Topic: Mining Equipment Manufacturers - page 22. (Read 55712 times)

But is there a way to calculate coins per day with hashrate?  None of the equations that I've found work out.  People argue, and it makes sense, that you should be able to take the total coins minted per day by everyone, compare that with the total network hashrate and your hashrate. 

your coins per day = (your hashrate / total hashrate) * total coins per day
There are many other methods I've tried, but nothing comes out even close.



I was thinking of making a chart based on the release dates quoted by all the companies, and the other detective work that has been going on, then add some normal growth pattern of the network hashrate to see what is likely to happen in the next year or two.  I'm sure we could compare an even growth formula to help model the statistics.
At the moment I'm basically using that pattern on my spreadsheet..  would be nice to have something a little more realistic.  The growth could be 13%, but end up looking like 20% if a lot of the growth is weighted toward the beginning of the time period..  like you say happened with GPU and FPGA.

There is a formula to calculate a network hashrate out of difficulty (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty):
hashrate = 2^32/600*difficulty

Or you can try to 'predict' hashrate growth with some formula. I used future value, fv(). It's very crude formula, assumes the same, constant, increase in every step. And we know that the network doesn't behave that way - with the arrival of every new technology (first GPU, then FPGA, now ASIC), network expanded rapidly. First two times (GPU and FPGA) that growth slowed down and leveled out quickly (http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, look for exponential charts).

kncminer has like 30%+ VAT/import/etc fees onto of their listed price.

Thanks!

Oh interesting, if you come back to the thread I'd like to talk about that.  I can't figure out how to make any of the network hashrate equations work.  They're coming out extremely low, but I'm just starting to mess with it, probably a multiplier I'm missing.

We can be both right.
Just that you're calculating difficulty increase, and I total network speed. It's easier for me to think that way.

Indeed and I agree with your Bitfury stance in the other thread

nice work btw, FCTaiChi 

Really?  The projection I'm using shows difficulty 13% at:
537,192,522
around June 6 next year.

Same time period with 18% difficulty gives:
2.06E+09
2,056,082,027.04


I'm not saying you're wrong, just would like to know where the disconnect is.

Difficulty changes every 2016 blocks. How many days it is depends on the total network growth.

Another thing, if we take 13% diff increase (every 2016 blocks), that gives around 2000 2600 Thash total network speed in a year (using future value formula in gnumerics fv(13%,26,0, -110)). Who will contribute that growth? BFL

How about labelling it "projected average 12 day diff increase" (Or "avg 12d diff. inc.") which seems to be how you describe the underlying data?

Did you look at sheet #2 on the spreadsheet?  It would be very confusing if you don't see that there is more than one.
Difficulty has been increasing about once every 12.1 days lately.  The percentage is gotten from taking a whole year of those and averaging them.  So each column represents a different average difficulty.

If anyone can think of a way to make this easily readable I'd be grateful.  I'm starting to think, though, that it's just a complex set of data that takes some time to understand, for the uninitiated.

I think that those averages are for every 14 days. Or?

I want to say, I dont get it.

I have taken a look at the calcs and have still not gotten how you get to the numbers.

Do you mean an average increase of difficulty every 14 days with the %? Or per month? Per year?

I update the OP every day.
Can you think of a way to state it more clearly?  People don't seem to understand what ROI means, I tried to use that for a while.

Did you read above that section where it says, "BTC mined in one year minus power and cost"?
The section below says, "The columns to the right are an estimate of how many BTC you will mine in 1 year minus cost of machine and avg power costs."

I'm not sure what else to do here.


A wash at best it looks like.  *crosses fingers* for avalon chips

if I read the table correctly, for all those shipping ones, nothing is profitable for a year!

You should re-think this area as it is very confusing or at least give a better description. What does a 'negative' number mean. Also what exactly do those percentages represent, what hash rate?

Update the OP to, don't just reply here.

Thanks FCTaiChi for the nice work!

The columns to the far right represent different difficulties.  They are each what would happen at that average difficulty in the next year.

The only problem I have with this chart, is this assumes "no-one except you" has one at the time, and the market is "frozen", in VALUE and DIFFICULTY.

Try making that chart showing...
- Your percentage of "todays market", and estimated percentage after EVERYONE has one of these devices.

You see, the more that are sold, the less EVERYONE makes. We are just slicing up the same pie into smaller pieces. However, our "available" slices decay faster than expected because the "producing hardware persons", are making the majority of components for themselves. (Since it costs them less to make them, and we keep giving them our money to build themselves units for free.)

The price is not rising as fast as the losses, because a majority of the holders and "new producers", do not have those losses. (Though they are freely cashing-in on our losses.)

Even a modest projection of "the current trend", would be a better assimilation of "potential yield"... (But you have to forecast realistically, not with any "potential exponential estimation crap.")

Also take note to notice... "number of transactions"... the less transactions, the less work there is to process. Thus, more down-time for ASICs in the future, then GPUs. 100THs is 0THs if there is no "buying and selling" going on. 0-blocks per hour... (Funny, that will make the difficulty drop majorly... and one person who gets the first order will rake in the rewards! lol... 25 blocks solved in an hour to the first ASIC to load the work... 0 for the rest of the pie, as the difficulty instantly shoots back up into the billions.)

Look at BBQ, Terra, and Min coins to see what I am saying...
With all the GPU's mining that LOW difficulty, the apparent "daily mining value" jumps from $20 a month to mine, to $500 a month... Though, in reality, it is only about $21 a month. Only ONE miner got multiple blocks solved at once, the difficulty shot up, and then no-one found and for hours... Same will happen with ASICs.
http://dustcoin.com/mining

They definitely are connected.  Price of BTC seems to have a lot more to do with difficulty than vice versa.  The higher it goes, more people mine. 
On the other side there may be a little correlation to having more miners, spreading the BTC around and having more stability.

Even if we have high difficulty and you're coming out with a negative ROI doesn't mean your machine won't pay for itself.  Just that it's possible that it may have been a better investment to buy BTC.