Is your win a function of luck or how much you know a sports? - page 3.

Doan9269

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Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

Yes on several occasions, we may make guesses base on the game involved, this does not means whether we are going to lose the game hundred percent or win as well, in gambling, it is not also by having the experience that makes a winning come through, we can accept the two altogether that we should be experience and then have the luck coupled together, when we are gambling, we cant predict whether to win or not, we only see what comes after the game over the bet we made.

irsykes

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sports betting experience when digesting the speculation that is obtained also has not made luck. throughout sports betting there will definitely be where we slip not right. but I think most sports gambling players mostly win if they really understand the situation of the team, club with the opponent playing. bet enough to add ammunition to bets gradually

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 02, 2024, 05:45:21 AM

I agree with what @alani123 mentioned: realistically, sports betting relies heavily on luck. No matter what analysis you read or conduct, or even if you're a self-proclaimed expert, there's no accurate way to predict a match's outcome. I'm generally placing bets on football and occasionally basketball; I'm not too much of a sports person in general, and I haven't bothered with anything else.

My knowledge is pretty limited, but I've had my fair share of luck in the Euro 2024 tournament, and I've placed random bets as well. I believe we've all done it at some point; it's not that big of a deal, provided that you don't make it a habit. Sometimes you'll win, and sometimes you'll lose. As I mentioned earlier, luck is the most vital parameter. The main reason I'm not actively participating in the 2024 Olympics is because I have zero knowledge of the majority of the sports; thus, I find it too risky to go on a blind betting spree.

You shouldn't place bets blindly, no matter how much weight the luck factor has in betting. I believe that analysis and knowledge of players tip the scales in favor of the gambler. And even if the share of luck is very large, you can win if you understand sports.
Even if the chances are 45 against 55 percent - this is already a good result in the long run.
In slots, luck plays a completely decisive role, and the player's skills have no effect. That's why I don't like slots.

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Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.

I have not tried this in real games that involves using money but would want to know if anyone has ever tried it before.

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

Well, your luck does work out sometimes even in sports betting, but in general, you can't depend on luck all the time because you can't get all the guesses right all the time and you will start losing more bets as you continue. If you had tried the same thing the next day, you would see different results for sure, but if you were making bets after knowing the sides and understanding which player or team has a higher chance of winning, you would have a higher winning average.

So sports betting is definitely different than gambling games because gambling games require no knowledge or experience for you to win, but when it comes to sports betting, you can only stay profitable in the long run if you have enough knowledge about the sport you are making your bets on.

rodskee

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it is a combined function mate .

Luck with knowledge is always the best for the outcome .

Ultegra134

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I agree with what @alani123 mentioned: realistically, sports betting relies heavily on luck. No matter what analysis you read or conduct, or even if you're a self-proclaimed expert, there's no accurate way to predict a match's outcome. I'm generally placing bets on football and occasionally basketball; I'm not too much of a sports person in general, and I haven't bothered with anything else.

My knowledge is pretty limited, but I've had my fair share of luck in the Euro 2024 tournament, and I've placed random bets as well. I believe we've all done it at some point; it's not that big of a deal, provided that you don't make it a habit. Sometimes you'll win, and sometimes you'll lose. As I mentioned earlier, luck is the most vital parameter. The main reason I'm not actively participating in the 2024 Olympics is because I have zero knowledge of the majority of the sports; thus, I find it too risky to go on a blind betting spree.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on August 02, 2024, 05:06:35 AM

I can say that whenever I make a prediction without placing a bet, I am correct most of the times. I dont know how to explain it, but I think many of you also have noticed that. When we make a prediction of something just randomly, just for fun, we often make a correct prediction. I think I am rather good at prediction UFC main or big fights outcomes. Often I can give a reasonable explanation why and how one guy will beat other. However, my "prediction meter" isnt 100% correct, so I will say that it is more about luck in my case.

Sometimes these predictions end of being accurate because there were no personal sentiments and bias involved. Most people are actually good in analysing sports and can tell the history of a particular sport and the players without stressing about them. But they do not do well when they place bets base on what they already know. This is because over the years they have developed a personal interest in a particular team or player and might be tempted to allow their personal interests to influence their decisions when making predictions. Whenever I am not objective in my decision making process, my predictions are barely accurate and I believe this is a major cause of failure for most gamblers too.

TopTort777

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I can say that whenever I make a prediction without placing a bet, I am correct most of the times. I dont know how to explain it, but I think many of you also have noticed that. When we make a prediction of something just randomly, just for fun, we often make a correct prediction. I think I am rather good at prediction UFC main or big fights outcomes. Often I can give a reasonable explanation why and how one guy will beat other. However, my "prediction meter" isnt 100% correct, so I will say that it is more about luck in my case.

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Quote from: _act_ on August 02, 2024, 03:26:02 AM

These are contradictory. What you literally means is that it would not work. Betting generally is risky.

My bad for wording it wrongly because i've seen others go for unusual methods in making their predictions like asking their significant other, roulette, simulations through games, pets, etc. It starts well and sometimes finishes with a positive record because they don't bet as much.

You're not wrong, it's risky regardless and that's why we always try to remind ourselves and other gamblers to spend within our budget.

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Quote from: alani123 on August 02, 2024, 02:15:35 AM

Look, even if I was a sportscaster and hanged out with the athletes before every match... I'd have to say realistically that every win in a sportsbook is based on luck to a great extent.
Sportsbooks know there are people that are more educated on some information about certain teams. I wouldn't even say insider information but general small things that only a fan of a team or someone with deep knowledge in soccer would know. So sportsbooks always incude an edge in their odds so they can win either way based on what bets have been placed.

So if you keep winning in sports bets and have a positive balance, it's a combination of both luck and skill actually. Surely to beat the odds and maintain a positive balance in spite of the edge goes beyond just luck, but it also means you aren't met with any big upset in your games, because trust me, these things happen quite often in sports. A small team can win over anyone really with a hint of luck for them too. Their luck could be the misfortune of the people betting on their oponent though etc. So losing your winning streak and going back to red can happen to anyone even after a very good streak.

Bookmakers will never leave themselves without profit. Honestly, I can't remember a single rich person who got rich on their accurate forecasts, but among successful businessmen there are quite a lot of those who are mentioned in magazines with their successful gambling business. This directly indicates that only the owners of this business will earn money, and the players are only those who bring money to this cash flow. Of course, I also had it happen when I bet on a small coefficient with a clear favorite, but the underdog ended up winning the match and I lost a significant amount bet on it. Such stories are classic and have happened to many.

_act_

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Quote from: ralle14 on August 01, 2024, 10:36:09 PM

I'd say it can work depending on your approach, but in my experience, you'll mostly get run over by bad luck.

These are contradictory. What you literally mean is that it would not work. Betting generally is risky. That is why you will see the betting companies making money from bettors. If you see a good match, the odd will be low in a way that the odds are favoring the betting sites while people that are betting are losing.

The approach that I see about this to be guessing the club to win would be seen in the odd. Lower odd means higher chance. But like I said, the betting sites always still have higher chance to win.

alani123

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Look, even if I was a sportscaster and hanged out with the athletes before every match... I'd have to say realistically that every win in a sportsbook is based on luck to a great extent.
Sportsbooks know there are people that are more educated on some information about certain teams. I wouldn't even say insider information but general small things that only a fan of a team or someone with deep knowledge in soccer would know. So sportsbooks always incude an edge in their odds so they can win either way based on what bets have been placed.

So if you keep winning in sports bets and have a positive balance, it's a combination of both luck and skill actually. Surely to beat the odds and maintain a positive balance in spite of the edge goes beyond just luck, but it also means you aren't met with any big upset in your games, because trust me, these things happen quite often in sports. A small team can win over anyone really with a hint of luck for them too. Their luck could be the misfortune of the people betting on their oponent though etc. So losing your winning streak and going back to red can happen to anyone even after a very good streak.

ralle14

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Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

I've done those blind bets back then when I was still regularly betting on every other sport and it's always a mix of luck because there are weeks where the underdogs would start to win half of the time.

I recall having a bit of success with it in Rugby matches years ago, and paired with a lot of losing days enough to make you stay away from doing it again in the future.

I'd say it can work depending on your approach, but in my experience, you'll mostly get run over by bad luck.

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 01, 2024, 03:13:14 AM

People who watch a lot of football will prolly pick the right winners, but long term, he/she will still lose if he/she doesn't get the right odds for his/her bet. The person may know who the winner is six or seven times out of ten, BUT the sports betting service still holds the edge because they control the odds. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That's the thing, if for example a game like City v Burnley, we all know there is a 99.9% chance that City is going to win, but the odds for City to win is so low and cannot yield you anything, if you pick so many similar games, the odds still remain low, and the funny thing is if you pick 6-8 games of such, the underdog is prolly going to win or draw of it and then ruin the bet. In order to set up an attractive odd, you have to add some "risky" games, and that is where luck has to come in for the player.

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Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

I tried out something while I was watching some games in the ongoing Olympics and this is what I did;

I looked out for sports I wasn't conversant with the athletes and didn't know who was better at the sports and did a random prediction on the outcome of the game. I did it for swimming competition and some random boxing yesterday and out of up to 7 predictions I made, almost 6 went the way I predicted it.

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.

I have not tried this in real games that involves using money but would want to know if anyone has ever tried it before.

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

What were the odds on each one of the matches you randomly picked? Because if you only picked favorites to win then it is entirely possible to win so many times just by being lucky, however do not let those results to cloud your judgment, when it comes to sport bets, the more you know the better the results you can get, and the less you know the higher the chances your results match the average odds of your bet, which will make sport betting no different than any other casino game.

coolcoinz

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It's mostly luck, or simply knowing who's better because there are matches when one team is significantly better than the other one. In football you can do a quick check of last 2 or 3 matches the teams played and their FIFA rank. If a team that's doing good, has won a few last matches, faces an opponent that's 50 ranks lower, the outcome is right there before you and the bookies will know that and won't give you much for that bet.

I have a friend who doesn't even watch these games. All he does is bet on the favored teams and he wins more than half of his bets.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on August 01, 2024, 10:55:09 AM

Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

Nope, I won't do it either. You may ask why you trust your luck on casino games but not on sports cause it's different and if the results doesn't ended up in our favour it gives us some kind of guilt like why would I did that? Which I don't want.

But I tried predicting who could be the winner on random game with random athletes I have no Idea whatsoever just purely for fun or did as friendly contest with someone nearby.

Is this not the same as what the op asked?

I don’t think I understood the part of your post I bolded out - the game which you selected the winner randomly did you place the bet in any gambling site with your friend? Or you just randomly selected and also made your friend select theirs without ever going to any casino to bet on it, like you guys just did it and waited to see who would win the prediction, is that what happened?

Personally for me, I usually select random games and just accumulate them and let them run through the week - I don’t use any large money for it and it helps keep me away from gambling since I already know that I have a game running so I won’t bother coming back till the day the last game is being played, I have managed to win a few of them that didn’t have many games in it but majority have been lost.

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Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

~~

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

At least gamblers have done it once throughout their gambling experience, so this is how we tend to have a sense of curiosity to try something new and this also applies to gambling choices. well, if you say random betting from an unfamiliar sport. then you make 7 predictions, 6 of which almost go according to predictions, it is not certain that in the next bet your luck will be like the first time you tried it. believe me, you can do the experiment again. not necessarily, your prediction will be like the first time you tried it.

For the question in this thread, yes, we have guessed randomly about the results of matches from a type of sport that is not so familiar, usually the results are not according to expectations, even from the type of sport that we like, predictions often deviate far from what we have researched and analyzed before. for the title of this thread, for me personally, knowledge is an important obligation in choosing and sorting bets. this is an inseparable part, knowledge is very important and combined with understanding. luck in sports? for me luck is another matter after we go through a series of bets that involve knowledge.

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Quote from: Samlucky O on July 30, 2024, 08:45:05 AM

Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

Yea I have done so severally and it works but the chances doesn't usually come %80 to %100, it's always 50/100, 30/100 and 40/100 the chances are slim. But although there was this one game that I nearly won but it lost by one game. So what am saying in essence is that random game selection is always risky due to High chances of impossibilities. I have equally selected high odd games when I know it's not possible to win with such high odd against the small one. Though sometimes big odd risky game may play but the chances may be slim but if you are dam lucky that week, and the high odd game plays, then you will count yourself one of the lucky winners.

When your picking random games without any selection, do not include multiple games. It could be 2 or 3 games at most 4 picks in a single slip. The reason is because when you include multiple picks in one betslip that was chosen randomly the chances of winning become very slim that it will look almost impossible and you would want to continuing doing that for a long time. If there is a probability that you wont win at all, not even once unless a very big luck comes your way. I have seen people that random picks works for them and they have won but their picks were few and that is why it was possible for them yet it doesn't mean it is not by luck they had won.

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on July 30, 2024, 10:01:31 AM

Quote from: Yucky on July 30, 2024, 04:59:07 AM

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.

If you do random selection, it means the chance from your prediction is 50%.

Random is completely depend on luck, same like you pick the athletes in Olympic games.

Understand the sports and familiar with the players or teams will increase the chance of your winning because you can value the teams/players with the odds and possibility to win.

Understanding the sports will get you acquainted with odds systems, there's no doubt about that, but atimes the odds arrangements can be misleading, we have seen cases in sports betting where a team with a very big odd wins the side the bookmakers give the small odd
I have won some games from random selections, I picked 2 big odds and the outcome was successful, gambling sometimes can be very funny and unexpected..But like you said knowing the sports and players can also increase your chances of winning too

Topic: Is your win a function of luck or how much you know a sports? - page 3. (Read 1206 times)