable once we complete the implementation of the anonymous internet.


Armstrong's model is being proven correct as the Philippines economy starts to turn down:

http://business.inquirer.net/182456/ph-seen-posting-balance-of-payments-deficit

Quote
The Philippines faces a full-year BOP deficit for the first time in a decade. The last full-year deficit was seen in 2004.

“The dominant factors affecting the BOP are external in nature, specifically the normalization of monetary policy in the United States,” Tetangco told reporters.

He was referring to the gradual reductions in and recent halt of the US Federal Reserve’s monthly asset purchases. Interest rates have been on the rise due to the end of these asset purchases, which had previously flooded financial markets with freshly-printed cash.

As a result, cash that flowed to emerging markets since the Fed program have started to reverse, returning to advanced markets like the United States.

The country’s BOP position is a summary of all its transactions with the rest of the world.

For 2014, the BSP now sees the Philippines posting a deficit of $3.4 billion, compared to the previous forecast of a surplus of $1.1 billion.

“This is mainly due to developments in the capital account,” Tetangco said.

Latest data from the BSP showed that at the end of October, the country posted net outflows of foreign portfolio investments totaling $1.1 billion, compared to the $3.6 billion surplus posted in the same 10-month period last year.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97710

Quote from: me
Suvy I already provided links on this page that showed the cyclic model since the 1980s has been accurately predicting events even a decade into the future. If you are truly rational and believe in the scientific method, then you must adjust your wrong assumptions to the reality that has been observed and start performing your own tests with the model to continue to verify it predicts the future or disprove it.

Most readers and people in the West believe war and pandemic can't touch them. The model says they are in for a nasty awakening over the next 10 years. Tell your assumptions about the nature of war to the headless and limbless corpses in Ukraine or Iraq.

You love to predict economic hardship for others but don't think the USA will be harshly affected. Tsk, tsk.


http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97707

Quote from: me
Resource scarcity is complete bull. We are moving into a higher tech knowledge based economy where resources are not the scarce asset. This changes everything in macroeconomics because knowledge can't be financed, so capital can't be aggregated.

Populations do come down when wealth increases, pandemics, and war, but they come back up again when those [conditions] abate.
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P.S. if the  ‘no’ votes are pertaining to the rise of the global police state and the need for anonymity, I can only sigh again soon. I was watching the NBA (i.e. Rome’s bread and circus, or the Roaring 1920’s socialite glitter & glee) and realized why most people today would again think it is ludicrous to claim such horrific outcomes as we approach the cliff.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97452

Quote from: me
Quote from: Jon
What he seems to be saying, if particular market coincided with his ECM model, then it is a proof that the model is correct. And if it did coincide? Well, the model is correct, it just means we are not looking at the “correct” market.

Real estate was the thing being pushed into a bubble by the government (Fannie Mae, Fed, etc). And this ECM is in a Private wave against government. You have to understand that in order to know which market to expect to coincide with the turn date[1].

Now Armstrong is speculating that Private assets such as gold and collectibles will also include USA real estate and stocks and they will continue to rise after the 2015.75 turn in the ECM model. He is observing for evidence of this “phase shift” as ithe calls it.


[1]
Quote from: me
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Why am I nearly always correct? Because I am an accomplished senior level programmer which means I have extremely accurate logic skills. I am also an accomplished bug finder and fixer, so it means I know how to hunt through complex data sets even when I don’t have the entire situation revealed to me. Also because (except in the recent years past where I tried to become a short-term speculator in precious metals), I generally discern what I can’t know and thus do not try to claim things I can not know with high certainty. Meaning I am humble and also do readily admit when someone points out a flaw in my logic or research.

As I argued to Martin Armstrong in email some months ago which is quoted on this forum, there is proof that Russia’s motive was not to annex countries and Armstrong is wrong and the Ukraine revolution and problem was instigated by the USA (skip to 14min in linked video and see Bush promised Gorbachev “NATO will not move 1 inch east of the former Berlin wall”) and Dick Cheney (with John Kerry) is still running foreign policy in Ukraine (skip to 10min in linked video). This is the geographic pathway that Russia had been attacked throughout history such as Napoleon. This is why Russia is now angry at the legacy of Gorbachev with Putin’s popularity rising to 80% since the start of the Ukraine crisis. Armstrong misses this key point in his analysis. Thus, Bush and Cheney are driving us towards World War 3. The smoking gun audio of Assistant Secretary of State explaining our manipulation in Ukraine.

35 year CIA Analyst Ray McGovern: Obama Will Lead US Into Nuclear Holocaust.

USA is an extra-constitutional state now and we no longer have a free [mainstream] press (skip to 8min 30seconds in linked video).
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The Movie Trailer is Out (about Armstrong)

http://vimeo.com/112432439

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJNEjq7I5Is


Quote from: Armstrong
I arrived in Amsterdam. It has begun. As I have stated, this film is not about my life, but about my battle against the market manipulators who have blackmailed government into bailing out their losses while they keep all the gains. When I objected to the seizure of the tapes I had made documenting all the market manipulations since they began they said that was absurd. NY banks did not manipulate markets. That was 1999. Today, the CFTC has been forced into investigating Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan for a Commodity Manipulation. I believe this film is causing some scrambling. It has reached blockbuster level in Germany. It will be appearing in 80 cities simultaneously next year.

The takeover of Wall Street began with the takeover of Salomon Brothers by the commodity house that made all the money against the Hunt Brothers back in the Crash of 1980. Within just 10 years, Salomon got caught with their hand in the cookie jar manipulating the US Treasury Auctions. Warren Buffet then comes to the rescue and his marketing firm has done a fantastic job in putting forward an image of a knight in shining armor.

From that takeover of Wall Street by the Commodity trading industry, Wall Street was assimilated into a very different trading culture. From that event onward, the real downside of this takeover of Wall Street has been the fact that it transformed the big money center banks into aggressive traders. Profits trading were instant – while lending money for long-term to further economic expansion became the less lucrative bet, even though that is what creates jobs (not government Hillary). Trading makes money which is instant, but lending long-term creates and economy. The banks quickly learned how to hand the losses to government threatening them with the inability to sell their bonds unless they were bailed out. That was the beginning of the end.

This film is about the battle I found myself in with the “club”. The schemes kept getting bigger and bigger. Takeover government and repeal Glass-Steagall was just the start. Take over Russia and control commodities was the lofty goal. Everything became a strategy and a game – the combination of monopoly and chess. They saw me as influential and if they could get me to join, they saw the dollar signs in their dreams. Get me to put out fake analysis and we will all get rich. That was not something that interested me. But they did this for the Dot.COM bubble and paid fines for putting out bogus research. That was why they kept trying to get me involved – eliminate the independent research and control the flow of info as does government.

The world was becoming just a pawn of finance. The fate of nations no longer mattered. Every single thing became just a trade and the way to create the “perfect trade” was to control everything – not figure out how to actually trade.

I was interested in figuring out what made the world tick. You cannot spend billions of dollars. That is for power-plays, it does not change your lifestyle. The most expensive house sold was just under $150 million. Even if you filled it with rare art, you would be hard pressed to spend $1 billion. So making billions is for playing the game of monopoly – not lifestyle. So I was just never interested in such nonsense. I needed mental stimulation. It was more challenging to figure out the game than to just play it mindlessly without purpose. I had more than enough to come and go as I pleased and it came from trading and analysis I could be proud of.

I have witnessed the demise of the industry and how it has taken us to the brink of total chaotic destruction that has resulted in a G20 meeting that shifts the burden of bank losses to the people without NOTICE. This culture then infected all banks as victims as well as government. Literally, the takeover of Salomon Brothers by PhiBro opened the Gates of Hell. Goldman Sachs then took over J.Aaron to compete. Life has never been the same ever since. This proprietary trading has now threatened the entire world economy and the future of everyone for its irresponsibility. That is why I agreed to do this film – nothing else. I too have a family and I will not be here forever to take defend them against this insanity.
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Smile
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I request we continue to delete our upthread posts on each reply as I have done, at least for as long as this sub-thread is of reasonable length. Hopefully we can reach agreement now.

I kindly request you to delete your prior posts upthread on this sub-thread of discussion as I have done also. So as to not clutter the thread, our entire discussion is quoted in this one post below.

anonymity is a myth

someone somewhere always knows

Actually as an expert computer scientist, I assert that is not true. I have explained that a high-latency redesign of Tor would be anonymous:

Anonymity: Death of the Stateless Web (a.k.a. “Tor Is Not Anonymous—Web Paradigm Shift Underway”)

You would be correct if you instead wrote, “if someone could correlate all the data in the world for infinite time, they could always know”.

being a mathematician i know full well there are no secrets, if it is anonymous it would not be long before it is not.

it is the same as saying the code is unbreakable

as the recent news on tor proves as well http://betanews.com/2014/11/19/new-report-claims-81-of-tor-users-can-be-identified/

You did not read the link I provided to you. In that link I explain that the reason Tor is vulnerable is because it is a low latency design. That exploit you linked to is well known to be caused by traffic analysis (confirmation) because of the low latency design. I have proposed how to make an improved Tor that is high latency and truly anonymous.

Please write down some math that you are using to justify your claim, so I can discuss with you in your mathematical perspective where we differ. I have some math capability also.

done deleted posts

read your post did not say much about the encryption

tor is vulnerable because it is mathematically encrypted ergo it can be mathematically unencrypted

not much to go into really, anonymity is achieved via encryption, encryption can be broken, yes a lot of resources required but it can still be done.

so if someone really wanted to see what was going on all they need is the resources, usually government/military.



the current project I am excited about at the moment is where electrical signals from the brain are being translated

e.g. if i think food the receiver reads the electrical brain signals I have at the time and translates this into the word food

This would defeat anonymity completely unless you are wearing funny hats.

I've done extensive thinking about the breakage of the encryption and that is why I favor Lamport signatures, Mceliece public key cryptography, and not using public key (i.e. using symmetric cryptography) as much as possible.

There is no reasonably trusted quantum computing resistant Diffie-Hellman key exchange, so I am thinking we can eliminate it from an improved Tor by sending a Nonce to the prospective relay encrypted with its public key, then the encrypted (in our public key) reply must include the Nonce. The entire reason Diffie-Helman is needed in Tor is because the prior relay hop could inject its only symmetric key instead.

All encryption will eventually be broken and I made this point in a long discussion (READ THIS LINKED POST!) on this forum with smooth about how all anonymity can eventually be broken ex post facto. But as I stated in my first reply to you, this requires the adversary save all the data. For example, a global national security PRISM adversary can’t save the data mixes we do offline.

This is why I am arguing to use only quantum resistant encryption for anonymity aspects and to use much larger key lengths than we think are necessary.

Note I will be cross-posting our excellent discussion to that thread I linked in my first reply to you.

Being able to read the brain’s thoughts could indeed make anonymity much more challenging, but we are at least a decade from that being something the authorities can realistically deploy and even then it will probably require they get proximity to your brain. Our physical bodies are going to become a burden. Hopefully by that time we can upload our brain to a computer, put our body into zombie state, continue thinking there on the computer, then download it back to biological brain copy later. In that way, we could side-step the authorities anew. You see technology is not asymmetric in support of socialism. We just have to be willing to find the solutions for liberty.

I hope I have inspired some libertarian readers!
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Cross-posting from other thread...

I trust my government a million times more than I trust my ISP. That is the bottom line for me.  

The point you are missing is that in a free market, you don’t need to trust your ISP as competition will provide you with options.

What you don’t believe or fail to understand is that regulatory capture of your government is precisely what stifles competition. This is what the quote from Eric S. Raymond about “asymmetric power” means.

So yes the monopolistic telcos are on their knees praying that you will trust the government more than the free market, because the more power you give to the government to regulate, the stronger their monopolies will become.

This has been proven over and over to always be the outcome in all of recorded human history. The mathematical reason was explained by Mancur Olson’s book, The Logic of Collective Action.

I don’t expect you to be able to wrap your mind around this, because the reason socialists are socialists is because they don’t have the IQ to reason rationally at this high level.

And evolution is at work (over and over throughout recorded human history since Mesopotamia) to cull the population of the low IQ fools (via the war, eugenics, genocide, rationing, and totalitarian megadeath that results from peaking socialism when it runs out of other people's resources to steal, ahem redistribute) so the human race can get smarter and advance knowledge. So sorry for you, you haven’t been able to grasp how to survive.
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http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-97210

Quote from: me
@Derivs
Quote
Quote
“I’m not familiar with Armstrong”

I think you would have needed to be in jail for a few years to know him personally. It’s been a long time since I have written a research paper, so someone needs to refresh my memory if there is a special way to footnote references by convicted fraudsters.

Armstrong agreed to a plea bargain after being held for 7 years on contempt-of-court, because he refused to hand over the source code of his computer model to the courts (the CIA wanted it).

You need to do some research. Armstrong is not a fraudster. He has laid out a lot of evidence and explanation in his blog about he was framed for the Republic Bank fiasco as a way to cover up the fraud at the NY money center banks.

Indeed statist academia won't allow you to cite the truth, they would rather pontificate in ignorant bliss.

Sorry Michael for this blunt comment. I will leave it at that. Enough of this about Armstrong. It is up to each reader to decide for themselves.
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hyperboria - next internet
Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? - NO
Thus do we need anonymity? - YES

But I think there will be ww3, but it will not lead to a mad max scenario.
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