Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 30.

molecular

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Quote from: NewLiberty on October 31, 2013, 02:01:38 PM

I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs

They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.

And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.

I'm so proud I have 3 of these Wink

Quote from: NewLiberty on October 31, 2013, 02:01:38 PM

The folks on eBay are paying US$30-50 each, but I don't know why.

About that: people on ebay are quite insane. One of them payed us €600 for a miner that probably wont ever mine as much as 1 BTC.

BitAddict

legendary

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Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 11:08:32 AM

This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

In this model, the average growth rate is:
per hour: 0.029%
per day: 0.69%
per week: 5.0%
per month: 23%
per year: 1140% (12.4x)

Thanks for the numbers. Is always great to do summary sometimes.

I still think at some point this growing ratio will drop to lower numbers, I think it can't sostain after big investors join the boat in 1-2 years.

NewLiberty

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Gresham's Lawyer

Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 11:49:35 AM

Quote from: el_rlee on October 31, 2013, 11:36:54 AM

Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 11:08:32 AM

You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate..

Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU)

I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs

They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.

Scan the QR and you will see what I mean.

And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.
Agora Commodities and Bitgild.com have them for sale.
Change the QTY to 5000 and you will see the price per piece drop down to where you might like it, as the premium will adjust with the quantity.
At 10K pieces, even better.
The folks on eBay are paying US$30-50 each, but I don't know why.

rpietila

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Quote from: el_rlee on October 31, 2013, 11:36:54 AM

Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 11:08:32 AM

You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate..

Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU)

el_rlee

legendary

Activity: 1600

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Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 11:08:32 AM

You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

vokain

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To anyone, if we could get a graph over actual prices, and then an extension of the regression line past where we are today into say, 2014, I'd greatly appreciate that

molecular

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Quote from: rpietila on October 31, 2013, 10:58:49 AM

Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is:

-2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009).

- Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010.
- Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70.
- Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013.
- The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is.
- Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382.

More long-term targets:
- $1000: May 2014
- $10,000: April 2015
- $300,000: August 2016.

sounds about right. cool stuff, rpietila!

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

In this model, the average growth rate is:
per hour: 0.029%
per day: 0.69%
per week: 5.0%
per month: 23%
per year: 1140% (12.4x)

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is:

-2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009).

- Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010.
- Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70.
- Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013.
- The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is.
- Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382.

More long-term targets:
- $1000: May 2014
- $10,000: April 2015
- $300,000: August 2016.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

NEW:

Trendline update, including analysis in my latest post.

Calculate today's trendline price HERE

R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p.
[chart courtesy to tonico/minimalB]

This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Jan	.005	.005	.39	6.11	16.31	818
Feb	.005	.005	.90	5.06	25.93	659
Mar	.005	.005	.85	4.88	58.14	594
Apr	.005	.005	1.50	4.98	115.09	461
May	.005	.005	6.38	5.06	112.81	486
Jun	.005	.008	18.55	6.03	108.39
Jul	.005	.060	14.10	8.04	83.80
Aug	.005	.065	9.75	10.88	105.80
Sep	.005	.062	5.76	11.46	124.33
Oct	.005	.106	3.30	11.58	156.50
Nov	.005	.27	2.60	11.51	517.00
Dec	.005	.24	3.51	13.33	799.00

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox.
7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 30. (Read 118205 times)