Topic: New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess. - page 5. (Read 8101 times)

will post again in a day  if you have until the 15th we will get a better idea of what the  numbers are.  As i said the turnover day was the 9th and it was  exactly 20 blocks over normal  some of that high figure belongs to this adjustment so my -2.95%
 
could be   -1.23% could even be -0.5% . With the time difference and the time the adjustment was made and the exact number of blocks from the 164 that count here   the range is -2.95% to +0.25 %   In one case I average in 163 of the split blocks on the 9th  in the other case I average in 1 block from thst day.

this moves the -2.95%   a lot if  you count 163 of those blocks.  or if you count only 1 block fro

m that day the -2.95% is very close to exactly accurate.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  >>>>  (+4.24%)   way off but way off for exactly now



Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,340,216,328 (+4.24%)
Adjust time:   After 1359 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):   311,868,296 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> key number shows negative as of now
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:25 (1.4 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.148%) much closer to the new website


Blocks   343378
Total BTC   13.834M
 
Difficulty   44455415962
Estimated   44389043106 in 1358 blks
 
Network total   329771.107 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.22 / 579 s   



It would be funny if my -1.11% ends up well.  we get to see at least 1 more days info to see if the down trend continues.

+ 2.23 %

is my guess!

+3.22%

My guess is 0.01%

It's not looking like a horrible jump:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,440,075,174 (+4.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1417 Blocks, About 10.0 days

As far my guess I will go with + 4.15

Well i think 5.6%

Don't forget the deadline.

Right now at the moment its too early too tell. One or two days doesn't make a difference. Need a wait a week or so to see what will happen.

0% change.

I would say that either a major player or a number of smaller players likely turned off their equipment after the last difficulty increase.

The rolling 504 block estimated hashrate has been going above and below the 2016 block hashrate as of the last difficulty change, likely to the point that it is just "luck noise"

I don't really see many more miners bring brought online, however I do see some at home miners taking their equipment offline as they start to get their electric bill and see that what they recently mined does not cover their bill so they will take them offline.

My guess is -3.55%

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144
feb  11th  159 blocks   norm is 144
feb  12th  124 blocks norm is  144


so running 3 day total is  415  3 day normal is 3 x 144 =  432   so for the 3 full days we are (-3.93%)


Now I am not saying a player like ghash is turning 30ph on and off and we are seeing diff seesaw due to this.  I am saying it has become a financial possibility that can work.

A more likely reason for see-saw action is many people are on the fence with diff and btc rate.  last adjustment made mining a loser and people have shut off starting this first couple of days. the one up day could be variance.  Are we  in the end game for asic's will we get a 0.1watt unit no not unless serious money and demand drives the btc price to 500 or 800 usd.

The new site I post above I like quite a bit.

  I still refer to www.bitcoincharts.com and www.bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

maybe my  -1.11 percent  will be a nice guess I suppose I could give half to seriouscoin

You might be right. I'm already regretting my guess.

But if Miles is wrong this time, I can try again with our other cat next time.

That's what I would call an unreliable witness. We all know that torture and bribes (not sure which category "fishy" falls into) have never produced credible intelligence .

I guess -5.5%

edit: if I win my address is 1DKjc5PSJ97G1k4tutURsywBTMoujfZujr

-2.71%

Miles (the oldest of our two cats) says -0.2%. Hardly any change at all...

I had to use a lot of fishy treats to get this out of him. Hope he's right 

I think +1.5%

Ah, sorry about that. I've got galdur on ignore. I'll change to: +5.30%

addin my guess

+1.27%

And to try and stay on topic: after nearly 500 blocks the average 512 504-block time is 9.9 minutes (about 1% faster than target), which means the hashrate is almost unchanged since the start of the cycle.