Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 308. (Read 647196 times)

Armstrong is a macro guy. he's tracking capital movement of billions and trillions. Something like bitcoin can completely go nuts based on a a few individuals buying or selling 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin. We shouldn't be surprised by anything bitcoin does. It can decouple from the macro movements because it is still too small and volatile. The USD might appreciate 20% against bitcoin because of macro factors that Armstrong is correct on, but we're in the situation where a relatively small amount of capital can move bitcoin up or down 100%. I'm far more likely to pay attention to this macro capital movement stuff when trading big currencies like the British pound or stock indexes like the S&P. Bitcoin can go off the reservation at any time.

could it be that there are some "insiders" driving up the btc price currently, related to Armstrongs prediction of financial/political chaos coming in Q4 of this year (ie right now)?

Just do opposite of what ppl tell you.. Based on that ive been saying $200s were the low and litecoin didnt hit target which doesnt stop bitcoin but may hold it back... Id say we can topple $1k then back down to $300 for litecoin (alt coins) final bottoming.. Thats just me.

But important thing is not to sell btc as it bottomed out, rather to buy alts at the right time. Btc can goto $100k for all i know but ltc will be back.

Regardless of your views of TPTB's predictions, parabolic curves are to be sold into. It's hard to do, but time to reign in our emotions guys and make the right decisions.

Actually reading your whole post twice is scary, the forum source I go to has an huge influx of random bitcoin posters and economic collapse posts, its a stock forum mostly. And usually when those posters or fud arrive the opposite usually happens 1-2 weeks after. There spamming buy bitcoin etc.

when bitcoin was around 200 there were posts spammed degrading bitcoin and reasons not to buy it, then the opposite happend 2 weeks later.

I usually use FUD to do the opposite but I feel your right in my gut feeling, I just wish you weren't correct LOL.

WHAT IF, WHAT IF TPTB WAS REALLY AN AGENT MULTIPLE PEOPLE RUNNNNNNNNNNN

EDIT: if your wrong, its a win for me, if your right, its a win for me senpai.

if your wrong I get monay, if your right your my source 99%

The general range of where it would top was $380 - $440. $380 was the limit stop-loss position assuming I was leveraged short (but I am not and I would have exited my shorts after the fall from $315 to mid-$200s last summer). Above that range then the technical patterns I was using no longer hold. That was all documented in kLee's PnF thread in the Speculation forum some months ago. You can verify there.

As to whether this could mean a low below $150 is no longer possible, Gold rallied then wavered and still seems poised to drop this Spring to make lows $850 or below. Bitcoin is more volatile, so this bounce could be another bull trap and I lean to that interpretation. Looks like hot money in China moving from one sector to the next. But I could be wrong of course and Bitcoin could be on the way to new highs. It is possible the Chinese are going to be speculating on Bitcoin since their real estate market died and they need new speculations. Perhaps this wasn't factored into Armstrong's model as gold would be much more difficult for the Chinese to see the sort of crazy price movement as they see in BTC. But I haven't really studied the volume at all. One would think the real estate market in China is orders-of-magnitude than the float in Bitcoin.

Sorry I don't have good information and at the moment my head is deep in this other stuff. So I will say my stops were hit, but I don't have good research to comment intelligently beyond that.

I will tell you that I am frantically trying to convert some BTC to dollars.

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Edit: this is the wrong thread to be discussing this. I will be copying this post to the Martin Armstrong thread and deleting it here. I will be deleting this off-topic posts from this thread.

I note two recent blogs Armstrong mentions the gold "benchmark targets" which are for a Spring bottom. So I still tend to believe Bitcoin will top out and head back down for a final low below $150. I am taking profits into $dollars now.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38914
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38918

And he mentions again gold has not yet bottomed:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38929

Looks bullish to me.. Similar to last ecm cycle which was supposed to be bearish but made new highs then exploded for bullish ecm cycle.. We made a new high for a 2015 ecm peak so i wouldnt be surprised if it grinded higher for 2 years and exploded up for a 2019 peak in ecm again..

Armstrong also put up this item today, on prospects for property in London:

"London Property Market"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38700

Does not look too good.

There is also a link at Armstrong's piece to that "Money Week" article that goes into the UK property market as well as some biographical information on Armstrong.

Following a collapse of leverage in the UK and elsewhere. Though, with there being such a shortage of properties in the UK housing market, possibly not as much of a fall as some other locations due to comparative scarcity.

I noticed this observation amongst the comments under the Money Week article:

"...Someone once said to me, a person with a $100m net worth, will buy homes in London, New York and Paris, but a person with a net worth of $10m will buy a property in London first..."

...

Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote a seminal book a few years ago: This Time is Different.  It is about sovereign defaults over the past 800 years.  They chose this period as there was good documentation.  It is an excellent book, though not exactly poolside reading.

But, sovereign defaults have been going on a long time.  Martin Armstrong discusses one of the earliest ones for which there are records:

"First Sovereign Debt Default 4th Century BC"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38812

Various Greek city-states defaulted on their loans.  In the same article, Armstrong discusses that even Lydia (the first country to produce MONETARY COINS) defaulted by making their gold coins smaller.  Other powers subsequently (Rome, Byzantium) went on to defaults by adulterating their silver coins.

Highly recommended.

So the UK housing market is going to have a humongous crash?

I see that today Armstrong has a link to a "Money Week" article from July which principally relates to the current UK property market but also outlines his background and the development of the ECM.

"I’m cynical about cycles – but there’s something to this"

http://moneyweek.com/is-the-uk-property-market-facing-an-18-year-slump/

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38700

We've had the opportunity to invest in small startup companies with Havelock Investments for years. 99% of the companies went broke. <1% of them (e.g. ASICMiner) turned people into millionaires.

...

rpietila and others interested in Bitcoin startups may have some more choices soon.  bitcointalker RodeoX just posted an SEC notice that crowdfunding will now be easier here in the USA.  Here's his thread:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sec-gives-thumbs-up-on-criwdfunding-1233139

This might be a wonderful things, both for Bitcoin entrepreneurs as well as small investors who would like to get in at "the bottom floor".


But: investing in very small startup companies is very risky, I have been there and have the battle-scars to show it.

ZIRP is coming to my country too, the currency got devalued 70% in 10 years versus gold, and that was under 7% interest.

If they push ZIRP (currently ~1% interest) , it will be hyperinflation 100%.

It's just crazy, I went shopping a few hours ago, and noticed several price increases in basic goods (I have a good memory and remember previous prices), and its increasing about every 1-2 weeks. The sheeple have no idea what is coming

However the hyperinflation I think will be global, and its coming very soon, so be prepared and dont miss out the lifeboat

My family and I are, and have been for a couple of years now, saving at a prodigious rate.  We are spending LESS, even with NIRP/ZIRP.  So in a sense, we are following a similar logic as the Europeans you mention.

Yes, gold and BTC are a pair of good & complementary ways to hedge against .gov.  Might want to add some CA$H, as in a pinch, CA$H will be accepted almost everywhere (for a while), whereas BTC and precious metals might not.

I am too, with gold and bitcoin as my government hedge. But this goes against the intended outcomes of ZIRP and NIRP, ie to force money to be spent. Probably why most theoretical economics that use outdated modelling (The Fed) are wrong in the wild. Kind of heroic in a way, that the masses instinctively know something is amiss and that crackpot policy and blabbering media cannot change the sentiment. This is also something that Armstrong recognised; that there is no bubble in stocks as Average Joe is still too burnt from 2000 & 2008 to get back in. When they do, combined with the flows into the US, we'll see blow off tops in the Dow (i think 23000 was first target, then onto 32000).

They are saving, I am saving too, but they are not saving in a bank.

Who is so foolish to put all his money in a bank? Especially in a country where the debt is like 500% like in Japan or Ireland, these will go bankrupt sooner or later.

I have money in bank but if the interest rates will decline further (which they will) I`ll get it out.

Here's an interesting one - negative rates in Europe are having the opposite desired effect: savings rates are actually increasing.

This says that the average person cannot be dissuaded from what they see on a daily basis in their lives.

Despite NIRP "household savings rates have also risen. For Switzerland and Sweden this appears to have happened at the tail end of 2013 (before the oil price decline). As the BIS have highlighted, ultra-low rates may perversely be driving a greater propensity for consumers to save as retirement income becomes more uncertain."


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-29/bank-america-looks-europes-record-%E2%82%AC26-trillion-negative-yielding-debt-stunned-what-i

This stands against some commentators who I follow that suggest the EU is actually making the necessary reforms needed to allow it to exit the quagmire first. That remains to be seen, but always good to look at differing opinions.