Topic: Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity? - page 14. (Read 102789 times)

But, despite the decline in price, adoption has actually been increasing drastically, compared to previous years, and possibly thanks to things like BitPay and Coinbase, which are reinforcing network effects. Many believe that the decline in price is actually precisely due to increased adoption and increased use of bitcoin that used to be hoarded, but is now spent more easily and frequently, with the end result of more of it being dumped on the market. It doesn't seem like it will be hitting $150, either, though we still have two more months to go.

So, it looks as if your adoption prediction was wrong, and price prediction is in the right trend, but may still be missed exactly, but with the reason behind the price decline being wrong too.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-94338




http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/01/29/8797/
http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/2006/06/economic-confidence-model.html





http://thechive.com/2012/03/08/something-is-rotten-in-the-denver-airport-25-photos/










http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skull_and_Bones



http://www.businessinsider.com/skull-and-bones-alumni-2011-2?op=1

Anonymity has been bitcoin's luring factor ever since so we need to keep it.

You seem to be a highly skilled software engineer. How does this strike you?

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

CoinCube,

Armstrong clarified that the mostly likely date for the new monetary system is 2024.35. Also he said the technically highest price for gold by 2032 is $24,000 (not a prediction, just the highest it could go):

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8621544

Key is to understand this about the 8.6 year business cycle waves in his ECM:

CoinCube, here is what Google finds on the first page of search results for "Is Armstrong a charlatan?":

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=16401848#post16401848

http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/78KxR#_loginLayer_1415414038552

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/11/china-europe-and-optimal-currency-zones/#comment-93904

I know this is very important to you and others because you have financial issues which are affected by the timing.

So let me help you. You don't understand. The pressures have been building since 2008 for example the developing world (except China and Russia) is short the dollar with massive corporate loans in dollars:

http://suvysthoughts.blogspot.com/2014/08/impact-of-qe.html?showComment=1415217892059#c2003627059754047022

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9198103

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9374122

While dollar is appreciating as the rest of the world moves back to the dollar since the rest of the world has peaked on the bounce from 2008 and is headed down. Thus a massive global short squeeze is underway.

Also Abenomics has shifted Japan from an inward carry trade to outward bound carry trade which will drive the dollar up massively.

The contagion struck very quickly in 2008 after the pin was pricked on time in early 2007 as predicted by the ECM model. So we the next contagion in 2016 is going to see radically increased volatility as these pressure cookers erupt.

How about the fact that I started selling silver in the mid-$30s and totally dumped in the high $20s, because of Armstrongs explanation that the ECM turned in 2011 and that capital would first rush back into the USA and dollar before a renewed sovereign debt contagion after 2015.75?

My goldbug friends are still holding now with silver at $15 as I warned them.

Then we have Bitcoin which I (Anonymint) predicted (in this forum numerous times reiterated) would decline from $1000 to $150, based on the fact that adoption was declining due to take over by Coinbase, Bitpay, etc (losing network effects) and because all Private assets will align and move down for a bottom in 2015.

I was reading him in 2012 when he predicted the USA stock market would continue up to make a double or triple before 2015.75. The model is working extremely well.

Yet you claim Armstrong predicts nothing.


I presented you with data and analysis of the data in my prior post and on the prior page of this thread which is independent of Armstrong.

Also for you to assert that Armstrong has no data is just incredulous. You have been too lazy (or busy) to actually determine what data he has or doesn't have. If you are serious, you will contact Princeton Economics and pay some money to get the proof you need.

I guess for example spending $10 million to collect ancient coins so he could accurately construct a silver chart for the Roman empire, is not data to you. I have seen the chart on his blog. Are you claiming the chart is a fraud?


I guess you've never loaded a file in a newer version of a software in order to export an image file?

I guess you fail to appreciate that this man is digging up archives that could be retrieved after everything was taken from him by the government.


That report was sent to him by a reader who was at the conference. There are also numerous posts on his blog from readers who report being at the 1998 conference.

If you are serious, why don't you spend some money to attend his next conference and go ask the attendees.

Google can't find a lot of complaints where people are able to show that Armstrong is a charlatan.


You don't see the word "perhaps"? A prediction made 29 years ago which has pretty much been spot on in terms of the next leg beginning on 2011 (that is when gold peaked and Europe/Japan/China began their descent) and the word "perhaps" on thinking about the new monetary system that will follow.

The ECM doesn't time the new monetary system. It only times the shifts in the Public vs. Private waves.

The "perhaps" is speculation from Armstrong in terms of interpreting the effects of those shifts. As we've gotten closer, he has refined those interpretations.


He has since decided to open source it. Sorry but if you are going to comment meaningfully, you will need to spend more than a few hours and actually read his blog from start to finish as I have.


Well I know who is going to end up the fool. Simply put, you don't have enough money to be worth his time to convince you. If you had enough money, you would already have the proof you need.

---

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/idfa-film-festival-the-forecaster/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/the-movie-debut-amsterdam-november-22nd-at-largest-film-festival/



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/07/gold-falling-from-grace/





http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/06/pound-v-euro-should-britain-just-leave-is-the-euro-a-doomed-currency/

I agree that the opinion expressed above is absolutely nothing more then my gut feeling. Never said it was anything more. I freely admit that I do not have hard data to back it up. However, as far as I can tell neither does our friend Mr. Armstrong.

I read all the links including the linked "proof" and find it simply unconvincing. Armstrong's table of predictions presented
here makes it seem as though he made all these predictions in the 1985 World Economic Conference. However, that chart of predictions looks to have been made using a modern version of powerpoint.

When I try to find actual documented predictions from 1985 I can't find anything independent ie not published by Armstrong himself. Even Armstrong's own self published proof from 1985 is less than breathtaking.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Princeton-Economics-Correspondence-1985.pdf


Ok kinda sorta maybe. But a new global monetary system in just over a year? That does not seem too probable right now and time is rapidly running out.

Sorry but the more I look at Armstrong the less convinced I am. Armstrong claims his data and predictions come from his proprietary computer model.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/


However, he states he will never share the source of his predictions or his methodology with us.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/13/open-source-perhaps-the-real-curse/


Armstrong is definitly interesting though. I agree with his article about the importance of of capital flows and his prediction that US stocks are going to do better then others in the short term. He is reportedly writing a book and I will buy that as long as its reasonably priced. He is interesting enough that I have kept an eye on his webpage over the last several months. Nevertheless I stand by my claim that he is a prophet or soothsayer if you prefer that word.

Mr. Armstrong claims he has a personal link to a self-aware computer which he is using to predict the future. He refuses to share his methodology with us and we just have to take his word for it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I just don't see it here.

I am surprised that you as an INTJ would posit such without any factual basis at all. It would have been more logical for you to say you don't have any data but your gut feeling is such.

Any way, real analysis of the data on QE should shock the fuck out of you. Make sure you click that link.

 

Armstrong is not a prophet. He is a scientist who created a model based on back testing all data since Mesopotamia and forward testing astoundingly precise correct predictions of the model since the 1980s. You really better click that link and review the facts on his model’s performance record. I don’t understand why any scientist would assert Armstrong is not applying the scientific method. The computer discovered the cyclical pattern from the historical data, not some numerology invented on a whim.

The image you displayed above is for the global turn from a Private to Public wave.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/



Please understand that the model is out-of-phase for different sectors.



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/11/will-the-usa-also-break-up-into-regions/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/



The Private wave will continue until 2032 and private assets will not likely peak in price until then:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/28/cycle-inversion-staging-ground-for-2032/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/16/commodity-prices-into-2032/

Along the way of moving from Public assets (e.g. sovereign bonds) to the 2032 peak in the move to Private assets (e.g. gold, cryptocurrencies, off the grid real estate, Corporate bonds, stocks), there will come a point where the confidence in sovereign bonds breaks and the stampede into Private assets will accelerate.

Note how the move into Private assets really accelerated with the dot.com bubble, then the commodity and gold bubbles (which peaked temporarily in 2011 due to QE which was predicted by the ECM model as you see it turned back up from 2011 to 2015.75). So QE was able to kick the can down the road and keep the sovereign debt alive a little bit longer, but as I showed on the prior page of this thread, this was at the cost of driving global total debt-to-GDP north of 313%.

Thus 2015.75 is the ETA in the model for the next downwave of the sovereign debt contagion as it continues to succumb to the rising Private wave. And this next contagion in 2016 is going to be an order-of-magnitude worse than 2008 and it will also be qualitatively different. See the first link in this post for the detailed analysis on that.

Note that means Private assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies won't move up again until after 2015.75. Note the stock market had been correlated with Public assets, but it may now be undergoing a likely phase transition and if so it will shift to align as a Private asset and continue to move up after 2015.75.

Btw, the ephemeral resurgence of the Public sector from 2020 to 2024 (before the final phase transition to the blowoff peak in the Private wave) should scare the fuck out of you, because that will be the governments lashing out with war.

I hope you also noticed his model predicts a global pandemic in full swing by 2019:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/31/ebola-virus-the-next-plague-due-2019/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/01/the-first-ebola-case-appears-in-the-us/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/03/will-the-demise-be-plague-or-economics/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/04/ebola-the-next-plaguepandemic/

Again I reiterate, you will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.

Be careful about calling things too early. Personally I don't think things will collapse by 2016 it is just too soon for collapse.
There is plenty more "dry power" QE to be thrown at the world economy.Confidence in central banks is not yet broken and I doubt it will be by 2016.



I think you posted this picture up thread somewhere or I saw it after following one of your links. I am remain skeptical of Armstrong being a big skeptic of prophets in general. Nevertheless, the time frame here 2033 seems more realistic to me.

I can see the populace starting to lose faith after the next 19 years are filled with a full generation of QE. However, if the economy takes a dive in 2016 I think we will just see QE 5 and kick the can a little farther down the road.



“All censorships exist to prevent anyone from challenging current conceptions and existing institutions. All progress is initiated by challenging current conceptions, and executed by supplanting existing institutions. Consequently, the first condition of progress is the removal of censorship.” - George Bernard Shaw (Socialist and founding member of the Labor Party)

I smile with a sense of achievement when socialist pigs throw hissy fits.

Can I just add that this thread has had 36,000 views - a fair amount by the OP's alter ego's I'll grant you, but still.

And, when all is said and done, its mostly a self indulgent, vacuity posing as metaphor, derivative of shite - constantly being bumped by the OP, or whoever the fuck the OP is trying to pass himself off as this week.

How many newcomers have viewed this thread and decided that if this is the level of discourse on the premier bitcoin forum then they had better think twice before parting with their fiat ?

Deactivate his account ?   Can someone please ban the fucker as a matter of urgency ?

How to deactive my Bitcointalk account? - and I quote,

            "I have sent a private message to theymos asking him to deactive forum account.....I feel I will be of greater service when I am not talking. I've said enough. I am just repeating myself now.

I kindly ask the forum owners to respect the discipline I wish to place on myself."

I agree with you by suggesting you concentrate on your highly informative blog - and you call me "Mr.Socialist Pig" ? WTF ?

Not as extreme as Mel Gibson's movie. Expect something similar to 1929 and WW2 was Mad Max in my opinion, but with much more State control in the USA (see below for reason):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmfaKT0_frE#t=92s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwvDBeP9HkE

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/04/judges-are-free-to-take-your-liberty-for-anything-didnt-cut-your-lawn-jail-time/

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=riots+in+China

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=riots+in+Europe

The reason why is before the collective society could afford FDR's New Deal, but this time we are bankrupt so these sort of socialist deals are going to result in hardship (state rationing via Medicare, Obamacare, 57 million on food stamps, etc.) which will lead to more rioting and spirals into uncontrollable chaos.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/15/pentagons-1033-program-is-preparing-for-war-against-the-civil-population/


Daniel in the Bible predicts the time based on the Abomination of the Desolation, based on historical events such as the Holy war in 1967 (google can help you find the detailed calculations). Now we have all the signs as reported by NASA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9euK-koV-8k

True, I was. I thought the scenario was "MadMax". That's about as extreme as it gets! Although a more realistic post-apocalypse movie is "The road". That is a depressing movie and a chillingly real look at life in a dying world.

You are thinking only in terms of dipolar extremes. There are many gradients of economic collapse scenarios that are less extreme yet extremely disruptive to our lives.

You will experience economic collapse in 2016. 100% guaranteed.



Mr. Socialist Pig, I will write what I want, where I want. You may do the same. Sorry you don't control the individual. If you did, we would all die because the end game of centralized control is megadeath.

If it came to this, your problems would all be solved... by your death.
The ammo would run out within a year, so would the food. Assuming it is a worldwide loss of civilized society, billions would starve. The only monies that would matter are food and slaves. I can't see this happening by 2020, but if we have a nuclear exchange, it could look like this in a week or two.