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All the conspiracy theories involving Gox show little evidence of being true. Basically none. We still don't know what happened but all signs point to incompetence, which is highly credible based on even a little familiarity with the parties involved.
Dude! When one is doing good analysis, one is not looking for things to be
true. One is looking for evidence (ideally irrefutable) of things being
false. This allows one to strike off hypotheses which don't fit. Sagan would be ashamed of you if he were still among the living I'm sure.
It would be handy as hell for, say, the government to have a situation where nobody even dares to think that the mic on their phone might be able to be remotely activated because that is a 'government conspiracy theory.' The shame of it is that very many otherwise very bright people fall into this trap and remain ignorant of and unprepared for a great many things.
If one is
not willing to entertain all manners of hypotheses, then by logic they will always be clueless unless the truth happens to be among the reduced set of things they already feel is fit to consider. More often than not the truth is something which does not occur to one so it gets
no attention in the process of contemplation. This retards the analysis process and ends up getting people get blind-sided and thus run over.
In this case the
null hypothesis is that the government knew all about Bitcoin and knew that it was being used to support Wikileaks and do an end-run around the control mechanisms put in place for fiat, and yet took no concrete action to deal with the issues presented by Mt. Gox. If one thinks about it a little, that's pretty absurd. (I know...it's 'badthink' or something to consider the government could be involved, but I could not help myself...maybe you have better self-control.) Anyway, this is by no means evidence that the government had a hand in freezing Mt. Gox controlled BTC, but it is all the reason in the world to consider it as a viable hypothesis.