jonkuok
5 points ·
21 hours ago
· edited 20 hours ago
Just to clarify this is for research purpose only, and have been taken out of both the pro and basic level. These are not the entire blog posted and was never my intention to take it out of context. I am neither for or against Martin/Socrates but more interested to understand how it work.
March 19 Blog Post
"As we head into the end of the week the two numbers above the market at 21496 and 20798. A close on Friday below both will warn that we can still see one more low down at the 11880 level or 17700-17200 area. The worse case is a test of the Yearly Bearish in the mid 15000 level."
"Keep in mind that today was a turning point and the next one in Monday 23rd. Note that volatility will rise and then we have a Panic Cycle next Tuesday with back-to-back directional changes Monday & Tuesday. It is possible that failing to close above 20490 today and a close for the week below 20798 will warn that we can still retest support into Monday. A closing for the week BELOW 19784 will imply we should see the 18000 to mid 17000 level tested pushing the emotional buttons once again."
March 22 Blog Post
“In the Dow Jones, we have two weekly bearish reversals at 19,006 and 18295. This past week the Dow fell to 18,917.46. Resistance stands at 20490 and the market must close above that to imply a temporary low. Our technical support for last week was 18747 which will move tp18639 for next week. Penetrating the 18500 area intraday would warn that the Dow could then test the monthly support at the 17200 level. Penetrating 17000 would raise the possibility of a test of the yearly support at the 15000 level.”
March 23 Blog Post
“Today we have technical support at18194, 17959, 15587, and 17533. We have a Directional Change starting tomorrow so we have a reasonable shot that we may see today form at least a temporary low. Looking at the Energy Model, we can see that it has been subsiding despite making lower closings. This is indicating that we are beginning to lose momentum on the downside.
Our Weekly Bearish Reversals reside at 19060 and 18295. We have Monthly Bearish Reversals are at 21600, 19238, 17959, 17712, 17200, and 17135. Penetrating the 17959 level may result in the test of the 17200 zone.”
March 24 Blog Post
“So far so good. The Dow closed above the 18500 level and it held the technical support we provided at 18194.40. The 23rd was the ideal low and the Global Market Watch confirmed it as a Knee Jerk Low. The next target week is the 6th of April. There still remains the risk of another low at that time which could test the mid 15,000 level. That all depends upon the liquidations going into the end of the quarter. We wtill need a closing on a daily level above 20490 to signal this low will hold for a bounce.”
March 25 Blog Post
“On a Daily level in the Dow, we should have a 2-day bounce into the 25th. The next turning point thereafter is the 27th then April 1st with high volatility on the 31st. A closing today below 22285 will warn that we may have a 2-day reaction high.”
March 26 Blog Post
“Now we need to see a closing above 21769 to imply a further rally. To suggest that we are dealing with a reversal in the trend, we need a daily closing above 24605 for starters. To confirm that, we would need a weekly closing back above 27080.”
March 31 Blog Post
“On a Daily level in the Dow, we should have a 2-day bounce into the 25th. The next turning point thereafter is the 27th then April 1st with high volatility on the 31st. A closing today below 22285 will warn that we may have a 2-day reaction high.”
“A closing today BELOW 24680 will warn that we should see lower lows ahead. We have 22637 which is a Bearish Reversal on BOTH the Month and Quarterly level and a Monthly Bearish at 22415. Electing this will imply a test of the 17700-17200 level and worse case into the 15000 range.”
April 01 Blog Post
“Just to make a clarification, the 22637 was a Monthly and Weekly Bearish, the Quarterly lies at 21710. So the Quarterly was not elected, only the Monthly. There were NO Quarterly Bearish elected on the Dow, S&P or NASDAQ. That is only a broader indicator that we are not entering a long-term bear market. All indications still suggest that a 2nd quarter low is likely, but that we should then turn back up.”
April 03 Blog Post
“The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at the 27275 level and the Weekly Bearish lies at 19062. Technically, a close below 20663 would warn that we can see lower lows next week. We have a Daily Bearish at 19175. We still have the resistance on a closing basis at 21470. A closing below yesterday's low of 20735 will be a technical indication of weakness into Monday. Our Quarterly Models still warn of a 2nd quarter low. That maybe it, with the second half of the year improving.”
April 06 Blog Post
“The Weekly Bullish Reversal stand at 27273 area. A lower low will bring that down in the weeks ahead. We still have that resistance at 24600. So it does NOT appear that the low is in place.”
“This week remains a target for a turning point, but we may see a high rather than a low and if that happens, then expect a further decline into the end of the month. As long as this market remains below the 24600 area, then the Dow is not in a position to rally on any sustained basis. We still see that the low may form in the mid-17000 level of down as far as the mid-15000 level.”
“If we exceed 22595.06, then we have a high this week so expect a further decline. A break below 19175 will raise the potential for a new low. A low this week would produce a bounce into the end of the month.”
April 07 Blog Post
“Exceeding the high of Monday implies we should move up further. We can see that by the time we reach Thursday, the technical resistance stands at 23777.96. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at the 27,272.18 level, so there is plenty of room to swash around.”
April 09 Blog Post
“A daily closing below 21690 will signal that we are back to retest support. We can easily test the mid-15,000 level by the week of April 27th if we penetrate the March low. The Panic Cycle during the week of May 18th could be the Panic to the upside if we see the low the week of April 27th.
Therefore, as long as this week's high is not exceeded at least on a closing basis, then we should expect the decline into the end of the month.”
April 17 Blog Post
‘That will be the headlines of the New York Times and others. Resistance remains at the 24700 level on a closing basis for this week. There remains a risk that this week can still produce a temporary high.”
“We still show this week as a Directional Change and this presents a risk that this bounce is not that impressive since we will not even come close to a Weekly Bullish Reversals which are above the 27000 level. This typically implies that the market will make a lower low which will then bring the Bullish Weekly Reversals down to a more realistic stoking distance.
Moreover, it has been pointed out that the ideal low should be during the 2nd quarter which raises the prospect of a May low provided April closes below the 26240 level at month-end. If this week's high holds, the we could fall back into the week of May 11th/18th when people realize the damage to the economy this lockdown has really caused.”
There are a lot of posts on Reddit.
Seems to me that Armstrong is behaving exactly like the 2018-crash. Constantly suggesting lower lows, and then retests, which never came. People logically complain, but then of course he shrugs it off with lame excuses.
