Topic: New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess. - page 2. (Read 8157 times)

3 blocks left   !   



5.07%

IM SHUTTING OFF ALL MY MINERS FOR THE NEXT 45 MINS TO REDUCE THE DIFFICULTY.

ALL 1.5TH/s WORTH!

well it has been 15 minutes since the last block this means kexkey will tighten up the race.  the block has been made waiting for new diff.  7 blocks left lets see what the 15 minute block did to the adjustment.


 that 16-17 minute block  moves us to 5.05%

galdur  5.28%

5.05 %


kexkey  4.77%

really close 7 more blocks.

0.05% lead for galdur

this block is just past 11 minutes block came in so with 6 blocks to go the diff stands at

5.09%  galdur is off by .19%  and kexkey is off by .32%

really tight.  korbman  predicts 5.30% and is off by only .21%  but diff must go past 5.29% to allow him to win.  a dead heat could happen with a few faster blocks if diff goes to 5.29% it is a deadheat.


Down to 5 blocks we are at a diff of 5.10%     galdur is off by .18%  kexkey is off by .32%   korbman is off by .20%  but needs 5 really fast blocks since diff need to get to 5.29 for him to tie.



some very   quick blocks just popped.

Ah, excitement at the finish line. Excellent 

and bang a quick block brings back to 5.08%   what a contest!

8 blocks left!

galdur has regained his edge!


Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,711,964,411 (+5.08%)
Adjust time:   After 8 Blocks, About 1.2 hours
Hashrate(?):   331,501,878 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.3 minutes
Updated:   17:35 (2.7 minutes ago)

  with under 10 blocks to go


 galdur +5.28%

(+4.99%)

Kexkey +4.77%


very close   Kexkey  is now closer

 bitcoinwisdom is shifting lower   now 4.99%    !

13 blocks left

(+5.10%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,723,315,735 (+5.10%)
Adjust time:   After 13 Blocks, About 2.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   332,003,964 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.3 minutes
Updated:   16:35 (2.2 minutes ago)




I would think

Korbman +5.30%

galdur +5.28%

(+5.10%)

Kexkey +4.77%



galdur is looking good.

 Kexkey  could win with a few long blocks.


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/     is saying it will be 4.99%  so do not rule out Kexkey

My prediction +3.95

Edit : i already entered sorry

Well, for some reason BTC hasn´t seemed to be on the verge of the next collapse for a whopping month now so I suspect that diff. increase will be in the plus next term. Maybe similar to this one, five plus or minus.

my predication for the next jump is -1.11%

I like to get it in as early as i can.  if we do it by sections of   .25% each  I pick the section that includes -1.11%.

As of when there were 45 blocks to go, there was 1971 blocks found since the last difficulty change. As of 1971 blocks, it should have been ~328.5 hours since the last difficulty change but instead it was roughly 312.37 hours. If the network were to find 45 blocks in the next 38 minutes (so 2016 blocks were to be  found in 313 hours since the last difficulty change, then the difficulty would go up by a total of 6.84%, so it would go up by 1.93% of what it otherwise would have. This is the max possibility, if that many blocks were to be found very much faster then that then a good number of them would likely end up orphaned. 

Estimated next difficulty change in 6.8 hours : +4.91%

:-)

I wonder what is the max possible/plausible change (positive or negative) within a 7 hour range.

We are certainly not going to have a rollover this time.

45 blocks to go!

A4Tech +5.60%
Korbman +5.30%
galdur +5.28%

(+5.11%)!!

Kexkey +4.77%
SimplisticStu +4.55%
HerbPean +4.20%
notlist3d +4.15%
geforcelover +4.12%

8 people are within 1%

some ties are possible such as 5.29 or 5.45  or 4.66 all result in a tie.




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,725,878,914 (+5.11%)
Adjust time:   After 45 Blocks, About 6.9 hours
Hashrate(?):   338,036,986 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.1 minutes
Updated:   11:25 (2.9 minutes ago)


Bitcoincharts is pushing a   (+5.39% )   jump, but  If I was to pick from the 8 above I would pick galdur as the favorite.

Ah, Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,801,837,830 (+5.28%) ATM  Grin

 well you are in contention for sure.
  
@ ume ending date is the 22nd of feb or the 23rd of feb all depends on when the next adjustment happens .


  there are 182 blocks left to go.

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,732,241,528 (+5.12%)
Adjust time:   After 182 Blocks, About 1.2 days
Hashrate(?):   350,466,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.2 minutes
Updated:   14:5 (4.5 minutes ago)


It will post on the  bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty page in 23 to 38 hours:


Difficulty History

Date                   Difficulty          Change     Hash Rate
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s



@ all top contenders

 
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/        says (+4.17%)

Blocks   344555
Total BTC   13.864M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   46309138251 in 181 blks
 
Network total   311624.155 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.88 / 613 s


so if it is 4.17%


notlist3d +4.15%
HerbPean +4.20%
SimplisticStu +4.55%
geforcelover +4.12%


are also very close.

If I recall correctly the number from bitcoinwisdom is the official number.

All looks close but no ending date !

Looks good looks good ;-)