Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 20. (Read 50288 times)

The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.

The Bytecoin community consists of Bytecoin premine developers, idiots and the paid shills. I'm hoping the rats die off once Bytecoin drops below 1 satoshi, which will be any day now.

The same for you. You just spitting a random sentenses without proofs. And there is no reason to think that you might be correct.



Ooh, classic you. When the arguments had ended you begin to tag people as an enemies

Well I am not sure about all these numbers. Is it possible rpietila got lucky with Bitcoin investing and now believes in TA? Bitcoin made many people rich, many people that never made such elaborate calculations.

I have invested in Monero because it's going to be one of only a few relevant coins and in the next year this will become more and more evident. As I have always said, our competitors are Ethereum and Bitcoin, not clone coins and litecoins.

I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.

Since when this metrics actually are not relevant?
According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.

There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?

There may be a misspelling there, I presume. If you read the whole post he suggests that this will go a bit lower before going up again. I'm holding a good stash for my standards just in case...

I can say exactly the same without proofs (just like you).
"lmao, these numbers (still talking about rptelia statistics) mean nothing."


See?

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand. If buyers turn to sellers (for any unpredictable reasons, but not predicting that they will) the pressure will be immediately negative.

This has happened many times to the most promising cryptos, so just saying, it is always wise to follow current developments.

Does anyone know how to use i2p and is active on there? are there are any forums similar to this with interesting info? Since Monero is in touch with i2p network there should be someone that knows how to do it keeping track of anything interesting said there just in case.

This would take it from 275 users to 88 users, whom are spending ~$200 a day (unless you have numbers to refute that?). This is still 8800 XMR from what's produced per day.

This leaves a net of 12850 XMR that does not get bought per day by new users, taking us to:


I have to make the very educated guess that Risto is at least one whom is purchasing such an amount. Judging by the different buying patterns I'm seeing just watching poloniex, I have to say there is at least two people who are increasing their stash by 10,000 XMR/day .. netting a total average of 20k XMR/day willing to be picked by by these two average people.

This still leaves us with 7150 XMR that are oversold. How much longer can the oversells continue in that case?

Unless Risto was making the point that these people collectively add 10k XMR, and represent only a total of 10k XMR .. in which we would be left with 2850 XMR that is not sold? Sorry, it was a little unclear when I read it.

A net of 2850 XMR / day, at these prices is representative buying of 28.5 people per day. With the current growth rate using your numbers (.6666666%/day), that's still only 42 days away from being sustainable at current prices. Much faster if the price drops (add: actually this would be zero days if the price were to decrease to .003 today ((1-(2850/(12850+8800)))*current price), we would be in an immediate oversold market) - because both the people who are already buying xmr(88/day) will get >100 xmr/day and the new people above the 88/day will also take on more as well .. assuming the rate of average investment holds to fiat of $200 each.

Imo that's the real numbers of what happen with XMR. And it's explain the situation a way better then rptelia's stuff.

I can repeat everything again. Nude numbers of course can show us something and maybe in some cases they can work as a proofs, but right now i'm talking about real people who support XMR with their own time and tongue. What can you say about them?

It is true that not everyone will subscribe, but if you assume that the percentage of new users subscribing is similar between the two populations (the batch of users starting using Monero a month ago, and those starting now), which does not seem like a bad assumption at first glance, then the percentage of growth in subreddit subscribers should not be too dissimilar to that of client downloaders.

Another possible confounding factor would be whether a new client was released/advertised. Shortly after that point, there will be a glut of downloads, not only due to the increased awareness, but from previous users of Monero merely updating to the newest client, artificially inflating numbers (not that I've no idea if this applies in the time frame that was looked at).

Estimating growth using various methods should allow you to get a "middle ground", or at least a better estimation of whether your estimate is likely to be accurate (all calculated growths cluster around a similar value) or not (wildly disparate estimations).

Fair enough - but it is not mandatory for a Monero user to subscribe to the subreddit. All they need to do is have the client, so in many ways that is the most important metric to get an idea about adoption.

Quoting the Monero Missive - from July 15th to August 3rd there were 15,000 downloads of the Monero client.

I think your numbers are way off based on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7822527;topicseen#msg7822527 :

	13.7	10.8	Remark
Reddit Subscribers	512	600	Last week only ~15 new users
People on IRC	150+	157	all time high 180
Forum topic pages	497	590
Volume in BTC (today)	90	92	Poloniex

From this numbers I can only see only 20% increase in new users in last month - less than 0.7% increase per day meaning your numbers are 70% off. Number of transaction is one more indicator that shows stagnation. Trend is not in a high acceleration mode and based this numbers I think we are going to slowly grind lower to the next support 0.0025-0.003 or stay in this area 0.003-0.004 for some time until lower daily inflation create shortages or adoption accelerates (marketing).

Maybe you didn't understand me, but my wondering about reddit and other topics here is not foolish. They give us a real picture of community activity. It give us an image of community, not a number of "how many times cliend was downloaded duh"

This post from the Monero Economics thread contains all the info you request.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8209493

What kind of "pressure" are you talking about? What "pressure" can change situation with XMR from a short term upgoing into long term deficit?

I had trouble understanding this too. Maybe its a typo? If not,  I think what Risto means is that XMR is not cheap short term as there are still some sell pressure that can keep going for about 10 days; but it is cheap long term as the deficit is growing super-exponentially.

Otherwise, great post risto! thanks a lot!


Everything is in the monero missives, i suggest you read them. What you're looking for is the number of download clients/blockchain in order to estimate growth.

Where can i see this number? Your subreddit is empty and topics on this forum is not so popular. Can you give us some proofs?

Why i have a bad feeling of a trap?

And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?