Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. (Read 14827 times)

Locked this


The new 2021 thread is here.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5307087

That is a good point phill, at these prices I am sure many are doing the same as you are, going full blast with their mining gears without thinking of the power bill since the price is just way too high.

There is also another point I would like you to know about, the majority of used miners in China are sold out, my supplier said at this point he can't find 1000 S9, I contacted another supplier and she told me the price for S9 is $150 and of course, isn't easy to get.

a couple of months ago it was 30% the price now, so it looks like all those old gears are now back online, honestly, I didn't expect that they would make up this much of hash rate but well, could be in addition to some of the new gears and overclocking previous-generation gear, but overall it's safe to assume that the majority of old gears are back online.

So, long-term, are we going to do 2x as far as hashrate is concerned? I am almost confident that this won't and can't happen in 2021, so it's most likely going to be a good year for miners..let's watch this closely.

Well the important thing about mining is to remember lots of gear clocks

a stock s17pro
low power 42th
normal.     53th
turbo.       57th

42 to 57 = 35% jump

I have to think people are cranking gear up and wasting some power  .

I spent a day at my mine cleaning my s17pros because I want them all doing turbo

I have 1 section with 10 s17pros all running at turbo and they do 586 th last wee they were normal + turbo mix doing 540 th so I jumped 8.5%.

So we're getting close to around a 10% increase in difficulty, probably if the pace keeps up 12-13, and the question would be, where is this coming from???
Those are 13 exa, comparing it to the other sha256 coins it's 4 times more than they had at the start of December so if a part is clearly from them there is a lot of it that comes from somewhere else. Old gear? Assuming absolutely no delivery that would mean 1 million 9s that suddenly got plugged now and did wait till now like good children, either in transit or in a warehouse. But the figure is simply too much, and not just because somebody got their hand one one million of them but the fact that exactly till now we had zero increase although the price skyrocket and then suddenly, puf!, like magic this comes online. A 10% and maybe 20% from old gear I would understand if it would have come in batches, but not in this way, nothing for a month and then all of it in a matter of days. Common!!!

With that said I'm blaming the usual suspect, probably Bitmain has finally got its hand on some chips either through the normal chain or got a deal though the ones hit by the commercial war, like SMIC? But that probably is only insider level info.

In the last 24 we had 163 blocks, that's 113% the pace, so we might have another mild to medium increase even after this one unless something happens with the price or the usual China drama.


Final level of enlightenment reached . Congratulations!

I have 20 spots to find non asic gear.  Zero available.

I have few spots maybe 10 to find asic gear all way over priced.  I will not buy over priced gear.

When mining gets super hot it has not stayed super hot for 6 months.

The question is mining super hot right now?

The answer is we don't hold a candle to 2017 mining numbers.

So I sold some coins. I have zero debt.

I will look for a good deal here and there.

So 2021 is much nicer than 2020.

My thoughts exactly, this is why we should always prepare for all scenarios, I personally over-plan for the bear markets more than I do with the bull market, which is a mistake on my behalf that I don't seem to get rid of, so it creates "issues", but these are the kind of issues I love to face.


My plan is not to add in any more gears because of the current prices, I made a good/lucky move a few months ago and got my hands on cheap gears before this rally started, I did hit ROI on ALL of them, excluding those junky 17 series gears which many of them died in a very short period of time.

So the next step with be to mine and accumulate, and of course, sell a bit with every 3-5k up, so 34k, 37k, 42k, 55k and etc are all sell-targets all the way to infinity  , my logic behind this is that I want to be ready for the bear market, after being in this field for so long, I became so FOMO-resistant, it doesn't bother me if I sell and the price goes up, because I know that when it dips, I will be smiling big time.

So with enough cash collected from now until this bull cycle ends, I would sit back and relax and wait for the weak miners to sell their mining gears for dirt cheap, I did the same in 2018 (wrote a topic about it), I got me some mining gears at the bottom of the bear market, they were so cheap then, was probably my best move as far as mining is concerned, so ya, I plan to do the same thing again, not going to pay these high prices for mining gears while the average Joe is doing that, when I see people on mining groups on FB/telegram dying to get their hands on mining gears I know it's a bad time to be buying them, you don't buy mining gears right before difficulty spikes, it never works.

It was easier when btc price was less,
now that it is way up it brings a lot of stress.. 

Nothing like success to stress a person.

complain complain complain lol

 

Mining influencers are.weaker than they used to be.

SO I know that bigtime money investors are the real movers here. Yeah I have two price correction numbers or ranges.

26-30k

Or 70-80k

We passed first level of 26-30k

Does.it mean we correct very quick this week.

Or do we just go on up at to and near the high range of 70-80k.

One angle to think.

Next angle I can triple my mine size watts from 170 to 500 kwatts of power. Hard to get thr gear.
Next angle Selling old gear. Easy at the moment .
Next angle I can sell my mined alt coins HOLD the btc.

I have not been in this good of a spot ever. A lot of decisions to make.

I am a believer in bitcoin, I have always been, but I never stopped selling a good % of my mining earnings, you see the problem with mining is that it's very short-lived, it's not a long term business like most other businesses, mining gears either die or become obsolete in a couple of years at most, so every 1-3 years you need to "throw away" a ton of old gears and buy a new set of gears - this is not much different from starting a brand new business.

The above puts pressure on miners since every mining gear is a new short-term investment, miners rush to ROI the USD investment they put into it, and then you have another issue which is the "brutal bear", miners must always have a good amount of cash in order to be able to re-position themselves so that their mining operations don't come to a sudden end.

Every time the difficulty spikes or price drops, you have to act, you need to either buy more efficient gears to stay profitable or buy more of the same gears to justify the total operation cost, at one point you could have a huge farm that you spend $50 on gas to visit which only generates $100, it happens a lot and thus we try to stay liquid to act accordingly.

Some people might think that keeping BTC is as good as keeping cash as far as re-buying mining gear in a bear market is concerned, but this isn't true, mining gear pricing doesn't work this way.

The good thing is that miners are a small fish in a huge ocean as far as the market goes, the daily trading volume on a mediocre exchange is a couple of times higher than all of us miners can make.

That seems to be the million dollar question windjc - and I agree with your overall sentiment regarding the quantity of possible price appreciation of BTC within the time frame that you mentioned, which would be a mere 14x from here - however, it seems that there is a bit of a moving target in phillip's income projections too, so if the BTC price goes up during 2021 - which he is likely anticipating such, then he would be holding those BTC at higher prices.. so presumably a smaller number of BTC to constitute $70k worth of BTC as compared with current BTC prices or BTC prices in 2019 and most of 2020.

Currently, there is hardly any, and possibly even NO evidence that BTC is making any kind of deviation from its various lead price prediction models - including 1) stock to flow, 2) 4 year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.  So in essence 3x to 10x price appreciation from our current price of $33k-ish seems reasonable in the coming year or so, and surely if we add another 4-year cycle onto that then we have the ongoing anticipation of another pattern of BTC price behavior that could get us another 3x to 10x from whatever had happened to have come to be our top in this here cycle that is seemingly culminating now.

No matter how you slice this matter, it does seem prudent for miners to be figuring out ways to hold some of their stock if they are able to (even if it is merely 1% to 10% of their anticipated profits rather than phillip's anticipation to go over 50% with his preservation of BTC profits holdings), yet I understand that there are some miners that do not subscribe to such a holding of any of their inventory practice because they believe that their price earning model is based on other considerations - and sure they are free to treat their business and their wealth any way that they choose - even if there seem to be a lot of objective justifications for them to figure out ways to hold and accumulate some BTC along the way... my recommendation for anyone still in BTC accumulation phase continues to be starting out with 1% to 10% and of course, personal circumstances can justify going outside of those bounds - but seems to me that each person should at least should spend some time to figure out what would be prudent for their particular circumstances.

To anyone mining this is the time to mine and only sell some of your coin.

If gear/diff only goes 2x  for this whole year. With price going 4x to 5x it could be a very good 2021.

Great because that $70k can become $1 million in less than 5 years.

I am projecting 120k in earnings  of which I would sell 50k and keep 70k.

Or it will all crash and burn.

I don't think anyone is prepared for what is coming.  Mining may have a period of time in 2021 where its as profitable as its been since early 2013. Seems like most new equipment is backlogged. Apple bought all the N5 chips and Bitmain and other manufactures don't have access to chips for months.  Miners have a chance to stack sats over next 6-10 months. Hope you guys take advantage. Hope you don't sell cheap.

Bitcoin at Gold MC is not an if. Its only a when at this point.

I never thought that I would see 33k this quick.

damn!  lets hope for more!

Looks like we are on the same boat for this epoch.  


I calculated the hashrate migration earlier on, looked into all SHA256 coins, and it seems like a little over 1EH migrated from those coins into BTC this epoch, so you are right, it's hardly 1%, but keep in mind 1EH is a truck full gears.

As it stands right now.


The current pace is 9.9% which just double what I initially predicted, . still, however, many things can happen in 7 days, and with bitcoin price at 33k, anything can happen.

Well, it was pretty obvious it was going to happen   Just a few days prior I've said :


Best contrarian indicator ever, says it's not going to happen, proved wrong in days, I need to start throwing a few satoshis at horse racings, looks I'm nailing the opposite with quite the accuracy.

That aside I was curious to see how much of this is luck and if some serious spike happened to distort the projection but to me, it doesn't look like it,  looking at the number of blocks in 24h intervals we have 137 and 149 two days before the retargeting then 159,152,172,166 too well-timed

Quote from: mikeywith on December 31, 2020, 03:51:14 PM

I tend to make my predictions a bit more flexible is that fact that BTC dominance is going higher and thus hashrate from other coins is migrating to bitcoin right now, so all the new hashrate we see now isn't exactly fresh hashrate, a good portion of it was already there, and when those other Sha256 coins start picking up, that hashrate will go back.

You could blame a bit of the growth on other sha256 coins but looking at bcash it has barely 1.5 exa, all its hashrate wouldn't be able to move the diff more than 1%, bsv went below 1 exa at the middle of December down to 750ph right now so even gathering all of of them it wouldn't amount to the change happening. As I said,    

Anyhow, Happy New Year, and happy mining to everybody!

maybe maybe not.  it is + 11.8% plus 79.5 blocks

a day ago + 12.3%. plus 62.86 blocks


At 29.5k price

an s9 set to 10th using 800 watts makes 2 bucks and uses .8 x 24 = about 20kwatts a day. In my garage with 13.5cent power in the winter I would get around 3 or 4 cents heat.

so my power from now to may1 is around 10 cents.  So I am breakeven running s-9's

An s-15 set to low is 900 watts and 18th or  3.60 power in my case of adjust 10 cent from now to may is 22 kwatts or 2.20

so 3.60-2.20 = 1.40 profit on a s15 set to low.

in my garage an s17pro set to low on vnish soft ware is about 40th and 1000 watts. or

8 usd - 2.40 = 5.60 usd a day from now till may

I won't go into gpus or l3+. but they are all good for me in my garage from now till may 1.

So my guess is lots of people turned on idle gear.

Also a farm that was on the edge but turning profit. May now have cranked gear up.

My s17pros  on stock firmware do
42th
5th
57th

If I was on the border at 52th or if it was a bit too hot at 52th.  it is now cold. so my gear gets set to 57th.

42 to 57 is a huge increase % wise  35%

51 to 57 is an increase of 11%

So I can see this jump doing over 10 % on Jan 9

Will it hold and do a second 10% next jump like Jan 22 only if bitmain sends out the Jan batches on time.

After these jumps we may slow.  But if we are under 205T on feb 1 I will be stunned.

I think we will be close to 212t on feb.

I also think this month could be a very rare Jan in that btc could move up over 10% in price.