I am just
wondering ....
https://kano.is/index.php?k=pblocks... how come that
"Luck" ist consistently
under 100% for the last 1000 blocks
AND for the last 500 blocks AND for the last 250 AND 100 AND 50 AND 25 AND 10 AND 5
Whats the odds?
Or is there some systematic flaw in the block statistic or estimates?
Coz we have 2 points of bad luck that causes that:
One really bad at the end of October
and one not so bad in the last 5 blocks.
Even easier to spot is to look at the monthly table:
Only October and February (so far) have very low %
The odds are all shown there (something that no other pool shows) CDF[Erl]
Edit: and 500 being 99.80% luck is like ... yeah so what
Well yeah looking at "Monthly Statistics" its really just Oktober and February ... These impact the above "Block Statistic".
So we just have to hope for more luck and mine on...
However, the 500 one also points out a rather interesting point about the pool luck ...
500 of course includes October and February, but still with those 2 bad points, the overall luck for the last 500 is still 99.8%
Pretty much meaning that ... it's good
There was another bad run of luck in the 1000 to 500 range that pushed that down (to 96%)
But again, still, the long term luck (since the start) is above 100%
The important point to know about this is that, yes even though there have been some very bad luck periods, there have also, obviously, been some very good luck periods that have balanced out these runs of bad luck.
The people doing a runner lately obviously can't see the obviousness of that in the statistics.
Yes anyone who joined in the last month after the 16-Jan has only been mining in bad luck, but, well, that's simply just random.
Changing pools wont guarantee to increase your luck, since we don't know what luck is ahead - it could be good or bad - like any other pool.
