Another event in the cycle may just have kicked off - trade tariffs
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-23/trade-wars-begin-us-imposes-256-tarriff-chinese-steel-imports
Plus, Armstrong won Forex broker of the year for FX Street magazine, for calling the Swiss depegging back in May of 2014
Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 305. (Read 647062 times)
Do you need to buy the reports?
as I currently understand it you can either buy the current socrates report for one individual item(like S&P500) for 2$, one year of updates for one individual item for 25$ or buy bundles with 1 year updates for 10 preselected items for america/europe/asia for 150$ each.see pictures below for an idea of what you get, thought the actuall page layout was a bit different for me.
https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/images/sample/trader/summary.png
https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/images/sample/both/Globalmarketwatch.png
Do you need to buy the reports?
Capital is flowing into the US just like he said. Emerging markets continue to get gutted. USD peg just broke in Azerbaijan and the manat fell 50% against the dollar. Nigeria is banning credit card use outside Nigeria. Naira peg will break. China will continue devaluing. Probably going to go back to 8 RMB per dollar some time by the end of 2017.
If I weren't betting most of my money on crypto, I'd be shorting the renminbi and naira with heavy leverage now. The Chinese government is very predictable. They won't let economic growth go flat. They will devalue their currency and try to export more. It's all they know how to do.
But there's no point chasing 20% yearly moves in fiat:fiat. Even a doubling of the stock market (huge bubble) would only turn your $2000 into $4000 after a year of hard work investing with perfect timing. It's actually a waste of time compared to getting a job and earning $10,000. Finish your education and get a good job. Buy Armstrong's info when you have $100,000
Capital is flowing into the US just like he said. Emerging markets continue to get gutted. USD peg just broke in Azerbaijan and the manat fell 50% against the dollar. Nigeria is banning credit card use outside Nigeria. Naira peg will break. China will continue devaluing. Probably going to go back to 8 RMB per dollar some time by the end of 2017.
If I weren't betting most of my money on crypto, I'd be shorting the renminbi and naira with heavy leverage now. The Chinese government is very predictable. They won't let economic growth go flat. They will devalue their currency and try to export more. It's all they know how to do.
But there's no point chasing 20% yearly moves in fiat:fiat. Even a doubling of the stock market (huge bubble) would only turn your $2000 into $4000 after a year of hard work investing with perfect timing. It's actually a waste of time compared to getting a job and earning $10,000. Finish your education and get a good job. Buy Armstrong's info when you have $100,000
Awfully quiet here. They just released the 10$ Socrates demo. Nobody got anything to say about it?
If I my current understanding of it is correct I’m slightly disappointed. afaik the initial promise was 100$ p.a. for enough information to manage your (average joe)retirement money.
What’s the average (in my case European) Person supposed to do? Go 100% pay per click? Subscribe to S&P500 and dax individually? Just shell out the 450$ for basic global coverage? Not be a twenty-something year old with only a few k in savings to bring the management fee % down?
If I my current understanding of it is correct I’m slightly disappointed. afaik the initial promise was 100$ p.a. for enough information to manage your (average joe)retirement money.
What’s the average (in my case European) Person supposed to do? Go 100% pay per click? Subscribe to S&P500 and dax individually? Just shell out the 450$ for basic global coverage? Not be a twenty-something year old with only a few k in savings to bring the management fee % down?
Can any1 please recollect the latest armstrong predictions?
I didnt really follow and would like to know how exact his predictions were.
I didnt really follow and would like to know how exact his predictions were.
...
Armstrong, while he is not a fan of Trump, understands US fury with our terrible .gov. He also understands what is happening in France too:
"Marion Marechal-Le Pen – the Better Looking Donald Trump of France"
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40454
She is the niece of Marine LePen. Marion is a pretty young (25) lady, and apparently very smart. Oh, and now in the French Parliament.
* * *
While not stated at Armstrong's posts re Trump and Marion Marechal-LePen, when countries get into trouble (or when the Fourth Turning hits), a very typical response is for a "Man on Horseback" to come in to lead, a tough guy (or gal) to take the reigns... Examples:
- George Washington
- Napoleon
- Ronald Reagan (younger readers likely do not have any recollection of the last part of Jimmy Carter, ugh)
- Hitler
- Trump?
When people get fed-up, then things get interesting and/or dangerous...
Armstrong, while he is not a fan of Trump, understands US fury with our terrible .gov. He also understands what is happening in France too:
"Marion Marechal-Le Pen – the Better Looking Donald Trump of France"
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40454
She is the niece of Marine LePen. Marion is a pretty young (25) lady, and apparently very smart. Oh, and now in the French Parliament.
* * *
While not stated at Armstrong's posts re Trump and Marion Marechal-LePen, when countries get into trouble (or when the Fourth Turning hits), a very typical response is for a "Man on Horseback" to come in to lead, a tough guy (or gal) to take the reigns... Examples:
- George Washington
- Napoleon
- Ronald Reagan (younger readers likely do not have any recollection of the last part of Jimmy Carter, ugh)
- Hitler
- Trump?
When people get fed-up, then things get interesting and/or dangerous...
Ahh Now I see what TPTB means by game theory, took 2 months to kick in geeze
In a global marketplace effiency is achieved by linking producers and consumers from across jurisdictions or countries, if one country produced the goods and had enough demand to consume them thry would not need to export. Sometimes they can help their deficit if the goods are rare and kind of like create a tax for their local residents similar to how oil is exported out of canada and resold at a higher price after refining yet sold cheaper in the purchasing country. That is mainly done because of the huge demand from the us that canada cannot provide itself. If the country decided to keep it for itself it would create a recession howver in the long run it may drive people into those countries which are unwilling to sacrifice its resources for the sake of profit.
Here are the facts:
Companies export to countries that pay more for their products or buy more from it -> higher demand
They dont give a shit about local consumers who dont have money to buy it. And also if they dont produce the stuff, they have to import it with extra costs, which is even worse.
How about people start producing, remove the bureocrat bullshit that is blocking production and then we can have flowless international trade. And not just for companies but for real persons too.
It is ugly that people cant trade freely only companies can. This roadblock must dissapear, otherwise we will end up with a corporatocracy.
In a global marketplace effiency is achieved by linking producers and consumers from across jurisdictions or countries, if one country produced the goods and had enough demand to consume them thry would not need to export. Sometimes they can help their deficit if the goods are rare and kind of like create a tax for their local residents similar to how oil is exported out of canada and resold at a higher price after refining yet sold cheaper in the purchasing country. That is mainly done because of the huge demand from the us that canada cannot provide itself. If the country decided to keep it for itself it would create a recession howver in the long run it may drive people into those countries which are unwilling to sacrifice its resources for the sake of profit.
Here are the facts:
Companies export to countries that pay more for their products or buy more from it -> higher demand
They dont give a shit about local consumers who dont have money to buy it. And also if they dont produce the stuff, they have to import it with extra costs, which is even worse.
How about people start producing, remove the bureocrat bullshit that is blocking production and then we can have flowless international trade. And not just for companies but for real persons too.
It is ugly that people cant trade freely only companies can. This roadblock must dissapear, otherwise we will end up with a corporatocracy.
The Us started it with the plaza accord act in mid 80s which would let usd devalue at expense of bric currencies, those countries fell into the trap and now payin for it, the cycle is complete and us will rise while these currencies fall. if they dont devalue they wont be competitive in the global market because they are export based nations. Once us becomes export based again it will shift(unless there is a breakthrough)
That is true however that is not how I view macroeconomics. It's a way to C&C based economy if you put it that way.
The fact remains, why do exporter countries export at all?
Why dont they sell those items in their country, so that those citizens would have more?
In this economy, everybody exports and sells, and in the end nobody gets money except the corporate, making the little guy poorer and poorer. This is a too ugly corporatist theory.
What you need to do is stop export and start consuming (for exporting countries).
AND
Start producing and stop import (for importer countries).
The Us started it with the plaza accord act in mid 80s which would let usd devalue at expense of bric currencies, those countries fell into the trap and now payin for it, the cycle is complete and us will rise while these currencies fall. if they dont devalue they wont be competitive in the global market because they are export based nations. Once us becomes export based again it will shift(unless there is a breakthrough)
That is true however that is not how I view macroeconomics. It's a way to C&C based economy if you put it that way.
The fact remains, why do exporter countries export at all?
Why dont they sell those items in their country, so that those citizens would have more?
In this economy, everybody exports and sells, and in the end nobody gets money except the corporate, making the little guy poorer and poorer. This is a too ugly corporatist theory.
What you need to do is stop export and start consuming (for exporting countries).
AND
Start producing and stop import (for importer countries).
The Us started it with the plaza accord act in mid 80s which would let usd devalue at expense of bric currencies, those countries fell into the trap and now payin for it, the cycle is complete and us will rise while these currencies fall. if they dont devalue they wont be competitive in the global market because they are export based nations. Once us becomes export based again it will shift(unless there is a breakthrough)
Damn it's just sick everybody wants to devalue it's currency.
Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?
If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me
Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.
Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?
If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me
Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.
Agreed. "Exporting deflation" is a truly silly idea. Export your deflation to me. I'll go to your country and go on a spending spree that'll give you all the inflation you need.
Yes but the elite doesnt want inflation in general goods. For them inflation = increasing stock & bond market, which is a pretty silly definition, but that is what they interpret it.
So they want inflation, but only for their investments. They don't want increasing prices for the sheeps because they they might revolt.
Unfortunately, the inflation still spills out to the public, and all the bailouts and printed money is increasing the cost of living too. You cant keep and eat the carrot at the same time.
Damn it's just sick everybody wants to devalue it's currency.
Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?
If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me
Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.
Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?
If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me
Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.
Agreed. "Exporting deflation" is a truly silly idea. Export your deflation to me. I'll go to your country and go on a spending spree that'll give you all the inflation you need.
Damn it's just sick everybody wants to devalue it's currency.
Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?
If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me
Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.
Are these guys so afraid of value and capital? Are they afraid of capitalism (after all they are either communists or corporatists)?
If yes ,then why dont they give me the value, they can get rid of it faster by just giving it to me
Print all the fiats all day, and give them to me, I know what to do with the value they dont want.
China has announced it will peg the yuan to the SDR basket instead of just USD
"Yes, China will henceforth look at the Yuan not only relative to the USD but relative to the currencies of all its trade partners (since the USD keeps surging and on a relative basis, China's deval to the USD means nothing at all relative to all other currencies)."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-11/what-chinas-stunning-announcement-means-expect-much-more-yuan-devaluation
Right before a potential rate rise.
Bullish for bitcoin?
"Yes, China will henceforth look at the Yuan not only relative to the USD but relative to the currencies of all its trade partners (since the USD keeps surging and on a relative basis, China's deval to the USD means nothing at all relative to all other currencies)."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-11/what-chinas-stunning-announcement-means-expect-much-more-yuan-devaluation
Right before a potential rate rise.
Bullish for bitcoin?
Gold, and commodities in general are crashing, yet bitcoin is rising incredibly! Bitcoin looks very strong.
Bitcoin has undergone a phase transition.
Well, maybe. BTC is at $443 or so now. Whatever flaws there are in the BTC model, it looks pretty strong now.
At some point I would like to see Armstrong comment on BTC.
And a good place to put some of one's wealth. The world seems to be getting crazier by the day...
Gold, and commodities in general are crashing, yet bitcoin is rising incredibly! Bitcoin looks very strong.
Bitcoin has undergone a phase transition.
ZH is reporting that there are dozens of stock markets the world over that are down 10% + in 2015, with more than 20 down 20% +. WHile the US market hasnt set the world on fire, it is at least maintaining.
Armstrong sees the US market booming as EM's collapse the world over, but I am thinking that, in comparison, it already has, just that the difference comes from the decline of the EM's not a US rise.
Armstrong sees the US market booming as EM's collapse the world over, but I am thinking that, in comparison, it already has, just that the difference comes from the decline of the EM's not a US rise.
I am not really uo to speed on the most recent financial events because of my trip, but while there may be a bump up (which might be a good one: 10% - 20% or more perhapa), these events almost always spread.
Warning is what we are getting from the ROW stock markets.......
ZH is reporting that there are dozens of stock markets the world over that are down 10% + in 2015, with more than 20 down 20% +. WHile the US market hasnt set the world on fire, it is at least maintaining.
Armstrong sees the US market booming as EM's collapse the world over, but I am thinking that, in comparison, it already has, just that the difference comes from the decline of the EM's not a US rise.
Armstrong sees the US market booming as EM's collapse the world over, but I am thinking that, in comparison, it already has, just that the difference comes from the decline of the EM's not a US rise.
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