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Topic: Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity? - page 11. (Read 102809 times)

newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
The governments are working together to try to end all avenues for anonymity on the internet, and even trying to close the door on bank secrecy Act and the use of unregistered SIM cards for mobile connections.

http://technology.inquirer.net/39890/bill-requiring-registration-of-prepaid-sim-cards-clears-house-body

However, as stated in that summary, the bill will be quite ineffective against criminals as anyone can get a fake photo id at CM Recto street in Manila, or other such copies of that service in other major cities in the Philippines. I suppose the bill will contain or be amended to contain requirements that the vendor of the prepaid SIM card snap a photo of the purchaser. It is going to take long time for them to get sufficient education and compliance of all the 1000s of vendors of SIM cards across the country. The only way they can accelerate this is to require that SIM cards only be sold by the actual cell network companies at their official branch offices. But the problem is those offices couldn't possibly handle the demand and the lines would be queued around the block. As well the constituents would complain about the inconvenience. Filipinos hate to exert extra effort. They habitually jay walk (even walking in the center of the highway towards oncoming traffic daring you to hit them) because they refuse to go the extra distance for the crosswalk.

Me thinks the powers-that-be are going to lose the battle against anonymity. Even if they ever did finally close all the avenues for unregistered connection to the internet, an improved Tor will come to market eventually.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
But if the western central banks continue to QE their sovereign debts and the direct or indirect recapitalization of the banks, why wouldn't the game go on indefinitely?

Imagine someone handed you a $trillion. How would you invest it such that you earn a return and your capital would be safely returned?

How efficiently does the money handed to large entities distribute into the economy? The metrics available are:

  • velocity of money; that is how fast money is changing hands in the economy
  • marginal utility of debt; that is the ratio of increase in real GDP per increase in debt

http://kwout.com/cutout/b/qy/zx/5az_bor.jpghttp://kwout.com/cutout/x/5h/48/pmv_bor.jpg

The above illustrates unarguably that the only way for central banks to create inflation would be to distribute money directly into the hands of spenders. The government is distributing money to constituents in the form of social welfare, but this does not increase exponentially. For example the COLA adjustments for benefits are typically below the actual rate of inflation.

ZIRP caused interest rates to decline globally because bond investors sought the arbitrage of higher yields in the developing world. This caused a bubble in the developing markets, but there is now an excess of capital in the developing markets evident by recent corporate bond offerings are denominated in local currencies to mitigate betting short against the dollar. That is excess in terms of what their economic structures can currently absorb at a given rate.

Excessive debt via ZIRP monetization collapses the economy because it redistributes capital from savers (that includes the most productive) to capital misallocation as illustrated by the charts of the metrics above. Eventually the marginal utility goes negative, thus the more QE the faster the economy implodes. Either the government dissolves itself by distributing hyperinflation directly to the constituents, or to sustain itself the government is forced to raise taxes and confiscate wealth as its tax base withers due to the aforementioned destruction of the economy.


If Kondratieff wave analysis is correct then we are perhaps 14 years post due for a major downturn. In this scenario the FED has artificially delayed/postponed this downturn first via artificially low interest rates leading to the housing boom and more recently doubled down with QE leading to our current artificial stock market boom.

But if the western central banks continue to QE their sovereign debts and the direct or indirect recapitalization of the banks, why wouldn't the game go on indefinitely?
[snip]

More of the same coming soon. Up next is probably a raid on government insured FDIC bank deposits...

Yeah and realize the system is a cancer eating itself. Nobody is in control. The corruption will expropriate (tax, confiscate, etc) and squander all private wealth that can't be hidden or secured out-of-reach of the system.

This is highly deflationary. QE was a transfer of wealth from producers to the corrupt. It wasn't inflationary. Thus velocity and marginal utility have collapsed.

We will soon enter a radically accelerated phase with much more extreme volatility, because the disequilibrium has been building since 2008.

The stock market boom is due to capital having no other place to go. Emerging markets have topped. Sovereign bonds are paying negative rates and can't go much lower (the marginal utility has gone negative on QE and additional debt), thus capital appreciation for sovereign bond investment is a poor risk versus reward. Europe and Japan are in big trouble. Municipal bonds are a huge default risk, since they can't print money to buy their debt. The USA stock market and corporate bonds are the only options available.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty


*raises hand*

No need, we already knew that.

That I think he was guilty of at most a crime, and of at least a completely idiotic fuckup of Mark Karpelean proportions? Wow. You can predict the future ever better than Armstrong.

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

You are incapable of studying the facts of the case.

No, I am uninterested in studying the facts, in a case involving a clearly insane and overconfident loony. There's a difference.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty


*raises hand* At the least this bit was an interesting read http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

I have not looked deeply into Martin Armstrong’s guilt or innocence. Honestly, I don't really care that much so lacking the time to research it I will defer judgment. I do however, have a major major problem with how Armstrong was put in jail for 7 years without a trial by jury. This form of judicial tyranny is not as rare as one would think. Here are some other examples.

Man serves 14 years for contempt of court for refusing to transfer money he claims he did not have to his ex-wife
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2009449357_apusjailhousemillionaire.html

Woman sentenced to just shy of a year in jail for talking back to a judge.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2548787/Woman-talks-way-spending-300-days-jail-contempt-court.html

Man sentenced to 20 years in jail for refusing to testify in a murder trial
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-10-07/news/ct-met-long-sentence-20111007_1_appeals-court-witness-murder-case

The common theme of all of these cases is that the individuals were placed in jail by a judge without a trial.
Just a refresher lets take a look at the 5th and 6th amendments to the US constitution.

Fifth Amendment
nor shall any person .., be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.

Sixth Amendment
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, … and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense.

It is very dangerous when the supposed enforcers of the constitution are themselves ignoring/failing to acknowledge the protections granted by the constitution.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/10/it-is-now-a-felony-to-tape-the-police-abuse-in-illinois/

Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty


*raises hand*

No need, we already knew that. You clearly displayed your ignorance upthread.

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html

Quote
He was accused of Ponzi fraud and the purveyor of the notoriously unvaluable "Cresvale Bonds" that besotted Japanese corporate investors and populated their portfolios, much to their eventual chagrin.

What they don't tell you is that everything was hedged but the court appointed trustee destroyed all the hedges and stole $400 million of value from Princeton.

You are incapable of studying the facts of the case.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty


*raises hand* At the least this bit was an interesting read http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 1373
No. Way before 2020. Even before 2000. I watched the movie way before 2000.   Grin
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Grand Jury Does not Indict Cop Who Murdered Eric Garner — But the Man Who Filmed It

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/04/grand-jury-does-not-indict-cop-who-murdered-eric-garners-but-the-man-who-filmed-it/



Everything is a conspiracy


HERE COMES THE RIOTS... (they will be chanting this rap song)

Rob Hustle - This is what happens when you call the cops

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlY9C6pzxKc
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Cross-posting from the "Economic Devastation" thread, where CoinCube is also posting the same discussion as he did upthread.

If you wish to do meaningful economic analysis you need to start with meaningful numbers.  If you are starting your analysis with so called "GDP" measured in "fiat" by, uh, agencies..  well..  you got nothing to go on.  Bullshit from the start.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/02/25432/



Quote from: Martin Armstrong
This forecast is based upon our proprietary index 1900=Par. The reason is simple. In 1985 the Euro did not exist. Therefore, how they patched that index we have not looked at carefully. It may exceed the 1985 high depending on its mix. In our index, it extends back much further and is far more comprehensive. You can see that the 1985 high is no longer a spike isolated high. We are flattening out the pattern and this warns of a rally. We are just the prettiest of the three ugly sisters – Japan – Europe – USA.  On their index, the low was 1992 compared to ours was 1995 which was the high in the yen against the dollar prior to this deflationary rally in recent years. The 1995 low was a retest of the highs of the Great Depression. This is the same general testing pattern we should see in gold – the retest of the 1980 high of $875.

Hashman, Armstrong is legit. He had even people collecting data from the archives of newspapers around the world, he spent $10 million in the 1970s to collect ancient silver coins so he could build the only detailed accurate chart of silver money of the Western Roman Empire. He claims he has spent over $1 billion (inflation adjusted) on data for his machine learning model of the global economy. The machine decided that international capital flows are what drives the economic shifts of the nations.

Considering how accurate his model as been (predicting events to the day, decades in advance), I believe him. You have no clue, until you dig. Read the entire Mad Max thread and bring yourself up to speed. Or don't. I don't care.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Must read:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/04/the-euro-crisis-to-spread-to-a-world-crisis/

I should keep an eye out for the possibility that Europe could bounce until 2014.675. I need to search for facts that can tell me how long this bounce is likely to last. I don't want to be too early again, as I was on China last July 2012.

As I've been expecting, looks like we will get that a deadcat bounce in capital fleeing Europe and developing markets into the USA, which may put a temporarily top on the USA equities. Safe haven bond yields in Europe are increasing (exodus from safe havens) and US Treasury yields are declining (from recent dramatic rise) which is a combination of capital coming out of USA equities taking a breather, capital coming out of safe haven European bonds, and lower PPI placing doubt on Fed's Sept. taper.

...

Remember on Exter's Inverted Pyramid, that US federal reserve notes are at the bottom just above gold. Patience goldbugs, patience...

Armstrong is not a prophet. He is a scientist who created a model based on back testing all data since Mesopotamia and forward testing astoundingly precise correct predictions of the model since the 1980s. You really better click that link and review the facts on his model’s performance record. I don’t understand why any scientist would assert Armstrong is not applying the scientific method. The computer discovered the cyclical pattern from the historical data, not some numerology invented on a whim.

The image you displayed above is for the global turn from a Private to Public wave...
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
Seems everyone is using that statement about Armstrong's computer being self-aware to discredit him.

There are two interesting issues surrounding Mr. Armstrong.

1) That he was held in jail without being charged or convicted of a crime for seven years by a judge for being in "contempt of court"
2) His claim (to date unverifiable) that he has perfected or at least vastly improved on Kondratieff Wave analysis via computer modeling.

The first issue is simple judicial tyranny. It should bother any US citizen that someone can be held in jail for seven years without being charged, tried, or convicted of a crime. However, I am most interested in Armstrong's claim to have perfected Kondratieff Wave analysis.  

I would note that Armstrong is far from the first to promote the use of very long term cyclical modeling of the economy. Modeling of this type can be traced back to Nikolai Kondratieff who identified four stages of cyclic behavior and identified the as spring, summer, autumn and winter. Kondratieff calculated that a complete cycle or wave lasted for approximately 53 years. He published his theory in 1925 in his book "The Major Economic Cycles". Kondratieff overlaid his wave on world history and projected it forward.



Kondratieff also noted that those same 53 year economic cycles could be relied upon to mark major world conflicts. Below is the 53 year war cycle that was derived from his work and nestled within that a 17.7 year war cycle.






The best discussion of Kondratieff Wave analysis that I have come across was published by Grant Williams in his superb article The Consequences of the Economic Peace
(Note clicking the link will prompt you to sign up for the newsletter this can just be closed to proceed to the article)

So what happened to Mr. Kondratiev? He was accused by the soviets of being a member of a "Peasants Labour Party". Convicted as a "kulak-professor" and sentenced to 8 years in prison. In September 1938 during Stalin's Great Purge, he was subjected to a second trial, condemned to ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world and executed by firing squad on the same day the sentence was issued.
 
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: why sovereignty for Scotland would fail even in a free market
From:    AnnoyMint
Date:    Fri, November 28, 2014 6:59 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I didn't explain well in a way that Martin can understand from the
perspective of international capital flows.

Martin thinks that if for example Scotland could vote for sovereignty,
then it could be a safe haven for and receive a huge influx of capital. He
thinks this could lead the way back towards freedom and back from the
cliff-towards-the-abyss of oppressive governance we are facing and
approaching.

What Martin fails to factor into his analysis is that there isn't enough
investment opportunity in Scotland to absorb that capital and thus it
would end up as a huge bubble that would egress and collapse on itself,
destroying Scotland. This is what I mean about the old world economy
doesn't have enough economy-of-scale for nations that go it alone.

The global economy is bifurcating splitting into the old economy of hard
resources and industrialization which is of very low relative marginal
profit compared to the fledgling knowledge age economy paradigm shift
which is going to take over the world. The knowledge age grows
decentralized and doesn't have any borders, so economy-of-scale is not a
problem. Also the knowledge age doesn't require much MONETARY capital, because
knowledge is basically individual innovation (you need KNOWLEDGE capital). Basically you need a few
guys in a garage tinkering. Throwing more money at them won't produce a
better or faster result. Often the more money a start up has, the less
efficient they become due to the Mythical Man Month.

So the old world economy has no choice but to form alliances to try to
sustain itself in the face of the knowledge age which is so much more
profitable and lean. The majority of the population is not ready for nor
capable of jumping into the knowledge age, well especially the old people
in the West. Oxford did a study that concluded that 47% of all jobs would be
replaced by automation before 2032. India just orbited Mars with a measily $74 million budget.
The innovative youth are in the developing world. The future is there.

Martin with all his political writings is really wasting his time on the
old world economy. If he was smart, he'd spend his time creating
technology to push the knowledge age forward faster. All that political
talk is as inefficient as the old world economy is. It is for the old
people to waste their time ranting about in trailer parks.

Those who can’t build, talk:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3514

Quote from: me
One thing I can agree with is whether by design or not, the nation-states
are being fractured internally and reduced to such chaos that they won't
function with any sufficient economy-of-scale without regional integration
and discipline (order). This old world economy is orthogonal to the
fledgling knowledge based economy, the latter can scale decentralized but
the former can not.

The global economy is bifurcating as I had outlined in my seminal essays
and which CoinCube themed "Economic Devastation" which became a prominent
thread on bitcointalk.org.

Quote from: anonymous
The higher echelon globalists' objectives in the Ukraine are the same as
being displayed all over the world, which is Balkanization i.e. fracturing
of nation states in the move towards regional government (for example Iraq
is divided into three regions in the elites' Greater Middle East Project
map).
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Armstrong's miscalculation on the global elite
From:    AnnoyMint
Date:    Thu, November 27, 2014 10:00 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

One thing I can agree with is whether by design or not, the nation-states
are being fractured internally and reduced to such chaos that they won't
function with any sufficient economy-of-scale without regional integration
and discipline (order). This old world economy is orthogonal to the
fledgling knowledge based economy, the latter can scale decentralized but
the former can not.

The global economy is bifurcating as I had outlined in my seminal essays
and which CoinCube themed "Economic Devastation" which became a prominent
thread on bitcointalk.org.

> The higher echelon globalists' objectives in the Ukraine are the same
> as being displayed all over the world, which is Balkanization i.e.
> fracturing of nation states in the move towards regional government
> (for example Iraq is divided into three regions in the elites' Greater
> Middle East Project map).
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Raise Your Hand Idiot Reader If You Claim Armstrong Was Guilty
From:    AnnoyMint
Date:    Thu, November 27, 2014 5:01 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

A compilation of information about Armstrong's case:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9666280

Also you may find my other posts recently in that same thread to be very
lucid and helpful. I also suggest Armstrong can learn something (at least
about how to communicate more unambiguously and also substantive points
I've added) from reading how I dissect and augment.

I agree with Armstrong on most points and of course have explained his
model (more lucidly than Armstrong does) to mainstream economists such as
Michael Pettis recently.

However the one remaining significant disagreement I have with Armstrong
is that Armstrong thinks that the NY Club banksters are the extent of any
global network that could have aims on directing the final outcome of
coming global crisis towards a global NWO monetary unit and governance.
Armstrong saw behind the curtain the political and regulatory capture
corruption, but the globalists sit at a higher level of abstraction that
Armstrong would never be able to correlate from his data. They are much
more sophisticated than these goons at the grunt bankster level. Their aim
is simply supranational control over finance. They understand, "I care not
who makes the laws if I control the money supply", because "he who owns
the gold makes the rules".

And Armstrong thinks it is impossible to have a global agreement about
certain aspects of governance, such as harmonization of international
trade and finance. He is going to end up very wrong on this. Mark my word.
I hope he lives long enough to see which of us was correct.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=6537&cpage=1#comment-1309818

Quote from: me
Eric, were you born yesterday?

The militarization of the police will not be allowed to be challenged nor be brought to the light of a public trial.

Fivethirtyeight.com published a statistic: in 2010, US attorneys prosecuted 162,000 cases, and only 11 times did a grand jury NOT return an indictment. If a grand jury does not return an indictment, the prosecutor didn't want them to.

There is no obligation to present all the evidence because the Supreme Court has ruled that the Grand Jury is NOT entitled to all the evidence, since the trial jury will correct any deficiencies. There should have been an indictment and then let the PUBLIC see all the evidence. Hiding this incident in such a manner will NEVER satisfy not merely the black community, but the entire world. The worst of the worst is that the Grand Jury proceedings are secret. No judge is present at the proceedings which are led by a prosecutor who is routinely pro-government. The target “defendant” has no right to even be present his case or to be informed of the proceedings secretly being conducted behind the scenes. There is no right to a lawyer in the Grand Jury. Among the legal community, Grand Jury indictments are considered a JOKE and the typical phase one hears among lawyers concern the rules are so one sided, the government could indict a “ham sandwich”.

Surely you will censor my post as always, even though you promised I was unbanned the last time I corrected you. I post on your blog roughly every 6 months now, so why can't you handle [the] intellectual challenge?

P.S. It is expected that those with a low IQ can't comprehend why there is no inconsistency between the above and my other post on Ferguson.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Any reader who thinks we don't have a totalitarian police state in the USA, should try to explain away Armstrong's well documented, egregious case. Don't forget that the USA can now legally send the military after you and "make you shut up" without any due process nor habeas corpus.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/09/indefinite-detention/

Quote from: Armstrong
So when the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on, they realized they would lose. You have to at least charge someone. Now, there was not even a charge. Therefore, I was released to prevent the Supreme Court from ruling against them. What did they do then? They used the terrorist nonsense as the excuse to now indefinitely imprison anyone at any time without even charging them, lawyers, or a right to trial. The rumor is they used Lindsey Graham threatening him because he is gay and if he did not strip Americans of all rights, he would be exposed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ni-nPc6gT4

Now a journalist Chris Hedges and several others sued the Obama Administration on the grounds of it being unconstitutional to indefinitely hold citizens as they did to me without charges, lawyers, or a right to a trial. Judge Katherine Forrest agreed it was unconstitutional and issued an injunction to prevent the government from doing so. This was immediately appealed by the Obama Administration for they are really indistinguishable from George Bush when it comes to expanding government power and destroying the Constitution. The Obama Administration appealed to the higher court – where? Second Circuit Court of Appeals of New York. That court, naturally with the speed of a bullet, instantaneously issued a temporary stay on the injunction allowing the government to indefinitely detain anyone it desires.

The notorious Second Circuit, perhaps the most anti-constitution court in the USA, will make the decision. The way this goes, if they side with the government, you can appeal to the Supreme Court but they take only perhaps 100 out of 10 thousand petitions. If the government lost, whenever they appeal, they are normally granted the right to be heard by the Supreme Court. So if the Second Circuit sides with government, the burden is then on the citizen to show why this case should be heard.

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me
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