Bagnaia should be very careful right now and even be a rational rider rather than chasing the win.He should not only think about this season Championship but also for the upcoming one next year as another crash will not cost him only this title but most probably he will become like Marquez then,keep falling and crashing and the damage will be hard to recover.
This week the MotoGP race will take place in Japan where it is the host country for Honda and Yamaha manufacturers, but European manufacturers such as Ducati could also surprise there at the end of this week. Because looking at the track, it is very supportive for European manufacturers which in fact always rely on greater power in each race, apart from that there will also be test riders who will get wild cards such as test riders from the Yamaha factory with special liveries.
Based on this I think higher chances to win this season MotoGP are for the runners up as they have got nothing to lose,they are second and third and they can only gain if they push a little,of course they will take such risk as they have not had a bad crash as of yet.
My personal prediction is actually the same, but I look more towards fierce competition this season because Bagnaia will also continue to try to defend his title and continue to give his best in every race this season. All the riders are in Japan and we will see what the weather is like tomorrow for Practice1 to Practice2 because manufacturers like Honda will also work harder to be able to win at home even though so far Honda is not doing well.