Topic: New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess. - page 4. (Read 8118 times)

The estimation is always highly influenced by the previous Diff change (previous 2016 blocks) Meaning that if the previous diff was 10%, the estimation will be way higher even if the generation time is 10 min since the change of diff.

The estimation will be greatly close to the reality 2 or 3 days just before the end of the current diff unless a massive change of Hashrate appears.

I'll bet on an increase:

+1.8%

yeah 0.25%  is 4 per 1%  so -15% to +15%  is 120 ranges  of 0.25%  that is a manageable max of contestants.

we could go tighter     -10% to + 10%   which is 80 ranges 

  Also allows for  a reasonable chance someone picks it.
  Also makes you want to get your pick in early. No one would want to pick   +14.76 to + 15.00    or -15.00 to - 14.76


I am sticking to -1.11% for this one.

I'm going to stick with what I had.  If I'm right, I get a small offset to my lost revenue, if I'm wrong I make more next diff.

I bet on +1.05 %

If additional entries are still being accepted then I would guess -0.01% 

No. The rules state that people can make predictions until Suchmoon has posted a list of who guessed what change ;0

Predictionhas been ended i think dude ! The op selected the users who posted in time

my guess is -2%

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I do like the idea of taking away the 1% rule and then adding in a smaller range that someone would "own". It would probably make it so the bounty would roll over more often which would result in higher interest in these threads

+2.69%

I will be extending the bounty deadline by 12 hours (will update the rules post accordingly). I happen to be in the wrong time zone now and will be off the grid most of Sunday. I won't be able to announce the final list until about 4 AM UTC Monday, so it's only fair to give you guys and gals more time to get in.

As for the rules, sniping, etc - I really really don't want to change anything but can see some benefit in rewarding early birds too. I'll think about it. Maybe we can pick intervals (0.25% perhaps?) and have no 1% rule and no "nearest wins" - you'd have to guess the correct interval, no exceptions. This should be simple enough yet fair. Thanks for the ideas. Keep them coming.

You are right bitcoinwisdom does tend to have what appears to be a very strange prediction at times, however I don't think it is accurate to say it is always wrong, I think they have an algorithm that relies on a certain set of assumptions that are not always correct.

I think a falling price is causing more S3 owners to turn off their machines then a low price. I don't think many owners want to be selling ~$1.25 worth of bitcoin per day per S3 if they were to leave it on, they would probably want to sell $37.5 worth of bitcoin once per month (per S3) as selling that small of amount every day is almost not worth their time (assuming their intention is to sell the entire amount to cover their electric/hosting costs)

yeah but it is pretty much worthless number under current mining conditions.  that huge piece of hash power  (all s-3's) is around 50ph  and the best explanation I see is owners of s-3's simply turn them on and off based on diff/price numbers.

 really makes for tough guess at diff movement.  you noted price jumped to 250 from 225 and maybe a lot of s-3 owners power back on.  I agree.   that is bound to happen.  but that www.bitcoinwisdom number does not reflect it to well.  not to say they are wrong since they are looking ahead.


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

in a few hours they will give feb 14 block total   this will allow the current standing of diff for the first 720 blocks.    maybe -2 % or -1% .

  then you need to think will price jump from 250 to 275 or drop to 225. all will be a big factor with s-3 owners all over the world.

I am going to be interested to see how the recent ~17%+ increase in the price of bitcoin is going to affect how much new equipment the manufacturers build and how many people bring their miners back online. Although this may affect the following difficulty calculation more then this one.

bitcoinwisdom is now showing an estimated +4.15 change with a 1, 3, and 6 block time of 10, 30.1 and 60 minutes respectively

yeah I sold a few sp20's off today.  basically to get ready for summer.  meanwhile it is 19f outside my home, but 9 sp20's 1 s-5 and 1 avalon 4.1 will be way over my heat envelope.

 So an early start is okay .

I like your idea of early guess getting more space.  I think first day or two really reward them for such a early guess.  By 1/2 of time over have it maybe 1/4 or even less of the range early guess gets.

On price of BTC past few day's have been good.  I am happy to see a increase.  I did finally get new homes for my S3's.   Also under clocked my SP20's.  I think I am set for a while now.  Did it a little earlier then I planned but decided to get ready a little for summer mining.  Winter I went a lot larger then I care to do during summer time.   

well it is a bit different .  price is right has 4 people guessing   and over loses.

we have 20 or more guessing and over can win.

so if it is 1.01  and you have 1.2 and no one is closer you win.

a person can be burned  here with  

2.01
2.02----------------this person would be burned
2.03



maybe next contest we figure a little bit different  method    you make a guess of a range.  

   2.00-2.10  
   2.11-2.20
   2.21-2.30

we make a list of ranges from -15.00 to + 15.00       this limits contestants :

  if  we allow .10 as the range    there are 300 ranges of .10 between -15.00 to +15.00
 if we allow  .15 as the range  there are 200 ranges  of .15 between -15.00 to + 15.00
if we allow .20 as the range      there are 150 ranges  of .20 between -15.00 to + 15.00
 if we allow .30 as the range      there are 100 ranges  of .30 between -15.00 to + 15.00

It encourages an early guess  since really high or really low may be bad guesses.

You know a football grid for the superbowl has 100 boxes  .  This is a just woke up and had 2 cups of coffee idea so it looks pretty good to me.

Back to the actual numbers

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+4.33%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,379,010,867 (+4.33%)
Adjust time:   After 1282 Blocks, About 8.9 days
Hashrate(?):   321,113,649 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:5 (2.0 minutes ago)

Thanks man, less than a quarter of a percent away from my guess 
Just like the guy who bids $1 on the price is right...