Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 19. (Read 50274 times)
The fact that you find my old message which obviously shows my path, you still have nothing to answer on my question. You are crazy about BCN. I also think that you are being paranoid.
The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.
Why are you blaming BCN community every time you have a problem with price/hot discussion here? Is it a rule? Kind of "Have nothing to say? Blame BCN trolls!" haha! I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.
Market does not do anything without a good reason. In case of prices - Market will never put it down until he gets a serious thoughts about it. You should just face it and realize that low value wasn't happend without a reason. It is not an illogical. You get me? The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum.
The fact that the numbers of downloads is mean more than a real people activity gives us a lot of thoughts. It is bad for me that I'm a member of community which is not user-oriented. The Bytecoin community consists of
Why you guys are discussing BCN community in the Monero speculation thread? Does XMR economy depends on it? Or you just have nothing to do when XMR is cheap?
Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.
Since when this metrics actually are not relevant? According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.
There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?
hahaha, please fuck off BCN shills, its getting embarrassing for you.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7823793
The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.
The Bytecoin community consists of Bytecoin premine developers, idiots and the paid shills. I'm hoping the rats die off once Bytecoin drops below 1 satoshi, which will be any day now.
Bytecoin's price is technically already far under 1 satoshi. 1 satoshi is just the lowest price possible on the exchanges, and BCN only has a handful(4-6) buy orders on Poloniex, with the amount of sell orders in the dozens.
That is why XMR market on Poloniex is important you can buy Bytecoin for less then 1 satoshi, you can do for 1/300 part of satoshi.
I think it makes sense for me to sell when my Monero holding reaches between 50-70% of my net worth. Since it is currently a very small % of my net worth, this means also a price significantly higher than 0.01.
Wow, so you are willing to let Monero become a majority of not only your crypto portfolio but also of your total net worth. Does this mean Monero has overtaken bitcoins role as #1 for you rpietila?
Of course. I did it with bitcoin also. If something is so good that, after me investing a small percent of my net worth to it, it becomes a big percentage due to value appreciation, I am not the one selling prematurely. It is a part of the investing method that I am quite proud of.
I have the same attitude towards Monero and Bitcoin. Unless there is a catastrophic thing or set of things that causes me to lose trust to crypto in total, or the coin in particular, I just hold until the price is either very high or zero. If it goes down, I hold. If it goes up, I hold until a black swan happens and it becomes the majority of my nw, and then I diversify.
I have bought a nice stash of monero during the latest downtrend. They are forever taken away from the market, since I am not selling them, no matter how high or low it goes. I know several people doing the same. When monero price starts moving, there will be gnashing of teeth among the people who thought it would always be so liquid that it is non-punishable to sell at the top and buy back near bottom. Because those xmr are gone forever.
Anyone is holding spartan mode until 0.01?
A certain Monero dev who joined me for dinner tonight, asked me about this. I told that I think it makes sense for me to sell when my Monero holding reaches between 50-70% of my net worth. Since it is currently a very small % of my net worth, this means also a price significantly higher than 0.01.
Wow, so you are willing to let Monero become a majority of not only your crypto portfolio but also of your total net worth. Does this mean Monero has overtaken bitcoins role as #1 for you rpietila?
Quote from: rpietila
I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).
This part might actually partly assuage one of my earlier points. It would, if there were two mandatory updates in the time frame considered, with download numbers for both.
As for where they go, I'd guess part of it is people trying out, and not sticking with it. I have a few wallets here that I likely won't ever use anymore.
Once mirrors start popping up, it'll become harder to keep track of downloads btw. I don't think there are any yet.
The last mandatory update was on June 10, we only started tracking downloads on July 15. The binaries that everyone is downloading are not nightlies, they are the last stable release, which is the June 10 one. Also, if it was mandatory updates people were downloading, we'd be seeing a lot fewer blockchain bootstrap downloads.
That having been said, we are moving to a distributed download cluster, and will be using a more feature-complete logging platform (since we'll have multiple, geographically distributed instances of nginx), so we'll be able to weed out things that are skewing the stats once we've rolled over to that.
Quote from: rpietila
I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).
This part might actually partly assuage one of my earlier points. It would, if there were two mandatory updates in the time frame considered, with download numbers for both.
As for where they go, I'd guess part of it is people trying out, and not sticking with it. I have a few wallets here that I likely won't ever use anymore.
Once mirrors start popping up, it'll become harder to keep track of downloads btw. I don't think there are any yet.
The last mandatory Monero update was June 11. It's on the first page of the ANN thread.
Some percentage of the downloads are the same person with more than one computer but rpietila's numbers take that and all other possibilities into account as they are bottom line estimated numbers as explained by him and linked and posted on this and the previous page. I like putting everything in one sentence
hope it makes sense.FWIW I don't have a reddit account and only go there via links provided in bct.
Well I am not sure about all these numbers. Is it possible rpietila got lucky with Bitcoin investing and now believes in TA? Bitcoin made many people rich, many people that never made such elaborate calculations.
I have invested in Monero because it's going to be one of only a few relevant coins and in the next year this will become more and more evident. As I have always said, our competitors are Ethereum and Bitcoin, not clone coins and litecoins.
I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.
I have invested in Monero because it's going to be one of only a few relevant coins and in the next year this will become more and more evident. As I have always said, our competitors are Ethereum and Bitcoin, not clone coins and litecoins.
I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.
Yes, quite right. Markets are illogical because they are primarily driven by (weight of money) short-term profiteers. Price can appear to be moving in apposition to development and utility.
Some good projects/technology/businesses can be killed by speculator activity and sentiment. Most speculators (even in good enterprises) lose money in the long term, overall : that is what funds all development eg the purpose of the stock market etc..
Monero has a good positioning,team and niche. That gives a likelihood but not a guarantee of success.
If Monero is getting 20% new users increase each month none should get worried about it, is enough. Is not something that will push price down or up. Each new month less % of new adopters wil be needed to sustain solid price.
Quote from: rpietila
I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).
This part might actually partly assuage one of my earlier points. It would, if there were two mandatory updates in the time frame considered, with download numbers for both.
As for where they go, I'd guess part of it is people trying out, and not sticking with it. I have a few wallets here that I likely won't ever use anymore.
Once mirrors start popping up, it'll become harder to keep track of downloads btw. I don't think there are any yet.
Does anyone know how to use i2p and is active on there? are there are any forums similar to this with interesting info? Since Monero is in touch with i2p network there should be someone that knows how to do it keeping track of anything interesting said there just in case.
We have #monero and #monero-dev on irc2p. It was being mirrored to and from Freenode, but rfree's bot is hiccuping at the moment. He said he'll fix it when he gets a moment:)
Monero's adoption is currently 275 newcomers per day (2.2% increase per day). This is a very fast adoption rate if it lasts any longer, and this number was taken from the last 20 days,
Where can i see this number? Your subreddit is empty and topics on this forum is not so popular. Can you give us some proofs? The argument is made in the following post:
Quote from: monero
2. We've only recently started tracking our download stats (since July 15th), and we thought we'd share with you some download stats for Monero over the past 3 weeks. Our most popular download has been our blockchain bootstrap, which has seen 41 425 completed downloads in 3 weeks, around 74tb of traffic usage! Leading the pack on these downloads is Windows with around 78.2%, followed by OS X with 14.5%, and the remaining 7.3% snagged by Linux. The client downloads are quite interesting, too - of a total of 15 000 downloads in 3 weeks, Windows again grabbed 78.4%, OS X only grabbing 9%, and Linux grabbing a surprising 12.6%! This obviously excludes those that clone the github repo and compile, which is the majority of Linux users and OS X users (thanks to sammy007's Homebrew recipe). We'd like to thank the donations we've received thus far - it goes directly to many things, including covering costs like the bandwidth provision to help bootstrap new users.
Monero devs have recently published the download stats for the last weeks, and these support markedly higher adoption than the previous consensus estimate of 8,000.
I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past
).So if we take the blockchain bootstrap downloads, the total number of users should be around 14,000.
For client downloads, we are talking perhaps about 17,500 / 6 new users in 3 weeks, which would be 3,000. (15,000 downloads + 2,500 compiled, divided by 3 and further divided by 2 because some of them just go to existing users anyway).
Then there is the change in the exchange accounts that do not have outside wallet at all. This is probably not large, because 3 weeks have been a general downtrend. But I'd still estimate that it has gone up a little because there's more exchanges now. Like 500-1,000.
All in all, my very rough calculation (method 1) gives 14,000, and (method 2) gives 8000 + 3000 + 500 = 11,500.
A very rough average of these methods is 12,500 current owners.
- Since the last calculation in 2014-7-17, the number has grown by 4,500 (56%).
- The internal growth rate has been 2.26% during the period, compared to 5.45% all-time-average of XMR (and 0.6% of BTC since 2010-1-1)
- Since the BTC/XMR has been in a decline during this period, the average stash has gone from 267 XMR to 207 XMR, and its BTC equivalent value from BTC1.35 to BTC0.78. Both have been in a secular downtrend and the recent figures are all-time-lows.
- BTC0.78 is only $450, and declining. This is at odds with Metcalfe's Law that says that the average goes up when adoption goes up.
- Inflation is 21,8kXMR == BTC82. Growth of userbase is 275/day. If we assume that each new user buys for $200 (BTC0.35), the new users will extinguish 118% of the supply. Yes, it has already been the case for 3 weeks that new users buy more than the whole mining output.
- In 30 days, given current growth of userbase (2.26%/day), and decline of inflation (-0.19%/day), the new buying will account for 244% of the supply. This is in only 30 days - the situation will be more out-of-sync when more time passes.
- That all newcomers get their coins + the price has even been in a downtrend, is only possible because of existing owners net selling. Since I know quite a lot of existing owners that have been net buyers, the rest of the pack has to have been selling with both hands to account for both the newcomers and the accumulating whales. (As per my convention, it does not matter who the whales are and if they have bought or mined, and with what equipment - if they do not sell 100%, they are accumulating, and withholding coins from the market, indirectly causing the speculators to sell more).
- When I wrote my last speculation update hardly more than 24 hours ago spelling continuing capitulation, I did not have the access to the information that Monero adoption is actually growing in the last weeks despite the downtrend in price. These numbers really made it! If Monero had 8000 users then and the growth for 1 more year was 0.6% per day, similar to bitcoin, it would have 70,000 users. But with 2.26% growth...................29 million users. This might be a good investment or hedge with some of your bitcoin. At least Bitcoinworld people can always do it in 5 minutes and no ID. This is not to be underestimated.
- I mean, for me there is not much of a difference if a coin has 50% more or less users now. But if it has 300 times more users in one year, it is probably at least 10 times more valuable right now than the current trading range we are in.
To compile and process this information takes a lot of time and I am not getting paid, neither I mind, since I would have done it anyway for my own purposes. I see the conclusions from the nice tables and graphs from my screen. But you don't. The significance of the things presented here is easily missed without seeing the graphs. That is however too much to ask from me. There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.
The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum.
So if i will download your software three times (maybe because my hardware has someproblems or maybe because i have a bad memory) you will count me as a three diffrent new user? If your subreddit and forum is empty, it means that there is no one to discuss about currency problem. That's what i call community.
Actually, it's funny that you mention that:
Quote from: rpietila
I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).
You would still be only one new user.
The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum.
So if i will download your software three times (maybe because my hardware has someproblems or maybe because i have a bad memory) you will count me as a three diffrent new user? If your subreddit and forum is empty, it means that there is no one to discuss about currency problem. That's what i call community.
Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long
Why i have a bad feeling of a trap? And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?
I'm sure that his speech about "cheap Monero" is not a simple mistake.
I've just read you post history, BCN shill. please fuck off
Ooh, classic you. When the arguments had ended you begin to tag people as an enemiesWait, what argument?
...This one: (?)
Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.
Since when this metrics actually are not relevant? According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.
There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?
The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum. I know plenty of Monero people that haven't moved to the forum, because it hasn't reached a large enough critical mass, all the Monero information I need is here, in fact I am not even on one of the Monero forums, there are two at the moment.
Also many reddit forums are dead, the Ethereum one is much smaller than the actual Ethereum community, and the developers only post to the Ethereum forum, so that drove most of the community to the Ethereum forum.
The same is not true of Monero, all the Monero developers still post mostly on this forum, until most of the Monero team moves off of Bitcointalk it'll be hard to get the community to move.
Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.
Since when this metrics actually are not relevant? According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.
There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?
hahaha, please fuck off BCN shills, its getting embarrassing for you.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7823793
The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.
The Bytecoin community consists of Bytecoin premine developers, idiots and the paid shills. I'm hoping the rats die off once Bytecoin drops below 1 satoshi, which will be any day now.
Bytecoin's price is technically already far under 1 satoshi. 1 satoshi is just the lowest price possible on the exchanges, and BCN only has a handful(4-6) buy orders on Poloniex, with the amount of sell orders in the dozens.
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