Topic: Mining Equipment Manufacturers - page 23. (Read 55734 times)

On the other hand the BTC price might rise. Has anyone ever made a BTC Price to Difficulty analysis? It seems they are related

If you have other plans than what is going on in the main chart this could help.

This represents how much you will mine at 1GH in one year at different difficulties, and how this changes as we move through time.

With the difficulty being updated on the 25th the calculations changed a little, so I thought this may be worth going over.

Great to get this cleared up, thanks.  I know people have been asking for a while.

Thanks!  That did seem like a discrepency.

The assebly cost for the evilscoop stuff is for K16 board btw not a K64 board. (I looked it because the ROI seemed incredibly high).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=203682.0;all

FCTaiChi   thanks for putting this information together

I don't understand your Avalon entry. Avalon batch #1 finished shipping a while ago. Avalon batch #2 is currently being shipped. Avalon batch #3 will ship in a month or two.

Thanks, I knew I was missing an important one, I guess I hadn't distinguished between those and the other blades.

Avalon is shipping chips, which will have a big effect on the list once they start coming in.  The 63GH machine, however, isn't being shipped.

ASICMiner is shipping.  It's the ROI that's a problem.

If you own an Avalon that's great, it's going to make you a bundle.  If you have to buy one as soon as possible and get it by December the difficulty is going to kill your return.

I think I'm going to say this on the main page...  This chart is NOT saying that your machine will never be profitable if you come out with negative BTC in a year.  It is saying that you may as well have bought BTC and held them.

Hehe..  yeah, but that could easily change in June/July.

Edit - Well I changed my mind on the time for Avalon's 63GH.  Sorry Avalon!  Think this could be closer.  I could just as easily put June, but at the end of the month I'll be changing a couple other people's so it'll be more even.

Well it's not looking good...

Not a single green one in the list. Unless I'm color blind 

How in the world do they figure an Avalon won't be profitable after a year?    

Whoever made this is crazy lol...

I dont understand the colors. Avalon is shipping (Batch 1+2). BFL isnt. ASICMiner is also shipping. Or did I miss anything?

Oh, and those are missing https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asicminer-blade-sales-temporarily-out-of-stock-204030

Yeah that does sound confusing, I was looking for a new name for that column.

Just in case anyone missed it:

Orange:  untested products, never shipped. 
Red:  those that will not make more bitcoin than you spend on them in one year.
Green:  has product ready to ship with positive 1 year return on investment

Tough time to be a miner.

Now that I downloaded your spreadsheet to Excel, I realized your "1 year ROI" is actually "Profit" as I described above. Dividing this by the original price to get the ROI is very instructive.
Basically, if you think difficulty will rise slowly, KNC miners look best, but if you think difficulty will rise faster, evilscoop's unit looks best (assuming the Lead time (maybe should be called "Delivery date") you give). This makes sense, obviously.

BTW, from the Excel file I downloaded, it seems you could make much greater use of formulas (VLOOKUP etc) to ease updating of this spreadsheet. If you want help with this, drop me a PM. (I'm familiar with Excel, but not so much, Google spreadsheet).

This very good!

OK, so your "1 year ROI" calculation is more like "number of bitcoins mined in a year" given different average difficulty increases every 2 weeks (and your sheet 2 shows historical data for the difficulty increases).

I think "number of bitcoins mined in a year" would be a better name for this calculation.

You then need to subtract the yearly electricity cost and the original cost of the miner from the "number of bitcoins mined in a year" to get the "Profit" which will often be less than zero (i.e. a loss)

The ROI will then be "Profit" / "original cost of the miner" and will be a percentage.

The KnCMiner Mars 6gh/s @ 2795 USD is still missing https://www.kncminer.com/products/mars

May 25:
Cleaned Spreadsheet, fixed ROI reference tags, added date and BTC exchange rates for currencies listed in the chart.

Thanks, many people seem to think I'm saying this is all set in stone

lol  Fixed.  ty

np,
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah8F6pb2lO6AdHlLbWx6YjZhNVV2MDE2VXlQYktxQ3c&usp=sharing

Great way to get a general understanding of whats proposed for the future of ASIC's

Totally unnecessary. It's posted as a spreadsheet on google docs....

Note - the year/hr calc is wrong.  You have 24 * 356...

Sorry OP, that i OCR'd your work
but more people are faster and maybe more efficient

BTCUSD = 122.95   13TCEUR = 92.84   BTCGP8= 79.57   Your   Working   1 yr ROI in B. avg increase:
      Unit   Lead Time 10%   15%   20%


Seller   Model   GH/B   MM   Cost   From   Shipping Chips   
KnCMiner   Jupiter   6.15   350000   6995 S   SE   no   no   no   October   563   209   65.1
KnCNIiner   Saturn   5.67   175000   3795 S   SE   no   no   no   October   279   102   30.1
t13hydra   32 Klondike   2.65   9024   315.64 C Eur/RO   no   yes   no   August   22.6   10.8   5.09
Terrahash   18GH/sec   2.58   18048   6.99 B   ?   no   no   no   August   44.9   21.4   10
Butterfly Labs   BitForce 25   2.46   25000   1249 S   US   7   no   yes   January   9.68   -4.93   -9.2
Butterfly Labs   BitForce 50   2.46   50000   2499 S   US   7   no   yes   January   19.3   -9.86   -18.4
Terrahash   18GH/sec   2.41   18048   7.494 B   ?   no   yes   no   August   44.4   20.9   9.49
Terrahash   4.5 GH/sec   2.27   4512   1.99 B   ?   no   no   no   August   11   5.11   2.26
Butterfly Labs   BitForce 5   2.24   5000   274 5   US   7   no   yes   January   1.74   -1.18   -2.04
evi !scoop   64 Chip Unit   2.15   18048   504.40 £   UK   no   yes   no   August   45.6   22.1   10.7
ryepdx   K16   2.15   4512   258.2 5 US, OR   no   yes   no   August   10.9   5   2.15
riepdx   K64   2.15   18048   1032.7 5 US, OR   no   yes   no   August   415   20   8.59
Terrahash   4.5 GH/sec   2.12   4512   2.126 B   ?   no   yes   no   August   10.9   4.97   2.12
burnin   20 Chip   2.09   5640   100 C   DE   no   yes   no   August   13.5   6.17   2.61
steamboat   16 Chip   1.99   4512   279.18 S   ?   no   yes   no   August   10.7   4.83   1.98
burnin   10 Chip   1.67   2820   80 C   DE   no   yes   no   August   7.25   3.57   1.79
Big Time Coin   90 GH/s   1.2   90000   75 B   US   no   no   no   August   184   66.5   9.71
Avalon   63 GH Unit   0.87   63000   72.36 B US, NY   yes   no   yes   December   -476   -50.5   -65.7
BlackArrow   FPGA 10+   0.16   400   300 S   ?   yes   no   yes   June   -0.66   -124   -1.56
BlackArrow   FPGA   0.14   400   350 S   ?   yes   no   yes   June   -1.07   -1.65   -1.96
ASICNIiner   8E8 • 5   0.13   1680   13.00 B US, NY   yes?   no   yes   August   -8.17   -10.4   -11.4
ASICMiner Block Eruptor   0.12   336   2.6 B US, NY   yes?   no   yes   August   -1.63   -107   -2.28
ASICMiner Blade Eruptor
EnterPoint Cairnsmore1   0.11   850   600 £   UK   yes   no   yes   August   -5.27   -6.38   -6.92
ModMiner   ModMiner   0.1   840   1070 5   ?   yes   no   yes   August   -646   -7.56   -8.09