I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll. But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops. By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days. But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.
Sure, bitcoin could fall hard to double digits. Your conjecture is as good as anyone else's, but I personally don't find such low figures very likely. In my un-mathemagical estimation, I place the bottom somewhere around $250. I'm not predicting it will go that low, but that is the lowest I believe it would. Despite some here "knowing" that bitcoin is bust, only time will tell and prove one arbitrary guess more accurate than another. Your reasoning, however, is what I find more interesting...
I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.
Since when does wall street wear their hearts on their sleeves? They show you what they want you to see. Personally, I'm more likely to take wall street's claimed positions and favor the diametric perspective.
The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all. You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no". You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?" You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid".
And these things make me feel even better about bitcoin. Average joe and the smart ass on the street have historically never been good indicators of innovative potential or financial success options. You're referring to people that are remarkably behind the curve in such an extreme way, that by the time they finally do come around to understanding and practicing within a given paradigm shift, the opportunity for financial investment in the catalyst is long over. All those shouting bitcoin is already mainstream, don't understand what the hell they are saying -not even close.
Institutions are already in on it. Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only. Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.
Institutions invested. Yes. Speculators looking for a quick buck. Definitely. Cultists with blinders hoping for unrealistic realities. Of course. Opportunists. Manipulators. Leaders. Lemmings. Look at any technologically innovative point in time in which the human species has created something they haven't seen before, and you'll find the exact same people at the party.
It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.
And that is all that's needed to change the world.