Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 15. (Read 50288 times)

I'd say we're all sad for sitting around here wasting our precious lifetimes arguing about literally nothing. Does it really matter what thread you are wasting your precious, God-given lifetime in?

I just don't get why people are (still) arguing about this. (Some) People got (loads of) DRK for (really) cheap. (Some) People got (a lot of) XMR for (pretty) cheap. This is fact.

It is clear that whatever happened with XMR is orders of magnitude away from what happened with DRK. However, in either case, you didn't need to be in on day 1 (DRK instamine) or privy to the enhanced miner for several weeks (XMR) to profit, you simply needed to mine (or buy) and hold for a while. Early prices for DRK were in the neighborhood of 10k/BTC, XMR 2-3k/BTC.

It's also clear that Evan doesn't have 1 million+ DRK personally waiting to dump at the "peak" (at least not from mining). He has plenty though, I'm sure (though if he's still waiting to dump at the peak, it seems like he missed the mark pretty badly).

It has become quite the stigma for DRK though, with opinions varying wildly on how much it matters. I'm not convinced either coins' history is very relevant at this juncture (beyond the stigma for DRK). If Evan really somehow acquired 1 million+, what truly is he waiting for? We are talking about boatloads of money (to the average person). Was 25,000 BTC not enough (understanding he couldn't have offloaded all of it that high)? Even if he only got 100k--a somewhat-reasonable-but-too-low estimate IMO--we're still talking about 2,000+ BTC.

It's clear to me that both are legitimate projects. Technical merits are a whole 'nother topic.


It's of course possible I'm still wrong about him. If so, I believe he earns the title of "GrandMaster Scammer", as this would be a Madoff-sized operation relatively speaking.

Interesting.  I'd say it's a sad sign for you to spend so much time here instead of some other thread.  Self-definition by negation is a tough way to live.

Yes, but Monero by itself is worth virtually nothing. Its only because it can be exchanged for BTC that it has any value. So in order to be less volatile than bitcoin (you can only compare the 2 to the dollar when establishing a BTC volatility for comparison), it would have to correct to maintain parity with the dollar every single time BTC moved in price. This obviously hasn't happened and isn't happening; ergo XMR is more volatile than BTC.

XMR may be less volatile over its lifetime than most other alts, but its ridiculous to say its less volatile than BTC. That's why he isn't recreating his thought process for us in this thread.

Great post fluffypony ! It is just insane how fucked up DRK's instant/pre-mine is, when you compare the pictures. Monero had truly one of the best coin launches ever.

Again, great post.

Monero was launched by thankful_for_today, not by us. It only really started to become "ours" on April 30th, and on May 7th the crippled hashing code was fixed and released (2.5 weeks after launch).



On May 4th the network was 20 000h/s (this was when the the crippled miner was in use). At that stage mining on one of my dedicated servers ran at around 11h/s, and an Amazon EC2 c3.8xlarge slice ran at just under 50h/s. Thus the network speed at that stage was the equivalent of 400 Amazon c3.8xlarge slices - considering a newly registered EC2 user can run 50 spot instances (spread across the regions) without increasing their limit, this is still within what we'd expect. And lest we forget that leading up to that point, Monero's hash rate hovered at about half of that.

But wait! There's more!



Block reward stayed consistent and exactly in line with the published mathematics.



And the emission curve stayed exactly as expected.

Absolutely nobody had some super-fast miner from the outset. It's plain, simple, and clear to see that there was no unfairness, no cheating.

The situation on the other side of the pond is vastly, vastly different: [1] [2]

He did explain it in the Monero Economics thread somewhere - I'm trying to find it.

Basically, the volume weighted average price of Monero over its entire existence is somewhere around 0.004. There have been several spikes but none beyond an order of magnitude (10x). Bitcoin has been much more volatile...of course.

I understand you are comparing the volatility of Monero compared to the volatility of Bitcoin during the last 2-3 months, we are talking about volatility of Bitcoin All-Time compared to volatility of Monero All-Time.

How do you feel this way when he can't even answer a simple question like how is XMR less volatile than BTC as he claims?

You would think as a gifted analyst he would be able to answer this right away instead of avoiding the question altogether.

It is everyone's responsibility to do their own due diligence. The mantra here used to be "only invest what you can afford to lose". If someone needs to be protected from mismanaging their funds, they may need to reconsider bitcoin altogether. Cryptocurrency teaches us, quite unforgivingly, to assume complete responsibility for your money.

Rpietila and other observers are kind to share their research, findings, and opinions with the community - this is how I feel. If you disagree, I am sorry.

Somewhat, and who knows maybe they really are that brain dead.

But remember at the time Monero wasn't worth much. It was just a clone of BCN. I remember not even being sure that Monero would overtake BCN, though I thought it a good possibility. BCN hadn't cratered yet, and indeed the best evidence of the premine scam may not have been been presented yet. So Monero now looks like it would have been a great target, but at the time it was just another clone shitcoin.

But we can only guess why they don't seem to have mined that much. As I said you can find all the data on monerochain.com. The charts make it pretty obvious.

Wow, you are _really_ bad at this. You don't have any sort of upper hand on how the alt markets work, you just have waaaaaay too much self-confidence and ego, probably handed down to you from your parents.

How much money have you lost people since you crowned yourself King Analyst? Do you realize most people go to school, receive some sort of training and on-the-job experience before they are given the title "analyst"?

Have fun losing the rest of your inheritance money, just don't expect us to jump down the rabbit hole with you.

I'll have to do a bit of digging in the Monero thread to confirm, but to me it seems that the BCN devs would have been brain dead not to take advantage of such a prospective opportunity.

No it couldn't because:

1. It probably didn't happen at all for the reason explained by drawingthesun a few posts back. Many regular folks were able to mine a lot right from the start and for several weeks going forward. The amount that could have been skimmed off couldn't have been much.

2. The difficulty was low despite a good adjustment algorithm that kept the rate of blocks close to the target (<10% overshoot on the first day, other days probably less). If someone was mining with a high hash rate it would have increased the difficulty. It didn't happen. Take a look at the difficulty chart on monerochain. It barely even budged for two weeks.

3. Even over several weeks the total amount mined was not that high. The TOTAL amount mined in the first three weeks was about 2.5%. Since we know that many independent miners got significant amounts, the amount any secret scam miner could have taken out of this 2.5% total would have been very, very low. Almost certainly well under 1%

That does not compare to DRK, not even close.

And how might we gauge perfection, as it relates to anonymous currencies? Untraceability. If you can't demonstrate tracing a Darkcoin transaction, then insofar as 99+% of people care, Darkcoin is perfect.

Bro you need to tone it down a little, I think this is getting to you in an, you know, unhealthy way. Ugly words like "f*cking" and "moron" are creeping into your posts and the posting frequency seems a bit high too.

I guess you are bashing your keyboard right now? Are you bashing your keyboard?

This is not arguing but a civilised discussion, be noted.
And to be more precise, Risto has called out for Monero speculation in the thread.
It seems you are derailing badly, yourself even.

Just keep those DC bags close and believe for the best. We will leave you alone, promise.

Uh Yea...

No one in their right mind, would buy a 86% premined coin where a few people own the majority of coins. Just like after the hype is over, no one in their right minds would buy a 50% isntamined coin

Mining with a secret, optimized miner over a period of several weeks could have easily produced a situation that rivals the DRK instamine in unfairness. The choices made in creating Monero facilitated this plan. I mean, this is truly the logic of a genius. BCN is unfair, so I'll just clone it without correct a major part of what made it unfair! And you guys call yourselves legitimate.

I was as well as brilliantrocket there when drk when you could buy 1k drk for 1btc - the projet was for a long time undervalued and then it rocketed, which was fine.

the point is: Evan was in a very early stage aware of cryptonote, even before monero started and at first he wanted to somewhat implement the technology due to its superiorty - I was very happy with that solution and it would have probably made all other cryptonotes useless. He finally decided not to implement it, which was in my opion the moment darkcoin died. He was aware of a superior technology and sticked to his half-baked solution for privacy - there are definetely on a technical level as well as on an economic level reasons for him not to implement: obviously masternodes and what he called economic policy would be useless, but he should as well as every educated member in the community be aware that privacy only works when it is as close to perfect as possible.

all the arguments that no one will care how it works are bullsh*t - you are not investing in a f*ckin television or a toaster where it really does not matter how it works. you are investing in a technology where the users are very sensitive to perfection.

I kept a very small amount of my initial investment in drk - but I think it will fail and the assumptions given by brilliantrocket are wrong for the reasons given above.

I'm not sure, I haven't slept in days.

Perhaps I missed something, but I am not so sure he got his economics right, in fact I don't believe any CryptoCoin has got its economics right, but that is a discussion for another day.

In fact I have mentioned that the Bytecoin folks could have mined the other cryptonote coins using their optimized miner. That indeed could have been part of their plan from the start. There is no way to know.

The difference is that the rate of mining was not affected and only a tiny number of coins could have been mined in this way. It is simply not material, certainly not compared to DRK. Monero mined about 0.15% of its supply on the first day.